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Emma Peel
06-16-2010, 11:06 PM
Working Theories Thread

Here's the place to bring your theories and more complex analysis together using the facts and your powers of reasoning. Make Deductions Inductions, Intuitions, Speculations, Assumptions, and Hypothesize the day away. Problem Solve, Postulate, Percolate, Incubate, Ruminate, Mull your theories over. Expand them, refine them, have them tested, and best of all, get some friendly feedback from your fellow WSers. Theory & Analysis here presumed to be of speculatory nature. Please speculate responsibly and within TOS.

:detective: :waitasec: :bow: :idea: :thumb: :clap: :online: :curtsey: :aktion033: :shakehead: :read: :snooty: :crazy: :blushing: :yes: :Jumpie: :talker: :highfive: :toast:
:woohoo:

Notes:
This is not a general discussion thread. lf it becomes one, our theory thread might have to go away.

So, if you choose to post here, please know that:
1) you are either posting your own developed idea/theory/problem analysis for others to comment on, or
2) you're commenting on a theory that's been posted.

If you like some ideas from a previous theory, but want to post an entire theory of your own, you can credit the previous poster for helping you shape your ideas.

JBean
06-16-2010, 11:09 PM
I have to warn you that threads like this turn into general discussion.
so please post your theories and then move on. If this turns into a GD thread it will be closed.

If you are unable to post your theory because you suspect the family,do the best you can.

DairyGirl
06-16-2010, 11:14 PM
Yeah, well, I don't think I can post my theories because, well, because.

scandi
06-16-2010, 11:21 PM
Coming here to read the first post by Emma was a true delight !!!

I respectfully can't post a theory yet and am waiting for the case to develop to see if I'll change my mind.

Emma Peel
06-16-2010, 11:23 PM
I have to warn you that threads like this turn into general discussion.
so please post your theories and then move on. If this turns into a GD thread it will be closed.

If you are unable to post your theory because you suspect the family,do the best you can.

Good point JBean. I was wondering if you'd worry about this.
I just like to have a place to pull many thoughts all together and not be off-topic.
I edited the thread lead post to give a little bit of guideline.

pufnstuf
06-16-2010, 11:26 PM
Respectfully, I will share my theory at such time that I am able to do so within the TOS.

But I am VERY eager to hear what others think. So thanks in advance for anyone who posts theories.

Wendy101
06-16-2010, 11:29 PM
Well postpartum enters my mind in this case.

I read the information the astro charts provide, that is where the though entered my head.

LOL.. I am too chicken to post anything on here yet, I'll wait for a few more theories to come on, so I can see how detailed the theories get...

Calliope
06-16-2010, 11:38 PM
(copying this over from the last thread because I'm too lazy to re-type it)

IMO, a kid in school is going to feel safe (as well they should!).

So here we have a situation where there are many kids, parents, volunteers and staff milling about. Kyron sees these "strangers" and even though he doesn't necessarily know them, logic would tell him that these people are "ok". After all, the school itself is allowing them to be around and interact with all the kids. A perfectly reasonable assumption on his part.

Knowing he's inside a safe place, surrounded by people he knows are there to watch out for him, his guard is going to be way down. In an environment like this, I have no doubt most adults wouldn't consider the 'stranger danger' element as they would elsewhere (which btw could explain why it seems no one noticed anything unusual). So why should we expect a 7 year old child to be any more vigilant??

Given these circumstances, someone with intentions on taking a child would already have a huge advantage, for not only the kids but adults as well would never in a million years expect that something like this could happen.

Now all that is left is for that predator to find a vulnerable child, one who is separated from the group, away from an adult, close to an exit.

------

I believe it was a child predator, someone who is NOT an RSO (i.e. has never been caught). Someone who is either connected to the school (however peripherally that may be) and/or the neighborhood. Possibly even had children or siblings who attended the school, maybe even a former student. Whoever this person is, I think he caught kyron separated from others and close enough to the exit that he was able to lead him out of the school without being noticed (obviously).

Because of what I wrote above (that Kyron would have felt secure in this environment), I don't think he would have fought off this person until it was far too late. I also don't believe he would have necessarily had to recognize this person in order to be lured away. I won't repost what I put on here last night; it creeped me out just to type it. Suffice to say, I can see where someone could very easily entice him to open the exit door and even follow to a waiting vehicle.

Now this assumes that Kyron wasn't a specific target, meaning someone didn't go there specifically to take him, just a vulnerable child. IF he was targeted by someone who knew him and was going after him, my thoughts are that it's someone connected to his hobbies, activities, clubs, etc., OR that of his parents or brother.

I realize this isn't a popular theory, but to me it's the one that makes the most sense.

txsvicki
06-17-2010, 12:33 AM
My theory is this case is the same with Haleigh's. Listen to the child. I believe Kyron's friend who said that he was headed to look at another exhibit and was alone. I believe someone who blended in pretty well was at the school and either had their plan to abduct Kyron or saw an impulsive immediate opportunity. Kyron must have been lured out an exit to a nearby vehicle or he could have even been lured by being told to walk out to the edge of the schoolgrounds or something. There could be a very good reason (not that they need one) that the family is not giving interviews and talking constantly to the media. Maybe they do suspect someone who had befriended the family or acted just a little too interested in kids.

gwenabob
06-17-2010, 12:33 AM
OK, here is a portion of my working theory, and I will try to keep to the TOS.

I think there was no electric exhibit at the school function--at least if there was, it was not the one Kyron was referring to. I think someone he knew told him he or she would take him to see something cool, it would only take a minute, and they would be right back. I think he was told to wait by that exit while someone got into their car in the parking lot, and wait until he saw that certain car out front, then to go to it.

I do not think this was random, or a crime of opportunity. He, and he alone, was targeted by someone he knew. Why? Still working on multiple theories.

Claycat
06-17-2010, 12:45 AM
Well, it's kind of strange to have a theory thread when you can't state your theory because your theory involves family and you can't talk about family! So, I guess all I can say is I don't believe this was an abduction by a stranger or friend.

belimom
06-17-2010, 12:46 AM
Sitting on the fence between two theories...

1) I think the most likely... but don't really know how to say it within TOS.

2) Peripheral school staff/person (a close second to #1 above). A mix of opportunity vs premeditated. Maybe had their eyes on him for awhile (predators prey upon the weak, such as smaller stature for his age), and possibly others. But then here he came bounding down the steps to look at something. And, hmmm, the perp just saw his SM leave, and teacher's not around until 10:00am, so no one is really watching him. Maybe the hall iwas empty. So either he was grabbed on the spot or lured outside. He may have even been kept inside for awhile, until the talent show. Because then, EVERYONE would be in one place, and it would be easier to leave with no one watching, rather than in the morning with parents coming/going, folks milling around.

Wow. Typing out #2 gave me the creeps...

(I have to admit, I hope it's #1. That's an awful thing to think, I know. But I say that ONLY because for Kyron I think it would mean he wasn't....abused....in certain ways, as probably with #2... :() <-- And typing that just made me very heartbroken and sad.

TrialAddict
06-17-2010, 12:53 AM
someone told him to go to the car and he/she would be right there?

Pensfan
06-17-2010, 12:54 AM
IMO, this crime was premeditated.
-The last school bell to start the day rang at 8:45 am on the day Kyron went missing. School didn't start this day until 10:00 because of the annual Science Fair. SM brought Kyron to school excessive early. Some references say she brought him to school before 8:00 am. Other references state that they arrived shortly after 8:00am. This is two hours before classes start and the attendance will likely be taken. On the supposedly very busy, Science Fair Day, the photo shows that the classroom is desolate. (There were very few witnesses because they arrived excessively early.)

--SM brings a camera to take a photo of Kyron and his art project. This is her proof that he attended the Science Fair. SM posts this photo on a well-known social network site ASAP after she returns to her home on this day.

-SM makes certain to leave more evidence that Kyron was at school. His book bag and coat are left in his classroom.

-SM sends the teacher an email about an unnecesary topic this same afternoon to use as evidence that she had no idea her stepson was missing. It may also have been used to determine if any suspicions had been raised about Kyron's absence.

6angels
06-17-2010, 12:58 AM
I do believe the person that took Kyron was close with him but not biologically related to him. I also don't think it was a "plan" but happened after something that happened at the school. I am just not sure what yet.

6angels
06-17-2010, 01:01 AM
IMO, this crime was premeditated.
-The last school bell to start the day rang at 8:45 am on the day Kyron went missing. School didn't start this day until 10:00 because of the annual Science Fair. SM brought Kyron to school excessive early. Some references say she brought him to school before 8:00 am. Other references state that they arrived shortly after 8:00am. This is two hours before classes start and the roll will likely be taken. On the supposedly very busy, Science Fair Day, the photo shows that the classroom is desolate. (There were very few witnesses because they arrived excessively early.)

--SM brings a camera to take a photo of Kyron and his art project. This is proof that he attended the Science Fair. SM posts this photo on a well-known social network site ASAP after she returns to her home on this day.

-SM makes certain to leave more evidence that Kyron was at school. His book bag and coat are left in his classroom.

-SM sends the teacher an email about an unnecesary topic this same afternoon to demonstrate that she had no idea her stepson was missing.
We don't know what time the school said the event was open. They may of said you can set up from XYZ and or the view other events from 8 to 10. am. Until the school or someone that knows tells us what time it was open we will have no idea.

miabellamoure
06-17-2010, 01:01 AM
Hi Miabellamoure -
Just responding to let you know that this is a theory thread - it's not for listing questions. You can ask your questions on the question thread - and there's a very good chance posters will help you with the question you have. Doing so here would bring us off-topic. Here's a link to the Kyron Question Thread: Kyron Horman Q&A ***No Discussion*** - Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community (http://www.websleuths.com/forums/showthread.php?t=106888)

Also please read the moderator's first post in the thread labeled "Read Here First". Here's a link: Read here first - Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community (http://www.websleuths.com/forums/showthread.php?t=106880)

When your questions are answered and you have formulated a cohesive theory please come back and post it, within TOS.

Sorry about that...if you'd like, please delete my posts above or if you'd like to move them...no problem!

Wendy101
06-17-2010, 01:04 AM
I do believe the person that took Kyron was close with him but not biologically related to him. I also don't think it was a "plan" but happened after something that happened at the school. I am just not sure what yet.


I think that a person who was close to Kyron (but not biologically related) harmed him and Kyron was going to tell...... as for taking him... I haven't thought about that yet...

I guess this is the baseline for one of my motives.

violet67
06-17-2010, 01:06 AM
darn...this is harder than i thought it woud be...it is really hard not to be able to discuss another's post....my theory involves domestic dysfunction and i don't know how much further i can go with that

Wendy101
06-17-2010, 01:08 AM
darn...this is harder than i thought it woud be...it is really hard not to be able to discuss another's post....my theory involves domestic dysfunction and i don't know how much further i can go with that

Are you in my head? LOL

liz b.
06-17-2010, 01:10 AM
1. Kyron's SM waved goodbye to him at 8:45. She was about 150 feet away from him ; quite a distance. SM said that he was going towards his classroom at that time. So, she must have gone out of the school close to the north parking lot ; far away from where Kyron was,as his classroom was next to the south parking lot...


2. LE said that an unidentified witness saw Kyron next at 9:00 by the door of his classroom. IIRC, he was alone.

My current theory is that Kyron left the school building via the blue exit door at the bottom of the stairwell next to his classroom door. I believe he was lured by someone familiar to him ,possibly the parent of a classmate. It was all about a small window of opportunity. Possible that Kyron had bee "groomed " by the perp for a while.

Emma Peel
06-17-2010, 01:11 AM
Sorry about that...if you'd like, please delete my posts above or if you'd like to move them...no problem!

Thanks misbellamoure. You can copy/paste your posts to the Question thread and when you're done, you can delete them here via the "edit" function. I have a feeling you will get many of your questions answered on Kyron's Questions thread - great knowledgeable posters here to help you!

chargers2010
06-17-2010, 01:25 AM
The best theory at this point is based on what LE has said so far...that this is an isolated incident and there is no stranger danger. Think about that for a minute and let it sink in. You can only come to one serious conclusion at that point. It seems like they are waiting for more evidence and a body before an arrest is made.

Wendy101
06-17-2010, 01:30 AM
The best theory at this point is based on what LE has said so far...that this is an isolated incident. Think about that for a minute and let it sink in. You can only come to one serious conclusion at that point. It seems like they are waiting for more evidence and a body before an arrest is made.

IMO the words "isolated incident" and the fact the children and teacher returned to school rather quickly bring me to one serious, sickening conclusion.

I agree, waiting on more evidence and Kyron's body.

DairyGirl
06-17-2010, 01:33 AM
1. Kyron's SM waved goodbye to him at 8:45. She was about 150 feet away from him ; quite a distance. SM said that he was going towards his classroom at that time. So, she must have gone out of the school close to the north parking lot ; far away from where Kyron was,as his classroom was next to the south parking lot...


2. LE said that an unidentified witness saw Kyron next at 9:00 by the door of his classroom. IIRC, he was alone.

My current theory is that Kyron left the school building via the blue exit door at the bottom of the stairwell next to his classroom door. I believe he was lured by someone familiar to him ,possibly the parent of a classmate. It was all about a small window of opportunity. Possible that Kyron had bee "groomed " by the perp for a while.

Do we have any verification of when SM left other then what she said?

chargers2010
06-17-2010, 01:34 AM
.. and the fact the children and teacher returned to school rather quickly bring me to one serious, sickening conclusion.


Good point Zaha about them letting the children return to school very quickly.

Wendy101
06-17-2010, 01:36 AM
Do we have any verification of when SM left other then what she said?

are we are supposed to have verified facts when posting our theories?

Kimster
06-17-2010, 01:40 AM
are we are supposed to have verified facts when posting our theories?

When we post a theory, there needs to be some basis in fact. Or, it might be because of something that happened in another case.

It may be a bit early for many of us to come up with a theory at this point.

chargers2010
06-17-2010, 01:40 AM
Summary of points leading to suspected theory:

1. LE states that this is an isolated incident and there is no stranger danger. This alone is huge and pretty states what they are thinking.
2. Children and teacher are allowed to return to school right away.
3. LE seems to be highly focused on one area for searching and its suggested source = cell phone pinging.
4. LE has been rather tight lipped in this case and has not been asking the public to look out for certain cars, suspect sketches, etc. Yes, they have been asking for video footage however.

revampz
06-17-2010, 02:04 AM
I have had quite a few theories....

I have never thought it was premeditated until someone above mentioned maybe Kyron was hurt and "was going to tell" or the fear put into them that he might tell.....I had an aha moment......that would give motive....or if they thought he may have hurt a younger member of the family....

therefore was told to go to parking lot and dont know the rest.....

2)....a breaking point was reached...something went down at the science fair......told to go to car.....accident while angry then coverup....

or he took off from the angry person hence the searching in the woods close by...(and maybe died while hiding but hiding spot still not discovered)...

3) someone not biologically related took him to get back at them....or took him to rescue him from a controlling situation....

pufnstuf
06-17-2010, 02:09 AM
I will say that I believe that it was premeditated. I believe every detail of that day was planned and mentally rehearsed.

violet67
06-17-2010, 02:18 AM
When we post a theory, there needs to be some basis in fact. Or, it might be because of something that happened in another case.

It may be a bit early for many of us to come up with a theory at this point.

with all due respect i disagree...this case has genenerated really strong opinions...because there seemed to be a a clampdown on rumours (and i will agree there was a swirl of them) people were kind reluctant to post any theories but i will be willing to bet that there a plenty of theories that people have come up with...we are all "treading lightly" i think

Emma Peel
06-17-2010, 02:21 AM
Here is my working Theory for today.

I just realized Calliope and I are on the same page today. LOL. Okay then!

Last I posted, days ago, it was 5 BIG THINGS, and concluded this was a Kyron-as-specific-target abduction. Here I’m looking a little closer at who the perp might possibly be – using the community & LE behavior signals as clues…

This is revised, and has new analysis and assumptions, but some of it will look familiar. (It's a workin' theory so, I reworked it :))

SEVEN BIG things that stick in my craw:

1) We know Kyron did not leave school on his own or without a reason, some convincing or luring.

(This has been confirmed with the transition from SAR to criminal investigation.)

2) This was a hectic and abnormal school day of happy hustle-bustle visitors going in and out of this little school for special events. It was widely known in the school community, and posted on the school external billboard at the end of the school year.
(This (above) is a generally acceptable fact of the day of Kyron’s disappearance.)

3) There was some sort of breach in communication between Kyron’s caretakers. (Parent/Teacher) with regard to whether Kyron was staying in school after visiting the Science Fair. We will just call this the breach in parent/teacher miscommunication.

(LE knows what happened between the understanding parent and teacher by now.)

Note: Upon this, we are left to speculate for now. This breach plays into theories involving the teacher receiving incorrect information about where Kyron would be that day, either accidentally, or nefariously/on purpose. It also could just be simple teacher oversight – although we note – the teacher was not put on leave. This breach is likely an important investigation focal point. This breakdown created a huge gap in time for alerting about Kyron's disappearance. This breakdown created opportunity on an opportune day.

4) Kyron was scheduled to leave town for the weekend – for his scheduled visit with his Medford family – Desiree/Tony. Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community - View Single Post - OR - Kyron Horman, 7 yo Second grader, Portland, 4 June 2010 - Part #14

5) Searches Continue as if for body disposal. LE has strong leads - reasons to search where they are searching.

6) General Observations that stick in my craw: This investigation has been characterized by LE as “unique” and “special” and “an isolated case”. The press is acquiescent to LE requests for hush hush. LE characterizes the family as completely cooperating. It’s a criminal investigation/missing/endangered child. LE does not characterize it as an abduction. The family seems united in their reluctance to make public statements and appeals. There is uniquely cooperative and quiet behavior in the community - the school, Intel, extended family, neighbors, friends – have all been extremely tight lipped about this case.

7) All of the above = The Perfect Storm.
What an incredible coincidence that the EXACT child whose caretakers had a breach/misunderstanding - in the parent-teacher expectation/communication - that EXACT busy morning is the EXACT child that was somehow lured away on the EXACT day he was scheduled to leave town for a weekend away.

Do you believe in coincidences such as this? What are the odds?

Should we do the math? Statistically speaking, what are the odds where the initial event of a breach of communications with regard to ONE child in a contained and secured system of 224 children leads to the vanishing event of that EXACT ONE child on this EXACT special school event calendar day of approx. 185 school days, and on one of the few Fridays he scheduled to leave town for Medford for the weekend?

That’s a probability problem (lol) and I can’t remember exactly how to calculate it. Never-the-less, it’s rather slim odds.

*********************************

Today my updated working theory connects these assumptions:
1) Kyron was specifically the target - this was a planned Kyron abduction.
2) Kyron knew the person he left school with
3) The person(s) knew Kyron’s schedule
4) The person(s) were familiar with this particular school and the school schedule
5) The person(s) may have used another school kid to lure Kyron
6) LE believes this to be the case due to a credible lead
7) It involves someone(s) known to the family
8) It involves someone(s) known to the school
9) It involves more than one family in this community
10) The community has an idea
11) The neighbors house has recently been searched
12) Kyron’s brother only recently moved hours away (reason?)
13) Kyron’s brother was away camping with his father
14) Kyron knows older kids - teens - through his brother

In summary… today I’m considered something like the Olten case – with criminal deviant behavior by some teen(s) who knew Kyron. And a community in shock.

I reserve, as always, the right to change my opinion tomorrow. So, go ahead and have at it! :dance:

sofia76
06-17-2010, 02:23 AM
I've had several theories. Am open to others.

Theory #1 - Kyron leaves school willingly. Kyron went outside either alone or with a small group of children (maybe older kids) before class started up. He lost track of time or was separated - but in any case was left behind when they all returned in time for 10am class time. If they were in different grades from him, they might not notice by end of school day that he wasn't around. This theory is supported by the fact that after the first round of student interviews were conducted, there was suddenly no information coming from the school or anyone else. If young minors are involved, no one would want to talk about this and demonize innocent children. It also would explain why LE stated that this was an isolated incident, did not call it a kidnapping, and why they limited their search to places one could arrive to on foot, and why they made no effort to nationalize their search.

Addition to Theory #1 - Kyron is abducted after leaving school willingly. If Kyron got lost outside or locked out of school (or was afraid to re-enter because he might get into trouble for leaving in the first place), he might have attempted to walk home. Children do this often. If they get disoriented, they try to go home. At this point, a crime of opportunity may have taken place. Perhaps he was picked up on one of the main roads by a stranger or someone he knew. LE seemed very confident that he was close by and would be found ... but the problem is that if he were initially lost and on foot, but THEN was abducted, the search parameters would need to change. But no point in casting a wide net at that point - better to scrutinize the activities and travel of anyone in that vicinity who could have come across a child on foot.

Will post Theory #2 in a bit.

Emma Peel
06-17-2010, 02:26 AM
(copying this over from the last thread because I'm too lazy to re-type it)

IMO, a kid in school is going to feel safe (as well they should!).

So here we have a situation where there are many kids, parents, volunteers and staff milling about. Kyron sees these "strangers" and even though he doesn't necessarily know them, logic would tell him that these people are "ok". After all, the school itself is allowing them to be around and interact with all the kids. A perfectly reasonable assumption on his part.

Knowing he's inside a safe place, surrounded by people he knows are there to watch out for him, his guard is going to be way down. In an environment like this, I have no doubt most adults wouldn't consider the 'stranger danger' element as they would elsewhere (which btw could explain why it seems no one noticed anything unusual). So why should we expect a 7 year old child to be any more vigilant??

Given these circumstances, someone with intentions on taking a child would already have a huge advantage, for not only the kids but adults as well would never in a million years expect that something like this could happen.

Now all that is left is for that predator to find a vulnerable child, one who is separated from the group, away from an adult, close to an exit.

------

I believe it was a child predator, someone who is NOT an RSO (i.e. has never been caught). Someone who is either connected to the school (however peripherally that may be) and/or the neighborhood. Possibly even had children or siblings who attended the school, maybe even a former student. Whoever this person is, I think he caught kyron separated from others and close enough to the exit that he was able to lead him out of the school without being noticed (obviously).

Because of what I wrote above (that Kyron would have felt secure in this environment), I don't think he would have fought off this person until it was far too late. I also don't believe he would have necessarily had to recognize this person in order to be lured away. I won't repost what I put on here last night; it creeped me out just to type it. Suffice to say, I can see where someone could very easily entice him to open the exit door and even follow to a waiting vehicle.

Now this assumes that Kyron wasn't a specific target, meaning someone didn't go there specifically to take him, just a vulnerable child. IF he was targeted by someone who knew him and was going after him, my thoughts are that it's someone connected to his hobbies, activities, clubs, etc., OR that of his parents or brother.

I realize this isn't a popular theory, but to me it's the one that makes the most sense.

Hey Calliope, for an unpopular theory, we are thinking a bit alike today. I reworked a theory much like yours just now. Difference is, I'm thinking Kyron knew the person(s)...and they knew him...

human
06-17-2010, 02:30 AM
I have ideas, but no theories.

I am wondering why LE has not released a profile of a person who would do such a brazen act.

I am wondering why LE has not told the community to think of people who exhibit the characteristics of someone who would do such a brazen act.

Emma Peel
06-17-2010, 02:33 AM
I've had several theories. Am open to others.

Theory #1 - Kyron leaves school willingly. Kyron went outside either alone or with a small group of children (maybe older kids) before class started up. He lost track of time or was separated - but in any case was left behind when they all returned in time for 10am class time. If they were in different grades from him, they might not notice by end of school day that he wasn't around. This theory is supported by the fact that after the first round of student interviews were conducted, there was suddenly no information coming from the school or anyone else. If young minors are involved, no one would want to talk about this and demonize innocent children. It also would explain why LE stated that this was an isolated incident, did not call it a kidnapping, and why they limited their search to places one could arrive to on foot, and why they made no effort to nationalize their search.

Addition to Theory #1 - Kyron is abducted after leaving school willingly. If Kyron got lost outside or locked out of school (or was afraid to re-enter because he might get into trouble for leaving in the first place), he might have attempted to walk home. Children do this often. If they get disoriented, they try to go home. At this point, a crime of opportunity may have taken place. Perhaps he was picked up on one of the main roads by a stranger or someone he knew. LE seemed very confident that he was close by and would be found ... but the problem is that if he were initially lost and on foot, but THEN was abducted, the search parameters would need to change. But no point in casting a wide net at that point - better to scrutinize the activities and travel of anyone in that vicinity who could have come across a child on foot.

Will post Theory #2 in a bit.

I thought theory 1 at first - and that would explain the reason they conducted the massive SAR effort.

I never thought of theory #1 plus Addition - but it makes sense too. I like it Sofia! Looking forward to your next theory.

violet67
06-17-2010, 02:35 AM
Yikes emma!!!!! i have wandered down that path of thinking myself once or twice during the past week (but still currently leaning elsewhere) That #6 bullet is pretty interesting! what are the odds though that SM wouldn't have run into him at the school. She would certainly have raised an eyebrow.

butterfly1978
06-17-2010, 02:44 AM
I feel that "someone" close to Kyron, was burdened by Kyron and jealous, planned this out and created an alibi for themself. Based off statements by LE this is an isolated case and no other kids are endanger, the way they are handling this case, my gut instinct and the fact I don't believe in coincidences.
I do reserve the right to change my mind at a future time because I am a female and thats my prerogative and as new info becomes available.

masyann
06-17-2010, 02:47 AM
Possible theories:

1.) SM is getting ready to leave the school say’s goodbye (she say’s) or (someone says) the last time SM sees Kyron, is 8:45, but maybe it is 8:50 or 8:52 or 8:53 (but you get my point), Kyron a couple minutes later thinks oh no I forgot my (whatever) in the car, so who ever saw him at 9 maybe really seen him at 8:55 or 8:56. So he leaves the school, and the car is gone, and then someone takes him, Crime of Opportunity.

2.) Or let’s say with parts of the same scenario above accept for let’s say Kyron thinks I don’t want to be in the talent show or he feels sick and he runs after SM out the door (thus someone seeing them leave together if that’s been verified I do not know I DON’T THINK IT HAS BEEN VERIFIED) and he says, he does not want to stay at school, and SM says honey you have to stay at school you will be fine, so she gets in the car and is in a hurry (maybe in a hurry for a appointment she may have told the teacher about, but it was her appointment not anything to do with Kyron, Appointment has NEVER BEEN VERIFIED to my knowledge) so she does not wait to make sure he goes back to the school. (If this happened just think how sick she would feel.) So Kyron runs to A or B or C happens
A.
He goes somewhere on school grounds and hides at first I thought he may have went into the woods to hide for awhile and some SO or RSO grabbed him. But I think it does look like the school has a fence around it, correct me if I am wrong. So he could have just went to one of the out buildings

Or B. Someone sees him heading back to the school and again this would have to be a crime of opportunity takes him, but why would no one see this. Maybe they did or did not, as was mentioned earlier kids have been taken from stores with people around and no one see’s anything.

Or C. Someone that has been watching (from upper floor from window) either someone that had came with student or is a employee who is a pervert creep or whatever bad name you can come up with, sees him and sees what just happened and comes out to see what they can do to help… and that’s very creepy to type. And maybe the person that took him is the person (if that is even true) is the one who say’s SM and Kyronl leave together.

With what is known and it’s not much I am trying to think how it may have happened, it maybe just about anybody or anything, you just never really know. Even when you finally know you may not really know everything. I do think whatever it is NO ONE should ever, for any reason have to suffer the loss a child.

Hope this make sense, I don’t write things out very well I have ADHD and I don’t write things out to well….

But these theories don’t leave much for the isolated incident and no one should be worried.

Also I am not sure if I should have left parts out do to non verified. Kimster or BeanE please delete or let me know and I will delete. TIA

pufnstuf
06-17-2010, 02:49 AM
I just want to say that while I may not agree with the theories in this thread I do appreciate the work that has been put into them.

Emma, I really think yours is good... the point where I differ is the person with whom Kyron left. The rest, I pretty much agree!

Kimster
06-17-2010, 02:54 AM
with all due respect i disagree...this case has genenerated really strong opinions...because there seemed to be a a clampdown on rumours (and i will agree there was a swirl of them) people were kind reluctant to post any theories but i will be willing to bet that there a plenty of theories that people have come up with...we are all "treading lightly" i think

Maybe I'm a lone soldier because I can't figure this out at ALL! I'm still in shock as though this happened yesterday. :(

SoCalSleuth
06-17-2010, 03:16 AM
I think it was premeditated--that's why Kyron's remains have not been found. Also, because I think the Science Fair did provide the perfect opportunity for people "not to notice" everything; for there to be "confusion" relating to certain events or non-events of the day, and to blame an outsider. I think someone that knew and was close to Kyron is the perp because that's where the stats lead me, because LE has not warned citizens to be on the lookout, have not released a composite sketch, have not brought in any known RSO, and have referred to it as an "isolated incident". Simple theory cuz I like to keep it simple.

Calliope
06-17-2010, 03:17 AM
Hey Calliope, for an unpopular theory, we are thinking a bit alike today. I reworked a theory much like yours just now. Difference is, I'm thinking Kyron knew the person(s)...and they knew him...

Actually, I've wavered back and forth on that. IF he was targeted specifically, yes. Random/opportunistic, no. First thing I thought of was older student, former students but still teens, the boyscout connection.

butterfly1978
06-17-2010, 03:31 AM
Have we all steered away from the theory that this was an abduction for ransom?

I have based on the reward being $25,000

Emma Peel
06-17-2010, 03:37 AM
are we are supposed to have verified facts when posting our theories?

Zaha, speaking for myself, I typically try to state where I have made an assumption for the sake of the theory - especially if it's an important part of the theory.

Like Kimster, I feel the best theories use substantiated facts and weave a plausible scenario around those facts that support your hypothesis.

So, not everything has to be fact - but any assumptions should be acknowledged for the reader.

and here we can't use rumor as fact in our theories, but we already knew that by now...

Typically if a fact is widely known, no linking required in theorizing. If you're using a really obscure fact - it's considerate to link it.

And sometimes if you're really working on a fine detailed analysis - that you hope to make into a proof statement - one that will become a fact in a later theory - ( such as a ping map study or something like that to support your POI assumptions) - then links to your data sources are necessary. What you're doing there is creating your own proof statement of fact - so the linking shows your proofs are based on facts.

I hope at least some of that makes sense. :waitasec:

Emma Peel
06-17-2010, 03:51 AM
I am sorry if this has already been mentioned have been reading all thru the posts in kyrons forensic astrology and reading the links posted where it came to my attention that the friday in question(june 4) that kyron went missing, that not only was there a science fair scheduled for that morning (which we already know that kyron was involved with and that his step mother attended this fair also) but what I did not know was that there was a talent show scheduled for that afternoon after lunch, which Kyron was also scheduled to be involved and participate in. So, my question is this, I as a parent have always attended any&all school functions, activities, etc that my son has been involved in, especially something such as atalent show for which he wouldve had to put at the very least a fair amount of time and hard word into preparing for such an event and at the age of 7 this would definitely involve a great deal of involvement by a parent in organizing (i.e. deciding the specifics on what talent and how to present that talent) along with a parent encouraging and more than likely helping in the practicing for the talent show. All of that said I would think that if a parent came to something such as the science fair that morning that equally as important there would be a parent that would have been present for kyrons involvement in the talent show? But yet as we know by the facts that OBVIOUSLY no one did attend the talent show, hence they would have known at the time of the talent show that kyron was missing, several full hours earlier than when the bus driver notified the school. I find this to be somewhat disheartening and not adding up for me. Does anyone know anything about this talent show and possibly why no parent attended this talent show?? TIA

Hi Jessigirl -
You might want to ask this question over on the Science FAIR/IB Expo thread. Here's the link: The Science Fair-IB Expo - Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community

Also try the Kyron Question Thread. Here's the link: Kyron Horman Q&A ***No Discussion*** - Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community

Emma Peel
06-17-2010, 03:55 AM
Is there any chance that the search is based on pings from Kyron's cellphone, as opposed to somebody else's?

Hi Jules -

I am not aware of Kyron having a cell phone but ... you can
Try the Kyron Question Thread. Here's the link:
Kyron Horman Q&A ***No Discussion*** - Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community

(This thread is for your case theories.)

jessigirl
06-17-2010, 03:55 AM
Hi Jessigirl -
You might want to ask this question over on the Science FAIR/IB Expo thread. Here's the link: The Science Fair-IB Expo - Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community (http://www.websleuths.com/forums/showthread.php?t=106889)

Also try the Kyron Question Thread. Here's the link: Kyron Horman Q&A ***No Discussion*** - Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community (http://www.websleuths.com/forums/showthread.php?t=106888)

Thanks very much. I'll delete my post from this thread

mamaeb
06-17-2010, 03:56 AM
well I have a few different theories but my current one is sorta like this, but not so edited down.


Someone close to Kyron took him away after the science fair. I think this person was someone Kyron willingly went with, because he trusted them.

I also think there is a chance the teacher trusted Kyron leaving with this person, and so she thought nothing of his absence.

I think
1.either this was planned and he was killed

2.something went wrong and kyron was hurt/killed by this person

the person went to drop the body and the phone pinged near the water on sauvie

the phone also pinged around the school and initial search area

maybe this person left him in water, maybe not

Maybe in that time this person called 911 and then freaked and didn't talk to them
**(this could be why the police mentioned reverse calling 911 calls)

Emma Peel
06-17-2010, 04:11 AM
My apologies. My question actually related to the one theory based on cellphone pings and the subsequent search. I'll delete my question.

oh, no then my bad So sorry Jules!
lol I've been sending questions to the question thread for too long, I guess.

It's great for you to ask questions on a theory. If you quote the theory in your post, that original poster who's theory you're commenting on will know that you've commented/questioned. Still, if anyone else can answer your question they might pop in & help out.

anyoldtime48
06-17-2010, 04:17 AM
Well postpartum enters my mind in this case.

I read the information the astro charts provide, that is where the though entered my head.

LOL.. I am too chicken to post anything on here yet, I'll wait for a few more theories to come on, so I can see how detailed the theories get...

BBM

Interesting that I picked up the same thing. Don't recall that was stated directly?? But then most of the astro stuff is Greek to me.

Adding in the physical description astros provided, all kinds of bells and whistles went off regarding a non-family person, but I need to ask a bunch of questions (off to 6 other threads) to see if my theory on precisely WHO has any legs at all.

If it is somebody local known to Kyron, I suspect there was planning behind this, although that day may have still had a strong element of crime of opportunity -- strike while the iron is hot so to speak.

Total stranger? Maybe. But basically in the boonies where a stranger is not likely to know the school was open to the world that morning. More likely I think he walked off with somebody he knew and mistakenly trusted.

Jules_SA
06-17-2010, 04:22 AM
Summary of points leading to suspected theory:

1. LE states that this is an isolated incident and there is no stranger danger. This alone is huge and pretty states what they are thinking.
2. Children and teacher are allowed to return to school right away.
3. LE seems to be highly focused on one area for searching and its suggested source = cell phone pinging.
4. LE has been rather tight lipped in this case and has not been asking the public to look out for certain cars, suspect sketches, etc. Yes, they have been asking for video footage however.


BBM
Thank you, Chargers, for these points which can be used to create certain theories and assumptions. However, what if Kyron had a cellphone and they're basing their search areas on his cellphone pings?
If he was taken by someone that he knew, as premeditated as the whole abduction *might* have been, they may not have known that he had a cellphone in his pocket. Either that, or we're back to the theory that the "perp" is known to LE and they're basing their search on the perp's cellphone pings.

Jaxson
06-17-2010, 04:35 AM
Possibility?

SM takes Kyron to school,
SM and Kyron set up IB project in his classroom and they do a quick tour of the other projects.
SM leaves at 8:45 after the 2nd bell rings and Kyron heads down the hall to class.
Kids are put in groups of 6 to tour the IB fair.
During tour Kyron has to use the bathroom. Perp grabs him and exits the building.
Sub, para, volunteer parent or whoevers group he was in gets back to classroom with kids and says wait Kyron is missing, teacher says he probably went to get a drink or use the bathroom.
Kyron doesn't come back, teacher may or may not look for him before deciding he must hav left with mom.


Or same scenario however when the group comes back to the classroom Kyron does not come in but tells his friend 'I am going to see the electric project' (which he knows about so has probably already seen)
Kyron is grabbed by perp while kids are filing into classrooms and heads counts are being taken (or roll call).
Sub, para, volunteer parent notices he is gone, teacher thinks he went to bathroom or to get a drink. and after looking for him decides he left with SM.

I am sure I missed something but I do believe he and step mom could have been seen together by his teacher and another 'instructor' and by a friend in the doorway and a conversation overheard by TP.
And he still coulda been grabbed by an opportunistic perp.

ETA I had posted this awhile back but I think it is a theory.

txsvicki
06-17-2010, 05:16 AM
If Kyron's abduction was planned and not one of opportunity, then the abductor could be someone who would not have easy access to him during the summer. The hectic lax atmosphere of a science fair and talent show on the same day (ridiculous IMO) would be a good time for luring a child away. This person must not have been able to get to Kyron at home easily or while he was out playing with friends or at the bus stop. I may be wrong, but it all sounds as if the abductor is someone somehow associated with the school or has some connection to other students so as not to stand out too much at the science fair or even waiting in the parking areas.

wildsagefire
06-17-2010, 06:57 AM
Has anyone checked out any delivery drivers?

Delivery people come and go throughout the day and they drive to different locations. You pass them in the hallway and they are in and out quickly!

Someone who would take a child would have to be in and out quickly to get away with a them unseen. A promise of candy or pop from a machine?

Just a thought into a theory.

Chili Fries
06-17-2010, 07:06 AM
My theory is that LE are very actively investigating different possibilities.

I think that with the information we have right now it could be anything. Abduction where he is killed or kept (by stranger or somebody he knew, SM accident or anger, hit by a car and body hid in a panic, or even wandered off and his body is still hidden in the dense foliage somewhere. My #1 possibility right now is probably abduction as a crime of opportunity not necessarily pre-planned.

GrainneDhu
06-17-2010, 07:49 AM
I'm not wedded to a specific theory yet because there just isn't enough evidence known to give particular weight to any theory.

I do have a theory as to how it happened if it were a stranger abduction.

In such a situation, I think the perp was someone who was not associated with the school but could have given a plausible reason for being in the school that morning had he been confronted.

I think he was someone who was a friend or perhaps even a dating partner of one of the parents in the school. Either because he was grooming that parent or because he was trying to garner information about the school.

I think the actual abduction was opportunistic in nature. No one knew he was going to be in the school that day. He went to the school with his plausible reason for being there and, had he used it, he would have left the school without abducting Kyron.

I think he was able to blend in with the rest of the adults there, meaning that he looks between 30 and 45 years old (the approximate age range of the parent of a 5-14 year old child). For some reason, I think of him as dressing a notch above jeans and a T shirt. I imagine him wearing something like Dockers and a polo shirt or maybe a sweat shirt. He'd dress very white collar and probably wear a wedding ring, whether he's married or not (to foster the illusion that he belonged in a school).

He happened upon Kyron alone and out of earshot of other people. Like the Adam Walsh abduction, the potential witnesses present were focusing on the exhibits rather than the environment.

He asked Kyron to help him bring something in from his vehicle and probably told him that his teacher or the principal of the school had okay'd it. Being a helpful, rule observant little boy, Kyron didn't question it.

He walked with Kyron out to his vehicle, keeping an eye out for witnesses. If anyone had seen them together, the abduction would have been aborted, Kyron would have returned to the school unharmed.

When he and Kyron got to the vehicle, there were no eyewitnesses in sight. Given the popularity of SUVs and trucks, no matter where he was parked, the sight lines were probably quite short.

He would not have been on the school's phone list, so he did not go in on Sunday to be interviewed. No one knew he was going to be at the school that day, so no one has identified him as a possible witness or suspect.

Sadly, if this theory is correct, I believe he killed Kyron and disposed of his body before anyone realised that Kyron was unaccounted for. There is a link between him and the school, it's just a tenuous one but enough that he can't risk keeping a captive.

BeanE
06-17-2010, 08:06 AM
Good morning, everyone! :)

I've temporarily unapproved a few posts until a senior mod or admin can review them. I apologize for this interruption.

Thanks for your patience!
BeanE

animefemme
06-17-2010, 08:17 AM
1. Has anyone explored Münchausen's by proxy? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M%C3%BCnchausen_syndrome_by_proxy

2. Reaching but, a theory brought up on another message-board was the angle of retaliation by friends of perps arrested by Tony Young: http://www.ci.medford.or.us/News.asp?NewsID=2727

3. Jealousy against Kyron by ???

Skully
06-17-2010, 08:24 AM
Here is my working Theory for today.

Hi Emma,

I respectfully snipped this bit. You and I are on the same page too. Many good points too if I may say so.

1) Kyron knew this person, so well that his or her presence in the school or grounds, never set off any bells.
2) I am leaning to an outer family person, or a common face at school.
3) I still feel that he or she asked him to come outside to help bring something in and when he went out, he was forced into a car or trunk.
4) if this was a distant relative it was planned, if it was someone other than that, it could be that Kyron was in the wrong place at the right time for this person. He may have just been "cruising" that day and got lucky with the fair and talent show. It gave him an opportunity to be at the school, unnoticed. Bern

*********************************
Emma Peel

Today my updated working theory connects these assumptions:
1) Kyron was specifically the target - this was a planned Kyron abduction.
2) Kyron knew the person he left school with
3) The person(s) knew Kyron’s schedule
4) The person(s) were familiar with this particular school and the school schedule
5) The person(s) may have used another school kid to lure Kyron
6) LE believes this to be the case due to a credible lead
7) It involves someone(s) known to the family
8) It involves someone(s) known to the school
9) It involves more than one family in this community
10) The community has an idea
11) The neighbors house has recently been searched
12) Kyron’s brother only recently moved hours away (reason?)
13) Kyron’s brother was away camping with his father
14) Kyron knows older kids - teens - through his brother

In summary… today I’m considered something like the Olten case – with criminal deviant behavior by some teen(s) who knew Kyron. And a community in shock.

I reserve, as always, the right to change my opinion tomorrow. So, go ahead and have at it! :dance:


Just wanted to jump off some of your points, I put them in your quotes, sorry no cut and paste to get them out of the shaded box.

Jersey*Girl
06-17-2010, 08:38 AM
I theorize that LE & the FBI have a perp in mind. I theorize the reason that they showed pics of Kyron w/o his glasses on is b/c they found his glasses. I theorize Kyron's perp is someone he knows & trusts very well. I theorize the reason the authorities are asking for pics & videos of the day before Kyron went missing is b/c they're looking for a specific vehicle to be linked to a "dry run". I theorize LE is figuring out the motive right now.

cluciano63
06-17-2010, 08:47 AM
My theory is that the police are working various theories simultaneously while trying to figure out exactly what happened and that they named it a criminal investigation on Sunday in order to be able to obtain search warrants and do other things they are not allowed to do when invesitgating a simpler missing persons case.

Angel4u2Whisper2
06-17-2010, 09:19 AM
I have a theory as well. It is based on illuision. What you think you see isn't always what you see.

The perfect illusion theory: (written very carefully so may seem a little scripted I appoligise in advance)

* Behavior and actions may lead people around them to believe that this person is amazing and can juggle many things with perfection. Multitasker, dreamer, self sacrificing, amazing, strong and martar might be words that describe what you think you see.
* Talented, beautiful, smart, perfect family, perfect children, giving might be examples of what they need you to think. The illusion is important and unmoveable. If you try to shake the illusion or allude to not seeing what you "must" see this is shattering!

Sometimes what we see isn't nearly as important as what we never get to see.

The rest of my theory to come at a later date.

78gidget78
06-17-2010, 09:30 AM
well this isn't MY theory, just a possibility i thought of. Since it seems no one saw kyron leave the school with anyone, it's possible he didn't leave the school immediately after his "last seen" he could have been hidden away somewhere in the school and concealed/removed after the school day when everyone left/was leaving. just a thought.

JustToSeeYouSmile
06-17-2010, 09:46 AM
darn...this is harder than i thought it woud be...it is really hard not to be able to discuss another's post....my theory involves domestic dysfunction and i don't know how much further i can go with that

Hmm. My theory involves domestic dysfunction as well.

So....just thinking out loud here: Crimes and accidents and the like occur at all times of the day, in all walks of life, and while people are going about their usual business, whatever that may be. Usually these crimes or accidents catch people unaware and offguard due to a sequence of events that occurs: i.e. you head into work one morning, realize you forgot to put a file in your briefcase the night before, head back home to get it, hurry because you know you're going to be late, get in a car accident as a result etc etc.
Sometimes these sequence of events that occur during the time frame of a crime or accident involve activities that, say, might be secret, unknown, or frowned upon by others. Say, for example, you are having an affair outside of your marriage, and your spouse has a heart attack while you are in a compromising place with another person. The hospital calls you to tell you your spouse has had a heart attack....and it takes you much longer to 'come from the bank' or wherever you were supposed to be than it should.
Or say you are involved in an activity like such and a crime occurs that requires you to divulge your whereabouts of every second, your cell phone usage, as well as anyone in your life that may, say, have access to your child, family, or motivation for harm to you or yours. Suddenly activities that may have been secret may be divulged- or- out of fear or shame, may still be withheld despite the necessity of divulging them to LE to solve the crime.
Sometimes those activities lead to crimes, but because the activities are somewhat clandestine, the crime (or accident) appears much more confusing because the information surrounding it is misrepresented due to the nature of the activity.
Hmm. Does this make any sense?

sofia76
06-17-2010, 10:32 AM
Suddenly activities that may have been secret may be divulged- or- out of fear or shame, may still be withheld despite the necessity of divulging them to LE to solve the crime.
Sometimes those activities lead to crimes, but because the activities are somewhat clandestine, the crime (or accident) appears much more confusing because the information surrounding it is misrepresented due to the nature of the activity.
Hmm. Does this make any sense?

Yes! It does to me! I've been wondering if the Hormans have some unconventional or embarrassing habits/beliefs/activities that they really don't want to come to light during this investigation. Not so much because they want to avoid embarrassment, but because the public would be scandalized or so caught up in dissecting these actions that the search for Kyron would be overshadowed.

Family members have been notably scarce since Kyron disappeared eight days ago from his rural school in Northwest Portland, drawing national attention and questions to investigators. Sheriff's officials said the family has wanted to keep the focus on Kyron.

Larry Moulton of Roseburg, the father of the boy's stepmother, said investigators urged the family to avoid the spotlight. But Multnomah County Sheriff Dan Staton said that's not true. A sheriff's captain who has been working with the family "had a conversation with them and that's when they decided to talk to the media," he said.
both quotes from http://www.oregonlive.com/portland/index.ssf/2010/06/kyron_hormans_family_makes_emo.html

The family didn't appear in public to make the plea. They want to keep the focus on Kyron, said Multnomah County sheriff's Capt. Mike Shults.

"They know that it's very important to keep the objective on Kyron and him, not on them," said Shults, who has been with the family since the second-grader went missing. from http://www.oregonlive.com/portland/index.ssf/2010/06/family_says_please_dont_stop_s.html

Why would these parents be so concerned that merely speaking in public would divert attention from Kyron? When they finally made their first appearance in a press conference, there was nothing bizarre or strange about any of them that I noticed. But if TH and/or KH were doing something that day that would elicit scandalized chatter or finger wagging disapproval, they might have needed time away from the cameras to talk with others who were aware of their activities and ask them not to be all gossipy. And also, it could be that they explained what was happening to LE, who - after consideration - agreed that these activities were likely irrelevant to Kyron's disappearance and would only distract from finding him; and then LE may have agreed to not divulge these details so long as they were thought to be irrelevant.

As random examples - NOT THEORIES or rumors related to the Horman's specifically as these have no basis in fact - what if you (as a parent/couple) had spent a few hours at a couple's sex therapy session. Would you want that to be made public? Probably not. Or if one of you had an addiction (say, gambling or drug) that no one knew about and you were at a 12-step meeting. Or even, if one had such an addiction and were taking part in it at the time of Kyron's disappearance, you wouldn't want the public to know. That type of thing, but the possibilities are numerous.

Calliope
06-17-2010, 10:33 AM
I'm not wedded to a specific theory yet because there just isn't enough evidence known to give particular weight to any theory.

I do have a theory as to how it happened if it were a stranger abduction.

In such a situation, I think the perp was someone who was not associated with the school but could have given a plausible reason for being in the school that morning had he been confronted.

I think he was someone who was a friend or perhaps even a dating partner of one of the parents in the school. Either because he was grooming that parent or because he was trying to garner information about the school.

I think the actual abduction was opportunistic in nature. No one knew he was going to be in the school that day. He went to the school with his plausible reason for being there and, had he used it, he would have left the school without abducting Kyron.

I think he was able to blend in with the rest of the adults there, meaning that he looks between 30 and 45 years old (the approximate age range of the parent of a 5-14 year old child). For some reason, I think of him as dressing a notch above jeans and a T shirt. I imagine him wearing something like Dockers and a polo shirt or maybe a sweat shirt. He'd dress very white collar and probably wear a wedding ring, whether he's married or not (to foster the illusion that he belonged in a school).

He happened upon Kyron alone and out of earshot of other people. Like the Adam Walsh abduction, the potential witnesses present were focusing on the exhibits rather than the environment.

He asked Kyron to help him bring something in from his vehicle and probably told him that his teacher or the principal of the school had okay'd it. Being a helpful, rule observant little boy, Kyron didn't question it.

He walked with Kyron out to his vehicle, keeping an eye out for witnesses. If anyone had seen them together, the abduction would have been aborted, Kyron would have returned to the school unharmed.

When he and Kyron got to the vehicle, there were no eyewitnesses in sight. Given the popularity of SUVs and trucks, no matter where he was parked, the sight lines were probably quite short.

He would not have been on the school's phone list, so he did not go in on Sunday to be interviewed. No one knew he was going to be at the school that day, so no one has identified him as a possible witness or suspect.

Sadly, if this theory is correct, I believe he killed Kyron and disposed of his body before anyone realised that Kyron was unaccounted for. There is a link between him and the school, it's just a tenuous one but enough that he can't risk keeping a captive.

Very plausible theory, thanks.

I think it's significant that nearly a third of the students are transfers from outside the neighborhood (i.e. from around the district and even interdistrict transfers). But not necessarily because the person was connected to one of the transfer students.

I believe this fact would lead to even less vigilance on the part of staff and local parents, especially on a day where there is an open-house of sorts. If they expect to see people they are less than familiar with, then the presence of a 'strange' adult isn't going to set off any warning bells or even consciously register. Therefore, as long as the person could blend in (as you describe above) he'd essentially be invisible to all those around him.

IRule254
06-17-2010, 10:44 AM
I theorize that LE & the FBI have a perp in mind. I theorize the reason that they showed pics of Kyron w/o his glasses on is b/c they found his glasses. I theorize Kyron's perp is someone he knows & trusts very well. I theorize the reason the authorities are asking for pics & videos of the day before Kyron went missing is b/c they're looking for a specific vehicle to be linked to a "dry run". I theorize LE is figuring out the motive right now.

I agree with the bolded, for sure. And, IMO, the glasses were meant to be found.

liz b.
06-17-2010, 10:50 AM
Here is my working Theory for today.

I just realized Calliope and I are on the same page today. LOL. Okay then!

Last I posted, days ago, it was 5 BIG THINGS, and concluded this was a Kyron-as-specific-target abduction. Here I’m looking a little closer at who the perp might possibly be – using the community & LE behavior signals as clues…

This is revised, and has new analysis and assumptions, but some of it will look familiar. (It's a workin' theory so, I reworked it :))

SEVEN BIG things that stick in my craw:

1) We know Kyron did not leave school on his own or without a reason, some convincing or luring.

(This has been confirmed with the transition from SAR to criminal investigation.)

2) This was a hectic and abnormal school day of happy hustle-bustle visitors going in and out of this little school for special events. It was widely known in the school community, and posted on the school external billboard at the end of the school year.
(This (above) is a generally acceptable fact of the day of Kyron’s disappearance.)

3) There was some sort of breach in communication between Kyron’s caretakers. (Parent/Teacher) with regard to whether Kyron was staying in school after visiting the Science Fair. We will just call this the breach in parent/teacher miscommunication.

(LE knows what happened between the understanding parent and teacher by now.)

Note: Upon this, we are left to speculate for now. This breach plays into theories involving the teacher receiving incorrect information about where Kyron would be that day, either accidentally, or nefariously/on purpose. It also could just be simple teacher oversight – although we note – the teacher was not put on leave. This breach is likely an important investigation focal point. This breakdown created a huge gap in time for alerting about Kyron's disappearance. This breakdown created opportunity on an opportune day.

4) Kyron was scheduled to leave town for the weekend – for his scheduled visit with his Medford family – Desiree/Tony. Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community - View Single Post - OR - Kyron Horman, 7 yo Second grader, Portland, 4 June 2010 - Part #14 (http://www.websleuths.com/forums/showpost.php?p=5289929&postcount=54)

5) Searches Continue as if for body disposal. LE has strong leads - reasons to search where they are searching.

6) General Observations that stick in my craw: This investigation has been characterized by LE as “unique” and “special” and “an isolated case”. The press is acquiescent to LE requests for hush hush. LE characterizes the family as completely cooperating. It’s a criminal investigation/missing/endangered child. LE does not characterize it as an abduction. The family seems united in their reluctance to make public statements and appeals. There is uniquely cooperative and quiet behavior in the community - the school, Intel, extended family, neighbors, friends – have all been extremely tight lipped about this case.

7) All of the above = The Perfect Storm.
What an incredible coincidence that the EXACT child whose caretakers had a breach/misunderstanding - in the parent-teacher expectation/communication - that EXACT busy morning is the EXACT child that was somehow lured away on the EXACT day he was scheduled to leave town for a weekend away.

Do you believe in coincidences such as this? What are the odds?

Should we do the math? Statistically speaking, what are the odds where the initial event of a breach of communications with regard to ONE child in a contained and secured system of 224 children leads to the vanishing event of that EXACT ONE child on this EXACT special school event calendar day of approx. 185 school days, and on one of the few Fridays he scheduled to leave town for Medford for the weekend?

That’s a probability problem (lol) and I can’t remember exactly how to calculate it. Never-the-less, it’s rather slim odds.

*********************************

Today my updated working theory connects these assumptions:
1) Kyron was specifically the target - this was a planned Kyron abduction.
2) Kyron knew the person he left school with
3) The person(s) knew Kyron’s schedule
4) The person(s) were familiar with this particular school and the school schedule
5) The person(s) may have used another school kid to lure Kyron
6) LE believes this to be the case due to a credible lead
7) It involves someone(s) known to the family
8) It involves someone(s) known to the school
9) It involves more than one family in this community
10) The community has an idea
11) The neighbors house has recently been searched
12) Kyron’s brother only recently moved hours away (reason?)
13) Kyron’s brother was away camping with his father
14) Kyron knows older kids - teens - through his brother

In summary… today I’m considered something like the Olten case – with criminal deviant behavior by some teen(s) who knew Kyron. And a community in shock.

I reserve, as always, the right to change my opinion tomorrow. So, go ahead and have at it! :dance:


Good Morning Ms.Peel,
With regard to #6, I wonder if this case was described as "unique" simply because a child disappeared inside the school, while the faculty was present ?

violet67
06-17-2010, 11:00 AM
I have a theory as well. It is based on illuision. What you think you see isn't always what you see.

The perfect illusion theory: (written very carefully so may seem a little scripted I appoligise in advance)

* Behavior and actions may lead people around them to believe that this person is amazing and can juggle many things with perfection. Multitasker, dreamer, self sacrificing, amazing, strong and martar might be words that describe what you think you see.
* Talented, beautiful, smart, perfect family, perfect children, giving might be examples of what they need you to think. The illusion is important and unmoveable. If you try to shake the illusion or allude to not seeing what you "must" see this is shattering!

Sometimes what we see isn't nearly as important as what we never get to see.

The rest of my theory to come at a later date.

oh my! i am totally onboard with your analogy....as a very amateur "profiler" i pay attention to the little things...the quality of the frog project, type of vehicle one drives, importance of body image, photos one posts online, etc (there is nothing wrong with any of those things and it is all JMO but added up it projects a certain type of personality) i started putting together my theory when i read the comment about not believing what you may see in the news. At this point there wasnt anything (at least what we saw) in any of the media other than Kyron was missing. Could there have been some major dysfunction going on at home that terri did not want leaked out? My theory becomes much more detailed but i am going to stop it there except to say i think it was premediated and i think the events of the day did indeed create that "perfect storm" i am hoping i have not crossed any lines with TOS

Dee10
06-17-2010, 11:12 AM
Here is John Walsh's theory:

"My gut feeling is they have a person of interest and they're trying to make sure they don't make mistakes that would compromise the case," Walsh said. "Of course, we all have to hold out hope this person is keeping Kyron alive and that the best end result is this boy will be gotten back alive."

http://www.kptv.com/news/23932306/detail.html

I hope that was OK to post here. I hope he is right!

chargers2010
06-17-2010, 11:14 AM
I theorize that LE & the FBI have a perp in mind. I theorize the reason that they showed pics of Kyron w/o his glasses on is b/c they found his glasses. I theorize Kyron's perp is someone he knows & trusts very well. I theorize the reason the authorities are asking for pics & videos of the day before Kyron went missing is b/c they're looking for a specific vehicle to be linked to a "dry run". I theorize LE is figuring out the motive right now.


This is very much what I am thinking also. Plus, if LE believes that a perp is out there right now who took Kyron, wouldn't they warn the community to some extent? I mean look at serial rape cases where LE warns the public to be careful and be on the lookout. Many schools are year round, so if LE thought that a perp was freely out there who took Kyron, they would have an obligation to let parents know something. If LE had any suspicions that there was a perp, they would let this be know to some degree. Instead, they have actually indicated the opposite. That this is an isolated incident. Many people on this board with perp theories seem to be ignoring this. Unless it is not true that LE has indicated that this is an isolated incident (I don't have first hand knowledge of them saying it - just many different sources reporting it), why would you think that a sex offender is out there free right now?

oceanblueeyes
06-17-2010, 11:19 AM
This is such a unique case where a child inside of a school simply vanishes.

But unfortunately for little Kyron it was a day perfect for a storm to form.

Not only was the school full of people as the school representative has said but it was full of unknown people too. This school didn't even require that visitors add their name to any list. They simply invited anyone and everyone to join in even announcing it up on their school outside billboard.

Predators take advantage of opportunities imo. They like to go where they know there is much distraction and everyone really isn't paying attention to everyone else. They like to appear to "fit in" and appear normal and having a reason for being there. They may even appear as doting and endearing to children.

So imo it was a disaster waiting to happen that day and it did not take the perpetrator long to see a little boy alone. This person may have even arrived early and scoping out his victim. Maybe he spoke to him and commented how great Kyron's exhibit was or made some other small conversation to put Kyron at ease. Maybe he asked Kyron had he seen the eclectic exhibit?

IMO, children think stranger/danger is for someone that looks like the boogeyman or woman who may nab them off the street or in their yards. In school children feel safe imo.

I think the perpetrator was already inside the school and saw Terri leave and saw Kyron going to his classroom.

It only takes moments for a predator to nab a child especially if they use a ruse that the child believes is true.

As I have already pointed out several times on various shows through the years I have watched in horror how easily it was for a predator to take the hand of a child and led them away even though the one posing as a predator was a cop but the children did not know that. They do not scream, they do not fight, they go because they trust adults even though schools and parents have told them they must not.

So I do think a predator has struck again. They are high risk takers and very sure of their abilities to decieve.

I also think it is highly likely that it was someone there that may have known Kyron through school or another way and knew he was shy and quiet and they took advantage of that.

I do not know for certain if I feel Kyron is dead or alive now.

IMO

Kimster
06-17-2010, 11:22 AM
When we post a theory, there needs to be some basis in fact. Or, it might be because of something that happened in another case.

It may be a bit early for many of us to come up with a theory at this point.

Bolded by me (BBM)

If your theory doesn't have some fact to base it on, your post is subject to removal without explanation. Since theory posts usually generate a lot of time to compose, please make sure it is plausible.

I realize many have theories in their minds, but if this turns into a rumor thread, it will be closed. Emma Peel's first post is a great guideline to follow, please read it carefully.

This post is landing randomly in this thread.

Calliope
06-17-2010, 11:27 AM
Expanding a bit more on what I posted above and bear with me as I sense I'm going to ramble a bit lol.

(this is going on the assumption Kyron was not a specific target)

Given the "feel" of the school, open and welcoming of community involvement and support, I think it very likely that they have had other days throughout the year where the school was essentially an open house. Thinking too about whether this was premeditated and to what degree, I wonder if this person had attended other 'open' school functions (regardless of any connection to the school, parents or students) and if there was a plan that evolved over time as they became aware of the school's trusting (almost naive) atmosphere and obvious lack of security.

Attending prior school functions would have also had the effect of establishing this person as someone who belonged to the school community.

In any case, I don't think it's a coincidence that this happened at the last "open house" type activity of the year. Had they chosen to do this at one hosted earlier in the year, their absence in subsequent open school functions would have been apparent.


ack

this probably isn't making sense

I'll go back to mulling this over...

I agree the 'isolated case' / 'no danger' comments are an educated guess by LE, no doubt due to expert profiling of the probable kidnapper. I know this causes some to conclude the family was involved, or that kyron himself was a specific premeditated target, but to me it says just the opposite. I think that LE has evidence of, or at the very least, a strong suspicion that this person has moved on, gone 'underground' as it was put by the former FBI agent in an interview. Along this vein, IMO tips regarding persons who suddenly 'dropped out of sight', quit their job or moved without notice in the days immediately following his disappearance would be particularly scrutinized by LE. Because of this, I think it may be helpful if LE released guidelines for the public similar to what police did in Kayleah's case (copied below for reference purposes only)


Check and look along road sides, back roads, fields, dump areas that you may know about in the county or in the towns or areas you drive to or live near. These may be areas that you routinely drive, walk, run, jog, etc. Check any ditches or areas that are typically hard to see when driving by at high speeds. Other potential areas to check are under bridges, in abandoned barns or structures that are not normally occupied, abandoned vehicles, etc.


If you notice a suspicious odor in an area, or see activities in or around abandoned homes or property; if you happen to see circling birds or gathering predators, like coyotes in or around an area, check it out to see if it is safe, or contact the local law enforcement agency near you to have it checked out.


If you own property that is not currently occupied, check it out to make sure it is still secure and that everything inside is in order and as you expect it to be. If you know your neighbor is not home and you have permission to go on their property, check for any broken windows, doors, or suspicious activity or things that may appear out of place to you.


If you live in a rural area and know your neighbors are gone for extended periods of time, drive by those areas and make note of any unusual cars, vehicles or things that appear out of place and are not consistent with what you are familiar with.


If you live near an empty home or building, watch for any suspicious activity or unusual people or vehicles in or around the structure that are not normally there.


Do NOT go in any buildings or homes that you do not own or trespass on private property, to search any areas.


If you see or suspect anything suspicious, do not attempt to pick it up, touch it or contaminate the immediate surrounding areas. If you leave the area before authorities arrive try to leave the same way you came in so other potential items are not disturbed or contaminated.



http://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/23051506/detail.html



the FBI's Behavioral Analysis Unit gave several tips about what to watch for:

»People who come up with an excuse to leave this area unexpectedly for what may sound like a good reason, such as a work-related move, visiting a distant relative or friend.

»People who have missed work, called in sick, or asked to change shifts, particularly on days close to when the girl went missing.

»People with unexplained recent injuries, such as cuts or bruises on the head, hands or arms.

»An unexpected or sudden interest in the status of the investigation, paying very close attention to the media or avoiding conversations or activities related to the case.

»Minimizing or denying a known acquaintance with Kayleah.

»A recent display of nervousness or irritability.

»An increase or decrease in expressing religious beliefs.

»Changes in routine sleep patterns.

»Changes in the “usual” consumption of alcohol, drugs or cigarettes, either an increase or decrease.

»Shaving off facial or head hair, or growing a mustache or beard.

»A person who is no longer driving, or changes the appearance of his or her vehicle for no obvious reason. These include suddenly keeping it in a shed or garage, covering it, painting or selling the vehicle, or reporting it was stolen or given away.


http://www.greeleytribune.com/article/20100416/NEWS/100419759

This is another reason why I believe it's no coincidence this happened during the last "open" school function of the year. Now that all potential witnesses who were present in the school that day have separated and scattered, off living their lives away from school, there is less chance they could collectively take notice of this person's behavior. IMO, this applies regardless of who took Kyron and I think that this much was premeditated. If not the specifics as to what child to abduct or what they'd do once they had them, then at least the choice of this particular day during this particular activity.


Which leads me to wonder if LE ever interviews potential witnesses as a group. Probably not. Wouldn't be admissible I'd think...

I get the feeling that locals are very frustrated in that, other than asking for "tips", LE hasn't involved them in any way. People want to help... and given the minimal opportunities I think that's why we saw such a huge amount of donations for searchers. Now I can understand LE not making public some of that information where it kinda tells people to search, but telling them what to watch for both in their general environment and regarding behavior could lead to a break in this. JMO

JustToSeeYouSmile
06-17-2010, 11:30 AM
Have we all steered away from the theory that this was an abduction for ransom?

I have based on the reward being $25,000

I haven't.....but I know it's unpopular. ;)
The reward is certainly interesting....but then why the request for donations to cease? Why not up the reward? Considering the FBI's involvement and Kyron's case and location, why have they not matched or upped the reward as commonly occurs?
Could a ransom theory also possibly coincide with a trafficking theory? I haven't divorced anything at this point....perhaps not a 'ransom' in the truest sense of the word, but a 'being withheld' for manipulation purposes.

Then again...shoot. Some days, I still think this poor child just got lost looking for a frog.

liz b.
06-17-2010, 11:34 AM
Do we have any verification of when SM left other then what she said?


Good Morning Dairy G.,
Really, we have no verification of most events in this case. When constructing a theory,though, I think we can take certain things at face value ; we have to do that in order to theorize at all...


I do subscribe to that theory which cannot br discussed because of TOS. What I wonder about is this : it's looking as though this might be the perfect crime ; no body, no known perp,no known motive,no known evidence.... Is it possible that a first time murderer could have pulled this off,without a slip up ? Even people who do murder for hire make mistakes. The logistics of the crime are difficult ; get the child out of the school without anyone seeing, get him into a vehicle,again,without anyone seeing, take him from the area, do the crime, dispose of the body. Hard to believe this is the handiwork of someone who has never done it before.....

JustToSeeYouSmile
06-17-2010, 11:35 AM
Yes! It does to me! I've been wondering if the Hormans have some unconventional or embarrassing habits/beliefs/activities that they really don't want to come to light during this investigation. Not so much because they want to avoid embarrassment, but because the public would be scandalized or so caught up in dissecting these actions that the search for Kyron would be overshadowed.




both quotes from http://www.oregonlive.com/portland/index.ssf/2010/06/kyron_hormans_family_makes_emo.html

from http://www.oregonlive.com/portland/index.ssf/2010/06/family_says_please_dont_stop_s.html

Why would these parents be so concerned that merely speaking in public would divert attention from Kyron? When they finally made their first appearance in a press conference, there was nothing bizarre or strange about any of them that I noticed. But if TH and/or KH were doing something that day that would elicit scandalized chatter or finger wagging disapproval, they might have needed time away from the cameras to talk with others who were aware of their activities and ask them not to be all gossipy. And also, it could be that they explained what was happening to LE, who - after consideration - agreed that these activities were likely irrelevant to Kyron's disappearance and would only distract from finding him; and then LE may have agreed to not divulge these details so long as they were thought to be irrelevant.

As random examples - NOT THEORIES or rumors related to the Horman's specifically as these have no basis in fact - what if you (as a parent/couple) had spent a few hours at a couple's sex therapy session. Would you want that to be made public? Probably not. Or if one of you had an addiction (say, gambling or drug) that no one knew about and you were at a 12-step meeting. Or even, if one had such an addiction and were taking part in it at the time of Kyron's disappearance, you wouldn't want the public to know. That type of thing, but the possibilities are numerous.

Exactly what I was trying to say. Thank you for being so much more eloquent!

believe09
06-17-2010, 11:38 AM
In the latest media, LE is targeting specific waterways for evidence with divers. They will not id the area but state that it is an area that was searched before-I like the idea that during a search, they might have found his glasses.

My working theory was previously that Kyron was still inside the school somewhere, but I am going to trust that this has been thoroughly ruled out. So, now my theory is that he was clearly transported somewhere in a vehicle. I have not worked out where or by whom yet, but I also think it speaks volumes that LE is stating clearly there is not a general threat to all children in the area.

TrialAddict
06-17-2010, 11:41 AM
I have no idea yet how my theory will play out, but I am convinced if assumption he was going to go to his mothers THAT day is true then I believe whatever happen to him was planned.

mommya
06-17-2010, 11:52 AM
Well - part of my theory is that they have a solid POI - who they are convinced won't do any harm to anyone else.

ci2i
06-17-2010, 11:56 AM
I go back and forth between three theories:

1. I often wonder if the pic posted of him holding a soccer ball and the pic of the janitor walking down the stairs, and the view outside the window overlooking the soccer field was posted for a reason.

2. Or, he is still inside that school and someone knows ALL the nooks and crannies in there.

3. Kyron could have been trying to be helpful in trying to let someone from the outside, in. I have two boys 7 and 8. When I asked them this question, one of my boys said "they'd get in trouble for leaving the building or letting someone in" and wouldn't do it but the other said he'd be helpful and let them in even though they are told NOT TO. This little boy is bright, quiet and shy, helpful and doesn't like to hurt anyone's feelings and he gave me the answer I was afraid he'd give.

tehcloser
06-17-2010, 12:01 PM
I think my theory is starting to revolve around a possible jealously issue. And that's about all I can say....lol.

*eta.....does NOT involve a minor.

Annazed
06-17-2010, 12:15 PM
... he says, he does not want to stay at school, and SM says honey you have to stay at school you will be fine, so she gets in the car and is in a hurry (maybe in a hurry for a appointment she may have told the teacher about, but it was her appointment not anything to do with Kyron, Appointment has NEVER BEEN VERIFIED to my knowledge) so she does not wait to make sure he goes back to the school. (If this happened just think how sick she would feel.)

I think that your theories make a lot of sense, except I don't understand why SM would lie about this last part (the guilt you think?) and say instead that she left him in the hall.

GrainneDhu
06-17-2010, 12:28 PM
Many people on this board with perp theories seem to be ignoring this. Unless it is not true that LE has indicated that this is an isolated incident (I don't have first hand knowledge of them saying it - just many different sources reporting it), why would you think that a sex offender is out there free right now?

I'm leaning towards a non-family member as the perpetrator but not convinced.

I'm not ignoring that LE said this is an isolated incident but I may be interpreting the phrase "isolated incident" more narrowly than you are.

I believe that LE means that they believe that there will not be another child abducted from that particular school before the end of the school year. I'm not aware of a single case where a child was abducted from an elementary school where there was a second case of abduction from that school within weeks of the first. Not one case.

In the past, LE has been mistaken about whether a specific crime was an isolated one or not. Saying it is an isolated case seems to me to be an educated guess rather than a matter of certainty.

For example, in the Elizabeth Smart case, two weeks after Elizabeth was abducted a screen in her cousin's house was slashed. I clearly remember LE saying they did not think that the two events were related. I also remember that when Ed Smart kept mentioning that incident, many people took it as an indication that he was trying to cast doubt to cover up his own guilt or his knowledge of the guilt of a family member.

Now we know that yes, Brian Mitchell did cut that screen and did intend to abduct the cousin. LE was wrong. Ed Smart wasn't trying to cover up his own guilt, there was indeed a connection.

In the Johnny Gosch case, LE said his disappearance was an isolated case. The newspaper continued to use young teenagers to deliver their papers based on that assurance. Two years later, Eugene Martin disappeared under virtually identical circumstances. Neither case has been solved but it seems highly likely that they were related (and that newspaper no longer employs young carriers).

Kimster
06-17-2010, 12:44 PM
I'm going to put my foot down regarding theories involving minors. A general "an older student at the school like in the Elizabeth Olten case" is okay, but pointing a finger at one minor in particular isn't going to fly.

If this thread becomes one where a mod has to be here 24/7, I can't leave it open. I know we have theories that cannot be posted here due to our guidelines in place at this time. As more information is released, you will find us loosening those guidelines.

cakegirl0905
06-17-2010, 12:47 PM
All I know for sure was that it was someone he knew and trusted. That's all.

BrendaStar
06-17-2010, 12:58 PM
The only conclusion I can come to is that the little guy went off with someone that he knew. They should interview everyone that was at that Science Fair.

This case just breaks my heart.

Garden Variety
06-17-2010, 01:16 PM
The best theory at this point is based on what LE has said so far...that this is an isolated incident and there is no stranger danger. Think about that for a minute and let it sink in. You can only come to one serious conclusion at that point. It seems like they are waiting for more evidence and a body before an arrest is made.

Bingo.

So here's what I'm theorizing.....

1. LE has said virtually nothing substantive for public consumption aside from asserting that it was an isolated event and no stranger danger. If one takes those assertions at face value, the logical conclusion is that LE had evidence that the perp was known to the victim. Just HOW they came to that conclusion we would all like to know. But it seems to me that since school was back in session the following Monday with no additional security measures, police presence, armed guards, survellience camera installation, new sign-in, sign-out procedures, or anything of that nature, that LE knew they were not dealing with a random, opportunistic psychopath.

2. I think this also tells us that this was not a kidnapping for ransom. No ransom demand has been made, as far as we know. Additionally, I don't know what the statistics would show, but my guess is that kidnappings for ransom in this country are far rarer than kidnapping for more nefarious purposes and motivations. Perhaps Patsy Ramsey, if she were still alive, could have been instructive to us in these matters.

2. Recall that Kyron was styled at least for public consumption, a "Missing/Endangered" child until a couple of days ago when the case became a "Criminal Investigation". I find that quite odd.

3. It strikes me that the case of ANY 7 year old who has gone missing from school under the limited facts that have been fed to us would immediately be investigated under the worst case senario principle--that of a criminal investigation. If your 7 year old turned up missing from school would you consider them "Missing/Endangered"? "Missing/Endangered" for more than 10 days? No way. So why did LE continue to suggest to the public, through Press Conferences and Billboards, that Kyron was "Missing/Endangered". Did this "description" of the case allow them to follow and collect evidence that they might not have been able to aquire if the public thought this was a criminal investigation?

4. I, too, believe, that LE has a POI, and that a case is easier to prosecute with a body than without. (I'm so sorry to have written that.)

5. If LE believed that Kyron had left the school of his own volition and then met a bad end, his body would have been found by now.

6. The cat and mouse game is on.

7. And finally, if any of you have been following the Aubrey Sacco case--that of the 23 year old Colorado woman who is missing from a trek in Nepal--I found the following assessment of that case from a profiler to be absolutely fascinating. And I think a number of analogies can be drawn to Kyron's case.
http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/5470434/aubrey_sacco_missing_american_in_nepal_pg4.html?ca t=17

Whome?
06-17-2010, 01:20 PM
I am no sleuther,but this case just breaks my heart,but I
find two things interesting and strange in this case.

I think whoever the person/persons were,were familiar with the
lay-out,security of the school.To have a school in this day and
age that has NO SECURITY CAMERAS is strange to me.This person
knew that.

I find it strange that family has not wanted to appear in public,
possibly if they were shown to the media,someone may put two
and two together,regarding their whereabouts that day,I watched
a brief clip of family at Vigil,it appears they were sitting in the
back of church together,instead of up-front I don't understand
that.This is their child. Not bashing family,just don't understand.

moo

JBean
06-17-2010, 01:25 PM
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indicat
06-17-2010, 01:26 PM
Bingo.

So here's what I'm theorizing.....

1. LE has said virtually nothing substantive for public consumption aside from asserting that it was an isolated event and no stranger danger. If one takes those assertions at face value, the logical conclusion is that LE had evidence that the perp was known to the victim. Just HOW they came to that conclusion we would all like to know. But it seems to me that since school was back in session the following Monday with no additional security measures, police presence, armed guards, survellience camera installation, new sign-in, sign-out procedures, or anything of that nature, that LE knew they were not dealing with a random, opportunistic psychopath.

2. I think this also tells us that this was not a kidnapping for ransom. No ransom demand has been made, as far as we know. Additionally, I don't know what the statistics would show, but my guess is that kidnappings for ransom in this country are far rarer than kidnapping for more nefarious purposes and motivations. Perhaps Patsy Ramsey, if she were still alive, could have been instructive to us in these matters.

2. Recall that Kyron was styled at least for public consumption, a "Missing/Endangered" child until a couple of days ago when the case became a "Criminal Investigation". I find that quite odd.

3. It strikes me that the case of ANY 7 year old who has gone missing from school under the limited facts that have been fed to us would immediately be investigated under the worst case senario principle--that of a criminal investigation. If your 7 year old turned up missing from school would you consider them "Missing/Endangered"? "Missing/Endangered" for more than 10 days? No way. So why did LE continue to suggest to the public, through Press Conferences and Billboards, that Kyron was "Missing/Endangered". Did this "description" of the case allow them to follow and collect evidence that they might not have been able to aquire if the public thought this was a criminal investigation?

4. I, too, believe, that LE has a POI, and that a case is easier to prosecute with a body than without. (I'm so sorry to have written that.)

5. If LE believed that Kyron had left the school of his own volition and then met a bad end, his body would have been found by now.

6. The cat and mouse game is on.

7. And finally, if any of you have been following the Aubrey Sacco case--that of the 23 year old Colorado woman who is missing from a trek in Nepal--I found the following assessment of that case from a profiler to be absolutely fascinating. And I think a number of analogies can be drawn to Kyron's case.
http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/5470434/aubrey_sacco_missing_american_in_nepal_pg4.html?ca t=17

If I could ever get my thoughts out in a post the way they sound in my head, this is what it would read, Thank You!

RubyRed
06-17-2010, 01:28 PM
Check and look along road sides, back roads, fields, dump areas that you may know about in the county or in the towns or areas you drive to or live near. These may be areas that you routinely drive, walk, run, jog, etc. Check any ditches or areas that are typically hard to see when driving by at high speeds. Other potential areas to check are under bridges, in abandoned barns or structures that are not normally occupied, abandoned vehicles, etc.


If you notice a suspicious odor in an area, or see activities in or around abandoned homes or property; if you happen to see circling birds or gathering predators, like coyotes in or around an area, check it out to see if it is safe, or contact the local law enforcement agency near you to have it checked out.


If you own property that is not currently occupied, check it out to make sure it is still secure and that everything inside is in order and as you expect it to be. If you know your neighbor is not home and you have permission to go on their property, check for any broken windows, doors, or suspicious activity or things that may appear out of place to you.


If you live in a rural area and know your neighbors are gone for extended periods of time, drive by those areas and make note of any unusual cars, vehicles or things that appear out of place and are not consistent with what you are familiar with.


If you live near an empty home or building, watch for any suspicious activity or unusual people or vehicles in or around the structure that are not normally there.


Do NOT go in any buildings or homes that you do not own or trespass on private property, to search any areas.


If you see or suspect anything suspicious, do not attempt to pick it up, touch it or contaminate the immediate surrounding areas. If you leave the area before authorities arrive try to leave the same way you came in so other potential items are not disturbed or contaminated.



http://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/23051506/detail.html



ETA part deux: Well, I wasn't wrong, I guess. Just had these lists combined into one in my mind. (I'm old! leave me alone!)

the FBI's Behavioral Analysis Unit gave several tips about what to watch for:

»People who come up with an excuse to leave this area unexpectedly for what may sound like a good reason, such as a work-related move, visiting a distant relative or friend.

»People who have missed work, called in sick, or asked to change shifts, particularly on days close to when the girl went missing.

»People with unexplained recent injuries, such as cuts or bruises on the head, hands or arms.

»An unexpected or sudden interest in the status of the investigation, paying very close attention to the media or avoiding conversations or activities related to the case.

»Minimizing or denying a known acquaintance with Kayleah.

»A recent display of nervousness or irritability.

»An increase or decrease in expressing religious beliefs.

»Changes in routine sleep patterns.

»Changes in the “usual” consumption of alcohol, drugs or cigarettes, either an increase or decrease.

»Shaving off facial or head hair, or growing a mustache or beard.

»A person who is no longer driving, or changes the appearance of his or her vehicle for no obvious reason. These include suddenly keeping it in a shed or garage, covering it, painting or selling the vehicle, or reporting it was stolen or given away.


http://www.greeleytribune.com/article/20100416/NEWS/100419759



sbbm

I think those are excellent tips on things to watch for. A perp always changes their routine on the day the incident happened or the very next day.

JBean
06-17-2010, 01:30 PM
If you are leaning towards a family member, feel free to post your thoughts and opinions civilly and respectfully. How did you arrive at this? statistics? gut? information? If it emotionally based on the way someone looks leave it off the board LOL.

I don't have enough info to create a good working theory right now, so interested in what all of you have to say from all perspectives.

human
06-17-2010, 01:48 PM
My question is-why did LE not give all or any of the things to watch for that Calliope has mentioned and requoted in post 94?

The lack of that kind of information and the lack of a profile really impact my thoughts.

As far as not clearing the family, people have mentioned other cases where no one in the family was the perp.

We do not know that in any of those cases, that LE was not able to clear the family because there were inconsistencies that meant that LE could not clear them.

I just turned out that the perp was someone else.

Angel4u2Whisper2
06-17-2010, 01:50 PM
Respectfully, I submited the above theory I wrote the theory based on what I have observed of the SM. Why? Yes, I know that everyone is different they respond and behave differently with tons of variables. The collection of those things paints a picture (in a sense) this picture then is seen like a story or feeling. For me it is almost like a what one may feel walking through an art gallery and one of the paintings take your breathe away! You know that it telling you something. That something is what I base my theory on.

Wendy101
06-17-2010, 01:56 PM
I have no idea yet how my theory will play out, but I am convinced it has something to do with the fact he was going to go to his mothers THAT day. I do believe it was planned.

In one of my theories that is WHY it happened that day.

Angel4u2Whisper2
06-17-2010, 02:03 PM
IMO, There are disorders that can cause an individual (male or female) to seem unbalanced. Sometimes they are undiagnosed personality disorders and the behaviors also can be misunderstood or easily explained away by those who know the person.

It happens more so IMOO when the individual isn't carrying around a "label" from the DSM, people may see something is off even though behaviors can be hidden for sometime.

BeanE
06-17-2010, 02:03 PM
I have no idea yet how my theory will play out, but I am convinced it has something to do with the fact he was going to go to his mothers THAT day. I do believe it was planned.

Hi Clown. Can you please share the link to the source you confirmed that Kyron was going to his biomom's that day? We're trying to see what we can confirm on this in another thread specifically on this topic.

If you'll please post the link, I'll make sure it gets over to the other thread.

Thanks,
BeanE
Mod

RubyRed
06-17-2010, 02:03 PM
My question is-why did LE not give all or any of the things to watch for that Calliope has mentioned and requoted in post 94?

The lack of that kind of information and the lack of a profile really impact my thoughts.

As far as not clearing the family, people have mentioned other cases where no one in the family was the perp.

We do not know that in any of those cases, that LE was not able to clear the family because there were inconsistencies that meant that LE could not clear them.

I just turned out that the perp was someone else.


Instead of LE always saying "no comment" That list of things to watch for would have been very helpful for the people of that area to hear.jmo

TrialAddict
06-17-2010, 02:08 PM
The photo of him alone in the somewhat darken classroom, standing in front of his project the morning he was last seen bother's me. Don't ask me to explain why. I have more then a few reasons and need to think about them some more.

TrialAddict
06-17-2010, 02:17 PM
Hi Clown. Can you please share the link to the source you confirmed that Kyron was going to his biomom's that day? We're trying to see what we can confirm on this in another thread specifically on this topic.

If you'll please post the link, I'll make sure it gets over to the other thread.

Thanks,
BeanE
Mod

I was going by what I have seen on here. I edited my post

Kimster
06-17-2010, 02:20 PM
Let's get back on topic as to what you think might have happened to Kyron and why. General discussion posts are going to be removed soon. I'll give everyone the opportunity to edit them into their own theory first in case I'm missing the point. I'm referring to a couple of posts above this one. :)

Garden Variety
06-17-2010, 02:22 PM
How to Analyze Like a Profiler

I think this 6/9/2010 article by (non-FBI) profiler Radell Hunter is extraordinarily fascinating and may be of keen interest to many of you. It certainly was to me.

Ms Hunter has essentially written a primer on how to analyze a potential criminal case by taking the few known facts of the Aubrey Sacco case and illustrating how she develops a profile of the victim and potential perpetrators. This case also has a paucity of known facts.

It's timely reading, fellow sleuths.

Sorry I'm too deficient to make the link clickable. If you simply go to www.associatedcontent.com and then search for key phrase Aubrey Sacco: Missing American in Nepal--A Case Profile you will find it.

Perhaps a mod or other person with techy-talent could make this link clickable?

Happy reading. (Sad case too. Heartbreaking.)

trigger
06-17-2010, 02:36 PM
The photo of him alone in the somewhat darken classroom, standing in front of his project the morning he was last seen bother's me. Don't ask me to explain why. I have more then a few reasons and need to think about them some more.

One picture of him in a classroom bothered me, IMO, hes not smiling, and hes always smiling...My heart sank when I saw it.

Rubyred posted 65 pics of him. Look at pic#19...

http://www.cbsnews.com/2300-504083_162-10003676-18.html?tag=page

Emma Peel
06-17-2010, 02:37 PM
My question is-why did LE not give all or any of the things to watch for that Calliope has mentioned and requoted in post 94?


The lack of that kind of information and the lack of a profile really impact my thoughts.

As far as not clearing the family, people have mentioned other cases where no one in the family was the perp.

We do not know that in any of those cases, that LE was not able to clear the family because there were inconsistencies that meant that LE could not clear them.

I just turned out that the perp was someone else.

Admittedly, this lack of perp-profiling with the public impacts my "theorizing". This is why I tend to think they have a pretty good suspect, and are canvassing and searching diligently for evidence.

To build on thoughts about this LE approach here:

Highlighting for scrutiny:
LE's transition to criminal investigation, followed by requests for video, wide publication of Kyron's clothing details & glasses, etc., and lack of publication of any perp-profiling guidelines to the public.

Exploring: why does LE want public to know what Kyron was wearing? Possible Reasons -

(a) because witnesses may have seen Kyron out & about pre-death with the still "friendly perp" and they hope to prompt memory and get folks to review those private surveillance tapes and decide to admit them

or

(b) in the event public/someone comes across discarded clothing/glasses or same in an odd place (such as vehicle, trunk, garage, barn)

or

(c) in the event public/someone comes across remains with clothing.

This LE approach supports all my previous theorizing regarding perp-known-to-family, AND perp now known to LE.

Also, LE emphasis on the glasses haunts me - reminds me of the little significant "trophies" that serials keep from their victims (as seen on crime-fantasy TV). That is likely my imagination working overtime there. But.. ugh. :cry:

seeking truth
06-17-2010, 02:42 PM
I agree with the bolded, for sure. And, IMO, the glasses were meant to be found.I hope I am correct in believing that, though no discussion, per se, is allowed here, we can jump off of other people's posts in this "working theories" thread. Like so many here, I am treading carefully...

IRule254, in quoted post above, is responding to the idea that Kyron's glasses may have been found and that is why photos of him have been released showing him without his glasses.

I wonder, though. Instead of his glasses being "meant to be found," as IRule postulates, maybe Kyron's glasses were kept by the perpetrator and they have been found in his or her home.

This is just an idea; speculation as to why we are looking at pics of Kyron without his glasses. I'll add this, though:

I do not think the fact that pictures have been released of him without his glasses was done because we are meant to be on the lookout for him. I believe it is a calculated move by LE and I do not think they believe that Kyron is alive. WHY all the billboards? Maybe LE would not find it prudent to share what they know with those paying for these billboards.

OR...I am way off base. It is hard to get around those billboards, unless they are totally separate from the investigation.

Of course, this is all my opinion.

RubyRed
06-17-2010, 02:46 PM
The photo of him alone in the somewhat darken classroom, standing in front of his project the morning he was last seen bother's me. Don't ask me to explain why. I have more then a few reasons and need to think about them some more.

One picture of him in a classroom bothered me, IMO, hes not smiling, and hes always smiling...My heart sank when I saw it.

Rubyred posted 65 pics of him. Look at pic#19...

http://www.cbsnews.com/2300-504083_162-10003676-18.html?tag=page

I have these pics posted in the Skyline Elementary School thread if you want to discuss these pics there.

Calliope
06-17-2010, 02:52 PM
How to Analyze Like a Profiler

I think this 6/9/2010 article by (non-FBI) profiler Radell Hunter is extraordinarily fascinating and may be of keen interest to many of you. It certainly was to me.

Ms Hunter has essentially written a primer on how to analyze a potential criminal case by taking the few known facts of the Aubrey Sacco case and illustrating how she develops a profile of the victim and potential perpetrators. This case also has a paucity of known facts.

It's timely reading, fellow sleuths.

Sorry I'm too deficient to make the link clickable. If you simply go to www.associatedcontent.com and then search for key phrase Aubrey Sacco: Missing American in Nepal--A Case Profile you will find it.

Perhaps a mod or other person with techy-talent could make this link clickable?

Happy reading. (Sad case too. Heartbreaking.)
http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/5470434/aubrey_sacco_missing_american_in_nepal.html?cat=17

ElizaAvalon
06-17-2010, 03:05 PM
I theorize that LE & the FBI have a perp in mind. I theorize the reason that they showed pics of Kyron w/o his glasses on is b/c they found his glasses. I theorize Kyron's perp is someone he knows & trusts very well. I theorize the reason the authorities are asking for pics & videos of the day before Kyron went missing is b/c they're looking for a specific vehicle to be linked to a "dry run". I theorize LE is figuring out the motive right now.

We're on the same page, as usual, JG! Nice to see you again.

PortlandMama
06-17-2010, 03:11 PM
I theorize that LE & the FBI have a perp in mind. I theorize the reason that they showed pics of Kyron w/o his glasses on is b/c they found his glasses. I theorize Kyron's perp is someone he knows & trusts very well. I theorize the reason the authorities are asking for pics & videos of the day before Kyron went missing is b/c they're looking for a specific vehicle to be linked to a "dry run". I theorize LE is figuring out the motive right now.

Since publishing pictures of him without his glasses, however, they have also released very detailed pictures of the type of glasses he wore. Front, back and--inside the frame--the etched name of the manufacturer. So I'm not staking too much on the "without the glasses" pictures except that alive or not, he is very possibly without them now.

ElizaAvalon
06-17-2010, 03:17 PM
Since publishing pictures of him without his glasses, however, they have also released very detailed pictures of the type of glasses he wore. Front, back and--inside the frame--the etched name of the manufacturer. So I'm not staking too much on the "without the glasses" pictures except that alive or not, he is very possibly without them now.

Perhaps they have the glasses in custody.

I'm wondering if he was possibly seen without them.

GrainneDhu
06-17-2010, 03:26 PM
I can't find the picture of the interior hall of the school showing the janitor headed down the stairs right now.

IF I am recalling it correctly, though, I have a theory as to how a friendly looking stranger could have abducted Kyron that doesn't involve the perpetrator entering the school at all.

As I recall the picture, there is a flight of stairs headed down to a blue exit door with a pane of glass next to it. I think it would be possible for someone to approach that window from the outside and wait to see a child alone through the glass. Most of the people in the hallway would not have a view of the window because it is lower than the level of the hallway itself. Anyone looking through that window would be able to see anyone in the hallway who could see them (direct line of sight).

In most places, security cameras are obvious. All the perpetrator would have had to do is examine the outside of the school to know he was not being recorded.

I theorise that when the perpetrator saw an unaccompanied child through the glass, he knocked to attract Kyron's attention and indicated he needed help opening the door (or the door was already locked from the outside).

It was a busy day, with strange adults going in and out. Kyron went down to open the door and the stranger asked him to help bring something into the school.

If at any point the perpetrator realised someone had seen him with Kyron, he would have aborted the abduction.

The point of no return would have been the point at which the perpetrator did something obviously suspicious with Kyron that could not be plausibly denied.

If the perpetrator had a vehicle like an SUV, van or minivan, that point of no return could have happened inside of the vehicle. He could have opened the door to the vehicle and said something like "go back in there and grab the blue box, okay?" All that there would have been for a potential witness to see would be a small boy getting into the vehicle willingly, which might easily be overlooked or forgotten.

This theory assumes that there is a perpetrator and that the perpetrator is willing to take a moderate amount of risk. I think these are fair assumptions to make, given the known facts of the case.

Kimster
06-17-2010, 03:37 PM
A few posts were removed for the mod squad to review. No one has violated TOS, but I wanted to make mention so y'all don't wonder. It's all good - please continue.

ETA: The removed posts will remain removed. We are not going to delve into anyone's personal life unless LE says they are a POI. This is how we operate on Websleuths.

If we have a named POI, those rules will change and the removed posts will be returned.

tehcloser
06-17-2010, 03:40 PM
To me, if LE had the glasses, they would not have given out such a detailed description. There would be no need to. Well unless they were trying to fool the perp, and hence this is where we start going in circles whilst waiting for news.

Whome?
06-17-2010, 03:44 PM
I am not leaning toward a stranger in this abduction.
I think if police think this was a stranger abduction
then there would be reason for the community at large
to watch and guard their children,to be on the look
out for strangers etc.

I think that the purpose of securing video from surrounding
businesses,is to see if a known vehicle was spotted at certain
times where the alibis said they were not.

In my opinion the police know who did this,(hence the
emotion from the police) at the press conferences,
("how could you do this,to him) Otherwise I think the
police would have no choice but to crack down on this
community and advise all to watch their children.

This has not happen in this case,and I find it astounding

JMHO

RubyRed
06-17-2010, 03:54 PM
I can't find the picture of the interior hall of the school showing the janitor headed down the stairs right now.

IF I am recalling it correctly, though, I have a theory as to how a friendly looking stranger could have abducted Kyron that doesn't involve the perpetrator entering the school at all.

As I recall the picture, there is a flight of stairs headed down to a blue exit door with a pane of glass next to it. I think it would be possible for someone to approach that window from the outside and wait to see a child alone through the glass. Most of the people in the hallway would not have a view of the window because it is lower than the level of the hallway itself. Anyone looking through that window would be able to see anyone in the hallway who could see them (direct line of sight).

.

SBBM

I have that pic posted on the Skyline School thread. I enlarged that pic and that does not appear to be a door but looks more like bristol board.

winterrose
06-17-2010, 03:56 PM
Oh geesh,I've been fighting within my own mind as to what I really believe happened,because I hope I'm very wrong.But,allowing the kids to go back to school that Monday,saying this is isolated.I think they're looking for either he was killed or turned over to a known acquaintance,possibly relative...

In people who are extremely social and want to appear they have a perfect life,the stress of the reality could cause someone to find ways to keep up that appearance.The perfect Mom,volunteering,children involved in all the community activities available,soccer,swimming,cubscouts,and volunteering in the school,reading with kids,class projects,etc.I mean one of these activities keeps mothers running on the road all the time,but so many leads me to believe other things.

I have wondered with the pattern of volunteering and involvement,why that day the SM didn't stay and be one of the parents who helped in the class,of all days,one of the last main events of the year and the talentshow,especially.And the detachment of another child,sharing a child with another mother all the time,the emotional stress of all of this,and all the things involved in the everyday life could have been the boiling point.

I think he was possibly hidden to make a situation where he has to go live with his mother,because the father doesn't want to give up custody.But her perfect life is with her daughter and her husband.I can look at his face at the pressers and see he knows something and is torn up about it and has to wait to find out what happened.She has relatives in other places and I think she took him to meet up with one of them.I don't think she thought she'd be suspected,because it was the perfect opportunity with all that was in the school that day to blame it on a stranger.I hope I'm wrong.

carole
06-17-2010, 04:04 PM
I've wondered if Kyron had been talking/asking if he could live full time with his mom and stepdad, essentially flip-flopping the current custody arrangement.

Whome?
06-17-2010, 04:07 PM
Oh geesh,I've been fighting within my own mind as to what I really believe happened,because I hope I'm very wrong.But,allowing the kids to go back to school that Monday,saying this is isolated.I think they're looking for either he was killed or turned over to a known acquaintance,possibly relative...

In people who are extremely social and want to appear they have a perfect life,the stress of the reality could cause someone to find ways to keep up that appearance.The perfect Mom,volunteering,children involved in all the community activities available,soccer,swimming,cubscouts,and volunteering in the school,reading with kids,class projects,etc.I mean one of these activities keeps mothers running on the road all the time,but so many leads me to believe other things.

I have wondered with the pattern of volunteering and involvement,why that day the SM didn't stay and be one of the parents who helped in the class,of all days,one of the last main events of the year and the talentshow,especially.And the detachment of another child,sharing a child with another mother all the time,the emotional stress of all of this,and all the things involved in the everyday life could have been the boiling point.

I think he was possibly hidden to make a situation where he has to go live with his mother,because the father doesn't want to give up custody.But her perfect life is with her daughter and her husband.I can look at his face at the pressers and see he knows something and is torn up about it and has to wait to find out what happened.She has relatives in other places and I think she took him to meet up with one of them.I don't think she thought she'd be suspected,because it was the perfect opportunity with all that was in the school that day to blame it on a stranger.I hope I'm wrong.


I agree,this seems to be most logical scenario to me also,I have
also wondered about her involvement with the school that day
and why she did not stay of all days. :waitasec:

Jersey*Girl
06-17-2010, 04:08 PM
We're on the same page, as usual, JG! Nice to see you again.

OMGosh! I've miss you guys sooo much...busy with boys & their sports!

Since publishing pictures of him without his glasses, however, they have also released very detailed pictures of the type of glasses he wore. Front, back and--inside the frame--the etched name of the manufacturer. So I'm not staking too much on the "without the glasses" pictures except that alive or not, he is very possibly without them now.

Hey mama! Welcome to Websleuths! You make a valid point but I personally think law enforcement have his glasses. I would think that if they didn't, they'd keep the model # to themselves so as to filter out the tips that really may not be linked. IOW - several glasses within a brand may resemble each other, but the model # is what would set them apart. So, why release the model # instead of just a pic of them made by that particular company? KWIM? I think there's more to why they released the model #.

gliving
06-17-2010, 04:14 PM
I agree,this seems to be most logical scenario to me also,I have
also wondered about her involvement with the school that day
and why she did not stay of all days. :waitasec:

I'm guessing the real perp made sure she would leave early so they could make their move.

:waitasec:

October
06-17-2010, 04:16 PM
I think my theory is starting to revolve around a possible jealously issue. And that's about all I can say....lol.

*eta.....does NOT involve a minor.

This has been my theory from day one as well. The more I see, the more convinced I am of it. That's all I'm going to say.

RubyRed
06-17-2010, 04:24 PM
Possible body found.


Possibly Body Found? - Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community

glorybug
06-17-2010, 04:31 PM
I find it very odd that people can sift through 60 somthing photos and find one or two where he doesn't look overjoyed, and then somehow use that to bolster a theory. I looked at all of those photos, and what struck me, as it has every time I've seen one of them, is how HAPPY he looks. Dad also appears very happy. Since SM is not in most of the pics, she's obviously the one taking pictures. Think about it. In most of the cases where children were falsely abducted and the family actually was responible for their disappearance, there are very few pics of the child taken by the family. I've seen cases where there was only one pic available and it wasn't even taken by the family.

I don't even want to imagine what people would think of me based on the expressions on my kids faces in pictures. Obviously Kyron liked smiling for the camera. My children do not like posing like that, so a lot of their pictures show them looking annoyed because mom is taking even MORE pictures.

Imagine how heartbreaking it must have been to have had to look through all those pics in order to provide them to LE.

PDXMom
06-17-2010, 04:32 PM
Oh geesh,I've been fighting within my own mind as to what I really believe happened,because I hope I'm very wrong.But,allowing the kids to go back to school that Monday,saying this is isolated.I think they're looking for either he was killed or turned over to a known acquaintance,possibly relative...

In people who are extremely social and want to appear they have a perfect life,the stress of the reality could cause someone to find ways to keep up that appearance.The perfect Mom,volunteering,children involved in all the community activities available,soccer,swimming,cubscouts,and volunteering in the school,reading with kids,class projects,etc.I mean one of these activities keeps mothers running on the road all the time,but so many leads me to believe other things.

I have wondered with the pattern of volunteering and involvement,why that day the SM didn't stay and be one of the parents who helped in the class,of all days,one of the last main events of the year and the talentshow,especially.And the detachment of another child,sharing a child with another mother all the time,the emotional stress of all of this,and all the things involved in the everyday life could have been the boiling point.

I think he was possibly hidden to make a situation where he has to go live with his mother,because the father doesn't want to give up custody.But her perfect life is with her daughter and her husband.I can look at his face at the pressers and see he knows something and is torn up about it and has to wait to find out what happened.She has relatives in other places and I think she took him to meet up with one of them.I don't think she thought she'd be suspected,because it was the perfect opportunity with all that was in the school that day to blame it on a stranger.I hope I'm wrong.

I hadn't thought of this scenario at all. So, along these lines, would one expect him to be alive and safe? (oh god I hope it's true) How would a relative relinquish him without implicating him/herself? Or would they? The goal of the alleged abductor would be that custody would be returned to BM when it's resolved? Just trying to think it through.

I agree that SM seems to have a lot on her plate, but I have known other moms who really need to be the Super Volunteer. Very competitive types, but generally working for common good. I keep coming back to the idea that a woman who kills is usually unstable (I'm sorry, I don't know whom on this forum to give credit for this!). We know so very little about SM's personality, but wouldn't she have gone nuts by now with all the pressure and surveillance? Maybe, maybe not. I'd really like to hear more on this theory. (I really hope I haven't violated any rules here)

Ms Suzanne
06-17-2010, 04:46 PM
I feel everyone should be looked at.But I feel the SM and father should both be looked at.

awakewriter
06-17-2010, 04:47 PM
So much about law enforcement behavior reminds me of LE behavior in the Somer Thompson case.

justlogic
06-17-2010, 04:52 PM
Hi all. This is my first post here. I think it is within the tos. My only sources of information are the same news reports and witness interviews many of you have seen.
Approximately 8:15am Friday June 4th the Skyline school PTA president said she saw Kyron and his stepmother standing near Kyron's science fair exhibit. Kyrons teacher also said she saw Kyron with his stepmother in her classroom some time before 8:45am. Approximately 8:45am the stepmother claims after watching Kyron walk towards the hallway to his classroom she left the school and that was the last time she saw Kyron.

Kyron was scheduled to be with his classroom group for the science fair tour from 9:00am until 10:00am that day and his stated destination according to Kyrons stepmother was his classroom.
Kyron was also scheduled to be in a school talent show from 1:00pm until 2:24pm. Unfortunately Kyrons stepmother did not attend the school talent show with the other parents. Around 9:00am a classmate and friend of Kyron said he spoke with Kyron in the hallway near the stairs. This friend said Kyron told him he was going downstairs to see a cool electric display. No one else seems to have talked to Kyron that day or is as yet reported to have done so. The last time this friend saw Kyron was at that moment as Kyron went down the stairs. No one has seen 7 year old Kyron Horman since. The friend said the time was 9:00am. I am not aware of any reports of Kyrons activity's between 8:45am and 9:00am. I am not aware of any report that Kyron went into his classroom. If both the 8:45am and 9:00am times and stories are correct, We must believe Kyron just stood alone in the hallway for 15 minutes after telling his stepmother he was going to his classroom and while walking down the stairs he simply disappeared from the face of the earth. The perpetrator of this crime wants us to believe this and will come out fighting to defend it.

9:00am was the scheduled time for all of the children to be in their classes. If Kyron had told his step mother he was going to his class at 8:45am. There must be a reason Kyron never got to his classroom. Did Kyron wander? No, of course not.

Kyron was headed to his moment of glory. I think his friend is just wrong about the time. Kyrons past behavior model shows he does what he says he is going to do. Kyron followed the rules. Kyron was known and described as a good sweet and timid child. Kyron had no known problems with tardiness,absence,wandering or other negative behaviors in general. He was not the type of child to just wander away.

If the 8:45am story is correct Kyron was so extremely eager to get to his class and begin the tour that he headed for class 15 minutes early and fully intended to go there and would not waiver from that. It is not likely Kyron would stray from his objective. Kyron had waited for his moment in the sun for weeks. Kyron would not be late for his greatest event. Kyron was so very proud of his exhibit, that his sole desire was to get there early to assure he would be on time to show his exhibit to his classmates. What possible reasoning could have distracted Kyron from his moment of pride and joy?



This same friend and classmate was in class at the 9:00am roll call. The friend was not in the hallway at 9:00am and so it is reasonable to assume some time had to pass between that hallway conversation and the 9:00am role call. This same friend was one of the first to notice Kyron was not in class for the roll call and this surprised him. Why would it surprise him if he had just spoken to Kyron at 9:00am and he knew Kyron was going downstairs. Why would he expect Kyron to make roll call on time. The schedule was 9:00am roll call, form small groups and tour science fair until 10:00am.

There was nothing reported in their conversation about Kyron not having time to go downstairs. Kyron and his friend must have both thought Kyron had time to go downstairs and return to his class for the 9:00am role call.
This conversation very possibly took place before 9:00am. It very possibly took place around 8:46am just after Kyron left his stepmother. The friend being only 8 years old may not be as aware of the actual time as he believes. Witnesses report what they believe they saw, what they believe happened, what they believe the time was. A lot of the time it just doesn’t fit.

It is reasonable to assume the friends grandmother told him that it was time to go to class because it starts at 9:00am. He could then think it is 9:00am because his grandmother told him so.


This same friend also said he saw Kyron's step mom leave without Kyron, and that is all he said about that. I am not aware of any report that he said he saw her leave the building, go outside get in her car etc. The friend was on the second floor with Kyron so at best, all he could have seen was step mom go down the stairs. He did not say who went down the stairs first, Kyron or step mom. The friend only said they went down separately. The friend did not say he ever saw Kyron in his classroom that day. The friend said he saw Kyron in the hallway. Presumably just after Kyron left his stepmother. The friend was on the second floor. The friend had no way of knowing what happened on the first floor.

All of the events mentioned here took place on the second floor and currently all of the public news reports, video witness interviews etc, that I am aware of, are all second floor events.


The conversation between Kyron and his friend very possibly took place some time before 9:00am. I think Kyron was taken out of that school before 9:00am. It had to happen before the kids were in their seats looking out in the window. It had to happen before 9:00am because even though the halls would be momentarily clear, any people in them would stand out. A mass of parents leaving between 8:45am and 9:00am would provide excellent cover. It would have to happen before 9:00am to take advantage of the crowd and chaos that came with it. The school normally opens to students at 8:35am and the final bell rings at 8:45am. On Friday June 4 2010 the school opened early so students could tour the science fair with their parents. The school opened at 8:am that day. The bell times were not reset for the special event that day and all bells sounded at their normal times and so the final bell rang at 8:45am. This is presumably how Kyrons stepmother is certain of the time she claims she left him. That 8:45am bell also signaled go time and a plan was enacted by someone that knew the schools routines and procedures very well.

Taking a child from a school hallway is a high risk proposition for anyone at any time. Add a special event with hundreds of potential witnesses to the equation and a snatch and grab is just out of the question. While pedophiles may go to these events to meet children by way of meeting parents and posing as a safe friend, it would not be a good time for most to actually take a child. But the crowd and confusion could have been used as an advantage to someone with another plan. Someone that knew a phone call would not be made even after the absence was discovered. Someone needed time for the act and alibi and someone knew they would have it. This was not a crime of simple opportunity. This was also not done by some older kid. This act was committed by someone with adult knowledge,skills and with extremely detailed planing ability. You need a real plan to pull this off. You need to be extremely organized.

Kyron knew his abductor very very well and Kyron had no idea what was going to happen as he walked off very willingly with this person. To make this work your victim has to know you, trust you and even better, be waiting for you. Who did Kyron know and trust that he would wait for and leave with? Leaving without question or hesitation? Kicking and screaming would bring quick attention. Who would he voluntarily get in a car with? Who worked and or volunteered at that school enough to know the building, the security and the lack of it, who would blend in the best, who would be the most invisible while in plain sight. Who could best exit with Kyron unappreciated.

My guess is Kyron going down those stairs was a step in a very specific 8:45am plan. Kyron was very possibly sent down those stairs by someone he trusted. My guess is Kyrons abductor was positioned very close to Kyron that mourning watching Kyron and waiting for that 8:45am bell. At 8:45am the bell rang and Kyrons abductor moved to a new position as the plan was put in motion. Kyrons abductor moved away from the second floor activity's of the day. Kyrons abductor would want to appear to be exiting alone. Kyrons abductor would move to the first floor so that they would not be noticeably seen with Kyron.

On the first floor Kyrons abductor was no longer making contact with anyone, no longer chatting with others. On the first floor Kyrons abductor would want to blend in and be invisible. Transparency would be vital. This person would not be appreciably noticeable to anyone. This person would fit so well in the environment that their activity was completely unappreciated. The attentions of the staff, students and visitors were completely focused on the science fair and the excitement. The search for Kyron brought in new information and now the focus has shifted to the criminal investigation. The investigations in these cases begin inside and work their way out. Who was Kyron with last? Who was close to Kyron? Who had the ability? Who had the knowledge? Who had the opportunity? Who had a motive? Who had a vendetta? Who felt Kyron was a burden. Who felt Kyron was an obstacle? Who did Kyron trust enough to leave with? The bell rang at 8:45am and before 9:00am Kyron was gone.

No More
06-17-2010, 05:04 PM
Friday Theory

I have a generic theory and you could call it a Friday Theory. IMO crimes that are committed on a Friday, as opposed to any other day of the week, tend to be premeditated and I suspect that a motive (however wrong-headed) is that the perp is correcting some perceived problem, inequity, or long-held grudge. I think Friday is relevant because I think it is anchored precisely between the end of a work week and a weekend. The timing is important as I think the self-centered perp is trying to minimize the impact to their life and schedule, as bizarre as that sounds.

In contrast IMO crimes of passion (what a bad phrase!) probably end up being committed randomly whenever, any meaningless day or time of the week.

tehcloser
06-17-2010, 05:09 PM
justlogic,

Excellent first post and welcome to ws, keep em' coming!!!!!!!!!!

seeking truth
06-17-2010, 05:15 PM
Welcome, justlogic.

Your post, your theory, is beautiful in it's simplicity, chilling in it believability and probability.

Excellent, awesome reasoning, and extremely LOGICAL.

Why reach for answers when the answer is right in front of us, no matter how hard it is to fathom?

Angel4u2Whisper2
06-17-2010, 05:31 PM
Nicely said Justlogic and Welcome!

winterrose
06-17-2010, 05:34 PM
I hadn't thought of this scenario at all. So, along these lines, would one expect him to be alive and safe? (oh god I hope it's true) How would a relative relinquish him without implicating him/herself? Or would they? The goal of the alleged abductor would be that custody would be returned to BM when it's resolved? Just trying to think it through.

I agree that SM seems to have a lot on her plate, but I have known other moms who really need to be the Super Volunteer. Very competitive types, but generally working for common good. I keep coming back to the idea that a woman who kills is usually unstable (I'm sorry, I don't know whom on this forum to give credit for this!). We know so very little about SM's personality, but wouldn't she have gone nuts by now with all the pressure and surveillance? Maybe, maybe not. I'd really like to hear more on this theory. (I really hope I haven't violated any rules here)

This is why I said my mind is fighting what I think it could be in this scenario.In this scenario,I don't see him being passed on to someone.It's what I would hope,since this whole thing would be irrational in the first place if this was the intent to get rid of him.But,appearances are deceiving and even though we can take any scenario and fit theories in it,doesn't make it so.I didn't even feel comfortable expressing my theory,because until we find out what happened,everyone we see is a victim.Based on what we have at this time,much of that theory is very feasible,except the last part of what was done after he left the school.

BrendaStar
06-17-2010, 05:38 PM
Wow! Justlogic.....you analysis sent chills down my spine. There is so much logic to what you wrote. Welcome to WebSleuths!

raeann
06-17-2010, 05:40 PM
Interesting theory....but class DID begin at 8:45 am, there was a warning bell at 8:35 and the final bell at 8:45. Then the kids began their tours. This is one of the few, confirmed absolute facts that we do have in this case.

jmo

swa
06-17-2010, 05:42 PM
Hi all. This is my first post here. I think it is within the tos. My only sources of information are the same news reports and witness interviews many of you have seen.
Approximately 8:15am Friday June 4th the Skyline school PTA president said she saw Kyron and his stepmother standing near Kyron's science fair exhibit. Kyrons teacher also said she saw Kyron with his stepmother in her classroom some time before 8:45am. Approximately 8:45am the stepmother claims after watching Kyron walk towards the hallway to his classroom she left the school and that was the last time she saw Kyron.

Kyron was scheduled to be with his classroom group for the science fair tour from 9:00am until 10:00am that day and his stated destination according to Kyrons stepmother was his classroom.
Kyron was also scheduled to be in a school talent show from 1:00pm until 2:24pm. Unfortunately Kyrons stepmother did not attend the school talent show with the other parents. Around 9:00am a classmate and friend of Kyron said he spoke with Kyron in the hallway near the stairs. This friend said Kyron told him he was going downstairs to see a cool electric display. No one else seems to have talked to Kyron that day or is as yet reported to have done so. The last time this friend saw Kyron was at that moment as Kyron went down the stairs. No one has seen 7 year old Kyron Horman since. The friend said the time was 9:00am. I am not aware of any reports of Kyrons activity's between 8:45am and 9:00am. I am not aware of any report that Kyron went into his classroom. If both the 8:45am and 9:00am times and stories are correct, We must believe Kyron just stood alone in the hallway for 15 minutes after telling his stepmother he was going to his classroom and while walking down the stairs he simply disappeared from the face of the earth. The perpetrator of this crime wants us to believe this and will come out fighting to defend it.

9:00am was the scheduled time for all of the children to be in their classes. If Kyron had told his step mother he was going to his class at 8:45am. There must be a reason Kyron never got to his classroom. Did Kyron wander? No, of course not.

Kyron was headed to his moment of glory. I think his friend is just wrong about the time. Kyrons past behavior model shows he does what he says he is going to do. Kyron followed the rules. Kyron was known and described as a good sweet and timid child. Kyron had no known problems with tardiness,absence,wandering or other negative behaviors in general. He was not the type of child to just wander away.

If the 8:45am story is correct Kyron was so extremely eager to get to his class and begin the tour that he headed for class 15 minutes early and fully intended to go there and would not waiver from that. It is not likely Kyron would stray from his objective. Kyron had waited for his moment in the sun for weeks. Kyron would not be late for his greatest event. Kyron was so very proud of his exhibit, that his sole desire was to get there early to assure he would be on time to show his exhibit to his classmates. What possible reasoning could have distracted Kyron from his moment of pride and joy?



This same friend and classmate was in class at the 9:00am roll call. The friend was not in the hallway at 9:00am and so it is reasonable to assume some time had to pass between that hallway conversation and the 9:00am role call. This same friend was one of the first to notice Kyron was not in class for the roll call and this surprised him. Why would it surprise him if he had just spoken to Kyron at 9:00am and he knew Kyron was going downstairs. Why would he expect Kyron to make roll call on time. The schedule was 9:00am roll call, form small groups and tour science fair until 10:00am.

There was nothing reported in their conversation about Kyron not having time to go downstairs. Kyron and his friend must have both thought Kyron had time to go downstairs and return to his class for the 9:00am role call.
This conversation very possibly took place before 9:00am. It very possibly took place around 8:46am just after Kyron left his stepmother. The friend being only 8 years old may not be as aware of the actual time as he believes. Witnesses report what they believe they saw, what they believe happened, what they believe the time was. A lot of the time it just doesn’t fit.

It is reasonable to assume the friends grandmother told him that it was time to go to class because it starts at 9:00am. He could then think it is 9:00am because his grandmother told him so.


This same friend also said he saw Kyron's step mom leave without Kyron, and that is all he said about that. I am not aware of any report that he said he saw her leave the building, go outside get in her car etc. The friend was on the second floor with Kyron so at best, all he could have seen was step mom go down the stairs. He did not say who went down the stairs first, Kyron or step mom. The friend only said they went down separately. The friend did not say he ever saw Kyron in his classroom that day. The friend said he saw Kyron in the hallway. Presumably just after Kyron left his stepmother. The friend was on the second floor. The friend had no way of knowing what happened on the first floor.

All of the events mentioned here took place on the second floor and currently all of the public news reports, video witness interviews etc, that I am aware of, are all second floor events.


The conversation between Kyron and his friend very possibly took place some time before 9:00am. I think Kyron was taken out of that school before 9:00am. It had to happen before the kids were in their seats looking out in the window. It had to happen before 9:00am because even though the halls would be momentarily clear, any people in them would stand out. A mass of parents leaving between 8:45am and 9:00am would provide excellent cover. It would have to happen before 9:00am to take advantage of the crowd and chaos that came with it. The school normally opens to students at 8:35am and the final bell rings at 8:45am. On Friday June 4 2010 the school opened early so students could tour the science fair with their parents. The school opened at 8:am that day. The bell times were not reset for the special event that day and all bells sounded at their normal times and so the final bell rang at 8:45am. This is presumably how Kyrons stepmother is certain of the time she claims she left him. That 8:45am bell also signaled go time and a plan was enacted by someone that knew the schools routines and procedures very well.

Taking a child from a school hallway is a high risk proposition for anyone at any time. Add a special event with hundreds of potential witnesses to the equation and a snatch and grab is just out of the question. While pedophiles may go to these events to meet children by way of meeting parents and posing as a safe friend, it would not be a good time for most to actually take a child. But the crowd and confusion could have been used as an advantage to someone with another plan. Someone that knew a phone call would not be made even after the absence was discovered. Someone needed time for the act and alibi and someone knew they would have it. This was not a crime of simple opportunity. This was also not done by some older kid. This act was committed by someone with adult knowledge,skills and with extremely detailed planing ability. You need a real plan to pull this off. You need to be extremely organized.

Kyron knew his abductor very very well and Kyron had no idea what was going to happen as he walked off very willingly with this person. To make this work your victim has to know you, trust you and even better, be waiting for you. Who did Kyron know and trust that he would wait for and leave with? Leaving without question or hesitation? Kicking and screaming would bring quick attention. Who would he voluntarily get in a car with? Who worked and or volunteered at that school enough to know the building, the security and the lack of it, who would blend in the best, who would be the most invisible while in plain sight. Who could best exit with Kyron unappreciated.

My guess is Kyron going down those stairs was a step in a very specific 8:45am plan. Kyron was very possibly sent down those stairs by someone he trusted. My guess is Kyrons abductor was positioned very close to Kyron that mourning watching Kyron and waiting for that 8:45am bell. At 8:45am the bell rang and Kyrons abductor moved to a new position as the plan was put in motion. Kyrons abductor moved away from the second floor activity's of the day. Kyrons abductor would want to appear to be exiting alone. Kyrons abductor would move to the first floor so that they would not be noticeably seen with Kyron.

On the first floor Kyrons abductor was no longer making contact with anyone, no longer chatting with others. On the first floor Kyrons abductor would want to blend in and be invisible. Transparency would be vital. This person would not be appreciably noticeable to anyone. This person would fit so well in the environment that their activity was completely unappreciated. The attentions of the staff, students and visitors were completely focused on the science fair and the excitement. The search for Kyron brought in new information and now the focus has shifted to the criminal investigation. The investigations in these cases begin inside and work their way out. Who was Kyron with last? Who was close to Kyron? Who had the ability? Who had the knowledge? Who had the opportunity? Who had a motive? Who had a vendetta? Who felt Kyron was a burden. Who felt Kyron was an obstacle? Who did Kyron trust enough to leave with? The bell rang at 8:45am and before 9:00am Kyron was gone.

Very well thought out observations. I think the most important two statements in your great recap are:

Who felt Kyron was a burden. Who felt Kyron was an obstacle?

Follow the trail.

raeann
06-17-2010, 05:45 PM
Very well thought out observations. I think the most important two statements in your great recap are:

Who felt Kyron was a burden. Who felt Kyron was an obstacle?

Follow the trail.

There is no evidence anywhere that shows anyone did, ever. In fact, there is mountainous evidence to the contrary.

Baxter
06-17-2010, 05:47 PM
WELCOME JUSTLOGIC!

Great first post.

raeann
06-17-2010, 05:52 PM
For me the fact he was alone in the classroom when the pic was taken, makes me question the time it was taken. Nothing about if he was happy or not

The president of the PTA at SKyline was in the room THERE observing when it was taken.....she stated this in an interview. There are at least two other people in the picture background, so alone is an inaccurate statement. The picture of his friend with his project was also taken at the same time.....the friend is IN THE ROOM, too.

jmoo

pufnstuf
06-17-2010, 06:02 PM
Hi all. This is my first post here.

Great first post, just logic. Really thorough. The few facts we have do fit well in this theory.

Welcome to WS.

cakegirl0905
06-17-2010, 06:03 PM
Very well thought out observations. I think the most important two statements in your great recap are:

Who felt Kyron was a burden. Who felt Kyron was an obstacle?

Follow the trail.
...
:furious:

That is where my mind has been going the past week. Especially after looking through the astrology forum. I hope that my thoughts are incorrect however.

seeking truth
06-17-2010, 06:04 PM
The president of the PTA at SKyline was in the room THERE observing when it was taken.....she stated this in an interview. There are at least two other people in the picture background, so alone is an inaccurate statement. The picture of his friend with his project was also taken at the same time.....the friend is IN THE ROOM, too.

jmooThs is addressing raeann:

I hadn't realized that there was a picture of his friend with Kyron's project. Is Kyron in the picture also? How do we know what time these pictures were taken and by whom?

pufnstuf
06-17-2010, 06:05 PM
I'd like to make a suggestion to people who critique theories. Please post your own theories, too.

I don't mind being critiqued at all, as long as the people who critique my posts/theories/ideas are contributing more than just criticism.

JMO.

pufnstuf
06-17-2010, 06:07 PM
I hadn't realized that there was a picture of his friend with Kyron's project. Is Kyron in the picture also? How do we know what time these pictures were taken and by whom?


There is only a photo of Kyron's bowling friend with his own project, the one that some people believe to be inferior to Kyron's. I think the kid's project was awesome, because he obviously did it himself. Not to detract from Kyron's project, which I believe was some kind of "going away present," to calm the guilt that was being felt as the plans were being made.

JMO.

raeann
06-17-2010, 06:07 PM
I hadn't realized that there was a picture of his friend with Kyron's project. Is Kyron in the picture also? How do we know what time these pictures were taken and by whom?


There are pictures of both boys together, and one of the other boy alone with his own project. I guess we don't know for sure, but personally, I don't feel there was any reason for the PTA president to lie about what she herself was there to observe.

jmoo

Wendy101
06-17-2010, 06:09 PM
There is no evidence anywhere that shows anyone did, ever. In fact, there is mountainous evidence to the contrary.

BBM: mountainous evidence? have I missed it?

I am not asking to be rude, it's just that I personally have not seen any.

raeann
06-17-2010, 06:10 PM
There is only a photo of Kyron's bowling friend with his own project, the one that some people believe to be inferior to Kyron's. I think the kid's project was awesome, because he obviously did it himself. Not to detract from Kyron's project, which I believe was some kind of "going away present," to calm the guilt that was being felt as the plans were being made.

JMO.

I guess it is all in ones own experience. I did not think Kyrons project was at all unusual or even all that elaborate compared to those I have seen by the same age students at schools where I have worked, or ones that my kids have attended. It was above average, but definitely not out of that range at all.

Ms Suzanne
06-17-2010, 06:11 PM
One thing has been really bothering me alot is I hope someone did not dress him in a CSI shirt to plan to kill him later.If the SM and or father had anything to do with this I hope and pray it was an accident.

raeann
06-17-2010, 06:22 PM
BBM: mountainous evidence? have I missed it?

I am not asking to be rude, it's just that I personally have not seen any.

I guess that I count the statements of teachers, other parents, friends of the family, and LE as evidence that he was a happy, healthy, well taken care of, well behaved, obedient, a good student, loving to other kids and siblings as evidence that he was loved and cared for by the parents who raised him.
That has even been stated here by a neighbor of the bio-mom. There was a well maintained, clean home, outings with family and friends, appropriate toys and activities, holiday celebrations, pictures of the family together happy and close.

Most of all, not a single negative thing has been said by anyone who KNEW the family. Not even one doubtful comment about the love and caring of the sm has come from a neighbor, friend, store clerk, teacher, school administrator, co-worker, fellow gym member, soccer team family, church member, boy scout leader, or day care worker, etc. The only people in the entire world who have spoken out in critical and negative fashion are the people who have never met this family, never seen them in person, never spoken to them or communicated with them in any fashion.

Whome?
06-17-2010, 06:33 PM
Hi all. This is my first post here. I think it is within the tos. My only sources of information are the same news reports and witness interviews many of you have seen.
Approximately 8:15am Friday June 4th the Skyline school PTA president said she saw Kyron and his stepmother standing near Kyron's science fair exhibit. Kyrons teacher also said she saw Kyron with his stepmother in her classroom some time before 8:45am. Approximately 8:45am the stepmother claims after watching Kyron walk towards the hallway to his classroom she left the school and that was the last time she saw Kyron.

Kyron was scheduled to be with his classroom group for the science fair tour from 9:00am until 10:00am that day and his stated destination according to Kyrons stepmother was his classroom.
Kyron was also scheduled to be in a school talent show from 1:00pm until 2:24pm. Unfortunately Kyrons stepmother did not attend the school talent show with the other parents. Around 9:00am a classmate and friend of Kyron said he spoke with Kyron in the hallway near the stairs. This friend said Kyron told him he was going downstairs to see a cool electric display. No one else seems to have talked to Kyron that day or is as yet reported to have done so. The last time this friend saw Kyron was at that moment as Kyron went down the stairs. No one has seen 7 year old Kyron Horman since. The friend said the time was 9:00am. I am not aware of any reports of Kyrons activity's between 8:45am and 9:00am. I am not aware of any report that Kyron went into his classroom. If both the 8:45am and 9:00am times and stories are correct, We must believe Kyron just stood alone in the hallway for 15 minutes after telling his stepmother he was going to his classroom and while walking down the stairs he simply disappeared from the face of the earth. The perpetrator of this crime wants us to believe this and will come out fighting to defend it.

9:00am was the scheduled time for all of the children to be in their classes. If Kyron had told his step mother he was going to his class at 8:45am. There must be a reason Kyron never got to his classroom. Did Kyron wander? No, of course not.

Kyron was headed to his moment of glory. I think his friend is just wrong about the time. Kyrons past behavior model shows he does what he says he is going to do. Kyron followed the rules. Kyron was known and described as a good sweet and timid child. Kyron had no known problems with tardiness,absence,wandering or other negative behaviors in general. He was not the type of child to just wander away.

If the 8:45am story is correct Kyron was so extremely eager to get to his class and begin the tour that he headed for class 15 minutes early and fully intended to go there and would not waiver from that. It is not likely Kyron would stray from his objective. Kyron had waited for his moment in the sun for weeks. Kyron would not be late for his greatest event. Kyron was so very proud of his exhibit, that his sole desire was to get there early to assure he would be on time to show his exhibit to his classmates. What possible reasoning could have distracted Kyron from his moment of pride and joy?



This same friend and classmate was in class at the 9:00am roll call. The friend was not in the hallway at 9:00am and so it is reasonable to assume some time had to pass between that hallway conversation and the 9:00am role call. This same friend was one of the first to notice Kyron was not in class for the roll call and this surprised him. Why would it surprise him if he had just spoken to Kyron at 9:00am and he knew Kyron was going downstairs. Why would he expect Kyron to make roll call on time. The schedule was 9:00am roll call, form small groups and tour science fair until 10:00am.

There was nothing reported in their conversation about Kyron not having time to go downstairs. Kyron and his friend must have both thought Kyron had time to go downstairs and return to his class for the 9:00am role call.
This conversation very possibly took place before 9:00am. It very possibly took place around 8:46am just after Kyron left his stepmother. The friend being only 8 years old may not be as aware of the actual time as he believes. Witnesses report what they believe they saw, what they believe happened, what they believe the time was. A lot of the time it just doesn’t fit.

It is reasonable to assume the friends grandmother told him that it was time to go to class because it starts at 9:00am. He could then think it is 9:00am because his grandmother told him so.


This same friend also said he saw Kyron's step mom leave without Kyron, and that is all he said about that. I am not aware of any report that he said he saw her leave the building, go outside get in her car etc. The friend was on the second floor with Kyron so at best, all he could have seen was step mom go down the stairs. He did not say who went down the stairs first, Kyron or step mom. The friend only said they went down separately. The friend did not say he ever saw Kyron in his classroom that day. The friend said he saw Kyron in the hallway. Presumably just after Kyron left his stepmother. The friend was on the second floor. The friend had no way of knowing what happened on the first floor.

All of the events mentioned here took place on the second floor and currently all of the public news reports, video witness interviews etc, that I am aware of, are all second floor events.


The conversation between Kyron and his friend very possibly took place some time before 9:00am. I think Kyron was taken out of that school before 9:00am. It had to happen before the kids were in their seats looking out in the window. It had to happen before 9:00am because even though the halls would be momentarily clear, any people in them would stand out. A mass of parents leaving between 8:45am and 9:00am would provide excellent cover. It would have to happen before 9:00am to take advantage of the crowd and chaos that came with it. The school normally opens to students at 8:35am and the final bell rings at 8:45am. On Friday June 4 2010 the school opened early so students could tour the science fair with their parents. The school opened at 8:am that day. The bell times were not reset for the special event that day and all bells sounded at their normal times and so the final bell rang at 8:45am. This is presumably how Kyrons stepmother is certain of the time she claims she left him. That 8:45am bell also signaled go time and a plan was enacted by someone that knew the schools routines and procedures very well.

Taking a child from a school hallway is a high risk proposition for anyone at any time. Add a special event with hundreds of potential witnesses to the equation and a snatch and grab is just out of the question. While pedophiles may go to these events to meet children by way of meeting parents and posing as a safe friend, it would not be a good time for most to actually take a child. But the crowd and confusion could have been used as an advantage to someone with another plan. Someone that knew a phone call would not be made even after the absence was discovered. Someone needed time for the act and alibi and someone knew they would have it. This was not a crime of simple opportunity. This was also not done by some older kid. This act was committed by someone with adult knowledge,skills and with extremely detailed planing ability. You need a real plan to pull this off. You need to be extremely organized.

Kyron knew his abductor very very well and Kyron had no idea what was going to happen as he walked off very willingly with this person. To make this work your victim has to know you, trust you and even better, be waiting for you. Who did Kyron know and trust that he would wait for and leave with? Leaving without question or hesitation? Kicking and screaming would bring quick attention. Who would he voluntarily get in a car with? Who worked and or volunteered at that school enough to know the building, the security and the lack of it, who would blend in the best, who would be the most invisible while in plain sight. Who could best exit with Kyron unappreciated.

My guess is Kyron going down those stairs was a step in a very specific 8:45am plan. Kyron was very possibly sent down those stairs by someone he trusted. My guess is Kyrons abductor was positioned very close to Kyron that mourning watching Kyron and waiting for that 8:45am bell. At 8:45am the bell rang and Kyrons abductor moved to a new position as the plan was put in motion. Kyrons abductor moved away from the second floor activity's of the day. Kyrons abductor would want to appear to be exiting alone. Kyrons abductor would move to the first floor so that they would not be noticeably seen with Kyron.

On the first floor Kyrons abductor was no longer making contact with anyone, no longer chatting with others. On the first floor Kyrons abductor would want to blend in and be invisible. Transparency would be vital. This person would not be appreciably noticeable to anyone. This person would fit so well in the environment that their activity was completely unappreciated. The attentions of the staff, students and visitors were completely focused on the science fair and the excitement. The search for Kyron brought in new information and now the focus has shifted to the criminal investigation. The investigations in these cases begin inside and work their way out. Who was Kyron with last? Who was close to Kyron? Who had the ability? Who had the knowledge? Who had the opportunity? Who had a motive? Who had a vendetta? Who felt Kyron was a burden. Who felt Kyron was an obstacle? Who did Kyron trust enough to leave with? The bell rang at 8:45am and before 9:00am Kyron was gone.



With all due respect,excellent post,you need to write novels,if you do not
you are missing your calling,I could "see" everything you said as I read.
:bow: and it made sense. IMHO

BeanE
06-17-2010, 06:34 PM
Your Attention Please

This thread is getting off-topic and into general discussion.

Please return to topic - case theories.

Post 'em if you got 'em. Discuss the theories posted. Challenge theories posted with respect.

All theories and opinions posted on WS are subject to challenge. If you don't want your theory challenged, then do not post it - a blog may be a better alternative for you to consider.

Theories include the person or type of person (stranger, stranger who knew Kyron) who committed a crime, what kind of crime you think they committed, and - this is important - the reasons why you think that person/type of person committed the crime.

Where this falls is random.

I now return you to your regularly scheduled posting. :)

Thanks!
BeanE
Mod

Amster
06-17-2010, 06:41 PM
Two theories I've been thinking about.

1. He's still in the school. Wrapped in plastic and stuffed in a small space. Hopefully, the school was meticulously searched.

2. Something upset him....he ran to the woods, climbed a tree and became entangled or fell and his shirt was caught on a branch and he strangled.

Calliope
06-17-2010, 06:42 PM
Interesting theory....but class DID begin at 8:45 am, there was a warning bell at 8:35 and the final bell at 8:45. Then the kids began their tours. This is one of the few, confirmed absolute facts that we do have in this case.

jmo

Also, I've never seen it verified just when roll was called, although in early articles it was said to have been at 10 am (after the tours).

raeann
06-17-2010, 07:02 PM
Two theories also:

First, is my fantasy theory----Great Aunt JOnellelindalou visited the IB expo. She loves science and children and taught school for many years until retiring due some 'questionable thought processes' in her old age. She always wanted a child but never had one, and due to her mental issues, she decided it would be ok to take one home with her that day. She asked Kyron to help her get out the right door to her car as she was a bit confused on her directions, and then just loaded him up and took him with her. Kyron is now sad and missing his family, but Great Aunt Jo has told him they said he could stay with her and keep her company for awhile, and then she will take him home all safe and sound. Kyron is being showered with toys, and games, and ice cream and popsicles. Family of Great Aunt Jo will soon stop by and figure out what has gone on and Kyron will be back home soon. End of fantasy theory, which I don't really believe at all.

Two: NON-fantasy theory, but I can't post this one as it involves extensive sleuthing of a peripheral person known to be associated with the school in a way, but who has not been mentioned by LE.

Kimster
06-17-2010, 07:12 PM
Your Attention Please

This thread is getting off-topic and into general discussion.

Please return to topic - case theories.

Post 'em if you got 'em. Discuss the theories posted. Challenge theories posted with respect.

All theories and opinions posted on WS are subject to challenge. If you don't want your theory challenged, then do not post it - a blog may be a better alternative for you to consider.

Theories include the person or type of person (stranger, stranger who knew Kyron) who committed a crime, what kind of crime you think they committed, and - this is important - the reasons why you think that person/type of person committed the crime.

Where this falls is random.

I now return you to your regularly scheduled posting. :)

Thanks!
BeanE
Mod

I've removed a discussion about Kyron's art from this thread. If you'd like to talk about that, please make a new thread. If I see one open, I'll move the posts for you.

Emma Peel
06-17-2010, 07:27 PM
<snipped>

Two: NON-fantasy theory, but I can't post this one as it involves extensive sleuthing of a peripheral person known to be associated with the school in a way, but who has not been mentioned by LE.

Hi Raeann -

Is there anyway you can be more specific - if it's a peripheral pseron associated with the school in a way - maybe state how they are associated in a general sense (volunteer, part-time staff, activity volunteer, of business service or purveyor to school), and the just describe how the facts we know and some assumptions you're making have led you to the conclusions you make in your theory?

I realize you don't want to reveal the specifics of your sleuthing, or provide specific example even, but if you keep it very general, I bet you could share your theory with us.

Anyway, i hope you can. :)

P.S. I giggled at your fantasy theory (snipped) b/c my MIL is moving to the next stage of Alzheimers and darned if I couldn't see her doing the same thing you described and never telling any of us she brought the child home to feed him b/c he mentioned he was hungry at the science fair. LOL.

eyes4crime
06-17-2010, 07:56 PM
Ruled out a couple of possibilities - often that helps me the most:
R/O post partum depression
~~snip~~The difference between postpartum depression and the baby blues is that postpartum depression often affects a woman's well-being and keeps her from functioning well for a longer period of time. Postpartum depression needs to be treated by a doctor. Counseling, support groups, and medicines are things that can help.~~snip~~

http://www.medicinenet.com/postpartum_depression/page2.htm

Untreated postpartum depression can be serious, however S-Mom looks well kept as do her children. She volunteers at the school where she engages directly with the children as evidenced by the Mother's Day project where she helped children plant sun flowers in a pot for a gift; helping Kyron with his science projects; s-mom take an interest and engages in life around her, especially the 18mo baby. For these reasons, I rule postpartum depression out.

Clarified for myself what 'isolated incident' meant!

Regarding this being called an 'isolated incident': That tells me LE have not connected the mo of this crime to any other, no evidence of a serial child predator on the lose, and no evidence of this happening at this particular school again.
I NEVER once heard LE say the community was without child sex predators; that would be negligent on the part of LE for we all know they are everywhere in such places as boyscout/girlscout troops/churches/schools/soccer and baseball teams/ everywhere children are - child predators are. Therefore = isolated incident! moo

Could this be a crime committed by a calculating, desperate, and cunning child sex predator who used the vulnerabilities of both, school security and the child? Was little Kyron groomed over time? Very possible scenario IMO

Could this be a crime committed by a person who knows Kyron and developed a hatred, jealousy, or was taken back by his intelligence and drive to do the best he can? Possibly

Could someone have used s-mom to get the information necessary to make this happen - absolutely.

I deplore witch hunts and gossip so for now, with so few actual facts, that's it. I can't put a puzzle together with so few pieces - not fair to the puzzle. moo

I reserve the right to change my theories within the next hour - now on to read all the theories. moo

Starry Night
06-17-2010, 08:16 PM
Eyes....brilliant post!

CaringCitizen
06-17-2010, 08:19 PM
First, some snipped points other theorists made on this thread (that I learned from or had already assimilated into my theory too); these are credited by name.

Chargers2010 noted:

"Summary of points leading to suspected theory:

1. LE states that this is an isolated incident and there is no stranger danger. This alone is huge and pretty states what they are thinking.
2. Children and teacher are allowed to return to school right away.
3. LE seems to be highly focused on one area for searching and its suggested source = cell phone pinging.
4. LE has been rather tight lipped in this case and has not been asking the public to look out for certain cars, suspect sketches, etc. Yes, they have been asking for video footage however".

Revampz noted:

"I have had quite a few theories....I have never thought it was premeditated until someone above mentioned maybe Kyron was hurt and "was going to tell" or the fear put into them that he might tell.....I had an aha moment......that would give motive....or if they thought he may have hurt a younger member of the family....therefore was told to go to parking lot and dont know the rest....."

Pufnstuf noted:

"I will say that I believe that it was premeditated. I believe every detail of that day was planned and mentally rehearsed".

EmmaPeel notes:

"Today my updated working theory connects these assumptions:
1) Kyron was specifically the target - this was a planned Kyron abduction.
2) Kyron knew the person he left school with
3) The person(s) knew Kyron’s schedule
4) The person(s) were familiar with this particular school and the school schedule"

"6) LE believes this to be the case due to a credible lead
7) It involves someone(s) known to the family
8) It involves someone(s) known to the school"

"10) The community has an idea
11) The neighbors house has recently been searched
12) Kyron’s brother only recently moved hours away (reason?)
13) Kyron’s brother was away camping with his father
14) Kyron knows older kids - teens - through his brother"

I snipped out 5 and 9 from Emma's list because they are the only two variants that do not fit my theory's list.

--------NOW HERE IS MY THEORY----------

1. LE has a POI but not enough 'goods' right now to obtain a warrant

2. No warrant = no right to criminally search POI's vehicle or home yet

3. But LE has gotten to do a cursory 'approved by car/homeowner' type of search (with that person hoping they are not a POI but would have anticipated such cursory searching due to proximity)

4. 'Not enough goods' also equates to LE wanting to avoid making a potential POI suspicious and hence 'going out of their way' to make specific people relax as much as possible

5. Relaxing someone can be as simple as to say 'do things as normal'. This includes NOT ASKING people to change their online presence to a private status

6. POI determined by:

a) Intimate knowledge of the school, including its: property layout (in and out), rules & guidelines, processes, habits, schedule, & people

b) Intimate knowledge about the Science Fair and corresponding specific school schedule and processes for that day

c) Intimate knowledge of the victim

d) Intimate knowledge of the victim's schedule (school or otherwise) for the entire day

e) Freedom of own schedule: eg, no employmer or other types of commitments involving 'having to be somewhere at a certain time'

f) One or more additional attributes in the determination: alibi discrepancies or oddities; ping activity; interaction with social media; recent tensions amongst relevant parties; and motive.

That's my theory based on everything I know right now. Looking forward to seeing more facts come out so I can either reject or keep accepting this one, as the case moves forward. Poor Kyron - what a darling little boy.

eyes4crime
06-17-2010, 09:06 PM
There is only a photo of Kyron's bowling friend with his own project, the one that some people believe to be inferior to Kyron's. I think the kid's project was awesome, because he obviously did it himself. Not to detract from Kyron's project, which I believe was some kind of "going away present," to calm the guilt that was being felt as the plans were being made.

JMO.

Regarding Kyron's project being a 'going away present': This isn't the first project Kyron has done - remember the one on 'bridges' that his mother attended (you posted that info)? Is there a huge discrepancy from his previous work to this one? A so called escalation of brilliance or attentiveness to detail? If so, please give us a link Puff, it would help me understand your words 'going away present'. TIA moo mho

justlogic
06-17-2010, 09:13 PM
Interesting theory....but class DID begin at 8:45 am, there was a warning bell at 8:35 and the final bell at 8:45. Then the kids began their tours. This is one of the few, confirmed absolute facts that we do have in this case.

jmo

Thanks for the heads up on the time. I will be keeping track of all corrections and revising periodically.

Deeemdee
06-17-2010, 09:49 PM
I theorize that LE & the FBI have a perp in mind. I theorize the reason that they showed pics of Kyron w/o his glasses on is b/c they found his glasses.*snip*

I think if they'd found his glasses they'd announce that they'd found his glasses. They certainly do in other missing person's cases. I think they showed a replica of his glasses in case someone came across a pair of glasses like that, say, walking down the road, just like they showed a replica of Kayleah Wilson's asthma inhaler for the same reason, and Tiffany Sessions Rolex watch. For the same reason they harp on unique items any missing person was known to have. Molly Bish's blue bathingsuit, etc. They harped on the blue bathingsuit for years, and it finally paid off.
I've seen this glasses claim elsewhere and I really don't see why police would hide having found them and then in addition to that pass them off as merely a replica. What would be the point? What would be the rationale behind this charade?

raeann
06-17-2010, 09:53 PM
*snip*

I think if they'd found his glasses they'd announce that they'd found his glasses. They certainly do in other missing person's cases. I think they showed a replica of his glasses in case someone came across a pair of glasses like that, say, walking down the road, just like they showed a replica of Kayleah Wilson's asthma inhaler for the same reason, and Tiffany Sessions Rolex watch. For the same reason they harp on unique items any missing person was known to have. Molly Bish's blue bathingsuit, etc. They harped on the blue bathingsuit for years, and it finally paid off.
I've seen this glasses claim elsewhere and I really don't see why police would hide having found them and then in addition to that pass them off as merely a replica. What would be the point? What would be the rationale behind this charade?


If they were his real glasses, they would have to remain in an evidence envelope and be handled with gloves only and put onto only a sterile surface until the DEFENSE experts had a chance to examine them. Even at trial, the evidence such as that will most often be handled with gloves because of the need to preserve it for appeals.

jmoo

Starry Night
06-17-2010, 10:10 PM
My theory is that first and foremost this was a crime of opportunity. That the perp has been a perp forever....a child lover/predator. That HE saw K and on a breathless moment just took him. He is probably a resident nearby or a neighbor in the surrounding area and when he saw the marquee advertising the event-wham. In and out. Sort of organized and unorganized......Probably had a few drinks in him from the night before. Saw this beautiful child with glasses on. For some odd reason I feel the glasses made this boy more vulnerable and attractive. I bet 10 to 1 that he (the perp) is on video or film somewhere. I do not think this perp really knows anyone at the school. He may have made some practice runs before the Science Fair-sitting in the parking lot in his car or walking in or phone calls to determine level of security/stupidity etc. I feel that the perp had a model child in mind before he arrived at the school. He must be good at blending in. I bet he also wears glasses. FWIW.

BeanE
06-17-2010, 10:30 PM
Your Attention Please

Please stick with theories of what happened to Kyron in this thread.

- Who (person or type of person such as stranger, stranger familiar with school, etc)
- What happened (abduction in the school, wandered away and then abducted, etc)
- Why (why you think this type of person and this type of crime)

Theories of other things such as what LE are doing, thinking, etc, are off-topic and lead to general discussion. Please post those discussions in the appropriate existing thread, or create a new one if it's a new topic.

I really appreciate everyone who's taking the time to post your theories and discuss them. I'm getting a lot out of reading them. As soon as I have more time I hope to join in the discussions more!

Thanks!
BeanE
Mod

BeanE
06-17-2010, 10:34 PM
I temporarily removed a couple of posts until a senior mod or admin has a chance to review them. I apologize for the interruption.

Thanks for your patience!

Thanks,
BeanE
Mod

AnaTeresa
06-17-2010, 11:08 PM
I've been mulling over this case a lot, particularly because LE is playing it close to the chest. I'm starting to build a solid theory, but there's not much to go on. This may substantially change once we have more information released to the media.

First and foremost, I strongly believe this is a non-family abduction.

Kyron is a dreamy kid, sometimes prone to distraction, and has ADD or ADD-like symptoms. He is also allegedly afraid of cops, despite his stepfather's position in LE. He can be timid and shy; he was educated about "stranger danger." He also was likely to be led into mischief by friends, rather than getting into mischief of his own volition. Therefore, he likely was abducted by someone in a position of "authority" over him - an older child (possibly a playmate with a dominate personality), a teacher, a parent or volunteer, or another adult. A small group (likely children or teenagers) would also carry the same effect, although probably no more than 3-4 could be involved without attracting attention or without scaring Kyron off with too great an intimidation factor. The higher the ages of the participants, the lesser amount would be involved in the situation. He may have been targeted, however, his abduction was most likely a crime of opportunity.

The perpetrator is most likely a white male, and there's a 53% chance he is not known to the family (NISMART). He's probably a previous offender and those offenses were probably sexually motivated, although they will have escalated over time. His is probably under the age of 30, although I would pinpoint him as younger - early twenties or late teens, or if he was older, he would certainly have either an immaturity compared to his peers or a significantly lower IQ (NISMART, OJJDP). He's unemployed or working a minimum wage job, and living alone or with his parents (NISMART). I have a feeling he may be involved in some sort of alternative lifestyle, such as transient living, growing marijuana, or possibly some sort of commune/cult living. He will probably identify himself as Christian (CSBSJU). I'm curious to see if there is some sort of Scouts, youth group, Little League, or other youth-oriented activity connection. I believe this may be the case.

Most importantly, he was likely at the school for a "valid" reason. He was able to blend in with the rest of the school without anyone else noticing - either as staff, student, or parental visitor. The method of abduction in 65% of the incidents was a sighting, a sudden assault and a quick abduction. (OJJDP). He likely had prior visual sighting of Kyron to pick him as a target, but this was most likely a crime of opportunity. Had Kyron been groomed, someone may have noticed the changes in behavior that would result.

He has probably abducted Kyron for a sexual purpose. If Kyron is still alive, he is likely within 50 miles of the abduction location (true for 85% of cases), and in 28% of cases, the victim is kept in the perp's home (OJJDP). However, it is most likely that Kryon is dead, and was assaulted violently. 74% of children kidnapped by strangers are murdered within the first hour (OJJDP). At this point, I strongly believe the investigation centers on finding his body so that physical evidence can prove the case.

Most likely, Kyron was abducted by a male aged 16-25, white, and with some significant ties to Skyline school. He was probably sexually assaulted and then murdered shortly after the abduction took place.

What a depressing first post! :(

Billylee
06-17-2010, 11:12 PM
"Hard tellin' ...not knowin'."

That's my theory so far. There has not been enough information released (valid anyway) to make any kind of logical theory. Too much still left to speculation and rumor. One thing though, that I think we can all agree on is that this child did not go kicking and screaming. Add that to LE's statement that this is an "isolated case". (I DO wish one of the reporters would ask what they EXACTLY mean by that!) And the fact the LE is not saying be on the look out for...or keep your children inside, etc., points to someone Kyron knew and trusted. Not necessarily family of course.

So, so far, all I can put my money on is that Kyron was taken by someone he knew and trusted. That could be anyone from school faculty, coaches, counselors, neighbors, friends (new or old), janitors, cafeteria personnel, policemen, firemen or anyone else he was taught to trust, as well as family, immediate or otherwise.

I have a sign in my kitchen right next to my coffee pot, so I see it every morning (maybe sometimes only with one eye, lol) it's a little prayer and it reads:

Daily Prayer: Oh Lord, please help me to keep my big mouth shut until I know what I'm talking about.

Amen. :)

Pensfan
06-17-2010, 11:21 PM
Welcome to WS, AnaTeresa!
------------------------------
Post# 168 (just joking, guys)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9Vn5kCasUo

Starry Night
06-17-2010, 11:44 PM
Billylee...I just don't see this as someone knowing this child-sorry! I think it was a semi-rash act from a freak who did not know anyone.....I don't know....I see this as an act from a perp who got his bravado from the situation (opportunity).....I think the SOB just walked in the school. I DO agree with you in that the perp prolly lives with his mother or relatives however. Renting a room? Are they doing Census in that zip?

BeanE
06-17-2010, 11:46 PM
Welcome to WS, AnaTeresa!
------------------------------
Post# 168 (just joking, guys)


lol. We're almost there.

Thanks for your patience and understanding, everyone.

BeanE

BeanE
06-18-2010, 12:10 AM
Closing thread for five minutes to give everyone a chance to read this:

Rumors - Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community

Starry Night
06-18-2010, 12:10 AM
Dear God.....please no

just
06-18-2010, 12:31 AM
Hey all,

A quick hello. I'm new to the boards and find these posts very interesting and informative. I live a few miles from Skyline and so have been following this case on the boards. I generally don't watch the news. There are billboards around the neighborhoods with Kyron's picture and it's just so sad and unbelievable. I think this case is very unusual in the lack of info, which in itself is information!

My theories are the same as many posted here. I'm trying to look at this logically from many angles and, again, based on the information we have it is very hard for me to believe that someone not known to Kyron could pull this off, but it is my second theory - as you'll see below (BTW, if anything is inaccurate, please know it is not on purpose and certainly not to start rumors swirling! It's a hard case to keep up with):

1) Theory 1: Kyron left with his stepmother and something happened to him. They had a fight. She did something stupid. She freaked out and had to get rid of him. Why this might be possible:
She was the last to see him. I have not heard the LE say specifically they are confident she drove away from the school alone. I have not heard the LE clear the family, nor have I heard any member say "please please help us find our little boy, we have passed the lie detector tests, we have nothing to do with this, please please keep looking!" When asked if they were keeping the family from making a statement (as per the grandparents, I believe), the LE said it wasn't true, in fact they were helping them with a statement. The LE wouldn't answer the reporters question of 'did Kyron have an appointment?' and if SM did say that at the science fair (i.e., he had an appointment 'but I meant next week') that alone is very very damaging and it would make perfect sense that a teacher would mark him absent knowing he went off with SM for an appointment, even with his jacket, backpack and I'm assuming lunch left at his desk.

I actually believe SM did not plan for anything to happen to Kyron but when it did, she pretended she never left with him. I guess as a mother I hope that's what may have happened if it's her or any family member.

2) Theory 2: Someone saw the 'science fair' sign and came in, high on crack or mental illness or who knows what and simply wanted to get their 'kid fix' and blended in with the crowd. Then when they saw it was a bit too busy, that they might make a clean getaway from a side door - they thought, hey, I can lure a kid to my car with - 'can you help me carry in some ______ for the science fair? or, 'you should see the exhibit that's in my car!' and if they were spotted or approached, they would have plan B and say 'you know I'm working on my son's science project and wanted to get ideas' or 'my wife sent me with my nephew's ______(batteries, paper, lunch) and Kyron here was helping me but I guess I have the wrong school!' something along those lines. But lo and behold, somehow through the chaos he got poor Kyron to walk out to help him and drove away.

I find my second theory hard to believe because:
1) The LE says it's an isolated incident and we shouldn't worry (I'm still worried, BTW and don't sleep well!).
2) They didn't give any description of any vehicles, people, nothing. That just seems beyond odd to me when they keep asking us to look for this poor boy.
3) The perp could far more easily idle on any street and get some poor child that way and not take all this risk.
4) They haven't cleared the family.

Bottom line for me, I really think this is a known person to the family, if not the SM then a neighbor, coach, someone -- and perhaps this has been known since day 1 to LE, but LE was hoping against all odds their hunches were wrong, that they'd find him quickly and easily in the woods, locked in a school closet, etc. Now that they haven't, they need to find the body to prosecute.

If this is a stranger abduction, unless there is very good reason for LE keeping things close to the vest, they have missed an opportunity to use all the people and resources of this town to help find Kyron and that will be, to say the least, very disheartening, especially in the early hours after he went missing.

And as I said, I live a few miles away and didn't even hear about it until Monday -- far too long after he went missing.

I do hope and pray this little boy comes home soon.

pufnstuf
06-18-2010, 12:36 AM
Hi, just. Welcome to the nuthouse! Just kidding. :wave:

Glad you joined us. Looking forward to reading more of your posts.

scandi
06-18-2010, 12:47 AM
I just have the beginning of my theory, rather, it isn't thought out all the way through yet:

It has seemed odd to me that Kyron wanted to go see the electrical exhibit right away, not waiting to go with his class group of 6. It's been a gnawin' at me for days now.

BANG It just hit me as to why. He knew he had to leave school and wouldn't be there for the tour.


Familial it was and he was told someone was going to be there to pick him up around 9, to be watching for ??? ~ a certain friend of the family or relative to pick him up. It could have been said as an exciting event for Kyron if say family was in from out of town for the day and they were planning to spend time together.

Now something radically went wrong, the worst scenario Kyron never expected to happen, and he died in the act of it. Something his caregivers never expected to happen. And from this tragedy, familial again, Sauvie Island came into play as it was where he was taken for placement.

What a horrific situation that would be. And it would explain everything that has happened in the last 14 days.

IMO there is a connection to SI with this person and/or the familial part again and I do believe LE has put their finger on it, just don't have all their i's dotted yet.

Realizing too that having knowledge of a crime and not giving it up to protect someone makes one as guilty as if they had done it themselves IMO

Hope it is OK to post that, if not I'll delete it.

Vegas Bride
06-18-2010, 12:57 AM
This theory keeps coming to me, I'm not saying it's what I believe happened, just that it also is a possibility.

Here you have a young child, small and IMO vulnerable. From what I understand his science project was quite large and to another child could be rather impressive. An older child there at the school could have been envious and managed to lure him somewhere private.
There have been times when children have done terrible things to other children.

I'm sure LE has looked into any other children in the school missing from class, at least I hope so!

Of course if another child did do something, they would not have the ability to take him off the school grounds so he would have been able to be found.

VB

Kimster
06-18-2010, 01:23 AM
I'd like to welcome all of our new members! It is great having you here!!! :blowkiss:

Please remember that if you have Questions about Websleuths, contact your moderators without disrupting the forum. The moderators are me, BeanE, JBean and Adnoid. The owner of Websleuths is Tricia.

scandi
06-18-2010, 01:29 AM
I'd like to welcome all of our new members! It is great having you here!!! :blowkiss:

Please remember that if you have Questions about Websleuths, contact your moderators without disrupting the forum. The moderators are me, BeanE, JBean and Adnoid. The owner of Websleuths is Tricia.

WOW What a HELLO group ! LOL And I mean that with all my heart as I know this thread will be a constant challange.

Emma Peel
06-18-2010, 01:34 AM
lol. We're almost there.

Thanks for your patience and understanding, everyone.

BeanE

We're almost where?

Oh lordie, I'm already lost half the time - just don't know where I am.

And now, I guess don't know where I'm almost at either.

:floorlaugh:

BeanE
06-18-2010, 01:40 AM
We're almost where?

Oh lordie, I'm already lost half the time - just don't know where I am.

And now, I guess don't know where I'm almost at either.

:floorlaugh:

Well now we already got there. We were wondering where you were. ;)

Emma Peel
06-18-2010, 01:45 AM
Well now we already got there. We were wondering where you were. ;)

Well, I was chasing down a rumor...

that Pensfan was posting

some time out on this thread,

or something like that...

:pcguru:

Emma Peel
06-18-2010, 01:54 AM
I just have the beginning of my theory, rather, it isn't thought out all the way through yet:

It has seemed odd to me that Kyron wanted to go see the electrical exhibit right away, not waiting to go with his class group of 6. It's been a gnawin' at me for days now.

BANG It just hit me as to why. He knew he had to leave school and wouldn't be there for the tour.


Familial it was and he was told someone was going to be there to pick him up around 9, to be watching for ??? ~ a certain friend of the family or relative to pick him up. It could have been said as an exciting event for Kyron if say family was in from out of town for the day and they were planning to spend time together.

Now something radically went wrong, the worst scenario Kyron never expected to happen, and he died in the act of it. Something his caregivers never expected to happen. And from this tragedy, familial again, Sauvie Island came into play as it was where he was taken for placement.

What a horrific situation that would be. And it would explain everything that has happened in the last 14 days.

IMO there is a connection to SI with this person and/or the familial part again and I do believe LE has put their finger on it, just don't have all their i's dotted yet.

Realizing too that having knowledge of a crime and not giving it up to protect someone makes one as guilty as if they had done it themselves IMO

Hope it is OK to post that, if not I'll delete it.

Okay, Scandi, I'll bite, and ask some follow-up questions:

You're assuming that someone Kyron knew picked him up from school. You're saying Kyron expected to be picked up by this person? And he was told by his family that this someone would be there? Something happened while in this person's care. Kyron died. Kyron was taken to SI for disposal/burial/"placement"? Somehow SI is connected to the perp? In your theory, did Kyron also die at an SI location in your theory? Or somewhere else?

scandi
06-18-2010, 02:25 AM
Okay, Scandi, I'll bite, and ask some follow-up questions:

You're assuming that someone Kyron knew picked him up from school. You're saying Kyron expected to be picked up by this person? And he was told by his family that this someone would be there? Something happened while in this person's care. Kyron died. Kyron was taken to SI for disposal/burial/"placement"? Somehow SI is connected to the perp? In your theory, did Kyron also die at an SI location in your theory? Or somewhere else?

I haven't quite got that far :angel: I think it was planned for Kyron to be picked up around the 9ish hour. Otherwise he would have no reason to go see that E project early. He was told to be watching for someone in particular who would pick him up.

I think the person who might have picked Kyron up would be the type of person who would dispose of a body in a wooded setting not drive very far to do it. It most likely took place sooner than later and the perp had a lot of lead time when no one knew he was even missing.

With no windows for a sighting and a quick run from the South door to the parking lot, it could have happened in a couple blinks of an eye and they were off.

xox

GrainneDhu
06-18-2010, 02:45 AM
Very well thought out observations. I think the most important two statements in your great recap are:

Who felt Kyron was a burden. Who felt Kyron was an obstacle?

Follow the trail.

If he were abducted for sexual purposes (makes me nauseous to even type that), then he would have been a burden to that person.

Under that assumption, the sexual act would have been the point of the abduction and murder would be means chosen to cover up the sexual act. Eliminate the eyewitness and dispose of his body in such a way that any DNA evidence would be likely to be too degraded to use.

That is the basic outline behind a bunch of stranger abductions, like Danielle van Dam, Riley Fox, etc.

scandi
06-18-2010, 02:56 AM
Okay, Scandi, I'll bite, and ask some follow-up questions:

You're assuming that someone Kyron knew picked him up from school. You're saying Kyron expected to be picked up by this person? And he was told by his family that this someone would be there? Something happened while in this person's care. Kyron died. Kyron was taken to SI for disposal/burial/"placement"? Somehow SI is connected to the perp? In your theory, did Kyron also die at an SI location in your theory? Or somewhere else?

I think LE had some info early on that whoever took Kyron was the type who would dispose of a body in a wooded type setting so hence the upscale search in the 2 mile radius of the school.

Then they must have got some really good info {As Officer Jensen said on TV} that the perp was driving and put at Sauvie Island and not by the school, hence the SI search. Makes sense as that is how the searching worked out.

As to where he died, if he did, I think it happened in the car hthe perp was driving, maybe parked on some lone road up on that big hill.

GrainneDhu
06-18-2010, 03:10 AM
My theory is that first and foremost this was a crime of opportunity. That the perp has been a perp forever....a child lover/predator. That HE saw K and on a breathless moment just took him. He is probably a resident nearby or a neighbor in the surrounding area and when he saw the marquee advertising the event-wham. In and out. Sort of organized and unorganized......Probably had a few drinks in him from the night before. Saw this beautiful child with glasses on. For some odd reason I feel the glasses made this boy more vulnerable and attractive. I bet 10 to 1 that he (the perp) is on video or film somewhere. I do not think this perp really knows anyone at the school. He may have made some practice runs before the Science Fair-sitting in the parking lot in his car or walking in or phone calls to determine level of security/stupidity etc. I feel that the perp had a model child in mind before he arrived at the school. He must be good at blending in. I bet he also wears glasses. FWIW.

Your theory is very plausible to me.

The only thing about it that doesn't seem plausible is that he walked into the school on one or more occasions to check out the security. On ordinary days, it sounds like security was pretty good. I don't have a link but I do recall reading that on ordinary days they had a badge system for visitors but it was too cumbersome to use on science fair day (short time period with high traffic).

I do agree that he may have parked in the parking lot, called the school, etc, to research the area.

When you say you think the perp wears glasses, that gives me the chills.

oceanblueeyes
06-18-2010, 08:11 AM
I truly think this is one of the most unusual and most difficult cases I have ever tried to follow.

This morning I am back to thinking I really don't know what happened to Kyron and at the moment my theory meter is on zero.

There are just so many theories that would fit but now I am not even sure my previous theory is really what I think may have happened.

So I have to stop and take a deep breath and go back to :waitasec:.

IMO

RoughlyCollie
06-18-2010, 09:19 AM
I think there are so many theories that ostensibly could fit the case because so little information is known that our imaginations have to fill in the huge blanks.

My theory is that the police suspect someone but don't have the evidence needed to arrest that person.

Furthermore, the person they suspect may be innocent. Remember Richard Ricci in the Elizabeth Smart case?

Who could it be? A relative, a stranger, someone who is connected to the school (employee or volunteer, parent, sibling of student, student, relative or friend of a student's family), someone who is a friend or neighbor of the family, a visitor to the science fair who is unconnected with the school.

That doesn't narrow the suspect field down to less than a thousand people. Of course, LE has narrowed it by having verified alibis of a large number of these people. I bet that still leaves plenty of people hanging out in the field, though.

I think that LE's best hope is to find Kyron. Then they can coordinate every interviewee's known whereabouts to that location to (hopefully) narrow the suspect field, while they await crime lab test results which will (hopefully) pinpoint the perp and/or a confession.

Their second-best hope is that eventually, if the perp is someone in the immediate family circle, s/he will crack under the pressure and confess. I hope not, though, because I am sick and tired of evil people, who are supposed to love and care for their children, hurting them.

So that's my meaningless assessment of the situation: I suspect virtually everyone in the suspect field, but particularly those people who had a reason to be at the science fair and actually knew Kyron before he disappeared.

ETA to my suspect field: Friends & relatives of people who work and/or volunteer at the school. Gosh, any of the suspect field could have mentioned to a store cashier that they were buying things for this particular science fair -- red flag goes up with cashier (good hunting ground) or cashier tells someone about it whose red flag goes up. Of course I realize that the most likely perp is someone who actually knew Kyron well before he disappeared.

RC

balaney
06-18-2010, 10:32 AM
theory

If Kyron had been harmed in any way (punished) and had visible marks on his body, possibly the family was afraid of his mother seeing the marks that weekend. Waiting until the last moment to "hide him away" and creating a scene to make it look like he walked away or was taken. There would be love for the child - as they waited until the last possible moment - but fear took over. If the mother and step father saw marks on the body, they could take Kyron. Maybe they would also accuse someone of harming other children that had been in the home. Fear of losing a child is tremendous.

debs
06-18-2010, 10:38 AM
theory

If Kyron had been harmed in any way (punished) and had visible marks on his body, possibly the family was afraid of his mother seeing the marks that weekend. Waiting until the last moment to "hide him away" and creating a scene to make it look like he walked away or was taken. There would be love for the child - as they waited until the last possible moment - but fear took over. If the mother and step father saw marks on the body, they could take Kyron. Maybe they would also accuse someone of harming other children that had been in the home. Fear of losing a child is tremendous.

That smile on his face in front of his display was genuine, real. HUGE. He has that in nearly every picture taken of him, even those where he is solitary and contemplative. I just don't see a pattern of abuse in what we see of him in these still frame sections of his life.

For instance, in Caylee's case, there are dozens of pictures where her eyes are haunted, even through her smiles. Kyron looks like a well loved little boy.

I do wonder, though, about the artwork we were shown versus the artwork which was on his desk....distinctly different quality levels.

GrainneDhu
06-18-2010, 10:48 AM
It seems to me that there are four main possibilities that would account for Kyron's disappearance.

1) Kyron left school on his own and got lost. Under this theory, he is most likely dead, considering the number of days that have passed. There is no hard evidence known at this time to support this theory. The inferential evidence supporting this is the nature of the first part of the search and there have been no suspect sketches or vehicle alerts released. Even though there was an extensive search by highly qualified personnel, there is still a chance his body could be out there; there have been cases where searchers repeatedly walked within feet of a body before realising it.

2) Kyron was abducted by a family member. Under this theory, he is most likely dead as it seems unlikely he was subject to a custody dispute. The hard evidence for this theory is the fact that Kyron's SM has placed herself as one of the last people to see him (later sightings could be confusion on the part of witness/es). The inferential evidence relies on analyses of family dynamics, LE behaviour (areas where searches have been concentrated, information released, questions answered or not answered, etc).

3) Kyron was abducted by someone he knew who was not a family member, such as a friend, school member. Considering the high profile of this case, it is unlikely that he remains alive under this theory. There is no hard evidence to support this theory that I am aware of. Inferential evidence to support this theory is the fact that there were no strangers reported at the school around the time Kyron disappeared and the possibility that familiarity with school procedures aided the perpetrator.

4) Kyron was abducted by a stranger or by someone whose connection to the family is extremely distant (such as a delivery person, store clerk, former co-worker, etc). There is no hard evidence released that supports this theory. Inferential evidence includes examples of previous cases of stranger abductions and analyses of LE behaviour.

Under this theory, it is not clear whether Kyron is alive or dead although the probability is roughly 3 to 1 that he was killed within the first hour. However, there have been several cases of long term imprisonment by abductors.

trigger
06-18-2010, 11:02 AM
Fox News just said...guess who LE is focusing on now....

Coming right up after a break...

trigger
06-18-2010, 11:05 AM
Fox News just said...guess who LE is focusing on now....

Coming right up after a break...

Sorry coming up on Happening now....I'll Let you know...

RubyRed
06-18-2010, 11:20 AM
Sorry coming up on Happening now....I'll Let you know...

Thank You, Trigger

Blondie in Spokane
06-18-2010, 11:21 AM
I know Trigger....I'm glued to my set, too...how many teasers do they need for one story??

Jetaime
06-18-2010, 11:23 AM
MSNBC just reported SM is indeed now the main focus of the investigation. LE believe she was at Sauvie Island on the 4th and that her whereabouts that day are inconsistant.

Blondie in Spokane
06-18-2010, 11:25 AM
Fox News....several sources...step mom's phone pinged at Sauvie Island???

Astrella613
06-18-2010, 11:27 AM
Fox News....several sources...step mom's phone pinged at Sauvie Island???

I hope they are reliable sources cause that has been the rumor for a few days.

tehcloser
06-18-2010, 11:27 AM
JBean is starting a SM thread...............

ETA......WELL it was there....lol, now it's gone.

jessicat
06-18-2010, 11:28 AM
I don't know if anyone has said this or not..but I just want to add something that I have thought about since day 1. I am a stepmom to two wonderful, wonderful kids. My husband and I also have a child together. My stepson was 8 yrs old when we had our son. He was worried we were going to love his little brother more than him. He told us he was worried about that. I know that he was really,really worried about us treating him differently now that dad had another son. Of course we made an conscious effort to keep him involved. I still remember the first time he held him. I had to have a c-section and we scheduled it on the weekend we knew he would be with us. When he came to the hospital..we immediatley let him hold him. My husband also took the kids to eat afterwards to focus on them only too. To this day he is very close to his little brother. Also I wonder what was going on within the family? Was SM upset that dad didn't pay enough attention to her and new baby and more to Kyron? Yes while she has raised Kyron since birth, having her own child could have changed her feelings. In our family, our little boy has brought us all so much closer. This is my opinion only and again just speculation.

tehcloser
06-18-2010, 11:35 AM
SM Focus of Investigation - Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community

Thread about SM.

JBean
06-18-2010, 11:36 AM
we need an msm link

liz b.
06-18-2010, 11:56 AM
National version of Fox News is reporting that SM's cell pinged out on Sauvie Island ; that's why the huge search effort there. Enough said. Wonder if there will be an arrest soon ?

All JMO

cakegirl0905
06-18-2010, 11:59 AM
I think the mods just want to make sure it's confirmed by one of the "big" sources to make sure we don't unfairly discuss this or lynch SM. So CNN, Fox, MSNBC, etc. I understand the reasoning.

But if it's true, it confirms my worst fear about the case. :(

BeanE
06-18-2010, 12:09 PM
Your Attention Please

Check this thread for status on whether or not the Willamette Week article can be posted or discussed:

Rumors - Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community

Until it is approved, do not post or discuss it.

Thank you for your cooperation!
BeanE
Mod

BeanE
06-18-2010, 12:11 PM
National version of Fox News is reporting that SM's cell pinged out on Sauvie Island ; that's why the huge search effort there. Enough said. Wonder if there will be an arrest soon ?

All JMO

We're waiting for a link. Keep a check on this thread for status:
SM Focus of Investigation - Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community



Unless/until it's approved, please don't post about it.

Thanks,
BeanE
Mod

CathyinTexas
06-18-2010, 12:21 PM
One picture of him in a classroom bothered me, IMO, hes not smiling, and hes always smiling...My heart sank when I saw it.

Rubyred posted 65 pics of him. Look at pic#19...

http://www.cbsnews.com/2300-504083_162-10003676-18.html?tag=page

Someone may have said this already, but it looks like that was taken in during a class, and he was preparing to give an oral report or presentation. It may have or not been taken by a family member.

debs
06-18-2010, 12:23 PM
In regards to the picture # 19.......it looks like he's contemplating the project sitting on the desks in front of him, analyzing every detail to see how it all goes together. He looks quite fine there.

Emma Peel
06-18-2010, 12:32 PM
:offtopic:
Is this the theory thread? :waitasec:

Friendly Reminder:

Just when we're going to need this thread for posting LOTS of new theories, it's going to get shut down for clean up. :angel:

BeanE
06-18-2010, 12:38 PM
Closing thread.

Back in a bit.

Jetaime
06-18-2010, 07:47 PM
You got it- Thank you, Bean :)

BeanE
06-18-2010, 07:53 PM
You got it- Thank you, Bean :)

Thank you so much, and again, my apologies. I thought I'd opened it hours ago.

BeanE

glorybug
06-18-2010, 08:35 PM
Some things that would make it a little easier to define my theory-
Where was biodad from that morning until late afternoon? What car was he driving?
Where was 18month old when Kyron was taken to school, and while SM was supposedly running errands? Where was she when both parents went to the school and the biodad was sent home to wait?
Obviously, if the pings don't match, either sm was not where she claimed she was, or she got separated from her cellphone (not likely), but that still does not mean that she was in the white truck. She could have gone home and then switched to the red car and driven to where the pings picked up. There are many reasons she could have lied about where she was at- think about it. People cheat, people do/buy drugs... all kinds of things- it isn't always lying about murder. That's why it would be good to know what the biodad was driving, whether he was home, and where the 18month old was. Does the biodad drive another car?

Of course, it's also possible she was driving the white truck the whole time. I would also like to know at what point it became clear that there was starter trouble with the truck- obviously if the truck had been having those problems, it would not have been used to take Kyron to school in. Had the truck been used between the time of his disappearance and the time it was towed?

I would like to clarify for people- the picture that Kyron drew is NOT a 'red squirrel'. It is quite obviously a chipmunk.

I don't have a problem reassessing whether I think SM or biodad could be involved.... I'm just really at a loss for a tangible motive (and the step part just isn't inough, IMO, since my children have a step who loves them), not to mention the logistics of where and how a child could be taken in broad daylight, killed, and disposed of without anyone seeing at all.

CaringCitizen
06-18-2010, 09:17 PM
Someone may have said this already, but it looks like that was taken in during a class, and he was preparing to give an oral report or presentation. It may have or not been taken by a family member.

It was indeed taken by a family member that was helping in the classroom that day and then posted the photo publicly with a comment stating "He was asked a question.."

One of our fellow WS members had mentioned in their theory post (would have to go back and look at who/when) that is was interesting to WONDER why after so many volunteer hours at the school (for example during the above April bridge project) why of all days, volunteering for the Science Fair and Talent Show were not on the agenda. The question dovetails into many theories posted here already.

Jetaime
06-18-2010, 09:43 PM
I don't have a problem reassessing whether I think SM or biodad could be involved.... I'm just really at a loss for a tangible motive (and the step part just isn't inough, IMO, since my children have a step who loves them), not to mention the logistics of where and how a child could be taken in broad daylight, killed, and disposed of without anyone seeing at all.

Respectfully B&CBM. I have a pretty good idea what that motive may be, but Im not sure if Im able to post it. Mods: Am I able to discuss SM's online handle and possible postings?

Jetaime
06-18-2010, 09:49 PM
For a while now, I have strongly suspected SM did go into the school with Kyron, took the picture of him next to his project & possibly told him to slip out the door and meet her outside somewhere under the guise of having a fun day off together...

miabellamoure
06-18-2010, 10:10 PM
Some things that would make it a little easier to define my theory-
Where was biodad from that morning until late afternoon? What car was he driving?
Where was 18month old when Kyron was taken to school, and while SM was supposedly running errands? Where was she when both parents went to the school and the biodad was sent home to wait?
Obviously, if the pings don't match, either sm was not where she claimed she was, or she got separated from her cellphone (not likely), but that still does not mean that she was in the white truck. She could have gone home and then switched to the red car and driven to where the pings picked up. There are many reasons she could have lied about where she was at- think about it. People cheat, people do/buy drugs... all kinds of things- it isn't always lying about murder. That's why it would be good to know what the biodad was driving, whether he was home, and where the 18month old was. Does the biodad drive another car?

Of course, it's also possible she was driving the white truck the whole time. I would also like to know at what point it became clear that there was starter trouble with the truck- obviously if the truck had been having those problems, it would not have been used to take Kyron to school in. Had the truck been used between the time of his disappearance and the time it was towed?

I would like to clarify for people- the picture that Kyron drew is NOT a 'red squirrel'. It is quite obviously a chipmunk.

I don't have a problem reassessing whether I think SM or biodad could be involved.... I'm just really at a loss for a tangible motive (and the step part just isn't inough, IMO, since my children have a step who loves them), not to mention the logistics of where and how a child could be taken in broad daylight, killed, and disposed of without anyone seeing at all.

Here's my theory...family & Kyron are up late the night before trying to finish his Tree Frog project...next morning, SM is rushing to try and get Kyron (with a toddler, too) ready for school & to deliver his project in time for the Science Fair...typical parental frustration building...SM (maybe BioDad, too) still need to return to school later that day for Talent Show...once at school, Kyron tours the Science Fair with SM...SM takes Kyron's picture taken next to his project...SM ready to leave Kyron when they realize Kyron has left something at home that he will need for his Talent Show...SM is now upset that after reminders (ex: don't forget to have everything you need) he forgot a missing item...tension is now growing more...Kyron gets upset...SM takes Kyron home to get whatever he needs...SM loses control and lashes out at Kyron hurting him and then realizing that she's hurt him badly possibly fatally and panics...dumps his body somewhere off of Sauvie Island...

Believe me...I'd so rather imagine a stranger abduction vs a parent being involved but, this is to me the most plausible scenario...

BeanE
06-18-2010, 10:17 PM
Respectfully B&CBM. I have a pretty good idea what that motive may be, but Im not sure if Im able to post it. Mods: Am I able to discuss SM's online handle and possible postings?

It depends on if you can prove it is Terri. If you'd like, you can PM me the info and I'll check it out. I may not get to it until tomorrow morning.

Jetaime
06-18-2010, 10:18 PM
Okies, ty!

carbuff
06-18-2010, 10:23 PM
I keep thinking of Annie Le and wondering whether Kyron ever left that school building.

mike_oxbig1414
06-18-2010, 11:12 PM
First off... Emma, you are one of the best (if not best) contributors to this site... IMO, in light of all evidence to now, SM is the one and only that had the OPPORTUNITY to take KH at the time. And by OPPORTUNITY I mean completely PRE-MEDITATED. My first post but here it goes... I've studied the PC's and there is no way I buy any of SM's emotions.. Not to mention her FB postings (if thats allowed). Insane that someone who reared a child from birth can snuff them out so easily with no conciense ... again just my opinion. RIP Kyron, as that is the only logical end for you. God bless.

glorybug
06-18-2010, 11:23 PM
All of these are interesting theories, but not one of them is workable without explaining WHERE the 18month old is during this entire time.

mike_oxbig1414
06-18-2010, 11:34 PM
All of these are interesting theories, but not one of them is workable without explaining WHERE the 18month old is during this entire time.

18 month old left lying on the floor for an hour... no prob, no reprocussions (with 18 mo)

TakeNote
06-19-2010, 12:03 AM
has anyone thought the photo of kyron at school infront of his frog project look photo shop at all?

TrialAddict
06-19-2010, 12:11 AM
We don't know if the dad was home when she took Kyron to school. If he was he probably stayed with the baby jmo

RoughlyCollie
06-19-2010, 12:15 AM
I keep thinking of Annie Le and wondering whether Kyron ever left that school building.

There were two other cases like that, one in GA involving a veteran (IIRC) and one involving a male college student -- both found dead in areas that had already been searched.

I've been thinking about that, too.

scandi
06-19-2010, 12:16 AM
All of these are interesting theories, but not one of them is workable without explaining WHERE the 18month old is during this entire time.

Yes, and we don't have a link to anything about that IMO. I've read only posters speculating, or heard this or that.

mysticrose
06-19-2010, 12:22 AM
It could be possible that the 18month old was dropped off at daycare for the day, by either Kaine or TM.

seeking truth
06-19-2010, 12:29 AM
All of these are interesting theories, but not one of them is workable without explaining WHERE the 18month old is during this entire time.Well, since nothing has been reported, it could be as simple as Terri had her with a babysitter for the day. Or Kaine had her. Or, Terri's mother had the baby that day.

s_finch
06-19-2010, 12:30 AM
There were two other cases like that, one in GA involving a veteran (IIRC) and one involving a male college student -- both found dead in areas that had already been searched.

I've been thinking about that, too.

It is puzzling how they never found the college student in the electrical closet but did they bring dogs into the dorm? I'm thinking they didn't but I could be wrong.

seeking truth
06-19-2010, 12:32 AM
18 month old left lying on the floor for an hour... no prob, no reprocussions (with 18 mo)Sure, what could possibly go wrong with that?!:angel:

impatientredhead
06-19-2010, 12:49 AM
There were two other cases like that, one in GA involving a veteran (IIRC) and one involving a male college student -- both found dead in areas that had already been searched.

I've been thinking about that, too.

This idea came up in the general discussion threads and there were several examples pulled, one where a body was under a bed in a motel room for weeks (while people rented the room) and was not noticed by anyone, there was one here in Seattle this February where a woman in a YMCA rental was dead in her room for 7 weeks, very very tight quarters, no one noticed a thing. I double checked the timeline on Annie, it took them a week to find her in a building they were actively searching. The college student that was elecrocuted was months after the fact.

I very much thought he never left the school but the reports of SM being the focus of the investigation (supposedly, allegedly, etc...) have made me rethink that.

They are spending a lot of time and money searching the water of that Island, they have to have a good reason to do so.

txsvicki
06-19-2010, 12:51 AM
I do not suspect the SM and haven't really seen anything too suspcious so far, but, I could see a scenario where a person who is intolerant of perceived bad behavior in a child might get mad if he was disappointed or made a remark that his project wasn't as good as another kid's. The parent might punish the child by not allowing him to stay at school for the rest of the fun day, talent show. Again, I know nothing about this woman's personality or method of punishment. I can't really see someone wanting to take a child when they're already at school and then having the rest of the day to get things done. That would have to be a very rigid person and one who doesn't believe in kids acting up & one who follows through immediately on punishment.

mysticrose
06-19-2010, 12:54 AM
I think this was totally premeditated. I think part of this plan was her older son being moved away to live elsewhere ..

I believe Terri took Kyron to school that morning early to do the walk through at the science fair snapped her pic to show he was there.
I believe she made sure Kyron's stuff (back Pack and coat) made it to the classroom to make it appear he was there. Then I do believe she made her appearence at the gym with Kyron and hollered at the teacher about the appointment across the gym knowing full well in all the confusion that the teacher would not panick if Kyron was gone, the teacher would just assume Kyron was with Terri.
I also believe she either told Kyron he had an appointment as well/ or told him that they were going to get real life tree frog for his project to get him back to the truck, she may have had him wait for her and had him come out another door so she was not seen walking out with him.
She also would be full aware that with all the hustle and bustle going on that she would more then likley not be seen leaving with him,and she knew class role call would not be called until later on in the day. She drove the truck on purpose as for one it is not as noticable as her mustang and the truck would allow her to drive to more areas to get rid of Kyron's body.
I am not sure what her motive would be as by all accounts everything seemed and looked right.
Jealousy may play a big factor here in regards to Kaine paying to much attention to Kyron and not her and the new baby, jealous because of the relationship he still shared with his exwife in regards to Kyron. I feel it is something along those lines given the fact that she has helped raise him from an infant.

I think the babe was dropped off at daycare by either her or dad that morning...

Anyhow this is jmho of course fwiw ....

impatientredhead
06-19-2010, 01:14 AM
So if SM did do this and it was planned, the part I am confused about is she could not have known for sure that she could make an appearance at the school, take a photo, and have no one be able to say they saw him leave with her.

I am wondering if the plan wasn't more along the lines of she was expecting a call from the school saying he was absent. I am not sure what the plan was when that call came in but that is the logical outcome of a child not being at school.

Was she going to say he was sick, acting odd, that he was with someone else?
Did the plan change when no one called?
How good of job did she do when "finding out" he wasn't on the bus.

I have no problem thinking a parent/caretaker is responsible. Statistically they almost always are. But showing up at the school and being that confident that no one saw him leave doesn't make sense to me.

And they are being very clear to say SM was the last one to see him, that means no student or friend is saying they walked to the exhibits with him.

I am wondering if what the teacher's saw was SM walking around the school that morning. If we really do not know when the photo was taken I wonder if he was really there that morning.

I don't get calmly planning to kill a young child. I guess rage flip outs make so much more sense to and piecing together an alibi after the fact seems more logical to me. To preplan it and then have your phone ping in a place you didn't say you were makes no sense to me.

Arrrggh

mysticrose
06-19-2010, 01:21 AM
I was reading a few articles about why women kill their children it has been very interesting, the statistics are far more then people want to believe. You should google it, it helps to bring some perspective......

sofia76
06-19-2010, 01:25 AM
I am wondering if the plan wasn't more along the lines of she was expecting a call from the school saying he was absent. I am not sure what the plan was when that call came in but that is the logical outcome of a child not being at school.

Was she going to say he was sick, acting odd, that he was with someone else?
Did the plan change when no one called?
How good of job did she do when "finding out" he wasn't on the bus.


Skyline Elementary had no policy of calling in when students were absent, so if she is the culprit, she would have known that no one would call her.

nonfictionrocks
06-19-2010, 01:25 AM
This is my first post on this case but I have been following from Day 1 (what a challenge it has been!) Kudos to the Mods!

I originally came across the story on MSN's Canadian version, so rest assured Kyron's disappearance was announced both nationally and internationally (if one considers Ontario, Canada that is). When I heard, I quickly logged on to WS knowing you all would be on top of the situation.

Until Kyron got his own forum it was difficult to even consider posting a question or theory as the pages were moving so quickly and trying to find an answer to your question was almost impossible.

Now with the forum format I feel comfortable in adding a few thoughts to this sad situation.

If we are to assume that LE is following SM cell phone bings, it occurs to me that perhaps there might be another reason why SM is not so forthcoming to her whereabouts that fateful day (or LE knows is aware that this will only add more fuel to this fire). For someone (SM) who spends time in a gym and had a baby 18 months ago, she does not look to be in tip top shape (sorry if that sounds catty). I think it could be an excuse or cover to be away from her home in order to meet someone else. Maybe that someone lives on the island and this is why her cell phone has been pinged there. How much worse would she look right now if an affair was to be exposed? How would her husband feel finding this out in combination with having his little boy missing? It would also explain her need to announce on her FB page that she was heading out to the gym, so her "lover" could meet up with her. If she is not involved in Kyron's disappearance, she might be in desperate need of support from someone who she is reluctant to name or involve. Maybe he is married too?

Another story of interest to me and I am not sure if it ever panned out, was this suicidal man:

http://www.oregonlive.com/portland/index.ssf/2010/06/suicidal_man_leads_three_law_e.html#incart_rh

Was this angle ever totally sleuthed out? I can't find any follow up.

I want to mention that many times my kids tell me there will be or has been a talent show (or something along those lines) at their school during the day and not only did I not get an invite - I had no idea it was happening. I am not talking about the Christmas pageants - we get lots of notice on these. I think sometimes the school has activities that are just for the students and if you don't read every single word on the school's monthly calendar, you miss these. However, our school is very diligent in letting us parents know when a fund raising activity is happening - LOL I should add that I am not positive that the afternoon Talent Show was posted on the school marque as I heard the Science show had been. Now speaking of this Science Fair (as we call them in the north), if it was posted outside the school that this was an open house it might not only draw people from the community who normally would not be in the school (aunts, uncles, grandparents, etc.) but is an invitation for people without a valid reason to be anywhere near the school to come on inside, "everyone is welcome today!" This is mainly why I think Kyron's disappearance was a crime of opportunity - there were way too many unknown people (familiar and not so familiar) walking the halls of school that morning. Someone saw a chance and took it.

When I saw the search in the water down that long path leading from the Native whatever the building was (sorry too tired to look for the link) my thought was that LE was perhaps following a maintenance company's route and maybe someone who works for that company is contracted to cut the grass or pick up the garbage at both places on this day.

As for SM's captions on her FB photographs of both her daughter and Kyron, as a mother of two boys under the age of ten, I have to say first, any new clothing I buy them can be truly destroyed the first time they wear it and since they grow so fast many things either look too small or way too big on them and secondly I appreciate getting used clothing whenever I can (preferrably not already stained - LOL). I cannot speak for being a mother of a finally having a daughter in the house, but what I can say is that I love little girl's clothing and if I had a daughter I would doll her up because I can never do this with my boys. Being the first girl for SM - all of her clothes were probably brand new and with Mom being a girl herself, she might have enjoyed having her little girl look pretty. Also it sounds like the captions under her pictures have been taken totally out of context. I did not see the pictures but have heard the explanations - FWIW!

And last (sorry to be so long but I have a couple of weeks accumulation here) in my 30 plus years of studying and following true crime cases, sometimes the motive is just pure evil with no explanation other than urge and opportunity (think BTK) and it has nothing to do with the victim or their family, sadly it happens.

So believe me when I say as a parent of two small boys in school, I am more comfortable thinking that the SM did it (although I do not 100% believe this to be the case) because the alternative truly is horrifying!

JMO

miabellamoure
06-19-2010, 01:45 AM
IF Kyron's SM were to have premeditated his disappearance and/or death...don't you think she'd have been a little smarter to have left her cell where ever she supposedly told LE she was that day?

I stand by my theories and believe it will come out that this was a crime of "snapping"...at least I want to stand there because the alternative is even more horrible to fathom.

I honestly think to be murdered by your own family member is far worse than a stranger. This is the person that is supposed to care for & love you...not murder you.

impatientredhead
06-19-2010, 01:50 AM
Skyline Elementary had no policy of calling in when students were absent, so if she is the culprit, she would have known that no one would call her.

I find it odd that any school in today's day and age has no policy about contacting parents regarding an absence. Not saying they do or don't, just that I find it odd.

But lets say their policy is that they do not call on the first day of an absence, but they don't do anything when the child was there and then isn't there anymore?

That seems even odder.

cakegirl0905
06-19-2010, 02:13 AM
I think this was totally premeditated. I think part of this plan was her older son being moved away to live elsewhere ..

I believe Terri took Kyron to school that morning early to do the walk through at the science fair snapped her pic to show he was there.
I believe she made sure Kyron's stuff (back Pack and coat) made it to the classroom to make it appear he was there. Then I do believe she made her appearence at the gym with Kyron and hollered at the teacher about the appointment across the gym knowing full well in all the confusion that the teacher would not panick if Kyron was gone, the teacher would just assume Kyron was with Terri.
I also believe she either told Kyron he had an appointment as well/ or told him that they were going to get real life tree frog for his project to get him back to the truck, she may have had him wait for her and had him come out another door so she was not seen walking out with him.
She also would be full aware that with all the hustle and bustle going on that she would more then likley not be seen leaving with him,and she knew class role call would not be called until later on in the day. She drove the truck on purpose as for one it is not as noticable as her mustang and the truck would allow her to drive to more areas to get rid of Kyron's body.
I am not sure what her motive would be as by all accounts everything seemed and looked right.
Jealousy may play a big factor here in regards to Kaine paying to much attention to Kyron and not her and the new baby, jealous because of the relationship he still shared with his exwife in regards to Kyron. I feel it is something along those lines given the fact that she has helped raise him from an infant.

I think the babe was dropped off at daycare by either her or dad that morning...

Anyhow this is jmho of course fwiw ....

Agreed. I believe she took him to school so he could take his project in and she could take a pic of him. She then had some excuse for taking him out-an appointment, etc, so he left willingly with her.

Emma Peel
06-19-2010, 02:18 AM
Closing thread.

Back in a bit.

OMG you closed our theory thread for 7.5 hours today?

:floorlaugh: oh BeanE this makes me laugh.
The best part is, I didn't even notice!
No wait.
The best part is, nobody noticed! lololol! :dance:

Wow, what a big day we had. No harm done b/c it's good to let all of this simmer a bit on the narrow topic threads before beating it into working theory.

So, welcome back, theorists! Let's find Kyron!

October
06-19-2010, 02:30 AM
All of these are interesting theories, but not one of them is workable without explaining WHERE the 18month old is during this entire time.

Does it matter? She's only 18 months old. She can't tell anyone what she saw, and she could easily be left in a crib or a car seat with no repercussions. I have three children, and if I felt I needed to do something like this, leaving my 18 month old in the car would be the least of my worries. She can nap there, you can give her snacks or put in a dvd. She can't get herself out. Easy peasy.

October
06-19-2010, 02:54 AM
I admit, its late here and... Im sleep-typing, but I hope Im misreading and no one is actually advocating leaving an 18 month old unattended at home or in a car.

Whoa! I'm in no way advocating it. Not at all. Ever.

I'm just saying that I can see some people doing it in desperate circumstances, so I can't discount theories just because we don't know if someone had childcare.

butwhatif?
06-19-2010, 03:29 AM
Forgive me for posting here when I'm still waaaay back on thread 8, but the posts about the 7 yr old boys interview about the sub teacher seemed to be missing a HUGE point.

If this has already been cleared up, then just ignore the rest of my post, or mods can delete.

In the article it stated that the boy must have been mistaken because there were no subs at the school that day (per the school superintendent).

And that the subs were only there after Kyrons disappearance "to help with the stress of the Horman case".

http://www.koinlocal6.com/content/news/topstories/story/Hormans-desk-mate-says-substitute-noticed-Horman/TVY3YTREG0SyCP3tb3MkZg.cspx

Going with the Astros belief that a woman is involved, along with the above information, is it possible that the substitute teacher Kyrons friend spoke of was in fact not a teacher at all, but an imposter there to gain Kyrons trust before abducting him?
(Still not sure if it was the sub or reg teacher who left the room though- Of course this theory only works if it was the sub who left)

Also, it seems odd to me that the reg teacher would assume he was just at the bathrooms or getting a drink since it has been established that they DO have a buddy system for trips to the bathroom at this school....I don't care how hectic the day was...IMO, all the more reason to be super vigilant.

And if this boy was his deskmate- why no questioning of why Kyron was not back in his seat a short time later?

FWIW- My main theory is still family-related, but just wanted to throw this one out there.

MimiWhatserface
06-19-2010, 04:39 AM
I think this was totally premeditated. I think part of this plan was her older son being moved away to live elsewhere ..

I believe Terri took Kyron to school that morning early to do the walk through at the science fair snapped her pic to show he was there.
I believe she made sure Kyron's stuff (back Pack and coat) made it to the classroom to make it appear he was there. Then I do believe she made her appearence at the gym with Kyron and hollered at the teacher about the appointment across the gym knowing full well in all the confusion that the teacher would not panick if Kyron was gone, the teacher would just assume Kyron was with Terri.
I also believe she either told Kyron he had an appointment as well/ or told him that they were going to get real life tree frog for his project to get him back to the truck, she may have had him wait for her and had him come out another door so she was not seen walking out with him.
She also would be full aware that with all the hustle and bustle going on that she would more then likley not be seen leaving with him,and she knew class role call would not be called until later on in the day. She drove the truck on purpose as for one it is not as noticable as her mustang and the truck would allow her to drive to more areas to get rid of Kyron's body.
I am not sure what her motive would be as by all accounts everything seemed and looked right.
Jealousy may play a big factor here in regards to Kaine paying to much attention to Kyron and not her and the new baby, jealous because of the relationship he still shared with his exwife in regards to Kyron. I feel it is something along those lines given the fact that she has helped raise him from an infant.

I think the babe was dropped off at daycare by either her or dad that morning...

Anyhow this is jmho of course fwiw ....

You make a lot of sense. She could have merely told Kyron that she was going to be dropping him back off after his appointment and to go drop his bags off in the class and to meet her at the front of the school.
The infant could have been at daycare or with a friend. Maybe this was the neighbor that was searched solely because it was the next place she was right after getting back that day.
I have been very slow to even consider SM as an option and I do this only because I respect whatever it is that the LE has discovered. I don't think we know the half of it. They are being so tight with any info that is out there.

MimiWhatserface
06-19-2010, 04:44 AM
Saturday 1:45AM and I am up working on a new theory. Really, Im just up thinking of this little man.