AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #15

[fancyface]

IMO...I still feel Sergio did NOT sleep that night....what ever one might want to make of that....just my opinion...

 

[oceanblueeyes]

I dont know if this has already been linked or not. I tried to scan the pages but all I saw was mostly about drug cartels.

We contacted Child Protective Services, but an official said the department can't talk specifically about the Celis case. So KGUN9 contacted an expert who handles CPS cases. Kathy Rau is the Executive Director of the Southern Arizona Children's Advocacy Center and a former TPD investigator on missing child cases.

Rau answered, "If there is a level of concern for one parent and not the other, then they may ask if that parent will voluntarily leave the home until CPS gets this straightened out."

KGUN 9 reporter Valerie Cavazos asked if there could be some outside factors that's connected to that parent that would prompt CPS to take action. Rau replied, "It could be either one. There is a concern the children may not be safe with the parent or the environment the parent is presenting."

When a parent is not arrested, Rau said, "It means there's no probable cause. There's not the legal requirement for the evidence for that person to be arrested, or the arrest is pending, or the person is not a suspect."

http://www.kgun9.com/news/local/151466045.html

******************************************

IMO, Sergio will not be arrested and whatever this is may not even be an arrestable offense.

 

[liz b.]

Once again in catch up mode(my apologies Liz as I know earlier my post replying to a post of yours I was attempting to get caught up.. seems I cannot work in RL and keep up at WS these days). Is there knowledge of yet ANOTHER STRANGER that called 911 and this call was made ACTUALLY BEFORE DADS CALL TO 911?

I'm aware of the one stranger that apparently initiated the 911 call on behalf of the oldest brother that we hear the adult male quickly hand over the call to the brother to speak with dispatch.. I know earlier on there were some who mistakenly believed this particular stranger had actually contacted 911 BEFORE DAD HAD CALLED(IMO the confusion came from media having released the calls NOT IN CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER) ..factually speaking it was Sergio who called 911 first with very soon there after the stranger/oldest brother placing a 911 call from somewhere else entirely due to the fact the eldest son was at that time searching the neighborhood for Isa..

So there is now info that yet another, second stranger via one of the brothers searching is also to have made a call to 911 and this call was to have preceded the dads call and the other strangers call? ..news to me if so...

TiA to anyone who can clarify

Smooth,
No. I actually meant the call that the stranger in the store initiated . To repeat, NO that is the only other 911 call....that I'm aware of. Hope that clears it up. After all, wouldn't want to start rumors,or set up the thread to get derailed.Not like that would happen..right ??

 

[Anna1964]

Well, here is a rumor.

JM's mom lives in FL and is the president of an Equestrian club. The neighbor has her FB cover photo as her doing equestrian. JM's mom has a connection with a Swanson last name. On youtube, the neighbor is videotaped with someone with the last name Swanson.

What does that mean? Hell if I know.

I saw the equestrian cover photo and the fact mom was president of an equestrian club, but I didn't find the utube video and the Swanson connection. Good job.

 

[abstr]

If you mean the first 911 call on the tape released, yes that was made by a stranger. That was released.
If you mean the first call at all, no. Sergio called first.
The second call on that same tape is Sergio's call.
Two calls were released on the same tape, but out of order, in reverse chronological order. At the end of Sergio's call you can hear the Operator say that they have his son on the line.

Was this odd the press released out of order? I have no idea but it certainly was confusing....

 

[LisaB]

Once again in catch up mode(my apologies Liz as I know earlier my post replying to a post of yours I was attempting to get caught up.. seems I cannot work in RL and keep up at WS these days). Is there knowledge of yet ANOTHER STRANGER that called 911 and this call was made ACTUALLY BEFORE DADS CALL TO 911?

I'm aware of the one stranger that apparently initiated the 911 call on behalf of the oldest brother that we hear the adult male quickly hand over the call to the brother to speak with dispatch.. I know earlier on there were some who mistakenly believed this particular stranger had actually contacted 911 BEFORE DAD HAD CALLED(IMO the confusion came from media having released the calls NOT IN CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER) ..factually speaking it was Sergio who called 911 first with very soon there after the stranger/oldest brother placing a 911 call from somewhere else entirely due to the fact the eldest son was at that time searching the neighborhood for Isa..

So there is now info that yet another, second stranger via one of the brothers searching is also to have made a call to 911 and this call was to have preceded the dads call and the other strangers call? ..news to me if so...

TiA to anyone who can clarify

Same call. Same confusion.

 

[jennapuppy]

IMO...I still feel Sergio did NOT sleep that night....what ever one might want to make of that....just my opinion...

I agree. I think the story of falling asleep on the couch is his excuse for why he never went to bed and, if it is a lie, explains the nervous laughter when he says this to the 911 operator. IMO

 

[fancyface]

exactly! just my opinon

 

[joedotnet]

We need a sticky with all theories so we can create odds on each for when the truth breaks.

 

[Whisperer]

BBM: Item no. 2 makes me think that things were too clean and LE thinks someone "cleaned up" to destroy evidence.

OMG! it's LT!

:woohoo:

 

[cluciano63]

I dont know if this has already been linked or not. I tried to scan the pages but all I saw was mostly about drug cartels.

We contacted Child Protective Services, but an official said the department can't talk specifically about the Celis case. So KGUN9 contacted an expert who handles CPS cases. Kathy Rau is the Executive Director of the Southern Arizona Children's Advocacy Center and a former TPD investigator on missing child cases.

Rau answered, "If there is a level of concern for one parent and not the other, then they may ask if that parent will voluntarily leave the home until CPS gets this straightened out."

KGUN 9 reporter Valerie Cavazos asked if there could be some outside factors that's connected to that parent that would prompt CPS to take action. Rau replied, "It could be either one. There is a concern the children may not be safe with the parent or the environment the parent is presenting."

When a parent is not arrested, Rau said, "It means there's no probable cause. There's not the legal requirement for the evidence for that person to be arrested, or the arrest is pending, or the person is not a suspect."

http://www.kgun9.com/news/local/151466045.html

******************************************

IMO, Sergio will not be arrested and whatever this is may not even be an arrestable offense.

Or, the evidence does not yet rise to the standard needed by LE, but CPS is lower. JMO

 

[fancyface]

I agree. I think the story of falling asleep on the couch is his excuse for why he never went to bed and, if it is a lie, explains the nervous laughter when he says this to the 911 operator. IMO

In opinion, I think you are exactly right!! ...he sounds so creepy on that call,

 

[LisaB]

I'm having an issue with how Isa was removed from the yard. The only way out onto the street would be throuh the garage door, over the fence, or the gate door. RC tells 911 that the door was locked. I am in agreement with an earlier post that RC likely meant the gate door when referring to "the door". If that was locked it's unlikely that was the exit point. According to the floor plan I saw posted, the garage is an unlikely exit point because the perp would have had to carry Isa across the family room where Sergio was sleeping. I assume he was watching TV there because he mentioned that there was a wall between him and Isa's room...unless he was watching TV in the Den (?). Finally, there is the possibility of exiting through the window and scaling the fence with a 40lb child. Is there video of the yard after her disappearance? Were there items stacked against the fence that would allow someone to climb on them to get over the wall?

In the earliest photos released a ladder is laying on the ground beside the home.

 

[IHAVENOCLUE]

Okay, this is OT, but in the book I am reading right now, nothing to do with anything, a sentence stood out to me...talking about how people are calm when someone is dying, etc....it says it is when hope is gone, that is when one becomes calm, and that hysteria is due to still hoping for a better outcome...

Anyway it is just a sentence, but it made me think of Rebecca, hysterical/hoping and Sergio, calm?

JMO

wow, Clu......

what an incredibly profound quote/phrase!

I will remember this one!

 

[prima.facie]

Snipped by me

I am also not taking what this particular witness says as that credible. LE most likely asked her not to speak to the media, but there she was in the same week on NG. JMO


Thank you! I've been surprised that I havent seen anyone else mention the credibility of this ear witness account. What would it do to everyone's personal theories if that whole 6:30 am dogs barking/men's voices thing was taken out of the equation? I can think of a couple of different reasons for this story to be completely fabricated (IMO) and yet it seems everyone has taken it to be pure fact.

I have real issues with ANY "witness testimony" regarding any topic.
I take what the neighbor says with a grain of salt..........BUT.....I also take what mom and dad say with a grain of salt too.

I am jaded and I just dont trust people enough to blindly believe someone just because they open their mouth and words come out...

If words can match up some evidence, then I will take words as holding weight. Until then...they are just words to throw around and contemplate....or throw at the wall and see what sticks....

....just my lil' ol' opinion....

With that said....my theory is: :banghead: because there is hardly ANYTHING to go on.....again, everything is game....everything is still on the table. Im even open to aliens in a UFO coming down and taking her:ufo: right about now :giggle:

 

[abstr]

I have real issues with ANY "witness testimony" regarding any topic.
I take what the neighbor says with a grain of salt..........BUT.....I also take what mom and dad say with a grain of salt too.

I am jaded and I just dont trust people enough to blindly believe someone just because they open their mouth and words come out...

If words can match up some evidence, then I will take words as holding weight. Until then...they are just words to throw around and contemplate....or throw at the wall and see what sticks....

....just my lil' ol' opinion....

With that said....my theory is: :banghead: because there is hardly ANYTHING to go on.....again, everything is game....everything is still on the table. Im even open to aliens in a UFO coming down and taking her:ufo: right about now :giggle:

I agree....and I think that there is so much speculation....

 

[callyn]

I thought the latter came from the inoperable red car.

Two separate incidents. They took a towel wrapped object in, came out with what looked like a comforter.

At a different time, pillow and blanket (or something similar) were removed from the inoperable car

 

[gitana1]

Okay, now I am confused......where did the 'drug cartel' thing come from? I am really not being snarky, but I have seen (and added) links and posts on the whole gun thing, but haven't seen anything on drugs or drug cartels except folks questioning that.

Where did that theory come from if I can ask?

There are alot of threads to wade through, but can someone clue me in?

Also, are the beach towel and the blanket the same item just being called different things by different reporters? I am trying to understand that one.

TIA!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I searched threads 1, 2 and 3 with the key word cartel. It was first mentioned in thread three, on April 24, 2012: Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community - View Single Post - AZ AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #3 It was in response to a question about the possibility of a Zambian child sex trafficking operation, or something like that.

I believe the subject came up before we heard the neighbor mention the rumors. I think it was a matter of time, frankly, before someone in the world though of the possibility and it made its way onto these threads, solely because many people see Hispanic people close to the border of Mexico and it comes to their minds, IMO.

Perhaps there is information out there suggesting such a possibility but thus far, I have not really seen anything definitive that connects Isabel's disappearance to cartels or trafficking. Just rumors.

Of course, there were rumors on the Cole Puffinburger thread quite early on about cartel involvement and those rumors proved true - allegedly. But, while it is an interesting subject, I don't think it is likely to have a basis in reality in connection with Isabel and I'm sure we don't want the threads to get too far out there with unfounded rumors or wild speculation with nothing to back it up, being the main topic of conversation, I think? Nevertheless, we know practically nothing, officially, about this case, so, I will try to keep an open mind.

 

[LisaB]

An item was reportedly brought into the house inside a towel, and a blanket or comforter was later brought out of the house.

I thought the latter came from the inoperable red car.

Iirc the item that was in the towel was taken out of the trunk of one of the detective cars.

Yes. The towel came from LE vehicle, and the other blanket(s), IIRC, came from the red car rather than the house (I have used red to denote these items above).

 

[prima.facie]

True, but why on earth get LE involved then? OR, why not call LE and tell them about the demands and work quietly with them instead of apparently lying about the circumstances? Why act as though you had no idea where your daughter is when a demand has been made by a specific person or group of people? I just can't see the logic in that. I am totally open to the idea that Isabel was kidnapped because of something the parents or a parent was involved in, but the circumstances of what happened after just don't jibe with how I'd expect a parent in that situation to act.

IMO

As always, my opinion can change upon further facts or actions by parents or LE.

If one has something to hide of a criminal nature....LE is the last place you are going to go....IF....IF....IF....IF....there is some connection then he may not want to admit his involvement nor piss off "those people" by confessing anything...

I see lots of reasons why he would keep mum.....