Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #4

[Deleted member 339914]

I also feel like someone at the dinner/assoc with the business has unwittingly mentioned info on Sam to someone connected to the kidnappers.

 

[SouthAussie]

It was stated that there was a lot of "movement" at the house that morning.

I think it was stated that there was a lot of movement throughout the day? I don't think Mark Hatt was specific on the times of day of the movement.

imo

 

[Toowong(s)]

What might be more imminent though could be an early morning raid with search warrants.

I feel like this would have happened by now, if the answer was so obvious. For example GBC had his house and office raided on Day 6, weeks before a body was found and he was arrested. The media and police heat on GBC was palpable from the outset.

We are not seeing the same focus from police or media (who I’m sure know much more than they can print) which is why other theories than the cliche are much higher on my list of likely explanations. But not ruling anything out.

 

[Deleted member 339914]

Remember that motive can simply be the thrill that some humans get from having power over another living being ... trapping them, watching them struggle to survive , the frustration and despair. I work in animal welfare and have seen what humans can do to animals ... such humans can do it to other humans too.

 

[Dotta]

which is why other theories than the cliche are much higher on my list of likely explanations. But not ruling anything out.

So...

Which is on top on your list????

 

[Deleted member 293720]

It doesn't look good

Now, I'm not sure Samantha will be ever found.

I am confident once they get the perpetrators charged, someone will speak

 

[Bogbacal2]

Perhaps it was damaged by SM putting up a fight? Maybe they found evidence of the struggle at the scene.

Perhaps it was a vehicle that already had damage….at a repair shop????

 

[Eloise]

Why do you believe there was a 'script'? Show invites some 'experts' they speculate off the top of their heads. IMO, these shows are not scripted.

JMO

they're not scripted but they're not totally off the cuff either. Questions are workshopped, and known ahead of time, so that they don't just get a bunch of dead air and "umm i don't know" and "I can't answer that". Like how celebrity interviews are always questions the celeb knows are going to be asked because they're all submitted and prepared ahead of time to prevent any wasting of anyone's time

also, this is Liz Hayes and Channel Nine - they're incredibly professional and experienced, have super close relationships with LE that they're not going to want to upset, etc

Watching Under Investigation now. These are just the thoughts I had while watching. So spoilers I guess.

- I appreciate the reconstruction clips hopefully they will help jog someones memory especially since the police haven't done the standard mannequin dressed in similar clothing.
- Having watched UI episodes before I knew not to expect any new case breaking info but this does help somewhat solidify the timeline.
- Props to Sissy for going on national TV and telling a story which is obviously still very traumatic to her.
- I agree it is interesting that Sissy's attacker was barefoot although I don't think it automatically means he had mental issues.
- I wonder if the shoes worn by the woman in the reconstruction are similar to Sam's because the are somewhat distinctive.
- How many other people have been confronted by the same man who attacked Sissy and managed to get away and haven't reported it.
- I think IF there is a man living out there in the bush attacking people he's probably not keeping up with current News reports.
- Arghhh if you were just gonna say Sissy's attack wasn't connected to Sam's why bring her on the show? She was just filler cos they didn't have enough info to actually make an episode.

I actually think excluding Sissy's attacker was the point of that, given that so many people still bring it up as an option. Plus she gave good insight into what its like to actually run that same track

Watching the Under Investigation show, the mine shaft theory can be 99.99% ruled out. They can pinpoint to within a few metres where everything unfolded and it was on a well beaten track with the phone and watch data.

I'd say at this stage the only possibility the mine shafts are relevant is if they were used to hide any evidence, given that it sounds like you'd probably never find it unless you find a trail leading straight to the mine shaft you want to look in. contrary to that "they're all covered" article that came out, it appears they absolutely are not all covered, they're super deep and treacherous, and sound like a great place to hide pretty much anything you want to stay hidden

 

[Detective Willy]

I feel so very strongly that Sam is alive and being held captive. I pray that the police are having a really close look at anyone in the area with form on drugs and assault of women. The police should do some raids. I feel it's druggo hoons with hunting dogs ... that scene.

The "experts" don't seem to think so, they all sound like they are united on this.

My guess is there was a big increase in her heart rate from the watch just prior to a "flatline".

It is so sad that Sam no longer appears to be with us and was removed from the location in a car, possibly a vehicle with damage to it.

The fact that this specific info has been released leads me to believe they have a pretty good idea of who is behind this and they are slowly building the case before an arrest.

 

[epictreasure]

I feel so very strongly that Sam is alive and being held captive. I pray that the police are having a really close look at anyone in the area with form on drugs and assault of women. The police should do some raids. I feel it's druggo hoons with hunting dogs ... that scene.

This would explain the lack of ongoing personal appeals to the public

The "experts" don't seem to think so, they all sound like they are united on this.

My guess is there was a big increase in her heart rate from the watch just prior to a "flatline".

It is so sad that Sam no longer appears to be with us and was removed from the location in a car, possibly a vehicle with damage to it.

The fact that this specific info has been released leads me to believe they have a pretty good idea of who is behind this and they are slowly building the case before an arrest.

taking a watch off would cause a watch to behave like that too

 

[ScottToorak]

There is every chance the perpetrator(s) are surfing the internet to see how close they are being watched and whether or not the community is getting close to knowing what happened to Samantha. Unsurprisingly people who commit crimes struggle to move forward in life knowing what they have done and it is even harder when taking one's life is involved. Hence, as every minute passes the life of the perpetrator just gets that little bit harder and will never get easier. On this basis if you are reading this and you were involved in this crime it would be a good idea to come forward to Police. Time in jail will be easier than knowing that one day you will be caught and be going to jail anyway. Food for thought!. Is hubby back at work?

 

[Toowong(s)]

I think it was stated that there was a lot of movement throughout the day? I don't think Mark Hatt was specific on the times of day of the movement.

imo

IMO it’s reasonable to assume MM and perhaps kids, others were coming/going searching and checking the area from as early as 9.30am, for at least an hour or two before calling police around 11? And possibly some normal Sunday activity, eg maybe MM popped out for some milk and the paper before realising SM was missing. They may even have been checking earlier say called some time after 8 and discovered SM was unreachable, checked FindMy and couldn’t see any trace of mum. We use FindMy and Life360 in our family to see who is where.

I am guessing about the times here as we don’t know timelines other than SM leaving at 7am, and I think police confirmed MM raised the alarm “in the morning” - guessing late morning after SM didn’t return on time (9am?), trying to call (was SM phone offline by then?) and attempting to find SM himself. It would be very strange IMO if MM didn’t follow something along those lines, like if he called the police before having a drive around the usual routes.

My interpretation of the police statement (below) - that they are “very, very confident” on this, confident MM has not somehow ducked out the back door, jumped in a hidden damaged vehicle he’d quietly borrowed from work, disappeared for one or two hours, committed the perfect murder and cover up, and snuck back in, without the kids or neighbours noticing or being captured on his own or someone else’s CCTV. It’s just so unlikely IMO.

Of course anything is possible though and these police statements could also be absolutely intended to be putting pressure on a POI! I can see that could be the case, but I don’t get that vibe myself from watching the press conference video.

This is the statement:

Superintendent Hatt said questions over the movements of those within the family home in the period Ms Murphy was on that run were difficult to answer.

'There's a lot of movements to and from the house during the day and again we're very, very confident we have tracked all of those movements and we are following up on everything,' he said.

Samantha Murphy: Cops investigate 'movements to and from' home

Police have said there was a 'number of movements' to and from the Murphy house on February 4, the day the mother-of-three disappeared.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[SouthAussie]

The "experts" don't seem to think so, they all sound like they are united on this.

Except criminal psychologist Dr Peter Ashkar gave a really big push for a kidnapping theory at the end of the show.

 

[Detective Willy]

Except criminal psychologist Dr Peter Ashkar gave a really big push for a kidnapping theory at the end of the show.

They have the phone and watch data though and this would be very telling. One of them said they know where the event happened within a few metres.

 

[BreakingNews]

Perhaps it was a vehicle that already had damage….at a repair shop????

Exactly. I've said several times that the vehicle could easily be one awaiting repairs from the panel beaters.

 

[SouthAussie]

They have the phone and watch data though and this would be very telling. One of them said they know where the event happened within a few metres.

Yes, but they just know (think) something compelling happened at that point. They all agree something happened at that point - something that is causing some alarm/consternation for the police.

And they have different theories about what that compelling thing may be.

Other than a medical event, of course, which the police have ruled out.

imo

 

[bearbear]

the person who did this is obviously pretty clever and thorough so im thinking its just one person responsible,
it seems really stupid to me to include an accomplice, if only you commit the crime you never have to worry about someone telling, the secret is only yours, only your conscience,
and people always talk, get drunk, boast, drop hints etc, its always a liability

 

[Toowong(s)]

So...

Which is on top on your list????

I waver between
- an attack by a predator (either stalked SM or was just waiting on the trails for a chance to pounce and SM came along at wrong time)
- an accidental hit / run then cover up by someone SM was unlucky to cross paths with who has a lot to lose in that situation
- or just a more spontaneous cover up by some druggos or car thief’s or similar that SM inadvertently disturbed.

I can’t see a professional hit man taking out SM, surely they have more morals?!

 

[BoysTown]

I have tried to catch up but was over 10 pages behind….

IMO - I just watched ‘Under Investigation’ Like many of you I think it was very targeted.

Please correct me if I’m wrong but there was no montion of her husband? At all? They showed the presser which had Jess pleading…I thought that was interesting.

 

[Hats]

Exactly. I've said several times that the vehicle could easily be one awaiting repairs from the panel beaters.

It would make more sense to use one of the "loan cars" (if they use loan cars and one was available) instead an actual customer car.

Some garages use their own loan cars, while others arrange via a hire car company. I have had both types in the past.