WA WA - Shantina Smiley, 29, & Azriel Carver, 8 (fnd deceased), Olympia, Mar 2010 - #3

hi all (intro, part II) :


A CIRCUITOUS PATH
(or Route 'Reasoning')

Do think it's fairly obvious that Shantina & son planned to not take the well-trodden & expected path off to see the relatives. The 1st indication was her initial in-store appearance on the far western side of Olympia. This immediately should suggest that she probably took # 3 down from Silverdale to Shelton rather than #16 to #5 thru Tacoma. Why ?
1) There is a toll on the Tacoma Narrows bridge ($4 a few months ago), ongoing construction where #16 meets up with #5 (for the last yr. or more), & often horrendous traffic from Tacoma to Olympia. I've driven it many times & my least favorite highway stretch on the entire West Coast is the area of #5 between south of Fort Lewis to north of Fife. Congestion, construction, crazy drivers, bad roads, narrow shoulders & lanes. Not fun.
2) Route 3 can be very scenic (esp. w/ nice weather) & although certainly a lot slower, it is also a lot more enjoyable, if one has the time. [an aside here, but using the same reasoning, she could have taken #106 to Skokomish & to #101 as well, though #3 to Selton is more popular]
3) #3 IS one of 'the backroads'. And here is where the fear of another traffic citation/DUI comes in (as i think a few of you have recently suggested) but i think at least as much we should consider the possible use of drugs. Personally i don't think alcohol was necessarily the only culprit or even the major one in her 'condition'. So i'm just going to throw a few things out there. I have a female friend in the SF Bay Area who has been on one or another anti-depressant and/or anti-anxiety medication for a number of years. 'Selexa' is her favorite but she's been through the lot of them. If she combines one or more of them &/or has even a half-glass of wine or a 'toke' of marijuana, she becomes LOST ... completely. I've been in the car with her on a number of occasions & i've always been utterly amazed at her (lack of) decision making skills especially in regards to her navigation. On one occasion we ended up on the Bay Bridge & then in west Oakland just because she failed to make not one but several tactical decisions correctly in a row (she had had only her 'Selexa' that day). After that experience i refused to ever get in the car w/ her unless i was driving.
In Shantina's case however, there is yet another possibility to unfortunately consider & that is of some sort of opiate. Not heroin necessarily (although the Seattle & Portland areas are famous for 'horse' consumption), but possibly any of it's more accessible & available derivatives. I have more than a couple of casual friends & former co-workers in the area who just love their Percosets, to use one example for instance, & although their use is only occasional, they will use them as either a coping mechanism or recreationally. What potentially suggests the use in this case is how she stood while in the mini-mart videos, shoulders squared & ever so-slightly haunched, as if one were to sit back on a large rock to steady themselves if need be. While alcohol renders one 'tipsy' & lacking equilibrium, the inclination is to fall or sway to the side or back or down. With opiates, it's the mid-torso muscle groups that are most affected & especially the pelvis which is most impacted when one is trying to stay up.
She certainly didn't seem to be all that encumbered though at the time so it could just be suggestive of a past-history or tendency. However, there is also the issue with coordination in general ( hitting curb at pantry, 'hitting her head' possibly earlier, falling in parking lot). This type of motor-control difficulty could indeed suggest some type of opiates in her system as opposed to alcohol (from torso up & w/ eye-contact, etc. she didn't seem to be intoxicated like a drinker would normally be, or on her breath later). Could also well explain her propensity for 'nodding out'. Or yes, could just be meds plus a bit of smoke or wine.
Either way, i think it was her plan all along to take backroads down to Castle Rock. I also think that Robb knew this & it was why he was so quick & eager to leave his camp training early. I believe he knew the plan was to take backroads as per her condition, & also why he spent time on his way down in the Toledo-Vader road area. He may well have even traveled the backroads on the way down himself to check on her. It also is more than likely the reason why he & her step-dad left to go looking for her not once but twice that night. The first time only after Shantina & Azriel were merely a couple hours late. Unless they were otherwise concerned as to her 'tendencies' i don't think most people would send out a search party until early the next day. The only times i've ever known anyone to go out searching for someone else so soon is when the other people were known or expected to be impaired, or a very small child on their own. Then again i grew up in the 70's when no one had cell phones & rarely did people ever keep in touch 24/7. But yes, she didn't have her cell phone w/ her apparently anyway & pay phones are not plentiful like they used to be either, so why worry so soon ? Unless she was expected to be impaired.

The final piece of evidence here would be her insistence on trying to find a particular path. Not #5. She could have stayed on #101 (after taking #3 to Shelton, it winds up at #101) & it would have taken her right to #5. She knew that. No i believe she was looking for one or more connectors to the old hwy #199 so she could get back on the 'backroads'. The best choice would be to take Capitol Blvd south/southeast under the freeway for a few miles (which becomes #199). My own hunch is that she left the diner quickly (& leaving their dinner) when she spotted a patrol car & swung around in the opposite direction, thinking she would double back.

However, the old 'misdirection' kicks in & instead of traveling down & connecting w/ capitol blvd. on the right side of the water heading south, she turns onto what becomes Boston Harbor Rd. on the right side of the water heading north. And ultimately can't find her way back. [Ironically if she'd gone down Pacific the other way after leaving Martin Way Diner she could have eventually found her way to #199 that way as well]. After that, the next 'market' she comes to is closed. And she is then compelled, or rather necessitated to ask directions finally from a private residence, the Williams' on 46th ave.

Hi all (intro, part III) :

AT LAND'S END

And so too, there is the bewilderment as of how & why she ended up down a steep unlit path of a trail on the wrong end of town. It would be easy to think foul play.

1) An angry shellfish owner preserving his 'rights' with too much verve ? (there were shootings over on the west side of the peninsula this last weekend over just such an incident & small time 'growers' are fed up with poachers who are often paid handsomely by larger companies). Which local homeowner was the 1st to spot the van? Jim Pribbenow was the one to call at 10am sunday am., but supposedly someone else spotted it at daylight & then called yet someone else before they in turn asked Jim to check on it. Any one of those p-o'd farmers could have gone nuts, temporarily. How about a possible perp at that little gray-red house w/ the green roof on the top of the hill immediately overlooking the van ? Could have seen the headlights even as Shantina & Azriel drove in ... & down.

2) Or a jealous ex-boyfriend, or husband ? Talk of marriage sending a former paramour berserk w/ rage. She had talked with online & possibly met with Jerry Smiley just the past week or so before. (In Castle Rock ?) Yet Shantina Smiley & Jerry Smiley are not 'social media' friends, (but Robb & Jerry are !), so it must have been e-mail. And that fb picture of Jerry is, well, fully menacing to the say the least. And he 'breaks down' on camera after Shantina's only been gone a couple days? And nearly refers to her in the past tense before catching himself. The comparisons earlier on this board to Scott Peterson could certainly be deserving.

3) Obviously Robb has been only telling half-truths, as far as Shantina's tendencies go, but personally i don't think it's in his character to himself be directly incriminated in her disappearance, plus his 'alibis' obviously preclude any personal untoward behavior, so i think time should be spent instead on other considerations. In this case a lack of a scent trail at "land's end", or Little Fishtrap if you'd rather. Which brings us especially to the Grimmers house where, purportedly someone knocked at 1 am on sat. night/ early sunday but no scent trail was discovered leading to or away from the house & some have discounted it as simply an audible manifestation of a ghostly disturbance. Once or twice would make sense. But four knocks? And reportedly, the knocks came from the side of the house, near the garage, but the father went to the front door instead ? That was unfortunate. Just being a protective husband & father, now 3 times over (Rachel who was pregnant, had a child the middle of this week).
But who was knocking? And when? The Grimmers said 1 am, but clocks were turned forward that night at 2 am. Usually when a working family goes to bed on the eve of a time-change they set their clocks beforehand (unless they're lazy like me & they wait till the next day upon rising). If it's a cell-phone or computer modem the change is usually marked automatically, but not simple electric or battery operated clocks. Rachel was watching a movie. More than likely a dvd. Most older players will not record a simple time-change, although some of the new fangled models may, especially if it's programmed into a satellite box. Nevertheless, the time recorded as 1 am, could well actually be 12 midnite, by the old Standard Time settings, which would make it quite possible that Shantina &
Azriel were not even on the beach yet. If not even likely.
But even if the 1 am time signature HAD been in the old measurement, it still could mean that Shantina & Azriel went to the beach AFTER their visit to the Grimmers. If one of them had briefly gotten out of a car, knocked & then jumped back in, there would be little scent left. And as far as the tides go, the water was at its lowest at just before 11 pm (old time), would have still been fairly low at 12 or even 1 am (old time), rose over the night and then at its absolute highest at just past 6 am (new time). 'Midtide' would have been around 2 am (oldtime) or 3 am (new time). So a Midnite traversal of the beach would have been possible still, & perhaps even at 1 (oldtime), though w/ even less room for navigation. Still this leaves why ?

I am inclined to think the progression down Zangle road was a natural choice, considering her disorientation & apparently still thinking, north was east, or even south. She may have taken a couple more dead ends after leaving the Williams' house, the most obvious & likely being down Boston Harbor Rd NE to Burfoot Park & past, only to have to leave there in humiliation too. By this time, drugs or no drugs, she was experiencing i'm sure, extreme exasperation, as well as lack of energy from no food. It is at this point that i believe she hung an actual easterly turn & went down 73rd to Zangle Rd. which in her mind she hoped would take her alongside the water & 'south' to Hwy 199. Instead, Zangle Rd. more or less comes to a dead-end at the 2 houses, & so as she is once again turning around, possibly even backing down into the beach trail, she decides to at that point take a chill-pill (figure of speech) & give up for the night, get some shut-eye, & get out of there in the morning. I know i would have done the same. So she decides to back down a little further & further, expecting perhaps a parking lot at the end (I use to drive a Dodge Caravan, & despite a lot i didn't like, the one i had did feature excellent back-up lights). Of course, there is that wood abuttment/fence at the bottom of the hill she probably couldn't see, which if that IS a scrape on the right side of the car this would most likely be the source of it. What i couldn't figure out earlier is that the apparent scrape began about a yard up from the rear of the vehicle & ends just before the wheel basin. The frame protects the wheel area by jutting out a bit there & so the mark could not have been made by moving forward into an obstacle (likewise the door handles are not impacted so a taller object like a pole could not have been the cause), and had to have been made either by backing into an object about 2 1/2-3 ft tall or by another vehicle striking it.

Following this, she probably did what most vehicle owners would do, back up a bit to move the car away from the object, get out & check the damage. This puts her car however on soft, damp sand & after stopping to check the car's condition, she has difficulty moving it forward again. This is what you'd call a make or break moment. One frustration after another to the point of practical immobility.
If there was any point during this entire adventure that constituted a candidacy for a potential nervous breakdown, this would have been it. 'Good thing' she has the wine. [Another aside, some have spoken disparagingly of how no one would ever bring that sort of wine 'as a gift', & it is possible she meant it entirely for her own consumption, however i actually DO know people who will bring or offer that type of gift, especially if they are not necessarily under any great impetus to try to impress their hosts. Remember this is her estranged step-father we are talking about, somebody who may have wronged her in the past & someone who may even have less than parochial tastes anyway. Now if she had bought a 40 oz. beer or a half-pint of whiskey then one could safely assume it was originally intended for herself. Either way, after perhaps a bit of complaining & crying, it is time to bed down, & because he is substantially smaller, Azriel is elected to sleep in the back while Shantina stretches out awkwardly on the rear seat. What happens next is of course great conjecture but I would suggest Shantina, despite the wine, is the first to actually get out of the car. Why? The side door that is left open is on the left-side of the car, whereas we see Azriel earlier in the evening getting out on the right side. Besides he would have to climb over his mother to get out & there again why use the left side ? She gets out on the same side she got into the back (from the driver's side) & then opens the hatch to wake him & pull him out. Unfortunately, he is heavier then he used to be, & she would have been standing in quite a bit of water
as well as very soft sand & almost assuredly has trouble lifting him down. They both tumble & go under.

Hi all, (intro, part IV)

Final Considerations :

The knock on the Grimmers.
If it did occur after the car ended up on the beach, i'm guessing it would have had to have been by either one of them alone, but not together (since no scent), & most likely by Azriel alone going to get help after getting stuck on the beach but before being caught in the water which wouldn't have happened until after 3 am (new time) at the earliest & more likely closer to 4 am.
The Grimmer's house, as posted on this board a couple days ago, & according to available tax records is at 8520 Island View Drive NE, not at any address on Island View Court (all of which would have an ocean view & potential ocean access). The address for the house in the circulated Bing image w/ the long staircase descending to the beach is 8545 Island View Court NE & owned by one Cynthia Zechmann (as of 2008).
Little Azriel may have checked out the stairs but I doubt he would have gone up & then down them.
It is much more likely he would have ran back closer to the car where there appears to be a small footpath leading up the hill on the east side of Little Fishtrap to roughly just west of 8411 & 8435 Island View Court. The Grimmer's house at that point may have been the only one around w/ big welcoming lights on. They were but a short jaunt across the large lawn area of 8540 Island View Court. Unfortunately when they heard the knock, they turned out the lights & turned on the security alarm. At this point he would have had no choice but to go back & stay w/ & try to help his mother. As to why no scent was found for him (in this explanation), i'm wondering if perhaps they had the dogs at the Grimmers checking both scents or were they checking for just Shantina's, assuming he would be with her ? It's also possible that if he ran on their driveway quickly & w/ wet, sandy shoes that it might not be enough to leave a significant scent. My brother used to have hounds, & i guarantee they are not infallible. (The Grimmer's house does not show up on Bing or Google aerial photos since it was not built until the end of 2008, it is seen only as a grove of trees or a lot partially cleared, unfortunately.)

The belongings that washed up near Little Fishtrap.
This is unbelievably important evidence as to what happened before & after. In particular precisely where they were found. It is extremely important I think that the detectives talk to Cora Tunberg again & have her show them exactly where the items were. As has been pointed out here, if the items were found all piled together, that would indicate tat they were left there as opposed to accidentally carried there by the water. And it would be ominous as all heck I think. If on the other hand, they were strewn about fairly haphazardly along a few hundred or even a few dozen yards then it would be clearly tidal re-deposition. This needs to be checked out.
Why ominous? Simply it would indicate that someone had placed the belongings there. Left them or dumped them. Why? An 'incident' occurred & those items were no longer needed, nor wanted. And it could indicate, if nefariously that Shantina could still be alive.
(Ironically, Cora's husband is a long-time Physician at a practice nearby on Libby Road. It's too bad, Shantina & Azriel did not have the good fortune of knocking on their door that night. I'm sure good aid would have been found.)

The nature of the relationship between Robb & Shantina & their future.
Personally, as I know others on here have suggested as well, I can't help but think that the future for the extended family was not as rosy & hunky-dory as made out (largely by Robb himself). There are a number of reasons to indicate that Robb & Shantina had recently had a pretty major fight.
#1 indicator is that she chose not to wait for Robb to get home so they could go down together as would be expected of the happily & recently engaged. Instead she chose to jet off by herself instead.
Alone with her kid. (& where were the other kids of Robb's? They weren't with him. Were they at their mothers?)
#2 consideration is that a partner's ill health is not by itself enough usually to drive one to drink. It might make the afflicted more ready to drink but it's not the best reason for a partner to suddenly take up alcohol (or drugs).
#3 thought is why the overnight bag? Apparently this was the 1st time down to visit the step-dad for Rob (if Robb was indeed invited along) & possibly the 1st time that Shantina's seen the guy in a long while as well (remember they've been estranged) & so suddenly they're all going to do a sleep over at this guys house? That's not normal, especially when there is only a 2 ½ hr. drive home to Silverdale.
You go for an early supper & then come home.
My own guess is that they did have a good size fight a night or two previous, Shantina threatened to take a hike & Robb said fine ! (which he later may have much regretted, realizing if he does have a harsh illness, he might not find someone else anytime soon to be there for him).
Or there was discussion of previous significant others on either of their sides. While Shantina had recently re-established contact with her ex-husband, Jerry Smiley unfortunately comes off to be a bit of a jerk, & perhaps similarly, & even more arrogantly, self-concerned than Robb. No, once again, i'm thinking the ball had only been partially in Shantina's court by way of deflection. It's quite possible that, if this new medical condition of Robb's is true, that he found out either Shantina wasn't exactly thrilled at the prospect of full-on marriage or that it scared him into perhaps wanting to be with his ex-wife for the sake of their children. Shantina was the odd-girl out, (& Azriel purely excess).
Once again I have come to the inescapable conclusion that Shantina, in response may have initially threatened suicide, only to later recant & say no they were just going to go down to her step-dad's & leaves his #. Robb calls him & explains how worried he his about what she might do, how she's been drinking or using drugs, etc. & step-dad says yeah, come down.
There is also the possibility, though slight, that Shantina may have been the one w/ the medical condition, & just wanted to get out & clear her head & maybe find a new path.
Either way, the whole thing is a tragedy on practically every level. The one thing that continues to bring a smile though is that knowing, & this is apparent from the store footage of her interaction w/ her son, & though she might not be completely 'clear-headed' at the moment, it is nevertheless seemingly an interaction of love & affection. Young mothers, especially without a strong family situation at hand, often make dumb decisions that can have devastating consequences for their young ones. When I was Azriel's age, my mother made many similar errors of judgement. Many times we'd wind up out in the middle of nowhere on some little road & her sometimes without an inkling. I & my little brother were lucky however. I learned to read literally, by reading traffic signs & road maps. And there was the good grace that came in the form of many kind strangers. I wish the same, ultimately, could have been true for these two.



(& thanks for reading through all this, if you have ... 1st time i've signed up & posted on one of these boards)

Well then, I guess that wraps up this case lol.

Thank you, Aion. That was a treat, and you are a delight.

Welcome to Websleuths. Very nice to have you here.

BeanE

Thanks Aion for the detailed post. I found it really interesting and it gave a lot of food for thought. I encourage you to keep posting.. not only on this case but on the others.. Your insight is very well noted.

PaulR said:

Does anyone think RS had anything to do with the death of Az and the almost certain death of SS?

If not, then why are we sleuthing him?

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Sleuthing? lol I just think that sounds funny...

Anyway, I posted my theory of what happened. I don't believe he caused her death, but I do believe he factored in to her seemingly bizarre behaviour that night.

Cher352 said:

I think it was determined a couple of days ago on one of these threads that was a boy's size 13 shoe that belonged to Azriel not a man's size 13.

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If you compare the shoes to the other items in the photo, I don't believe the larger one was a size 9.

You've obviously given this case considerable thought. Thank you for sharing your thoughts. You are indeed delightful!

Hi Hounds!! Hope we have some answers today and she is found. I wonder if she followed someone down to the beach? I wonder why the person who saw the car completely submerged did not call 911? I wonder why her over night bag, their coats, their glasses, their other shoes etc have not been found.


Thanx everyone for all your posts. Work keeps me from being here. See ya late tonight.

Has anyone ever answered why she was headed to the Stepfather's house and what the dynamic was between them? I still feel this info is key to understanding her mental state during that last evening and perhaps providing info as to why she was drinking and wandering about in such a bizarre manner. If this has been answered here and I have missed it I apologize.

trigger said:

I wonder if she followed someone down to the beach? I wonder why the person who saw the car completely submerged did not call 911?

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Good question.

It would be interesting to know at what time the first person spotted the van, and why that person didn't call the sheriff's office, just to have it checked.

AFAIK, the van was reported by LE at around 11:15am, or was that the time Robb was notified?

Either way, it's a long time for the van to be there and not been reported.

IMO

tlcox said:

Has anyone ever answered why she was headed to the Stepfather's house and what the dynamic was between them? I still feel this info is key to understanding her mental state during that last evening and perhaps providing info as to why she was drinking and wandering about in such a bizarre manner. If this has been answered here and I have missed it I apologize.

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I've been curious why step-father was never interviewed, but from the tone of the step-sister's comments, it didn't seem as though it was going to be contentious.

As to the mens 13 or childs 13, I don't believe I have heard it specified. However, being the mother of a young man who is about to be six, size 13child shoe, I simply assumed it was a child's shoe. That coupled with the fact that there has been no mentioned of an adult male POI. LE, I would imagine, would have given some sort of indication if they suspected there was an adult male involved and they haven't so I am going on faith that the shoe was indeed a child's.

Looking at the picture the larger shoe doesnt look like a womens shoe. The News said that RS identified the smaller of the two that belonged to SS. How does that make the larger one a childs size shoe.

Everyone is overlooking this.

http://www.kgw.com/news/local/Disappearance-of-Wash-family-vexes-police-87828912.html

Here is a pic of the shoes.




http://www.kgw.com/news/local/Disappearance-of-Wash-family-vexes-police-87828912.html

Okay, that is just messed up. Neither of those shoes appears to belong to a child. Any knowledge on the proximatey to the van these items (particularly the shoes) were? Five feet, ten, twenty?

Also, while we are at it, is this a popular location (like a teen make out spot) or is it one of those, you kinda live nearby to know about it little beaches?

The fiancé of missing 29-year-old Shantina "Kat" Smiley of Silverdale told investigators the items found did come from the woman's van. Robb Simmons said of the items found on the beach, he recognized the orange plastic ball, a small black shoe, and an asthma inhaler.

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http://www.nwcn.com/home/Fiance-Items-found-belonged-to-missing-woman-son-88432872.html

bbm

He apparently didn't identify the larger shoe, perhaps it isn't connected, to this case.

trigger said:

Hi Hounds!! Hope we have some answers today and she is found. I wonder if she followed someone down to the beach? I wonder why the person who saw the car completely submerged did not call 911? I wonder why her over night bag, their coats, their glasses, their other shoes etc have not been found.


Thanx everyone for all your posts. Work keeps me from being here. See ya late tonight.

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Hey Trig! I wonder about those items and her purse. See if we are talking "missing person" here, I don't assume she is dead. Not in any missing person case. But, the longer we go without finding her "body", the more suspicious I am the van was staged. By her and an unknown companion who she was to meet with at an appointed time, at that out of the way spot. All the stops would lend the appearance as someone "lost". Buying the booze, and leaving a half-empty bottle, to appear she was on a drinking binge when this happened. Not seeking help, when she thought nothing of approaching strangers for directions, seems inconsistant when a much serious situation than being "lost" and "stuck" occured.

I am beginning to think that Shantina was living a double life. It could be a dramatic way to end her old life and begin her new. How far by boat to Canada?!

See ya later, Trig. Don't work too hard.

tlcox said:

Also, while we are at it, is this a popular location (like a teen make out spot) or is it one of those, you kinda live nearby to know about it little beaches?

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I live in Kitsap County near Silverdale. I don't know that area, but the waterfront areas on the puget sound are sometimes hotspots for teens. Most of the teens are good teenagers just gathering together for something to do. We have a Family lakehouse and many teenagers from the lake come up to firepit when we are out there.

I would be more worried about the Homeowners thinking that SS was stealing shellfish. Tidal Flats attract goeduck and oyster poachers.