WA WA - Shantina Smiley, 29, & Azriel Carver, 8 (fnd deceased), Olympia, Mar 2010 - #5

:shakehead:For instance, if we were a jury, would there be "reasonable doubt" about SS being definitely alone with the child at the end?

Jules71 said:

MOO
If she left home at 5 and called RS at 6:45 from Olympia - her trip was on track and that is the right amount of time it would have taken to get there. She said she stopped because Az was hungry. They did not show up at her first recorded stop until 7:50 (Handy Pantry). What happened between her call at 6:45 and her stop at 7:50? I believe this is when she could have had an "accident" and "hit her head". She was lost and asking for directions at this first stop. It would be nice to know where she made that call to RS from. There is a mall near where she may have exited and the Handy Pantry. I wonder if they stopped off there for a bit.

I really think either an accident occurred causing her to hit her head, or she had some kind of brain/neurological event as others have suggested, or a psychotic episode.

I wonder if mental illness runs in her family (such as bi-polar, causing her extreme highs and lows). Her mother committed suicide 4 years prior and she had not seen her step dad since. Did she blame him? This trip could definitely cause her extreme stress which is why she may have needed anti-anxiety meds. It could have also caused her to drink to settle her nerves. She could have been stalling or having second thoughts about continuing on to Castle Rock - she may have lost her nerve.

It could be a combination of all these things. MOO

Click to expand...

I am of the opinion that she called twice at 6:45 pm, b/c RS states once to LE that he didn't answer the phone, then in an interview with media, he declares that she told him she was in Olympia, she stopped to get Az something to eat, and iirc, she said she was lost.

His cell likely would have captured that phone number or two, and LE is likely aware if it is a payphone, or whatever. Why they didn't release that information is a mystery to me, but certainly says they don't want the public to know. So, why don't they want the public to know?

nnglas said:

Also, got to wonder, who knocks on people's doors to ask for directions? The area she was in when she did that, anybody know if there were businesses in the area?

Click to expand...

There is a Lutheran Church on the corner of Boston Harbor Rd and 46th. I cannot see the Williams home on 46th AVE NE on google maps, but it looks like across the street and a little east there is a "Frank's Pickmups Truck Parts", and further down is a dance hall. Almost kiddie-corner from the Gull Harbor Mercantile is a Boston Harbor Photography. I had wondered about that earlier on because she and RS were into photography.

yosande said:

I am of the opinion that she called twice at 6:45 pm, b/c RS states once to LE that he didn't answer the phone, then in an interview with media, he declares that she told him she was in Olympia, she stopped to get Az something to eat, and iirc, she said she was lost.

His cell likely would have captured that phone number or two, and LE is likely aware if it is a payphone, or whatever. Why they didn't release that information is a mystery to me, but certainly says they don't want the public to know. So, why don't they want the public to know?

Click to expand...

It seems to me he said she called him twice around 6:45 but this is what he wrote on his web page:

BBM
"I stopped in Toldeo-Vader to make quick repair, when she called me at 6:45 from a phone. She asked me if I could grab her phone, because she had left. I let her know where I was at. She was in the Olympia area, but wasn’t quite sure of where, Azriel was hungry, so she pulled off. She made complaint of being in the traffic. She gave me the destination address and told me she would be there shortly."

Yes, sounds like LE doesn't want the public to know where that call was made from.

yosande said:

I am of the opinion that she called twice at 6:45 pm, b/c RS states once to LE that he didn't answer the phone, then in an interview with media, he declares that she told him she was in Olympia, she stopped to get Az something to eat, and iirc, she said she was lost.

His cell likely would have captured that phone number or two, and LE is likely aware if it is a payphone, or whatever. Why they didn't release that information is a mystery to me, but certainly says they don't want the public to know. So, why don't they want the public to know?

Click to expand...

This is a very good question.....

nnglas said:

Seriously? I mean she was an alcoholic that bought wine. I just don't see the sherlock holmes mystery here. She was alone on the video, alone (as far as they know) wherever she bought the corndog, alone when she asked for directions. She was already acting very strange. Not to mention her son, showed no signs of struggle or fighting.

Click to expand...

Yes, seriously. We see only snippets of her and Azriel on video that night. Add all the video times together and how much total time is it? We are talking minutes here and there are hours of time unaccounted for.

If I remember correctly, she was at the William's at approx. 10 pm, there are approx. 12 more hours until her vehicle was found on the beach. What happened in those hours ?

We do not know.

Jani said:

Yes, seriously. We see only snippets of her and Azriel on video that night. Add all the video times together and how much total time is it? We are talking minutes here and there are hours of time unaccounted for.

If I remember correctly, she was at the William's at approx. 10 pm, there are more than 12 more hours until her vehicle was found on the beach. What happened in those hours ?

We do not know.

Click to expand...

Right, this is a concern. We do not really know for sure what happened when Shantina was under the radar, out of sight....

bobcat said:

To me it's far more likely that someone else was involved in this. I don't think Shantina was capable of finding that little road down to the beach in the dark, even if totally sober. I think somebody else drove the van down there. Whether it was someone Shantina knew or not, I don't know. But I don't think it is just a matter of she was drinking and drove down to the beach where she and her son both drowned when the tide came in. There's got to be more to it than that. And what about the knock on that house at 1 a.m.? Who did that, and why?

Click to expand...

So, what you might be saying is she stopped at yet another house to get directions, or use the phone, but they weren't nice people, and she got taken advantage of. Then that person who lives in the area drove the van down there?

I don't know if there was a scent from the van. Most say no, but the stepdaughter was convincing to me when she said they "lost" the scent.

So one must consider if she was in the van when it was on the beach.
If Az was in the van when it was on the beach.
If someone threw Az into the water, perhaps at a different place, like a quarter mile north where the items were found.
If she is being held against her will in a house nearby.
If she was also thrown into the water, but at a different location than Az.

Or, if she planned this, to meet up with someone she knew, fell in love with. However, her pc would have led LE in that direction, and surely we would have heard of it by now.

One very nagging fact though is that the road/path she went down to get to the beach was an extremely unlikely coincidence, if she didn't already know it was there, plan to meet someone there, or was accosted by someone who knew it was there.

Fact; the van was found on the beach.

Has it been said by LE that she and/or Az were in the van when it was on the beach? tia

Why would it be that LE found no signs of foul play, no indications of a crime?

Mealy said there are no signs that a crime was committed.

http://www.pnwlocalnews.com/kitsap/ckr/news/89305097.html

yosande said:

So, what you might be saying is she stopped at yet another house to get directions, or use the phone, but they weren't nice people, and she got taken advantage of. Then that person who lives in the area drove the van down there?

I don't know if there was a scent from the van. Most say no, but the stepdaughter was convincing to me when she said they "lost" the scent.

So one must consider if she was in the van when it was on the beach.
If Az was in the van when it was on the beach.
If someone threw Az into the water, perhaps at a different place, like a quarter mile north where the items were found.
If she is being held against her will in a house nearby.
If she was also thrown into the water, but at a different location than Az.

Or, if she planned this, to meet up with someone she knew, fell in love with. However, her pc would have led LE in that direction, and surely we would have heard of it by now.

One very nagging fact though is that the road/path she went down to get to the beach was an extremely unlikely coincidence, if she didn't already know it was there, plan to meet someone there, or was accosted by someone who knew it was there.

Fact; the van was found on the beach.

Has it been said by LE that she and/or Az were in the van when it was on the beach? tia

Click to expand...

Yes, more good questions, more good points raised. Something could have happened in a way differently from just the two of them sleeping and awakening to the tide. That road, it is haunting, the police Lt said he could barely find it in the light.

When I first watched the interview with Dennis Williams, I thought he seemed odd. One thought I had at the time was - did he or someone else in the home offer to lead her to I-5 by having her follow his vehicle? Why did reports say "elderly couple" when they referred to the Williams? They are not elderly. I also saw an interview with a teenage male at this house.

Another thought, did Shantina follow someone (another car) onto that road/beach?

Jules71 said:

When I first watched the interview with Dennis Williams, I thought he seemed odd. One thought I had at the time was - did he or someone else in the home offer to lead her to I-5 by having her follow his vehicle? Why did reports say "elderly couple" when they referred to the Williams? They are not elderly. I also saw an interview with a teenage male at this house.

Another thought, did Shantina follow someone (another car) onto that road/beach?

Click to expand...

Ok, I think I just figured out why they made the elderly reference. According to the Thurston Co. Assessors Office, the Williams residence is owned by a woman with an entirely different last name and she appears to be in her early 70's.

Has the family spoken out looking for answers or justice for Shantina and Azriel? I'd think they'd want justice for their loved ones if there was evidence of something other than bad decisions with tragic consequences.

powayparent said:

Has the family spoken out looking for answers or justice for Shantina and Azriel? I'd think they'd want justice for their loved ones if there was evidence of something other than bad decisions with tragic consequences.

Click to expand...

I agree. But if Shantina and Azriel were my own sister and nephew, I could not rest until I had left no stone unturned. I just could not.

Theory: SS stopped to called RS, found out he was on the way and because she initially did not want to see him/or for him to go with her. She decided not to go the rest of the trip and the rest is history...

[ Firstly, thank you so much EBean, Ms.Mystery, Momtective & all the others for the nice comments & support last weekend. That was very kind & highly thoughtful of you, & quite welcoming indeed ! (& I have yet to figure out how to make a 'thank the poster' mention on the board here, but, Thank You !)

Have had a heck of a time though getting online the past several days. Quite frustratingly, it seemed like every time I would finally get online, my local internet server would shortly cut out. But in the interest of potentially getting some new theories & lines of inquiry out there, i'd like to audaciously perhaps, share a couple before my service goes down again (& many apologies if the following have already been raised & rehashed, but from what I can prematurely discern, perhaps not all of them have). ]


A BAD TRIP : ALL THAT IS BELOW IS MERELY A THEORY !
(New Profiles, part I)

Couldn't figure out why some of you kept going on about the shoe sizes a few days ago. I, like others, had wholly 'bought' the initial reports by certain members of the press that suggested the larger shoe to be Shantina's, which then implied the smaller one had to be Azriel's. Silly me ! Apparently, according to these early reports, Detective Mealy had even said as much. End of story. But thanks to several of you, the question of ownership of the shoes remained a topic. And my God is that important.

Looking again at the photo of the items that washed up in that one area of the beach shortly afterwards, it becomes clear that simply by the juxtaposition of the items, the larger shoe is clearly a much larger shoe! It is quite nearly the size of the bottle of wine. And while not entirely uncommon, a '13w' shoe size nearly always implies a visibly 'bigger' man, not only a taller one. My 'little' brother has the very same shoe size (only wears sneakers, natch) & he is all of 6'4” & anywhere between 235-285, depending upon his recent consumptive behavior.

Funny too, how when 1st hearing of the disappearance & seeing all of the surveillance footage showing her going in & out of several convenience stores I couldn't help but get the impression she was trying to escape from someone or something. No, she didn't appear outwardly to be that overly distraught. In fact, she seemed to present herself remarkably well in those videos (although in the 2nd is perhaps a wee bit tipsy, which means btw some wine was had in between the 2 stores). But nevertheless, to keep going in & out of mini-marts, & then attempt later to locate phones (& perhaps refuge) doesn't well describe someone who is merely out-of-sorts in some regard & utterly lost. No it relates as well to someone who is trying to flee (or chase) somebody or something. And now i'm convinced of it.

After the news mention of the bottle of wine & then relating it to my own experiences with female friends who did not act or think rationally when under the influence of pills & a little vino, etc., an explanation of simple 'misadventure' began to make sense too. But then there was the report of Shantina's behavior at the diner & once again one immediately gets the impression of her trying to evade or elude someone (or something). Yes, this all could be simply, momentary but profound confusion, perhaps even due to a 'bad drug trip'. But that's not the most likely cause, nor is it ever. I think the overwhelming instantaneous reaction for most of us to such an incident, even when considered separately, is that a person is fleeing. When we see someone suddenly shift from a stationary position to a kinetic one we see them as being compelled to move, to run. Either from something, or to something. And although a lot didn't seem to fit with this initial theory, or 'sense', & didn't hold our attention as much as it might have warranted, I think in terms of subsequent evidence it has once again become the obvious one. Frighteningly obvious.

[addendum: now, IF it turns out in fact that the 13-size refers to a child's size, & the 9 a woman's/man's size then we are not necessarily devoid of the same theories outlined below. It simply means the other qualifying determinators would have a slightly different re-ordering.]

nnglas said:

Also, got to wonder, who knocks on people's doors to ask for directions? The area she was in when she did that, anybody know if there were businesses in the area?

Click to expand...

When I heard the reason Williams gave that she knocked on his door because of a religious sticker on his car gave me chills. I just wasn't buying that story. Also when I borrow my daughters car I always hit the wrong button to lock her car/open and always when filling up my car I always open my trunk instead of my gas tank...

Woo hoo! Aion's back! Good to see you, Aion

bobcat said:

To me it's far more likely that someone else was involved in this. I don't think Shantina was capable of finding that little road down to the beach in the dark, even if totally sober. ...(snipped)...

Click to expand...

yosande said:

...(snipped)... One very nagging fact though is that the road/path she went down to get to the beach was an extremely unlikely coincidence, if she didn't already know it was there, plan to meet someone there, or was accosted by someone who knew it was there...(snipped)...

Click to expand...

EXACTLY. I think it would be hard to find it sober and in broad daylight and you knew where it was... Add in someone unfamiliar with the area and it is at night, they are lost and possibly drinking? No way.