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  1. #1
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    2010.04.23 Croslin's Rolling the Dice for a Plea Deal?

    In recap I felt that good progress was made in the last week, more so than over the last year but we have only reached the point of 'half-truths', not the truth. My sense is that in an act of desperation the Croslin's are rolling the dice with LE to seek a plea deal while minimizing their personal role.

    It does seem that the games have begun to try to resolve this with the least impact to Tommy, and maybe Misty as well. Obviously Tommy cracked a little and a potential plea deal is on offer *if* this all pans out. However LE sees gaps in the story and/or see the misfit with what they know and have and thus are not buying it yet so took Misty down to the docks as well. It is not as simple as they want us to believe.

    Tommy initiated a dangerous downhill dice rolling game that LE are chasing and trying to unravel as it gains momentum. If Tommy is just an accessory then either Joe is the perp and Tommy saves Misty as well (as an accessory) OR Misty goes under the bus. Tommy saves himself.

    Initially I think they tried to point LE away from the Croslin family:

    Scenario 1: If the Shell Hardbor docks were truly the dump site of precious little HaLeigh it makes me wonder if the ploy was to provide the real crime scene together with pointing at Cousin Joe and if remains were found the story is corroborated and Cousin Joe is implicated, and they are downplayed as being threatened and intimidated by the perp.

    Scenario 2: Shell Harbor could be a complete ruse and HaLeigh is buried somewhere safe. This would be another safe way to blame Joe and blame the lack of remains on time and the gators. Keeping all secrets secret. However it can dangerously backfire wasting LE time and resources further.

    What is interesting is, if this is just within the Croslin family and extended family then why did Gma S and TN pre-emptively go to the search area before the LE search began? This increases the scope of POI's IMO.

    Additionally, the theories floated so far do not map with what we know and what has transpired, e.g., why stage the MH as a stranger abduction if Joe took HaLeigh and it was an inside job? Did he come back to do that? Did he do it as part of taking HaLeigh? Why did Misty play along no matter how badly threatened? -- who is worse Joe or Ron?

    Misty is going crazy wanting to get out of jail and Hank Sr is telling her the only path she can take -- yet she refuses. To me that can only mean that if she provides the complete verifiable story that LE will accept -- she is facing more than drug trafficking.

    Tommy and Misty are stuck between a rock and a hard place, Tommy is trying to deal with LE -- he has given Misty plenty of time so does he spill all of the beans now and save himself? It is a dangerous game to play with LE and opens cracks but the game has begun.

    What do you think?
    Disclaimer: All posts are my own humble opinion. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts.



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  2. #2
    TakeNote's Avatar
    TakeNote is offline Mother to little post it my boy wonder & Founding Member of AFKBPOFPOPL
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    When I think of Misty ....KC comes to mind (duct tape)......there is a reason why Misty wont tell the truth.......i think its as bold as duct tape around the nose and mouth.....there is no way to get around that
    Last edited by TakeNote; 04-24-2010 at 01:04 AM.

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by cyberborg View Post
    In recap I felt that good progress was made in the last week, more so than over the last year but we have only reached the point of 'half-truths', not the truth. My sense is that in an act of desperation the Croslin's are rolling the dice with LE to seek a plea deal while minimizing their personal role.

    It does seem that the games have begun to try to resolve this with the least impact to Tommy, and maybe Misty as well. Obviously Tommy cracked a little and a potential plea deal is on offer *if* this all pans out. However LE sees gaps in the story and/or see the misfit with what they know and have and thus are not buying it yet so took Misty down to the docks as well. It is not as simple as they want us to believe.

    Tommy initiated a dangerous downhill dice rolling game that LE are chasing and trying to unravel as it gains momentum. If Tommy is just an accessory then either Joe is the perp and Tommy saves Misty as well (as an accessory) OR Misty goes under the bus. Tommy saves himself.

    Initially I think they tried to point LE away from the Croslin family:

    Scenario 1: If the Shell Hardbor docks were truly the dump site of precious little HaLeigh it makes me wonder if the ploy was to provide the real crime scene together with pointing at Cousin Joe and if remains were found the story is corroborated and Cousin Joe is implicated, and they are downplayed as being threatened and intimidated by the perp.

    Scenario 2: Shell Harbor could be a complete ruse and HaLeigh is buried somewhere safe. This would be another safe way to blame Joe and blame the lack of remains on time and the gators. Keeping all secrets secret. However it can dangerously backfire wasting LE time and resources further.

    What is interesting is, if this is just within the Croslin family and extended family then why did Gma S and TN pre-emptively go to the search area before the LE search began? This increases the scope of POI's IMO.

    Additionally, the theories floated so far do not map with what we know and what has transpired, e.g., why stage the MH as a stranger abduction if Joe took HaLeigh and it was an inside job? Did he come back to do that? Did he do it as part of taking HaLeigh? Why did Misty play along no matter how badly threatened? -- who is worse Joe or Ron?

    Misty is going crazy wanting to get out of jail and Hank Sr is telling her the only path she can take -- yet she refuses. To me that can only mean that if she provides the complete verifiable story that LE will accept -- she is facing more than drug trafficking.

    Tommy and Misty are stuck between a rock and a hard place, Tommy is trying to deal with LE -- he has given Misty plenty of time so does he spill all of the beans now and save himself? It is a dangerous game to play with LE and opens cracks but the game has begun.

    What do you think?
    Yeah, that conversation between Misty and Hank Hank Sr was very very telling on alot of levels. One it clearly illustrates that no, she is not a criminal mastermind,a nd planning ahead or planning at all is something that is completely alien to her, be it because of youth, lack of education, obstinate personalty, whatever. We are not dealing with Dr. Moriarity here.

    The second thing clearly seen is that yes she is deliberately avoiding telling everything that she knows. Yeah she seems to know that if she does in fact come clean with the real story, she is cooked.

  4. #4
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    you pretty well summed it up. I think Tommy's gonna spill unless he's a main perp-which is where I've been leaning, but his attorney seems pretty confident, but that IS his job, so IDK. Have these secrets really been eating Tommy alive, or was he sitting in jail & getting worried about someone beating him to the punch in the snitch game? I heard the desperation in his voice. He wanted everyone to keep their traps shut, so he could serve his drug time & move on. I don't think it was an accident that he was looking @ the lightest sentence. It gave the others something to chew on. Misty accused him of molesting her, & he barely batted an eye. She ratted him out for those burglaries, & he only seemed worried that those details would connect him to the Haleigh case. Tommy put himself at the trailer. What kind of idiot would do that, so many months after the fact? someone in need of a fix, I think. I think he's the biggest drug addict of the bunch. Why were the other inmates taunting him? What had they heard? Why weren't they taunting Misty or Ron? Ron said he had made friends & was trading candy & an inmate braided Misty's hair. not much taunting there. What kind of person would accompany someone dumping a child's body? That's beyond sick. If a person is capable of that, well then there's no limit to what he's capable of. Is Tommy guilty of Haleigh's murder? IDK, but if this was any other case, my money would be riding on Tommy all day long. Was he really just a witness to Joe? maybe. a witness to Misty? maybe. Where does Ron fit into all of this? IDK, but I'm sure he does.

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    I personally think the best way to get Misty talking would be for Ron to be released on bond. If she stays in, and he gets out...she would be furious..and probably would tell a LOT. JMO

  6. #6
    Zoe Bogart's Avatar
    Zoe Bogart is offline Let's not ask for the Moon, we have the Stars
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    The cast of characters is riddled with people with rap sheets. It's extremely difficult to separate them into "innocent" and "guilty" categories. At least in the Anthony case, all fingers pointed the same way (not counting Anthony fingers which were pointing everywhere) and included numerous non-existent characters.

    This group is highly existent, highly visible, and many of them are quite familiar with views from the inside of a jail cell. Our dilemma is "Who is the guilty party?" or "Who are the guilty parties?". Sadly, we can't pick just one. These are not potato chips, they are violent, drug-abusing people. I will pick many.

    The Babysitter: Simply because she was taxed with the job of watching the children THAT night. No criminal record that we know of before Feb 9, 2009, but definitely a lifestyle on the edge, one screaming for trouble. Sex, lies, drugs, binges, and now we have videotape, and lots of it (drug trafficking, drug bust, courthouse hearings, jailhouse visits, jailhouse telephone calls). She's given us a wealth of information since she first spoke the words to rolling TV cameras, "And that's all I know", which is the only thing about her statement which hasn't changed.

    The Father: He "wuz at werk". He tells us that all the time. We should believe him, right? He's a loving father, hard-working, and by his own admission he doesn't do drugs.

    Tommy: Violent, drug-dealing ****. Seems to be the weakest link.

    Timmy: Misty's favorite brother. Hightailed it to Massachusetts, asap.

    Chelsea: Hightailed it to Massachusetts with husband Timmy.

    Lindsy: Stuck raising little children while her husband gets three meals a day from St. Johns County.

    Hank Croslin: Collects prescriptions from doctors.

    Lisa Croslin: Has her very own rap sheet.

    Teresa: Suspicious activity since Day One.

    Great-Grandma Sykes: Makes herself available at search sites, and does her own investigations. (Where have I heard that one before?)

    Cousin Joe: Not behind bars. Got into trouble as a juvenile. Related to this motley crew (which alone begs for guilty verdict).

    And they're just the MAIN characters!

    Is it possible LE knows what went down, knows how it was done, but needs to have the main perp implicated? Obviously, they haven't found the child, so that leaves the problem of concrete evidence. They are dealing with a tough, stubborn, hard bunch. Everyone is out to save his/her own neck, their own children, their own lifestyle. The ones in jail would rather go down for drug trafficking than for any part of a murder of a small child whether it be their own action or just knowledge.

    Why not tell and be cleared? What are they afraid of? Whom are they afraid? Why make a plea of "no contest" to drug charges when they can tell what they want to know about the murder and be let off with a light sentence, or even probation for helping to solve the capital offense of murder? What is the fear?

    Many people's names are being thrown around by the media. We've seen people taken to the river. We've heard from various attorneys ("My client is innocent." blah, blah, blah, "I can't answer that."). There are assumptions all over the place.

    If I were writing this mystery, I would be throwing all the alleged "suspects" into the pot, stirring them up, letting them duke it out, let everyone else tear their stories to shreds, let 'em see the scapegoats, while I let LE do their investigation. Then I'd pull out the one I've kept hidden, in the shadows, away from the media blitz. I'd parade him in front of the world, and say, THIS IS THE ONE.
    Last edited by Zoe Bogart; 04-24-2010 at 02:23 AM.
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  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by dodie20 View Post
    you pretty well summed it up. I think Tommy's gonna spill unless he's a main perp-which is where I've been leaning, but his attorney seems pretty confident, but that IS his job, so IDK. Have these secrets really been eating Tommy alive, or was he sitting in jail & getting worried about someone beating him to the punch in the snitch game? I heard the desperation in his voice. He wanted everyone to keep their traps shut, so he could serve his drug time & move on. I don't think it was an accident that he was looking @ the lightest sentence. It gave the others something to chew on. Misty accused him of molesting her, & he barely batted an eye. She ratted him out for those burglaries, & he only seemed worried that those details would connect him to the Haleigh case. Tommy put himself at the trailer. What kind of idiot would do that, so many months after the fact? someone in need of a fix, I think. I think he's the biggest drug addict of the bunch. Why were the other inmates taunting him? What had they heard? Why weren't they taunting Misty or Ron? Ron said he had made friends & was trading candy & an inmate braided Misty's hair. not much taunting there. What kind of person would accompany someone dumping a child's body? That's beyond sick. If a person is capable of that, well then there's no limit to what he's capable of. Is Tommy guilty of Haleigh's murder? IDK, but if this was any other case, my money would be riding on Tommy all day long. Was he really just a witness to Joe? maybe. a witness to Misty? maybe. Where does Ron fit into all of this? IDK, but I'm sure he does.
    That is a great theory. I agree Tommy was involved, I don't know to what extent and I really don't want him to be because I think he is rather pathetic.

    I always thought this case and Haleigh going missing was because of a drug overdose (unintentional) or due to a altercation, again unintentional. When the rape version came up, I was horrified.

    Tommy has to stick with being there at 10:00 (doing a favor for Ron) and leaving, and never going back. I don't know if he is strong enough to defend himself throughout this, and at this point, I don't know how much Lindsay would stick up for him. If Lindsay suggests or files for divorce, Tommy is going to crack.
    Last edited by 4Jacy; 04-24-2010 at 05:11 AM.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by CarmelEyesD View Post
    I personally think the best way to get Misty talking would be for Ron to be released on bond. If she stays in, and he gets out...she would be furious..and probably would tell a LOT. JMO
    I think Ron is not being bonded out for a reason. I would be afraid for Jr and Crystal. Didn't LP say he was asked not to bond Ron out? Or is this rumor?

  9. #9
    Zoe Bogart's Avatar
    Zoe Bogart is offline Let's not ask for the Moon, we have the Stars
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    Yes, LP said Ron's new girlfriend has been hounding him to bond him out, but only if LE says it's okay. LP said it on one of the radio blog talk shows this past Sunday, I believe.

    ETA: It was on Levi's show. Here's the link. He begins talking about bail at 21:41, then they talk about Ron for a bit and LP's offer to finance a search. Extremely good info about Geraldo's interview and the 911 call. Later a caller asks about bail for RC, LP talks about it again near 53:10. It's a very good program.

    http://www.blogtalkradio.com/levipag...-investigation

    RC's mother TN and Alecia D were asking LP to bond him out, but after talking with his staff extensively they decided to wait and he thinks the story about LE got misconstrued. He said after being on the show with Dr. Glass, he's really looking at RC differently.
    Last edited by Zoe Bogart; 04-24-2010 at 11:07 AM. Reason: added link and counter locations and notes about the show
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  10. #10
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    JMO - both Tommy and Misty are trying to figure a way to get a deal. Both pointing to Joe. Both however have now made the general admissin that they knew what happened, did nothing to stop it, and for 15 months have evaded telling the tale, thus obstructing and impeding the investigation. This IMO is a desperate attempt to get a deal, but there will be no deals without the truth. They can keep right on lying, but they have succeeding in proving to LE that they are involved in some manner by even telling this yarn. No truth, no Haleigh, no deal for any of them. They are seriously deluded if they believe the lies will get them out.
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  11. #11
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    I think MC may have had a plea deal in mind when she wrote the letter, BUT she actually put herself right in the middle of kidnapping, conspiracy and obstruction charges. She could be tried as an adult, and since there is no solid proof on ToC or JO, she alone faces charges right now.

    I did a face reading on ToC in court with MC, and I couldn't see any kind of child-rapist in his character, but I do see that he is definitely involved. In JO, I definitely saw guilt in that interview with his lawyer. What gets me about MC is no remorse. In ToC you are see plenty of remorse--but too late.

  12. #12
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    Tom will likely crack first due to love of his own children and Lindsey may get a new love interest and divorse him.
    IMO, he will make a deal first.
    IMO Tom helped MC dispose of Haleigh.........at some dock???.
    Since he was always on drugs, did he lead LE to the wrong dock???
    Misty never will til forced because I truely believe MC and Ron killed Haleigh.
    Family of Ron's covered up and may talk if they are arrested.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Homegrown View Post
    I think Ron is not being bonded out for a reason. I would be afraid for Jr and Crystal. Didn't LP say he was asked not to bond Ron out? Or is this rumor?
    Don't know IF it is a true statment but that is what LP stated on LEVI's show..

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    I just hope somebody tells the truth. As pitiful as it sounds, almost 15 months after the fact, there is still someone who could be a hero of sorts for Haleigh and allow her to be put to rest properly. I am not saying anyone involved is a hero by any means--but whoever steps up, and I'm betting on Tommy right now, might prove that they still have a little humanity in them, albeit VERY little. JMO
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    Thumbs up

    Quote Originally Posted by CarmelEyesD View Post
    I personally think the best way to get Misty talking would be for Ron to be released on bond. If she stays in, and he gets out...she would be furious..and probably would tell a LOT. JMO
    Wouldn't that be something! I bet she'd be phoning the Governor's office lickity split!

    JMO
    Last edited by redcar1; 04-24-2010 at 10:54 AM.
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