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Thread: Stranger abduction theory

  1. #501
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    Bumping this thread for those of you who expressed interest in hearing ideas about a stranger abduction theory.
    Ergo propter hoc...

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  3. #502
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    One thing to think about is that TH (or any parent or stepparent with his or her own child) ran much less of a risk than a stranger or anyone else would. If she was seen or stopped, all she had to do is say, "Kyron isn't feeling well" or "He has a doctor's appointment" or "We left something in the car." Then abandon the plan for that day.

    Anyone else seen with Kyron would have a big problem.

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  5. #503
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    Quote Originally Posted by pittsburghgirl View Post
    One thing to think about is that TH (or any parent or stepparent with his or her own child) ran much less of a risk than a stranger or anyone else would. If she was seen or stopped, all she had to do is say, "Kyron isn't feeling well" or "He has a doctor's appointment" or "We left something in the car." Then abandon the plan for that day.

    Anyone else seen with Kyron would have a big problem.
    About the same risk TMH ran, actually.

    If a stranger were seen with Kyron, all they'd have to do would abandon their plans to abduct. If they were approached, just say something like "oh, I needed someone to help me bring something in from my car."

    Give up, drive away, try again a different day.

    Among many others, Ted Bundy used that basic plan. He managed to abduct Janice Ott and Denise Naslund within hours of each other from the same location, Lake Sammamish, on a very busy day. There were plenty of witnesses but very few of them actually remembered what they saw because what they saw seemed so normal: a young man with a cast on his arm talking to a young woman.

    IF Kyron's disappearance is a stranger abduction (I think the chances are against it), I think something similar may have happened as with the Bundy crimes: lots of people saw something but didn't remember what they saw because it just seemed absolutely ordinary, with no particular significance. Whatever they saw just blended into the visual "white noise" of the day.

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  7. #504
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    I like to imagine two detectives discussing this case. Both know, from experience, that anything is "possible"...the key word is what is more "probable."

    What is more probable?

    The first detective believes it is more probable out of all other scenarios that Terri Horman did this crime. The second detective feels a stranger abduction is more probable.

    Not "possible"..."more probable."...more "likely."

    When asked to defend his case that Terri is most "probable"..., Detective #1 states that she was the last person known to be seen with the child.

    He continues that she cannot account for her time that morning except to say she was "driving around. "

    He points out that in her sexting done with another man 4 days after her "loved" husband walks out, she uses the same "driving around" excuse in an attempt to lie to her attorneys.

    He argues that she says she failed several lie detector tests.

    This detective asserts as well that Terri has expressed "extreme hatred" for the missing child in emails.

    He makes the case that she has also expressed a desire to hurt the missing child.

    Additionally...a witness has been located that says Terri tried to hire him to kill her husband.

    So Detective #1 thinks, with what we know now...it is "more probable" that Terri Horman perpetrated this crime.

    Detective #2 now begins to state the reasons it is "more probable" that is a stranger abduction.

    He will no doubt say with saying that all the above are coincidences. Terri is just a very unlucky woman.

    But now he begins to make his case WHY it is "more probable" to be a stranger rather than Terri, the stepmother last seen with Kyron who hated and wanted to hurt him and cannot account for her time.

    In an objective manner, he presents the specific things he sees in this case that underlie his position.

    What are the reasons he will state?
    Last edited by stmarysmead; 11-27-2010 at 07:07 AM.

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  9. #505
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    Quote Originally Posted by stmarysmead View Post
    I like to imagine two detectives discussing this case. Both know, from experience, that anything is "possible"...the key word is what is more "probable."

    What is more probable?

    The first detective believes it is more probable out of all other scenarios that Terri Horman did this crime. The second detective feels a stranger abduction is more probable.

    Not "possible"..."more probable."...more "likely."

    When asked to defend his case that Terri is most "probable"..., Detective #1 states that she was the last person known to be seen with the child.

    He continues that she cannot account for her time that morning except to say she was "driving around. "

    He points out that in her sexting done with another man 4 days after her "loved" husband walks out, she uses the same "driving around" excuse in an attempt to lie to her attorneys.

    He argues that she says she failed several lie detector tests.

    This detective asserts as well that Terri has expressed "extreme hatred" for the missing child in emails.

    He makes the case that she has also expressed a desire to hurt the missing child.

    Additionally...a witness has been located that says Terri tried to hire him to kill her husband.

    So Detective #1 thinks, with what we know now...it is "more probable" that Terri Horman perpetrated this crime.

    Detective #2 now begins to state the reasons it is "more probable" that is a stranger abduction.

    He will no doubt say with saying that all the above are coincidences. Terri is just a very unlucky woman.

    But now he begins to make his case WHY it is "more probable" to be a stranger rather than Terri, the stepmother last seen with Kyron who hated and wanted to hurt him and cannot account for her time.

    In an objective manner, he presents the specific things he sees in this case that underlie his position.

    What are the reasons he will state?
    That Terri has accounted adequately for her time and could not have pulled off the abduction, given what we know about her activities that day, without an accomplice. And since that is extremely unlikely and there is zero evidence pointing to an accomplice, we are back at square one.
    Ergo propter hoc...

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  11. #506
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    Quote Originally Posted by PortlandMama View Post
    That Terri has accounted adequately for her time and could not have pulled off the abduction, given what we know about her activities that day, without an accomplice. And since that is extremely unlikely and there is zero evidence pointing to an accomplice, we are back at square one.
    Truthfully, we don't know whether or not there is evidence that points to or away from there being an accomplice because LE has been extremely tight-lipped about their investigation so far. We do know that LE is looking into, based on their press conferences, someone that was standing near or at the white truck that Terri drove to the school that morning. We also know that LE has asked for any information about Dede that morning as was shown on the flier that LE distributed.


    ~JMO~

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  13. #507
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    If this was a stranger abduction, then TH arranged it. JMO

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  15. #508
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    If it is true that a stranger abducted Kyron, it would have to of happened between 9:00 and 10:00, as Terri stated in one of her emails to a friend, Terri had already left the school.
    TP stated in his interview to the media, that the chaperon, in charge of Kyron's group, stated at the end of the tour,"oh no wheres Kyron there's only 5," He then said she left. This would have to have been after the class tour, other wise she would have not have left.
    LE has interviewed all the students, in Kyron's group for the tour, the chaperon and Kyron's teacher, I can see no reason that they would not have.
    Why is it that LE has not once stated, that some one other than Terri was the last known person to have seen Kyron? Why would they discount, what 7 people said, if they all said, yes Kyron started the tour
    Does any one think that if one other student, or the chaperon, told LE that Kyron started that tour, that they would still state that Terri was the last known person to have seen Kyron?
    I realize, that it has been quite some time that LE has told us this, but since that time they have never stated otherwise.
    IMO, and it seems LE opinion, Terri left that school with Kyron. IMO there were, or no red flags that a stranger/acquaintance, left that school with Kyron, by LE statements, that Terri is the last known person to have seen Kyron.
    Why have LE not arrested, or named Terri a POI, be patient, as soon as all the I's are dotted and T's crossed, it will happen. IMO.

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  17. #509
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    I am moving further and further away from the possibility of a stranger abduction, but it is still a glimmer in the back of my mind.

    Main reasons why are:

    1) No one saw Kyron leave the school. This doesn't work for or against either possibility, but just proves that it could have been a stranger. Either Terri or a stranger would have had a problem if they had been seen without realizing it; both would have been taking a big risk. What makes this a "pro" for the stranger theory is that I don't believe Terri needed to take a risk like that. She had a million ways Kyron could have died accidentally and then she would have been the perfect grieving mother who had given her life to this child.

    2) Kyron hasn't been found. Even though Terri has gaps in her timeline, it is hard for me to imagine where she could have hidden Kyron in such a short period of time where he wouldn't have been found by now. Again, being seen "off the beaten track" would have been a HUGE risk for her that she didn't need to take, but much less of a risk for a stranger who no one was even looking for yet at that time of day. Kyron could be alive on a beach in Hawaii for all we know, or he could be buried under some psycho's root cellar. But IMHO it is less likely that Terri discovered the perfect hiding spot and was never seen near it, either before or after.

    3) Sexting/affairs. I know this works against her in a lot of ways, but it also cuts the other way, IMHO. Someone who is such a master liar and criminal as to find the perfect kidnapping plot and hiding place for a body would presumably know that LE was going to look at her email and texts. Maybe she's just so compulsive that she can't help herself, but that leans AWAY from the idea of a cold blooded killer who planned this out.

    4) Lawyering up. Again, I know this works against her with some people. But when I try to think of myself in this situation () it is what I would do. If I had honestly told LE everything I knew numerous times and they clearly do not believe me; if I had taken a poly and failed even though I KNOW I am telling the truth; if I had stupid and bad things in my past that make me look bad and everyone I knew was falling away to the belief that I did this despicable thing, I truly think I would hire a lawyer and take his advice. I would suffer the terrible things being said about me, believing that I deserved it for past mistakes and bad judgment. I would not fight for my baby if I truly believe the lawyer that I could lose her forever with one PR misstep, but that if I listened to him I would get her back later. (And I think that last half-hearted attempt for visitation was Terri insisting that it was taking too long, and Houze proving to her what it was going to be like.)

    5) The PR control/attacks by Kaine and Desiree. Now before I get flamed, I do not blame them one bit. I would be spitting mad and ready to throttle Terri if I were them. So I do understand where they're coming from. But what keeps me ever so slightly off balance is how we went from complete silence and PR control...to the perfect, happy step-family all working together for the best of the children...to this nightmare of Terri hated Kyron and the marriage was virtually over and Desiree never trusted Terri to begin with. That's a pretty big swing in attitude. So while I get that at the beginning they wanted to put a good front on for the press so people would keep looking, it seems very manipulative to me. Were they lying in the beginning? Are they filtering everything through the lens of hindsight now and attributing things that weren't really as bad as they now seem? I don't know. All I can say is that, if I were a truly evil person and wanted to absolutely destroy Terri's life, this is exactly how I'd plan it. I don't know who, if anyone, has that kind of motive, but it seems just TOO too terrible considering how normal everyone supposedly was at the beginning.

    Even after all this, I still think it's likely Terri did it. But these are the things that keep one toe on the fence.

    ETA: the child's story about the "sub" is also lingering in the back of my mind. I can't wait to find out the rest of that story.
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  19. #510
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    Quote Originally Posted by PortlandMama View Post
    That Terri has accounted adequately for her time and could not have pulled off the abduction, given what we know about her activities that day, without an accomplice. And since that is extremely unlikely and there is zero evidence pointing to an accomplice, we are back at square one.
    But she has not accounted adequately for her time if her cell phone pings do NOT match her story. or her story keeps changing with each telling.

    She has not accounted adequately if the basic excuse she uses turns out to be the same one she used to lie to her attorneys.

    And since she has been proven to lie, any part of her story that cannot be independently verified is essentially worthless.

    In that case, her "accounting" becomes another lie and another pesky red flag in the ever growing group of red flags that are ominously surrounding her.

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  21. #511
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    We're in no position to know right now whether Terri has or has not accounted adequately for her time. (LE is not saying either way)

    So is there some other argument that 2nd detective might use?
    "Keep your friends close, your enemies closer, and the cookies at the other end of the table." - Kingkeld.

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  23. #512
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    Quote Originally Posted by GrainneDhu View Post
    About the same risk TMH ran, actually.

    If a stranger were seen with Kyron, all they'd have to do would abandon their plans to abduct. If they were approached, just say something like "oh, I needed someone to help me bring something in from my car."

    Give up, drive away, try again a different day.

    Among many others, Ted Bundy used that basic plan. He managed to abduct Janice Ott and Denise Naslund within hours of each other from the same location, Lake Sammamish, on a very busy day. There were plenty of witnesses but very few of them actually remembered what they saw because what they saw seemed so normal: a young man with a cast on his arm talking to a young woman.

    IF Kyron's disappearance is a stranger abduction (I think the chances are against it), I think something similar may have happened as with the Bundy crimes: lots of people saw something but didn't remember what they saw because it just seemed absolutely ordinary, with no particular significance. Whatever they saw just blended into the visual "white noise" of the day.
    Because of LE saying Terri was the last known person to see Kyron. IMO there was someone that saw Terri, with Kyron, after the time, that Terri said she, last saw Kyron.

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  25. #513
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    Quote Originally Posted by mmmagique View Post
    We're in no position to know right now whether Terri has or has not accounted adequately for her time. (LE is not saying either way)

    So is there some other argument that 2nd detective might use?
    Could it be, because of Desiree's slip, of why was Kyron by the truck, when he was supposed to be in class.
    That possibly, Terri just drove off and left him standing there and a lucky child abductor picked him and whisked him away.
    Not my way of thinking, but maybe what 2nd detective might use.

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  27. #514
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    Does anyone know when the last time LE stated that Terri is the last known person to see Kyron?

    I remember hearing it on 6/18 but wonder if they have been re-stating it each of the (few) times they have spoken...
    Just my opinion, of course.

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  29. #515
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    Quote Originally Posted by cluciano63 View Post
    Does anyone know when the last time LE stated that Terri is the last known person to see Kyron?

    I remember hearing it on 6/18 but wonder if they have been re-stating it each of the (few) times they have spoken...
    Good question cluciano. I also like to mention that Terri was the first person to report Kyron missing.

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  31. #516
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    No, Terri didn't actually report Kyron missing. It was discovered Kyron was missing when she and Kaine went to the bus stop. Terri didn't even make a call to Desiree then to tell her Kyron was missing. The school called Desiree.

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  33. #517
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    Quote Originally Posted by Curious Me View Post
    No, Terri didn't actually report Kyron missing. It was discovered Kyron was missing when she and Kaine went to the bus stop. Terri didn't even make a call to Desiree then to tell her Kyron was missing. The school called Desiree.
    http://www.oregonlive.com/portland/i..._family_f.html

    Terri was the last known person to see Kyron after she took him to school that day, and she was the first to report him missing when she discovered he wasn't on the school bus that afternoon. That day followed years of caring for him.

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  35. #518
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    Quote Originally Posted by gliving View Post
    http://www.oregonlive.com/portland/i..._family_f.html

    Terri was the last known person to see Kyron after she took him to school that day, and she was the first to report him missing when she discovered he wasn't on the school bus that afternoon. That day followed years of caring for him.
    Unfortunately, many things in that article turned out not to be true. This was Team Terri's original story...

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  37. #519
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jo in Calif View Post
    Could it be, because of Desiree's slip, of why was Kyron by the truck, when he was supposed to be in class.
    That possibly, Terri just drove off and left him standing there and a lucky child abductor picked him and whisked him away.
    Not my way of thinking, but maybe what 2nd detective might use.
    Desiree's slip that someone saw Kyron by the truck. "He saw everything" statements really have me puzzled. The facts of this case have been held back. Even the fact that Kyron was really seen by a truck hasn't been confirmed to be anything conclusive.

    A stranger or Terri? Can I really trust my gut when I feel by now LE could've offered me more reason to look specifically at her?

    Really, where is Kyron?

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  39. #520
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    Quote Originally Posted by gliving View Post
    http://www.oregonlive.com/portland/i..._family_f.html

    Terri was the last known person to see Kyron after she took him to school that day, and she was the first to report him missing when she discovered he wasn't on the school bus that afternoon. That day followed years of caring for him.
    I believe that LE at a press conference actually clarified that. Terri called the school, and then when the school couldn't locate Kyron and realized he was missing, they called 911:

    When Kyron didn't come home on the bus that Friday afternoon, his parents called the school, which in turn called 911, launching what Gates said could be the largest search operation in Oregon history. LINK

    3:46 p.m. reported to be from Skyline elementary staff, law enforcement records and Desiree:

    School secretary Susan Hall places 911 call and reports Kyron missing to authorities. Susan then calls Desiree and informs her of Kyronís missing status. Desiree speaks with Terri immediately afterward on Terriís cell phone. Desiree states she was immediately concerned because statements Terri made during that phone call didnít make sense. LINK

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  41. #521
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    Quote Originally Posted by cluciano63 View Post
    Does anyone know when the last time LE stated that Terri is the last known person to see Kyron?

    I remember hearing it on 6/18 but wonder if they have been re-stating it each of the (few) times they have spoken...
    Good question. Let us know if you find it! There are lots of press conferences and stuff to go through.

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  43. #522
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    If LE can't rule out 100% that this is not a "Stranger Abduction", then I am hard pressed
    to as well. We simply just don't know.JMO
    Last edited by kappy50; 11-27-2010 at 06:15 PM.

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  45. #523
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    The true facts of this case whether it is taken from a newspaper or hearsay is all a jumbled up mess full of words like maybe, possibly, probably - nothing sounds for sure. The facts remain vague months later. I don't know if they are being careful in the investigation to hide the fact that now it looks more like a stranger abduction, afterall, and that the school had lax policies.

    I'm feeling impatient, I'll admit. Kyron's picture is right in front of me. It was in my weekly ads which means there's a likelihood they expect him to be seen in another state alive. So, what is the real story of that day? Does LE really have it figured out?

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    Quote Originally Posted by pufnstuf View Post
    I believe that LE at a press conference actually clarified that. Terri called the school, and then when the school couldn't locate Kyron and realized he was missing, they called 911:

    When Kyron didn't come home on the bus that Friday afternoon, his parents called the school, which in turn called 911, launching what Gates said could be the largest search operation in Oregon history. LINK

    3:46 p.m. reported to be from Skyline elementary staff, law enforcement records and Desiree:

    School secretary Susan Hall places 911 call and reports Kyron missing to authorities. Susan then calls Desiree and informs her of Kyronís missing status. Desiree speaks with Terri immediately afterward on Terriís cell phone. Desiree states she was immediately concerned because statements Terri made during that phone call didnít make sense. LINK
    Exactly, Terri was the first to report Kyron missing when he didn't get off the bus. Otherwise the school would have no reason to call 911. Thanks!

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  49. #525
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    It's possible that LE still has their eye on Terri while opening their minds, or reopening them, to other possibilities...it would not be the first time that a case has undergone various theories during the course of it. It also would not be the first time that LE feels they "know" who committed the crime but can never get to the point where they can prove it.
    Just my opinion, of course.

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