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  1. #1
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    Experimental Approach: Apply a Methodology to Compile & Analyze Capsules of Data

    I've pieced together a timeline of events regarding the gun based on the few facts I've derived from the disjointed Cobra tapes. I've further verified as many details as possible with supporting statments from other sources. Note: My findings are not 100% conclusive. They do, however, form a fairly plausible timeline of events. Now I'd like us to debunk it.

    This is my interpretation of this gun business, fwiw

    1. Joe steals Ron's gun three days after his arrival in Satsuma
    2. Ron confronts him shortly afterward; big argument at Hank, Sr.'s house
    3. Ron has an idea that it might be in the culvert and tells Misty to look there
    4. Chelsea and Misty find the gun in the culvert and return it to Ron
    5. Ron cleans it and hides it in his room in the MH
    6. A few days before Haleigh's disappearance, he walks around the corner to Tyler and sees Joe's gf looking in the culvert because Joe thought the gun was still there.
    7. GF goes back to Orlando because Joe wants to stick around Satsuma a little longer until he can find the gun
    8. Ron knows Joe will come looking for it, so he removes all of the guns from the MH
    9. Joe does go to the MH to look for the gun on Monday when he knows Ron is at work
    10. An altercation ensues
    11. Haleigh dies later that night as the result of a possibly unrelated incident

    If we address one point at a time, eventually we can compile our information and from that compilation formulate a viable conclusion.

    For example, if you agree or disagree with item 2, type: Item 2: I don't think Joe stole Ron's gun because...;

    or conversely, if you believe Joe did steal Ron's gun, you'd type;
    Item 2: I'm convinced Joe stole the gun because...

    • Include as many details as necessary to support your argument but avoid spilling over into another topic.
    • Answer as many line items as you wish. But, again, make your best effort to limit your explanations to the topic of the line item in question.
    • Add any relevant points that have been omitted
    • Limit your opinions to those based on facts; or reasonable speculation, a conclusion supported by verifiable facts

    Rahter than have our thoughts scattered all over the place, they would be compiled under one worksheet, if you will, and the answers subsequently compiled and analyzed for weight and merit. Ideally, we'll recruit an objective third party to perform the analysis.

    If this model works, we could apply it to other aspects of the case. It would eliminate the constant rehashing and a lot of head banging. That's not to say members, especially new members can not bring up a previous topic. But rather than starting from scratch, we'd have a foundation to keep the speculation grounded.

    Often members have opinions about one aspect of a situation, but are not sure about the others, so they hesitate to post for fear of being challenged about what they don't know. This way, those members can pick and choose the topics they are comfortable commenting about.

    I hope the mods will approve this model and I encourage members to participate. If it flops, eh, nothing gained, nothing lost.
    Last edited by bessie; 08-26-2010 at 03:40 PM.
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  2. #2

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by justus4all View Post
    bolded by me...In regard to number 8 ..IF Ron thought this...how did he think Joe would get it in MH????...Break down the door???? Break in a window??? Ron would tell Misty NOT TO OPEN THE DOOR if Joe showed up at the MH....For Ron to remove ALL his guns from his residence, IMO..would be so the LE would not find his guns if searched....IMO..not for Joe "breaking in"....Misty would surely call the LE if the MH was being broken into...BY ANYONE...Didn't LE say there was no sign of a door being broken into???
    moved from another thread to start things off.
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  4. #4
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    OK here goes....

    Regarding your item 8 and 9...

    Item 8...Ron knows Joe will come looking for it, so he removes all of the guns from the MH

    Item 9..Joe does go to the MH to look for the gun on Monday when he knows Ron is at work.

    My question is....HOW does Ron EXPECT Joe to GET INSIDE his home??? Break down the doors????...Break out a window???..If Ron had instructed/warned Misty..NOT TO LET Joe in.........Surely the neighbors would have heard doors/windows being shattered..of a break in...Didn't the LE say there was no evidence of the doors or windows being broken..???IMO....Ron removed all his guns from the MH..right after Haleigh was shot at Hank Sr house....which brings me to Item 2 on your list..

    Item 2.Ron confronts him shortly afterward; big argument at Hank, Sr.'s house
    I am not sure, (not enough info..) if Joe was at Hank Sr's house..and was involved/a part of/witnessed..the injury to Haleigh there.

    It could have been..(again..IMHO)..Misty, Tommy, Ron..and maybe Joe was at Hank Sr,s house partying..(after Haleigh was picked up from the bus stop by Misty)..and Haleigh was injured/shot/killed there at the house..NOT on Green lane..all in my own opinion

    Hope this helps..

    WHOOPS!!! I see you brought this over from another thread...thanks
    Last edited by justus4all; 08-26-2010 at 03:43 PM. Reason: double comments

  5. #5
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    Excellent
    Kyron, HALEIGH, ADJI & Gabriel NEEDS PRAYERS NOW TO FIND THEM!. Zahra & Jonathan in heaven
    Justice for Hailey!!!!
    No Justice for Caylee Marie..........

  6. #6
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    Item 2: I believe a fight over the gun did take place at Hank Sr's house before his accident while he was still a pretty threatening figure. Ron says this to Cobra in the tape. Also, Hank, Sr. alluded to an incident at his house with Joe in one of the May jailhouse tapes with Tommy.
    Last edited by bessie; 08-26-2010 at 04:10 PM.
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  7. #7
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    Item 3: Ron has an idea the gun is in the culvert and sends Misty to look there.

    If Ron is to believed in the Cobra tapes, he implies that he figured out that's where a "criminal" like Joe would hide a gun. I don't know if Ron is that clever, but Misty did say that Ron told her to look in the culvert, and sure enough, the gun was there.
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  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by bessie View Post
    I've pieced together a timeline of events regarding the gun based on the few facts I've derived from the disjointed Cobra tapes. I've further verified as many details as possible with supporting statments from other sources. Note: My findings are not 100% conclusive. They do, however, form a fairly plausible timeline of events. Now I'd like us to debunk it.

    This is my interpretation of this gun business, fwiw

    1. Joe steals Ron's gun three days after his arrival in Satsuma
    2. Ron confronts him shortly afterward; big argument at Hank, Sr.'s house
    3. Ron has an idea that it might be in the culvert and tells Misty to look there
    4. Chelsea and Misty find the gun in the culvert and return it to Ron
    5. Ron cleans it and hides it in his room in the MH
    6. A few days before Haleigh's disappearance, he walks around the corner to Tyler and sees Joe's gf looking in the culvert because Joe thought the gun was still there.
    7. GF goes back to Orlando because Joe wants to stick around Satsuma a little longer until he can find the gun
    8. Ron knows Joe will come looking for it, so he removes all of the guns from the MH
    9. Joe does go to the MH to look for the gun on Monday when he knows Ron is at work
    10. An altercation ensues
    11. Haleigh dies later that night as the result of a possibly unrelated incident

    If we address one point at a time, eventually we can compile our information and from that compilation formulate a viable conclusion.

    For example, if you agree or disagree with item 2, type: Item 2: I don't think Joe stole Ron's gun because...;

    or conversely, if you believe Joe did steal Ron's gun, you'd type;
    Item 2: I'm convinced Joe stole the gun because...

    • Include as many details as necessary to support your argument but avoid spilling over into another topic.
    • Answer as many line items as you wish. But, again, make your best effort to limit your explanations to the topic of the line item in question.
    • Add any relevant points that have been omitted
    • Limit your opinions to those based on facts; or reasonable speculation, a conclusion supported by verifiable facts

    Rahter than have our thoughts scattered all over the place, they would be compiled under one worksheet, if you will, and the answers subsequently compiled and analyzed for weight and merit. Ideally, we'll recruit an objective third party to perform the analysis.

    If this model works, we could apply it to other aspects of the case. It would eliminate the constant rehashing and a lot of head banging. That's not to say members, especially new members can not bring up a previous topic. But rather than starting from scratch, we'd have a foundation to keep the speculation grounded.

    Often members have opinions about one aspect of a situation, but are not sure about the others, so they hesitate to post for
    fear of being challenged about what they don't know. This way, those members can pick and choose the topics they are comfortable commenting about.


    I hope the mods will approve this model and I encourage members to participate. If it flops, eh, nothing gained, nothing lost.
    First, cool idea on the thread as a whole.

    Second, (color & BBM) good point; and additionally, this below also pertains to your points/post. For me, I've found the following to be a bit of a dilemma; The specific example occurred on another board, but I use it here merely to illustrate what happened (....bc it has a way of squelching healthy discussion and it can apply to message forums in general.)

    It's this;

    There are times when I want to ask something or make a point, but in doing so I need to refer to something that someone in the case (Cummings, Croslins etc) said or did and from my reading of the forum I know that this something has been discussed numerous times with links supplied upon initial discussion as verification; so from previous links supplied, the aforementioned something is rendered kind of common knowledge of sorts.

    But since I dont have the link handy to copy and paste in my post and I dont have the time (or fortitude) to sift thru pages of threads looking for where the link is posted, I just bow out and say nothing.

    The annoying part in the other instance was that this was used to silence folks with whom posters disgreed. Iow, (this is an extreme example only for illustration, but Im using it to explain the position) if I happened to post, let's hypothetically say, "Haleigh Cummings disappeared on Feb 10, 2009" and then I go on to make some point or state an opinion - whatever it is - someone (no one here -- Im just describing my hesitations in reference to your excellent point above on the fear of being challenged) anyway, someone - who typically didnt like my view - would chime in with, "Where's the link?" So rather than go on a protracted link hunt, I'd just delete it, say nothing, and log off.

    Dont get me wrong, Im all in favor of providing links and I'd say that I always, or almost always, do click the links and read them; and additionally I gladly provide them when sharing new information.

    I dont know how to solve this; I just wanted to add it to your point... in the what-causes-hesitation-and-discourages-participation department. :-)

    Great thread idea.


  9. #9
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    7. GF goes back to Orlando because Joe wants to stick around Satsuma a little longer until he can find the gun

    Item 7 I don't agree . We have absolutely no proof gf was in Satsuma to pick up Jo and he wanted to stay longer to get the gun.. Shawn Sirgo stated Jo and friend were scheduled to leave on the 10th..And those plans were made before they ever went down there...

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by bessie View Post
    Item 2: I believe a fight over the gun did take place at Hank Sr's house before his accident while he was still a pretty threatening figure. Ron says this to Cobra in the tape. Also, Hank, Sr. alluded to an incident at his house with Joe in one of the May jailhouse tapes with Tommy.
    Early on, before Ron and TN had properly coordinated their stories, TN had been on TV discussing Ron... and the gun.... and the fight. Next, (different day) Ron was on some show - I want to say it was Nancy Stripper Pole! Mini skirts! Expensive bottled water! Elaborate cheese treats! (aka cheetos) Grace, but anyway, Ron vehemently denied any gun and any fight (me thinks thou doth...) and he added, "I dont know where you people get these crazy ideas from."

    Well.. um... from your mom, for starters, dude.


  11. #11
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    #9-10. gmaw Flo said Misty was in on the theft plot, & on this I believe her. Misty had just gotten back home, she & Ron were fighting, she was probably still mad at him, & was in the mood to rally with family & get back at him. While she was gone, Ron hid his guns without her knowledge, so she was stuck explaining to Tommy & Joe, that they had been outsmarted. Maybe they thought she was lieing for Ron? an altercation ensued. But Tommy saying that Ron called him looking for Misty, makes me think the gun fight had already happened. & either the disposal was already complete, (why else would he be home to take the call?), or Tommy, after the call, went back to the trailer, found Misty gone, & that's when Haleigh was taken. Because if the fight & the assault on Haleigh had both happened earlier, why was there so much commotion, late at night? maybe Tommy is now claiming that Haleigh actually died earlier, in an attempt to cover him going back alone? Maybe evidence exist that the fight happened early,so he has to put Haleigh's death at the early time too. IDK, I'll think about this, so I can organize where my mind is going. But, there have to be reasons, that Tommy keeps changing his stories.
    Last edited by dodie20; 08-26-2010 at 05:32 PM.

  12. #12
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    Tommy claims that he was there when the fight & then murder went down, & that he was forced to go to the disposal. He claimed that Ron called him, looking for Misty, & I think Ron has verified this call. Tommy is now claiming that Haleigh died earlier in th night. So...there must be evidence refuting his earlier claims. Maybe he & Joe were witnessed outside the trailer at an early time, (so fight time has been moved up), but only Tommy was witnessed at the trailer at a later time? & he's looking to verify that he wasn't there by himself, for Haleigh purposes, by saying that Haleigh was already dead. Actually, I need to go read the report, (something I was dreading), of Haleigh being dead earlier.

  13. #13
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    8. Ron knows Joe will come looking for it, so he removes all of the guns from the MH

    He didn't remove ALL of the guns, according to this:



    http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2009/ima.../13/putnam.pdf


    But there is nothing covered up that will not be revealed, and hidden that will not be known. Accordingly, whatever you have said in the dark will be heard in the light, and what you have whispered in the inner rooms will be proclaimed upon the housetops. Luke 12, 2-3


  14. #14
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    3. Ron has an idea that it might be in the culvert and tells Misty to look there

    4. Chelsea and Misty find the gun in the culvert and return it to Ron

    Yep, that's exactly the story Misty told in another one of her failed tests as to her truthfulness. Problem is Ronald says:

    " I went straight down to the ditch…got my s*** right out of the culvert…"
    Last edited by Concerned Papa; 08-26-2010 at 07:29 PM.


    But there is nothing covered up that will not be revealed, and hidden that will not be known. Accordingly, whatever you have said in the dark will be heard in the light, and what you have whispered in the inner rooms will be proclaimed upon the housetops. Luke 12, 2-3


  15. #15
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    Is there any reason that RC would have found his gun in the culvert (or some other place) and taken it, then thought better of it and gone to hide it again, preferring to have witnesses for that gun being in that culvert?

    Say, if he knew or suspected that a crime had been committed with it he might have liked to have someone who was able to say that the gun was out of his possession for a while, anyone could have used it and put it in the culvert.

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