08-01-2011, 09:07 PM #1
Tropical Storm Emily 08.2011
At 730 PM AST...2330 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Emily was
located near latitude 15.2 north...longitude 62.0 west. Emily is
moving toward the west near 17 mph...28 km/h. A turn toward the
west-northwest and a slight decrease in forward speed are expected
over the next couple of days. On the forecast track...the center of
Emily will move across the northeastern Caribbean Sea tonight...and
approach the island of Hispaniola Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/h...with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110
km...mainly to the north of the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.
08-01-2011, 09:24 PM #2
Posted by: JeffMasters, 12:09 AM GMT on August 02, 2011
Tropical Storm Emily formed this afternoon after investigation by the Hurricane Hunters. While dodging the Lesser Antilles islands, the Hunters managed to find a closed surface circulation. Emily is currently located near 15.2°N, 62.0°W, and has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Thunderstorm activity has grown in size and intensity over the past 6 hours, and mid-level circulation is still elongated, but strong. The environment around Emily hasn't changed much from this morning. The moisture within the storm is still relatively high, although there continues to be a lingering dry, Saharan air mass to its north, which could become a factor in intensification. Wind shear is still high (30-40 knots) on the north side, as well.
Forecast For Emily
The official track forecast is that Emily will continue to travel west-northwest through the Caribbean and cross Hispaniola Wednesday morning, after which it turns slightly more to the north for a potential landfall along the Florida east coast as a hurricane. Models continue to be split between Emily entering the Gulf of Mexico or recurving before making landfall along the East Coast. In the camp of an eastern Gulf of Mexico track are the CMC, NOGAPS, and the UKMET models. The ECMWF has been trending that way, as well. The GFS continues to favor a northwest track towards Florida before taking a turn to the northeast. The HWRF has been forecasting an eastern coast of Florida solution, and continues to do so in the 12Z run. The GFDL remains conservative and forecasts that the system will turn north and northeast well before making any connection with the U.S. coast. It is notable that although there is still much disagreement on where this system will go, but the models have been trending west in their tracks over the past few days. As the official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center illustrates, this is a U.S. landfall threat.
The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Emily will probably strengthen into a hurricane. In the 12Z runs, the GFDL brings Emily up to category 2 strength, and HWRF forecasts it to max out at category 1. DSHIPS (the SHIPS model that takes into account land interaction) forecasts maximum intensity of a moderate tropical storm. General consensus continues to be that Emily will reach a peak intensity somewhere between a moderate tropical cyclone and a moderate category 1 hurricane. Now that Emily has developed, and when the models ingest some data from the Hurricane Hunter missions, we will have more certainty in an intensity forecast.
08-01-2011, 09:50 PM #3
08-01-2011, 09:59 PM #4
My kids are in Florida on vacation until next Sunday...I hope this thing putters out, but it doesn't look like it will, does it.
08-01-2011, 10:08 PM #5
Depends where in Florida they are...
I am East Coast and in a direct line for it unless it changes paths.
What I never understand is how they can figure with it so far away still that it will remain a Cat 2 or less. Even a Cat 2 should be taken seriously though. It can still do some major damage.
ETA: And it really does not matter what CAT it is the preparations are all the same, ugh.
Thinking on that again, no it's not. A CAT 3 or above and we evacuate equipment trailers and the 30'camper, valuables, tools so we have them when we return etc...
We went through Frances and Jeanne. Almost 3 wks w/no power, it was on again for a couple days and we started all over again with the second hurricane and no power again for days. Horrible. My roof almost came off. They replaced 21 sheets of base plywood up there. The nails that were supposed to be in the roof trusses were actually sitting next to the trusses where the roof lifted and came back down. All of the front rafters were actually twisted and had to be repaired. FEMA said a few more minutes of sustained winds and it would have been gone. There were 7 of us here then. It sounded like a roofer was up there with a nail gun during the storm but the reality was it was more nails popping. We quickly discovered that two bathrooms are not enough for 7 people, lol. Never again. CAT 3 or above and we get the heck out.
The beginning prep is the same though. Fuel all vehicles, water, food, more fuel for generator, make ice bottles, clean the yard, tie things down etc...
Last edited by dsntslp; 08-01-2011 at 10:40 PM.
08-01-2011, 10:40 PM #6
I'm trying to watch the hurricanes this year in the pacific, it's our first hurricane season here.
08-01-2011, 10:45 PM #7
I can't remember what CAT Wilma was when she hit here but she blew water in under the eaves and flooded one of the bedrooms. Iirc Wilma was a low CAT.
ETA: I was wrong! Wilma was a 5! It was not that bad here though. Not as bad as Frances and Jeanne.
Looking at the path Wilma took and she was not as bad for us as she came in from the W and had already hit the W coast of FL and come across before she got to us.
Last edited by dsntslp; 08-01-2011 at 11:00 PM.
08-01-2011, 11:14 PM #8
I remember how quick Charley shifted. 30-minute warning.
08-01-2011, 11:28 PM #9
All you Florida WS's stay safe!
08-01-2011, 11:34 PM #10
They have it turning more E now. I posted that a few mins ago but then was not sure so I removed it. Now it seems to be the consensus but as always with it 5 days out...it can change.
As long as it stays on the path it is on or heads E they will be fine in P-cola. They would have problems if it went W of FL though. IMO
08-01-2011, 11:49 PM #11
Strength is only supposed to get to a Cat 1. No real biggie there - except when Wilma hit here in 2005, she really tore this place up! And she was a 1 BUT she came from "behind" - came in from the West Coast.
It does look as though we are gonna take this one - somewhere from just north of WPB all the way to the Keys.
I'll be doing a survey of the yard tomorrow and Wed to see what needs to be lashed or taken in. Not all that worried about this one - yet. As many as I've been through in my life, this one isn't looking that nasty - yet. We'll see. Don't have a generator for this one - dern it. Probably won't need one anyway.
Either way - I would much rather live here and only worry about hurricanes - then live somehwere where tornados or earthquakes can happen without ANY warning. Little sotrm never hurt me.
I'm just an ole conch. Now where's that bottle of rum?
08-02-2011, 12:40 AM #12
The 5 day prediction is would you believe, making landing right on top of my head. My house is right where that darn dot on the map is. good grief, i don't need this mess.
08-02-2011, 12:49 AM #13
Beyond Belief I am TC too, if you need help, you find me, ok?
I have grown men here who will help batten down etc...
08-02-2011, 12:55 AM #14
Thank you so much, I think we'll be okay, this old house is like a fortress, lol.
08-02-2011, 01:11 AM #15
Hopefully this thing will stay out to sea and we won't all of a sudden have water front property. I already am supplied, got all the junk in and bushes cut. BUT, the pool doesn't have any water in it so i better fill it up or it will out there on I95.
This area can be a real trip after the storms, I saw a trampoline that must have blown a 1/2 mile and all the port o lets they set up after one storm were blown close to a mile down the road from the shopping center after the next storm, that was frances and jean. I wish I had taken a picture of that. Ha!
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