**Bumping Updated timeline with couple new times/events**Timeline of 11/17/2011
In those earlier morning hours Nate stated he had to go into work late that day so he and Michelle had coffee together and they talked about their day.
**tho NM says the two stayed in contact throughout the day, however their having coffee together was the last time that he'd see Michelle**
9:21am Michelle sent her sister Lauren a text message that stated:
**time and text both verified by video of sister, Lauren's phone showing the texts she exchanged with Michelle that morning**"Keratin today?"
[MSM, sister, Lauren]
9:42am Sister, Lauren sends a reply text message stating:
9:42am Michelle's immediate reply message stated:"I have an opening at 11:30 or after 5."
immediately after 9:42am Lauren's reply text message stated:*"11:30 works if it is ok"
immediately after Michelle sent her sister, Lauren 2 text messages back to back.. First text stated:"Yes your hair is short so it won't take long."
and the one that immediately followed stated:"Sweet!!! !!!!"
10:20am is the last text shown between sisters. It was sent from Michelle to Lauren and it stated:" "(5 red heart icons in a row)
**note we have no way for certain to know what she was referencing In this last msg.. It was not sent in reply to a text from Lauren and was sent a little over 40mins after Michelle's last text which was the 5 hearts..**"Ok, going <insert "shoe" icons> shopping with mom. I'll come by n grab it & do it"
**time and text verified by Lauren's cell phone**
11:30am this was the time that the sisters had agreed upon for Michelle to be at the salon for her to get her keratin conditioning treatment..
2:30pm Michelle is seen for the last time by her family(mom/sis) as she is leaving the family's salon en route to p/u twins from daycare and to drop them off at their dad's(Dale) condo
3:15pm Michelle's current bf of a few weeks, NM receives a text msg from Michelle that said she'd heard a song on the radio that made her think of him.
(per some MSM this text was sent "after" she'd dropped off the twins at Dale's.. To each their own on what they feel is accurate)..
NM immediately replies to her text with a smiley and a heart.
3:18pm ORIGINAL ARRIVAL TIME OF MICHELLE AT DALE's. Surveillance video shows Michelle's blk Hummer(sister, Lauren confirmed it was Michelle's Hummer)arriving at Dale's condo. The 3:18pm timestamp has been verified as correct(only "off" 2seconds) by the very man whose surveillance cam caught the Hummer footage.
**also note that 3:18pm marks the BEGINNING of the 72min window of op later given by Dale JR's ATTY, NeJame**
[MSM, video confirmation, sister, MN]
3:28pm This would mark the 10mins of Michelle staying and talking with Dale at his condo where she says she is then headed to go shopping.. The time Michelle would be leaving Dale's condo.
3:30pm This is the time reported by multiple MSM as the time Michelle's 11yr old son had arrived home from school and at some point very soon thereafter called the family salon asking if his mom was there.
4:00pm THIS IS THE NEW ARRIVAL TIME OF MICHELLE AT DALE's CONDO per sister, Lauren on 11/30 PrimeTime News. She claims that the time on the video of 3:18pm is INCORRECT.. that the correct time of Michelle/twins arriving at Dale's was 4:00pm.. Lauren further claims that in Dale's initial convo with the family on 11/17 when they asked him when he'd last seen Michelle that he answered that she'd arrived at 4:00pm, stayed and talked for 10mins, and upon her leaving she told Dale she was headed "shopping".
**please note that I am making clear that this time and info is not told to the public by Dale Jr, himself, but rather it is Michelle's sister, Lauren publicly stating these are the events/times of 11/17 as the family was told by Dale Jr in their first contacting him on the night of 11/17**
Minutes preceding 4:26pm Michelle's brother, Dustin sends a 3 recipient text(mom, Lauren, Michelle) needing a ride and asking what part of town each are in.
4:26pm the time immediately after Dustin sending the text he received only 1 reply from the 3 texts he'd sent. It was a reply from Michelle's cell phone that consisted of one, single word, "Waterford". This is the last known contact with Michelle's phone.
*note that according to MSM not only was the location of the phone not in Waterford when the 4:26pm text was sent, but it's reported that the phones records show the phone to not have been in Waterford at any time that day/night of 11/17**
4:26:16pm *Or 16:25:16 as seen as the timestamp on lower left. Screen cap shows the white panel van (that the neighbor said is not Dale Smith's, but which cannot be determined for certain by me-per Tony Pipitone) pulls into camera range before apparently doing a u-turn and parking in front of the building 15 seconds later.[much thanks to Tony Pipitone for this info]
**also of interest is that we see the neighbor with the cams is home by this point..IOW tightening the time in which the Hummer left/was concealed from Dale's condo**
4:30pm Dale's atty, Mark NeJame states that Dale and the twins arrived at his father, Dale Sr's home at this time. Thus marking the END of the 72minute window of opportunity that NeJame claims Dale Jr had to kill and dispose of Michelle..
**note that he gets a :big eyeroll: from me on this claim**
4:40pm This is the timestamp we see on the video surveillance footage that shows a similar black hummer leaving Dale's neighborhood.
**confirmed it was NOT Michelle's Hummer and confirmed it was a neighbor that lives near Dale that we saw appearing to leave the neighborhood at 4:40pm**
[video confirmation, MSM]
5:17pm Or as is seen on the video timestamp 17:17=5:17pm.. This is another screen capture of footage from Dale Jr's neighbor's surveillance cam.. It is still up for debate exactly what is seen in this particular screen cap, but for certain we know the white van is present.. Alongside the white van and slightly further there is a dark colored SUV headed in the opposite direction of where Michelle's Hummer is seen headed at 3:18pm(ie. Away from Jr's condo).. We have no confirmation on whose vehicle it is, or even what type SUV that it is for certain.. For now there are varying differences in opinion and whether or not it is even related or relevant to Michelle's disappearance.
[MSM, video confirmation]
5:31pm This is the official time that the sun set in Orlando, it's suburbs and surrounding areas.
6:50pm This time is the newest time stated by sister, Lauren as to when Michelle's 11yr old son called the family salon speaking with his Aunt Lauren. He asks if mom is there.. and relays that mom has not been home and he has not seen her.
6:50pm After speaking with Michelle's 11yr old son the family immediately calls "The Barn"(the bar Michelle was to work a shift at 7:30pm that night of 11/17). The co-workers assure the fam that they'll alert them as soon as Michelle arrives for work..*
**Michelle is known to be a very prompt employee and always would arrive 10-15mins prior to her shift beginning**
6:53pm Sister, Lauren sends a text to Michelle's phone saying for Michelle to call her ASAP..
7:20pm When Michelle had not arrived for work by 7:20 co-workers grew extremely concerned and immediately alerted her family that Michelle was a NO SHOW.
7:20pm AT THIS TIME THE FAMILY IMMEDIATELY ALERTED AUTHORITIES THAT MICHELLE WAS MISSING
Throughout those first hours Michelle's family were desperately seeking to make contact with Dale Jr.(calls placed to his cell by mom, Dustin, Lauren all went unanswered). Yvonne at some point was able to make contact with Dale Jr's mom at Dale Sr's house.. She shared her growing concerns of Michelle being missing but for reasons unbeknownst to us Yvonne was unable to speak with Dale Jr at that time. His mom assured Yvonne that she would have Dale Jr contact her.
7:30pm Michelle's shift was to begin at 7:30pm at "The Barn". As we know she never arrived.
8:00pm-ish Its been reported that after the family had contacted authorities to report Michelle missing that the family requested LE to go to Dale Jr's(*assume that's due to the last place they knew Michelle was headed to take the twins*).. Reportedly it was at/around 8pm LE did a "drive-by" of Dale Jr's condo and there was no sign of Michelle or her Hummer.
8:00pm This is the time that Michelle's phone was powered down for the last time in the Oakridge area.(have also seen this time reported as 8:01 and 8:08pm but am going by the timeline released 12/5 on Today Show)
**due to this being the last known area of Michelle's phone the family set up the original search central at Jesse Black's parking lot**
Specific time unknown Dale Jr returns the phonecall to Yvonne. The family asks him when was the last time that he saw Michelle. His response was that Michelle/twins arrived at his condo at 4:00pm, Michelle stayed and they talked for 10mins, upon Michelle leaving his condo she told him that she was headed to go "shopping". That was the last time that he had seen Michelle.
According to the family Dale had no reaction when told that Michelle was MISSING!
10:30pm This is the time that a woman and her dog were walking in the apt complex on Walden Circle and saw Michelle's black Hummer parked there at the complex.
**note this was learned after LE located the Hummer and in speaking to the apt tenants in that area they learned that the woman had spotted the vehicle in that spot at 10:30pm**
11:08pm This was the time that Dale Jr took to his facebook to speak out about Michelle MISSING and that he and his home were already being looked into by LE(as is SOP). Below is his IMO troubling post(he refuses to call her by name, but rather de-personalizes her by speaking of her as "his kid's mother")
[MSM, Dale's FB post]"Oh man, oh man, (expletive)! Michelle, the mother of my kids is missing, her mother called me said she never showed up to work after dropping the kids off with me. The police just came by and searched my whole house, this isn't good. My kids need their mother,"
12:00am-ish LE officer during routine patrol of the apt complex spots and calls in for verification what was found to be Michelle's Missing Black Hummer. It's location verified to have been the exact same as when the female at 10:30pm had spotted the black Hummer.
**note that the large, professionally attached GLOW tanning decals had been removed from Michelle's windows**
(it can be seen on the surveillance footage of Michelle's Hummer arriving at Dale's condo that at that time[3:18pm] the GLOW decals were still on her vehicle)
[family, MSM, LE]
LE may not have what they need to make an arrest yet, or enough to remove the children...that does not mean they do not have evidence regarding Michelle that conflicts with whatever DS told LE.
In a case without a body, yes, someone may be charged eventually, but it takes much, much longer before LE will do so (unless perhaps there is an obvious crime scene.) Passage of time is one of the elements of proof that the person is dead, not just off on a jaunt to warmer climes, for example. LE not charging DS now does not mean they do not have some evidence against him, nor does it mean they won't charge him later even if Michelle is not found.
Just my opinion, of course.
Posts on family's official faceook page today for reference: *I noticed some wording to be a tab bit telling about their thoughts.
"Now going into week 5..
Police are still in full force doing everything they can. There is a lot of information to be gone through. Searches are still happening as well. None of this will stop till she's found"
"All of the "have they done this" questions have been done. The police are very meticulous. As for why the video dosent show the vehicle leaving, the road loops around its not a dead end. When the hummer left it wouldn't have gone the same way it came in."
Notice the wording "when the hummer left" as opposed to "when Michelle left". I know it may mean nothing as all. Just an observation of mine.
This is just my opinion, but probable cause for the search warrant at DS Sr's house was pretty easy to prove. DS II was at his parents house immediately after seeing Michelle and tips were provided regarding DS Sr taking his boat out the next day, so probable cause was likely very easy to document in order to get a search warrant.
The same thing could be said about the search warrants that were served on DS II. Easy to get them, but what evidence has turned up as a result of those warrants?
Naming DS II as a suspect was a tactic, as admitted by law enforcement. I don't think that naming him is any reflection on the evidence that they have available to them. I am sure that there are pieces of evidence that they are still waiting for results on and hopefully, that will yield the evidence that they need. If it doesn't, then what?
Excellent, detailed timeline Mr. Noatak!! Thanks for taking the time to post it.. I agree with your choice in leaving out some of what are irrelevant factors IMO such as the 3:15 daycare p/up and the 4:00pm arrival time of MIchelle at Dales.. I think most fully realize the family's motive in having Lauren get on PrimeTime news and make the odd/incorrect statements regarding this 4pm arrival at Dale's condo.. I believe that tho, it initially caused some people confusion as to why the fam was making this obvious false statement but at the same time I'm 100% certain it's purpose was absolutely served to those intended.. Mainly Dale Jr(and by proxy NeJame who IMO immediately picked up on what the fam's motive was).. They let Dale and the entire world know that in order for his "story" of what occurred that day of 11/17 that he personally told the family, for it to be true then the time was wrong on the surveillance(which everyone knows it is the correct time and was only off by 2 seconds).. Jr and NeJame immediately knew the intent of the strange statement.. But I was pleased for those who it confused that a week later Lauren on NG explained it clearly what was meant by her strange statement concerning her sister's arrival time at Dale's..
So, I agree completely that they are irrelevant factors and do nothing to progress the actual timeline of events..
Again thanks for posting as I always enjoy your posts in any of the cases here at WS
As for the event of Michelle meeting Nate for that quick bite to eat before going into work at 7:30pm(actually arriving at work 7:10-7:15 as was her habit in always being 15-20mins early before her shift began).. And questioning why isn't it on the timeline??
There are a couple reasons why it's not included.. For one there was never ever given any specifics whatsoever about this quick bite to eat(ie. no time or place ever given) so while it could have been added as just a general entry with no specifics.. But on top of there being no detail to account in the timeline entry but it was something that never even actually occurred at all, nor did it's not occurring set off any events as result.. That's the reason why I personally did not find it in any relevant to the time line.. If even but one of those aspects were different or more info/detail known of it that would affect the outcome it would have definitely been listed..
For example the meeting of Nate and Michelle that morning for coffee.. Tho we have no actual time or place to plug these details into on the timeline.. However it is an event that we do know DID IN FACT OCCUR, thus that alone makes it worthy of being included in the timeline.. It also marks the last time that Nate was to have seen Michelle.. So while it may not appear relevant or important to some it does however have enough "meat" to it to be worthy of documenting it on the timeline..
The same is true for why the 7:30 time is listed on the timeline as marking when the beginning of Michelle's shift was to have begun.. So, here to it's similar to the bite to eat with Nate due to the fact that we know this event never occurred, either.. It's major difference is not only do we have a specific and exact time amd place to plug into the timeline BUT MOST IMPORTANTLY(and most differing from the bite to eat) IS THE FACT THAT DUE TO THIS EVENT NOT OCCURRING(her not arriving at work) IT DID SET OFF A MAJOR CHAIN OF EVENTS INCLUDING MICHELLE BEING REPORTED MISSING TO AUTHORITIES.. that IMO definitely making it worthy of being included in the timeline..
Anyway HTH explain a little better as to why and how the events/times documented in timeline form were formulated
And as always if anyone has time/event that they feel needs to be documented and added to our timeline please lemme know so I can edit it in and add it.. The best timelines are the one's that are done as collaborative effort rather than one, teeny brain working alone
I know we have had several post that this is not warranted just because someone has a CWL.. And I can personally say I've asked two separate family members(one LE officer and other FBI) and both stated there was nothing standard about a judge issuing this type "hard entry" and that it definitely is NOT USED just because the homeowner/occupant has firearms or CWL..
I truly am still baffled by the amount of force that was used and in hearing from family who eat, sleep, live, and breath everything about the ends and outs of enforcing the law from their many years of experience.. I am just really curious as to what is at play here specifically concerning Dale Sr that we of course are not(and should not at this time) be privy to???
What is your opinion on what could possibly warrant such a NON-SOP with an extremely hard entry upon executing the warrant on Dale Sr.'s house??
I am just wondering why a person who participated in the ACTUAL murder of another human being (Dale Smith being part of the group that killed a person)...gets so MUCH benefit of the doubt by so many posters....He helped murder someone. And his record since then shows zero rehabilitation. Why all of the support?
Because there is no arrest? He is a convicted felon who participates in hot body contests in his late 30's. His family watched the twins more than he did. Can anyone explain to me, WHY, there is so much resistence to naming him a prime suspect. Last person (KNOWN) seen with a missing endangered person and he has a violent criminal history. I guess I should start sleuthing Sesame Street characters...as perps...just to be sure.
No matter how you slice it...Dale Smith is not a good person. But I don't have anyone in my life that I need to justify defending that has such a record.
Either way, if they had any reason to believe that violence would break out during the process of searching, then they were justified in using the hard entry. I do believe that they thought that violence, or a rush to destroy evidence would occur upon their arrival. I don't question their approach, even if I was initially surprised by the ferocity of it. I am sure that having minor children involved was even more concerning in this situation.
Michelle told her sister, at 2:30, that she intended to come home and nap after she left Dale's. She still had a full night's work ahead of her. So I don't think she would have gone to visit somebody at that time.
And there was no evidence of a tanning apt. on her phone or calender.
But IF she did decide to make a stop there, then I think she would have called her 11 yr old, who was home alone. It would have only taken a second of her time.
And, if she did decide to make a stop there, then I think there would have been evidence of that on her cell phone logs. I don't think she would have gone to that complex and parked so far away, without calling or texting someone about her imminent visit there.
Also, I am not sure about this yet, but I do not believe that her phone's ping map fits with her going to that complex in the afternoon. Does anyone know?
“Every day that they don’t find something is good for me.“ Billie Dunn
I am wondering if the neighbor's video camera captured way more than we are privey too. Lots of us think Dale took the kids to Sr's and then returned to get rid of the hummer and Michelle. If that took place he had 1 hour and 22 minutes to do it and his comings and goings would be on video.
3:18 she arrives
4:40 a hummer is seen leaving, (for sake of argument let's say it was her's)
It would only take about 1 hour round trip to drive to Sr's home and back to the condo, so that leaves 22 minutes to remove a decale and put a person in the hummer and leave. He would also be seen on the video leaving and coming back and leaving again in the hummer. I am assuming here he used his truck to take the kids to his dad"s in this theory. This is a tight schedule, no? We also have to add in the 4:26 text 'Waterford".
The phone powered down at 8:01 but I feel it was throw long before that time and the water at some point killed the phone. But I don't know that for sure. It could have been pinging other places, but the log is not released so IDK.
I am trying to get an idea of where I would think to put her body given time restraints and where other things were found. I feel like the body would be the first thing I got rid of, just because of being in a panic. I don't think she is in water, only because you have to get close and out more in the open and you have to weight it down. It is a risk. There are lots of wooded areas all along that route he would have taken and you can pulll over in the dark and walk into the woods and leave it. No one around. Just feeling stuff out.
Your Dream must be greater than your fear!
Basically are we talking gated Townhomes where Dale lives or Walden Circle apt complex where Hummer was abandoned??
TIA for helping this confused gal out..
I could poke as many holes in this theory as any of the others, but this one would make more sense for me over contemplating a total stranger attacking her.
I still think that DS II is the most likely suspect, but if no evidence turns up that leads directly to him, this is a theory that might at least make sense.
If DS II killed Michelle shortly after she arrived at his condo, he could've put a video in for the twins to keep them occupied. He wraps her body in plastic or something else, loads it into the Hummer and drives it out of the complex. There are large parking lots within easy walking distance to his condo. All he had to do was park the Hummer in a spot where it wouldn't draw any attention and then walk back to the condo.
He packs up the twins and drives over to DS Sr's house in his truck. If he left there at some point, he could've gone and gotten the Hummer and then left to dump it. Along the way he could've stopped to leave Michelle somewhere. It looks like there are a lot of wooded areas around his condo, closer to the stores. I think that Michelle, the Hummer and the phone were all taken care of at the same time. So, I am thinking that it was around or by 8pm.
Sorry for the confusion. I know what you mean about multitasking. I am trying to bake christmas treats,and wrap presents, and watch football, and read here at WS.
I was replying to someone's scenario, that she might have gone to Walden Circle herself after leaving Dale's, and then someone kidnaps her there.
“Every day that they don’t find something is good for me.“ Billie Dunn
Hey wasn't there actually a hearing/court date regarding drug charges/convictions and Dale Sr as recently as since Michelle's having gone missing?? I swear that I have read that reported maybe a week or so ago and I thought WTH??..
I, too was going to bring this up(as Analyze mentioned as well) earlier but I didn't have a clue where I'd read that report information and already multi-multi-tasking as we speak.. Well.. A search to attempt to locate the info just wasn't doable at the time so, therefor I skipped even broaching the subject as I had nothing to back it..
Another thanks to Kelly for her having brought up this subject it seems several of us were thinking of.. So, back to the drugs their charges and any convictions and Dale Sr.. Kelly, do you by any chance have a link to where the charges/convictions are listed and what they consist of?? Tia if you do
And am I the only one that recalls that there has been recent court activity regarding Sr and drug charges and/or convictions??? I know, I know, I just know that I read that within the last 7-10days.. I just know it.. But until I'm able to prove it I am stating NOTHING AS FACT, PERIOD!
Again thanks Kelly for bringing this up!!!
ETA: I see I'm slow and you've long since beat me to the punch and provided a link.. Thank you!!
OT To factfinder: Is either Dale or his father an informant (or both) for the police? Stuff I have collected makes me wonder.
IIRC, someone who was brand new at WS came here and posted a copy of a document that they said they found on the local court website, I believe. And it showed that Dale Sr had been busted last summer for distribution of pot, but it was only just now being entered as an arrest. But nobody could verify the document because it went poof. So it was all very strange, odd, weird.
“Every day that they don’t find something is good for me.“ Billie Dunn