I am a little late to the retrial and did some catching up over the weekend focusing on the major pieces to the case. There seems to be some confusion regarding one of the key pieces of physical evidence: the size 12 Hush Puppies (HP) print.
FACT: Only 197 HP Orbital brown leather size 12 shoes were made by HP.
FACT: this shoe had the outsole which could have made that print.
FACT: JY (evidenced by DSW records) bought a pair in 2005.
NOT A FACT: only 197 shoes could have made that print.
Many of you may understand the rest of what I am going to post, the intention is to inform those who do not.
The outsole (shoe bottom) which made that print was used for 2 production line HP shoe models in 2003 and 2004: the Bellville (a lace-up), and Sealy (slip-on). The outsole was also used for a boot-type shoe (I think it was the Bridgeport).
Hush Puppies sold 19,000,000 (nineteen million) pairs of shoes in 2006. I do not have figures for 2003-2004 when the Bellville and Sealys were in the main product line, but assuming a steady increase from those years (and not a decrease), lets say 15,000,000 in 2004 and 13,000,000 in 2003.
So the guesstimate is that HP sold [28,000,000] pairs of shoes in 2003 and 2004.
In 2003 and 2004 (thanks to wayback machine) I found that HP carried approximately 100 production shoe models per year (mens, womens, kids). 2 of those models were the Bellville and Sealy. So, [2%] or 2/100 shoe models had the outsole which could have made that print.
If every model sold equally (they most likely did not), then there would have been 560,000 Sealy/Bellville shoes sold in 2003 and 2004. I have no idea how well those models sold, but lets say for a conservative argument's sake they sold at a lower rate than other models, maybe even 50% less - so 280,000 outsoles which could have made that print, even on the assumption they were a low selling shoe.
More limiting questions: How many of those were size 12? (and 11 if the those sizes shared the same outsole) How many of those were sold in the U.S.?
I am not going to apply any more guess math, but will lend some general info:
Size 9-12 are the vast majority of shoes made for men.
HP does sell intenationally in several countries. I read that in Chile, 1 out of every 8 citizens owns a pair
. The U.S. is the largest footwear market in the world - about 40%.
I would feel confident suggesting that there were at least 25,000 shoes (perhaps as many as 60,000 if the shoe at least sold at a median rate with the rest of the production models) sold in the U.S. with an outsole which could have made that print.
note: this post is not a defense of JY or a suggestion someone else left that print, just my attempt to clear up a misconception.
ETA: is it any wonder the State did not have Riha prepared with the actual figures for Sealy/Bellville? He was asked by Def. and replied he didn;t know.