State vs Jason Lynn Young 2-27-12

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ynotdivein

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State vs. Jason Lynn Young

Thread for Monday, Feb. 28, 2012


Live links:

http://www.wral.com/news/video/10690077/#/vid10690077

http://abclocal.go.com/wtvd/index

pic_breakfast_1.jpg

http://www.docksidegq.com/images/pic_breakfast_1.jpg
 
bumping up (thanks to ynot for the new thread!)

everyone play nice today and remember TOS... ;-)
 
Good morning everyone.

Does anyone remember who the DT called first in the first trial?

TIA
 
Good morning everyone.

Does anyone remember who the DT called first in the first trial?

TIA

good morning Talina. :)

Last time it was Pat Young, followed by JY's stepfather, followed by his sister Heather and then her husband, JY's brother-in-law. I wonder if it will follow the same this time.
 
I believe it starts at 11 this morning. I have a business meeting so I will miss this morning. Thank goodness for having the testimony to watch later. Have a good day, everyone.
 
I made it! Looks like I'll be holed up in my hotel room for the day. I'm looking forward to the prosecution resting its case and hearing why the defense asks for a motion for directed acquittal.

I'll hit the casino during lunch.
 
I made it! Looks like I'll be holed up in my hotel room for the day. I'm looking forward to the prosecution resting its case and hearing why the defense asks for a motion for directed acquittal.

I'll hit the casino during lunch.

BBM

That already happened on Friday.

Today we start off with the defense calling their first witness.

:)
 
Looking forward to a week of new evidence, and figuring out where the defense is going with their case.

I have to say, after reading and participating in the weekend thread, I do hope that the jurors are as passionate about justice, and as analytical with the evidence as the posters on this site. They have a tough job ahead of them, and I do not envy their position. Whatever their verdict may be, I hope they will share with the public the basis of their decision.
 
I am a little late to the retrial and did some catching up over the weekend focusing on the major pieces to the case. There seems to be some confusion regarding one of the key pieces of physical evidence: the size 12 Hush Puppies (HP) print.

FACT: Only 197 HP Orbital brown leather size 12 shoes were made by HP.
FACT: this shoe had the outsole which could have made that print.
FACT: JY (evidenced by DSW records) bought a pair in 2005.

NOT A FACT: only 197 shoes could have made that print.

Many of you may understand the rest of what I am going to post, the intention is to inform those who do not.

The outsole (shoe bottom) which made that print was used for 2 production line HP shoe models in 2003 and 2004: the Bellville (a lace-up), and Sealy (slip-on). The outsole was also used for a boot-type shoe (I think it was the Bridgeport).

Hush Puppies sold 19,000,000 (nineteen million) pairs of shoes in 2006. I do not have figures for 2003-2004 when the Bellville and Sealys were in the main product line, but assuming a steady increase from those years (and not a decrease), lets say 15,000,000 in 2004 and 13,000,000 in 2003.

So the guesstimate is that HP sold [28,000,000] pairs of shoes in 2003 and 2004.

In 2003 and 2004 (thanks to wayback machine) I found that HP carried approximately 100 production shoe models per year (mens, womens, kids). 2 of those models were the Bellville and Sealy. So, [2%] or 2/100 shoe models had the outsole which could have made that print.

If every model sold equally (they most likely did not), then there would have been 560,000 Sealy/Bellville shoes sold in 2003 and 2004. I have no idea how well those models sold, but lets say for a conservative argument's sake they sold at a lower rate than other models, maybe even 50% less - so 280,000 outsoles which could have made that print, even on the assumption they were a low selling shoe.

More limiting questions: How many of those were size 12? (and 11 if the those sizes shared the same outsole) How many of those were sold in the U.S.?

I am not going to apply any more guess math, but will lend some general info:

Size 9-12 are the vast majority of shoes made for men.

HP does sell intenationally in several countries. I read that in Chile, 1 out of every 8 citizens owns a pair ;). The U.S. is the largest footwear market in the world - about 40%.

I would feel confident suggesting that there were at least 25,000 shoes (perhaps as many as 60,000 if the shoe at least sold at a median rate with the rest of the production models) sold in the U.S. with an outsole which could have made that print.

note: this post is not a defense of JY or a suggestion someone else left that print, just my attempt to clear up a misconception.

ETA: is it any wonder the State did not have Riha prepared with the actual figures for Sealy/Bellville? He was asked by Def. and replied he didn;t know.
 
The more I think about the defense strategy, the more I think they should start with JY. Get him out in the open, and use their other witnesses to bolster his stories. That way, if things go sour, they don't end with him. And end with Cindy Beaver and anything to bolster her. But I don't think they'll do that, just what I think they *should* do!
 
I am a little late to the retrial and did some catching up over the weekend focusing on the major pieces to the case. There seems to be some confusion regarding one of the key pieces of physical evidence: the size 12 Hush Puppies (HP) print.

snipped for space.

While we have no idea if any of those numbers (other than the number of Orbitals testified to in this trial) to be accurate or not - an in some instances you, yourself, state you are making assumptions, here's where I venture off in a different direction.

The HP rep said the other models of shoes that had this sole were not sold by DSW. He said HP shoes were not sold by major stores in Raleigh. He said HP shoes were sold by a couple of boutique stores but didn't know if they sold those two shoes or not when they were being marketed. They did not sell the Orbital. It was only sold by DSW.

Based on that, I think that severely narrows down the opportunity that very many of these particular shoes (Orbitals or the original style that had this sole style) made their way into the mens closets in Raleigh, NC.

For sure, in my mind, it is far, far below the number estimated in your post.

IMO
 
Wow. Thank you for this. Very helpful. Wonder if the defense will call someone to the stand with this same information. You should share it with the defense team.

I am a little late to the retrial and did some catching up over the weekend focusing on the major pieces to the case. There seems to be some confusion regarding one of the key pieces of physical evidence: the size 12 Hush Puppies (HP) print.

FACT: Only 197 HP Orbital brown leather size 12 shoes were made by HP.
FACT: this shoe had the outsole which could have made that print.
FACT: JY (evidenced by DSW records) bought a pair in 2005.

NOT A FACT: only 197 shoes could have made that print.

Many of you may understand the rest of what I am going to post, the intention is to inform those who do not.

The outsole (shoe bottom) which made that print was used for 2 production line HP shoe models in 2003 and 2004: the Bellville (a lace-up), and Sealy (slip-on). The outsole was also used for a boot-type shoe (I think it was the Bridgeport).

Hush Puppies sold 19,000,000 (nineteen million) pairs of shoes in 2006. I do not have figures for 2003-2004 when the Bellville and Sealys were in the main product line, but assuming a steady increase from those years (and not a decrease), lets say 15,000,000 in 2004 and 13,000,000 in 2003.

So the guesstimate is that HP sold [28,000,000] pairs of shoes in 2003 and 2004.

In 2003 and 2004 (thanks to wayback machine) I found that HP carried approximately 100 production shoe models per year (mens, womens, kids). 2 of those models were the Bellville and Sealy. So, [2%] or 2/100 shoe models had the outsole which could have made that print.

If every model sold equally (they most likely did not), then there would have been 560,000 Sealy/Bellville shoes sold in 2003 and 2004. I have no idea how well those models sold, but lets say for a conservative argument's sake they sold at a lower rate than other models, maybe even 50% less - so 280,000 outsoles which could have made that print, even on the assumption they were a low selling shoe.

More limiting questions: How many of those were size 12? (and 11 if the those sizes shared the same outsole) How many of those were sold in the U.S.?

I am not going to apply any more guess math, but will lend some general info:

Size 9-12 are the vast majority of shoes made for men.

HP does sell intenationally in several countries. I read that in Chile, 1 out of every 8 citizens owns a pair ;). The U.S. is the largest footwear market in the world - about 40%.

I would feel confident suggesting that there were at least 25,000 shoes (perhaps as many as 60,000 if the shoe at least sold at a median rate with the rest of the production models) sold in the U.S. with an outsole which could have made that print.

note: this post is not a defense of JY or a suggestion someone else left that print, just my attempt to clear up a misconception.

ETA: is it any wonder the State did not have Riha prepared with the actual figures for Sealy/Bellville? He was asked by Def. and replied he didn;t know.
 
Glad you clarified the fact more then 197 pairs of shoes could have made this print. Lots of mis information on this.
 
Wow. You did some homework. However, you're just guessing. We don't know the actual numbers, but I'm guessing your numbers are much too high. I'm going to assume that because the seely and bellville were discontinued, they didn't sell well. Because the boot only lasted one season, I'm assuming it doesn't sell well either. The orbitals were made for and sold to DSW and only 195 size 12's were sold - again, not a shoe in high demand. The bellville and seelys were older shoes and more likely to have lost many pairs to wear and tear as well.

All that matters at this point is what the jurors believe.

I am a little late to the retrial and did some catching up over the weekend focusing on the major pieces to the case. There seems to be some confusion regarding one of the key pieces of physical evidence: the size 12 Hush Puppies (HP) print.

FACT: Only 197 HP Orbital brown leather size 12 shoes were made by HP.
FACT: this shoe had the outsole which could have made that print.
FACT: JY (evidenced by DSW records) bought a pair in 2005.

NOT A FACT: only 197 shoes could have made that print.

Many of you may understand the rest of what I am going to post, the intention is to inform those who do not.

The outsole (shoe bottom) which made that print was used for 2 production line HP shoe models in 2003 and 2004: the Bellville (a lace-up), and Sealy (slip-on). The outsole was also used for a boot-type shoe (I think it was the Bridgeport).

Hush Puppies sold 19,000,000 (nineteen million) pairs of shoes in 2006. I do not have figures for 2003-2004 when the Bellville and Sealys were in the main product line, but assuming a steady increase from those years (and not a decrease), lets say 15,000,000 in 2004 and 13,000,000 in 2003.

So the guesstimate is that HP sold [28,000,000] pairs of shoes in 2003 and 2004.

In 2003 and 2004 (thanks to wayback machine) I found that HP carried approximately 100 production shoe models per year (mens, womens, kids). 2 of those models were the Bellville and Sealy. So, [2%] or 2/100 shoe models had the outsole which could have made that print.

If every model sold equally (they most likely did not), then there would have been 560,000 Sealy/Bellville shoes sold in 2003 and 2004. I have no idea how well those models sold, but lets say for a conservative argument's sake they sold at a lower rate than other models, maybe even 50% less - so 280,000 outsoles which could have made that print, even on the assumption they were a low selling shoe.

More limiting questions: How many of those were size 12? (and 11 if the those sizes shared the same outsole) How many of those were sold in the U.S.?

I am not going to apply any more guess math, but will lend some general info:

Size 9-12 are the vast majority of shoes made for men.

HP does sell intenationally in several countries. I read that in Chile, 1 out of every 8 citizens owns a pair ;). The U.S. is the largest footwear market in the world - about 40%.

I would feel confident suggesting that there were at least 25,000 shoes (perhaps as many as 60,000 if the shoe at least sold at a median rate with the rest of the production models) sold in the U.S. with an outsole which could have made that print.

note: this post is not a defense of JY or a suggestion someone else left that print, just my attempt to clear up a misconception.

ETA: is it any wonder the State did not have Riha prepared with the actual figures for Sealy/Bellville? He was asked by Def. and replied he didn;t know.
 
He said HP shoes were not sold by major stores in Raleigh. ....I think that severely narrows down the opportunity that very many of these particular shoes (Orbitals or the original style that had this sole style) made their way into the mens closets in Raleigh, NC.

You are assuming that the shoes which made the print had to have both been originally purchased in Raleigh, and resided in a closet in Raleigh. People move, people buy things while traveling, people order shoes online...

The point is the pool of shoes affixed with the outsole that could have made that print is much, much larger than 197.
 
Glad you clarified the fact more then 197 pairs of shoes could have made this print. Lots of mis information on this.

I don't think anyone has disputed that 197 pairs of Orbitals or possibly the other shoes using that sole prior to their being discontinued when the Orbital began being produced COULD have made those prints.

I think what people have been stating, and rightfully so, IMO, is that it is far fewer than that number that made their way onto the shelves in the stores in Raleigh, NC.

These numbers being talked about are total numbers being produced, not total numbers of shoes sent to and sold within the Raleigh, NC market.

I don't see it being misrepresented. I see it being discussed and parsed as to whether or not this is a widely used sole put on HP shoes. In my mind, it is not and then to further dilute the possibilities of how many made it onto mens feet in Raleigh, it was not widely sold in multiple stores in Raleigh, thereby further limiting how many were sold in that market.

IMO
 
Wow. You did some homework. However, you're just guessing. We don't know the actual numbers, but I'm guessing your numbers are much too high.

Yep, I am guessing at some percentages - but note that I used conservative numbers. My guesses could be much lower than the actual figures. We do not have those figures because Mr. Riha was not prepared with them. Why? Wouldn't the State want to put that info out there as well? How hard could it have been for him to get those numbers?
 
You are assuming that the shoes which made the print had to have both been originally purchased in Raleigh, and resided in a closet in Raleigh. People move, people buy things while traveling, people order shoes online...

The point is the pool of shoes affixed with the outsole that could have made that print is much, much larger than 197.

Anything is possible. Possible and probable in this instance are a wide berth apart in my mind.

What I am assuming, though, is that it is not likely based on what we do know about these shoes not being all that common among the whole HP line of shoes. I think the likelihood of some stranger having the same size, same sole design just happens to wear those exact shoes into MY's bedroom that night and murder her causes my mind to stretch far beyond what is a reasonable possibility or likelihood.

IMO
 
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