One Killer or More?

Salem, I think there is only one killer since the Manorville victims also had parts left in the OB area. I just think the killer has evolved over time. My guess today would be carnival worker after reading Seaslugs thread about the it being the possible source of the burlap. My opinion changes daily, lol.

IF it turns out there are more than one killer, then my guess would be organized crime 'fixers'. Same organization...different 'fixers' as one may have moved up the totum pole and a new one was brought in.

MOO

wm
 
Could LE be saying there may be several killers to aggravate the SK? Don't they like to get credit for their handiwork?
 
Could LE be saying there may be several killers to aggravate the SK? Don't they like to get credit for their handiwork?

Yep. I'm sure Dormer is advised by BSU and basically has his statements scripted for press conferences. For all we know the sk probably has responded to the SCPD via mail and it just hasn't been revealed to the public.

What bothers me most is that SCPD swept these dismemberments under the rug for 14 years. I've had several well seasoned police officers (childhood friends of my older siblings) tell me that if you are prominent in society you get attention. Nobody cares about hookers and drug addicts. So as long as hookers and addicts are being murdered an dismembered...oh well. Had the daughter of a doctor, politician, nurse or a city worker been found in such a manner then that would be a whole 'nother animal. Well, I think they are going to be rattled enough when this sk decides to up the ante and graduate his victims from the dredges of society to middle and upper class. SCPD is gonna wish they would have morally investigated the issue concerning the very first victim found. It seems to me that the sk would love to make a fool out of them as the pressure builds from the community for his capture. This guy has been at this for at least 15 years and hasn't had any recognition for a full year yet. SCPD had better utilize the public more because old dude may go through another 15 years if he is ever captured.
 
Back in May, Spota indicated we could be looking at as many as 3 killers. ( link ) Now that we have more info wrt the victims, it seems quite possible. For starters, lets consider the various victims that were found. They would break out as follows:

The GB4 (Barthelemy, Waterman, Costello, & Brainard-Barnes)

These victims are connected by not only their trade & use of craigslist but also their murder (strangulation) and body disposition (stripped of clothing/jewelry & wrapped in burlap). For later reference, I'm going to refer to this guy as "The Bagger," since his disposal MO involves bagging his victims. There are questions wrt rate of decomp and some have felt he also skins his victims. While possible, it is, imo, doubtful, due to the amount of work required. I would say that, if we are looking at advanced decomp, then he may use a chemical, such as caustic soda or something of that nature. That this individual has taunted the families indicates a clearly sadistic angle... one that allows him to prolong the vicitimization beyond the murders. That he called Melissa's sister for several weeks leads me to wonder if he may be keeping his victims alive for some protracted period. If so, this would be congruent with his sadistic nature. While he may be keeping their clothes or jewelry as trophies, he could simply be discarding them to hinder identification.

Mannorville (Taylor & Jane Doe 6)

These victims are connected in that portions of their remains were found in Mannorville within a mile of each other, along Halsey-Manor Road in 2000 and 2003, respectively ( map ). The missing portions were found nearly a decade later along Ocean Parkway. Both victims had been decapitated, and some of their limbs and/or extremities removed. ( link ) In addition to the two women, two men were also found within the same time frame. Some believe these men were murdered by the same individual who murdered the two women. Though, based upon location and body disposition, I'm thinking, not. Either way, I did include them on the map since their murders remain unsolved. ( map ) The Manorville killer has been refered to as the Manorville Butcher. ( link ) Will keep that name for now. His MO is dismembering his victims. He also went to great, though, rather, crude lengths to remove identifying marks (i.e., trying to obliterate the tattoo). It is unclear when he dumped the Ocean Parkway remains.

Asian Male CD

This 17-23 year old victim was described as having been violently murdered between 2000-2005. ( link ) This murder could very well have been a "date" gone bad. The degree of violence, the fact that his clothes remained, etcetera, strongly points to that. In other words, this would be a random murder as opposed to one in a set of serial kills.

Jane Doe 9

The DNA from the skull found on the Nassau County section of Ocean Parkway matched that of legs that had washed ashore in 1996. ( link ) I am not inclined to think Manorville, or GB4, for that matter. In fact, this seems more like the Mamaroneck & Cold Spring Harbor murders. ( link ) Imo, the guy killing those women, while also dismembering them, used a boat to dispose of their remains.

Baby Doe & Jane Doe 10

The DNA of baby doe matched that of the west most remains found in the Nassau County section of Ocean Parkway. ( link ) Notably, the baby was wrapped in a blanket. ( link ) When a child is wrapped in a blanket, that generally indicates relative involvement... usually the mother. Since however, the other remains indicate a female relation, quite possibly the mother, the blanket is an anomally. The other anomally is that LE states that the child's death was not suspicious. In other words, they do not appear to believe she was murdered. ( link ) In this case, at best, we know that at least an adult female, likely the mother, and a toddler went missing. Does anyone know if Kibalo ( link ) has been ruled out?
 
My personal feeling is that Manorville and the GB4 are the work of different killers. I'm not convinced, however, that the GB4 are not related to the AC4.
 
I took a step back from this case for a few weeks in an attempt to return with a clear mind and a fresh set of eyes this morning. The very first thing that is obvious to me now is that there does not exist a single shred of evidence to support the single serial killer theory.

If you think that it is not possible for multiple, unrelated killers to use the same dumping grounds... well think again. This is more common than you may realize. A perfect local example is Pelham Bay Park. You can read here all about how multiple killers used that location as a dumping ground for years.

Another thing that was obvious to me is that there is absolutely no proof that the person or people who discarded the remains is the same person who killed them. We make this assumption because it is probably likely that the killer(s) would work alone yet we truly have no proof. Therefore, it has not been ruled-out that there may be multiple killers yet maybe only one or two "disposers".

So with my new fresh of eyes, I can tell you what I do see and what I do not see in regards to the actual victims.

Let's first start with the obvious;

KILLER #1 The Original GB4
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The burlap suggests that these four woman were most likely killed and dumped along Ocean Parkway by the same killer. It is impossible to determine whether or not the killer and the person who did the dumping are one in the same (since the woman were murdered elsewhere). Yet most people assume that it's all the work of one person. One thing is sure, other than the location of where the bodies were found, there is nothing about the GB4's cases that are at all similar to the other cases. They are extremely unique.

Now the next obvious...

KILLER #2 The Manorville Butcher
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It's safe to assume that JT is the victim of the same killer as Jane Doe #6. Both had remains found both in Manorville and in Gilgo. There were remains of two men found in the same set of woods in Manorville yet the police fail to mention those UID victims in relation to this case. This is most likely because Manorville is another known dumping ground that has been used by multiple killers throughout the years (like Gilgo & Pelham Bay Park). If you do not accept that Manorville is another one of those universal dumping grounds then how can you explain the lack of attention the two male victims received (and how they have not been linked to this case?). There is no indication that the two Manorville cases are in any way linked to any of the other cases.

Now this is where it starts to get complicated;

KILLER #3 Jane Doe Bag of Bones & her Non-Caucasian 16 to 32 month daughter
We know for sure that the Jane Doe bag of bones found just East of Zach's Bay along the dirt utility road is related to the non-Caucasian toddler found near Gilgo. What we do not know is 1) whether or not the toddler was murdered or if she dies of natural causes and 2) whether or not the person who killed the toddler's mother also killed the toddler. For all we know, the mother could have been responsible for the toddler's death (accidental or intentional) and the toddler's father could have killed the toddler's mother out of rage for what she had let happen. We may never know the answer to this mystery. Also, since they were able to determine that the toddler is non-Caucasian, why haven't the police released info on whether or not they were able to determine if the mother was non-Caucasian too? Is this just assumed? Nothing about this case shows any signs of being related to the others.

KILLER #4 Davis Park 1996 Legs with Scars Woman
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They found her legs in a plastic bag washed up on the beach at Davis Park on Fire Island in 1996. During the search near Jones Beach the Nassau County PD found her skull. It was there so long that it was reported that a small tree or a tree's roots was growing out of it. Where the heck is the rest of her remains? Unlike the other bodies, her skull was found far from the roadside in the middle of a nature preserve where many people go hiking. Her case is years apart from all of the others too. Nothing about her case shows any sign of being related to the others.

Killer #5 The Cross-Dressing Asian Man
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The only male victim. His cause of death was determined to be much different than any of the other victims (and described as "brutal"). His wearing woman's clothing makes everyone assume that he was a cross-dresser (was he the only victim who was clothed too??). His rotted missing teeth have added to everyone's imagination (some think he could have been a crack user). The truth is, we don't know what caused him to lose some of his teeth just like we do not know if he was wearing woman's clothing by choice or if his body was dressed that way by the killer before or after his death. Dormer went as far as to suggest that this man was most likely a gay prostitute. It's all speculation (and poor judgement in my opinion) to make these assumptions without a shred of evidence. Once again, we have a case with absolutely zero evidence that links him to any of the other cases.

Killer #6 if you do not buy the "drowning theory"
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I know it's tough to accept that there isn't a shred of evidence that links SG's case to any of the others. I also know that it's tough to accept the theory that SG drowned. If SG was indeed murdered, then most likely we have a local OB resident or her driver MP to blame. Either way, there is not a single piece of evidence to link SG's death to any of the others. So if SG was murdered, we then most likely have a sixth killer. Once again, not a single shred of evidence to link SG's death to the others.

All of this leaves us with more questions than answers;

Is Killer #1 through 5 all the same killer who has some how "evolved" over time and SG died accidentally as Dormer attempted to educate/enlighten us? (this is SCPD's last official theory)

Is Killer #2, 3 & 4 all the same killer who chose to dismember his victims?

Does that make it three killers by leaving Killer #1 & 5 as the same killer and #6 being the third?

Of course, all of this speculation is assuming that whoever dumped the bodies also killed them. If we make this assumption then we can conclude that there are no more than six killers. If we cannot make this assumption then there could be as many as eleven.

If there are six killers, then technically speaking we have actually two serial killers (Killer #1 & Killer #2) and both of them are targeting prostitutes. This plays back into my theory how this case is going to go cold again very quickly. The Manorville butcher case (killer #2) continues to be a cold case because nobody seems to care about the two victims to put any pressure on the investigators to solve the cases. The GB4 case will most likely follow in the same footsteps as the AC serial killer case where time just flies by with no new leads. Chances are that (like AC) the killer came to town, killed the four girls and moved on to another town where he probably is doing the same. With no more bodies showing up and no more prostitutes missing from the Long Island area the pressure is off of the investigators because the public doesn't feel threatened.

So with my clear fresh set of eyes, the only thing that is obvious when looking at this case is that there is absolutely no evidence to support the one serial killer theory. Yes, serial killers do evolve. And yes, there have been some remarkably talented serial killers who utilized multiple MO's in order to confuse law enforcement.

But until some evidence actually links two or more of the six killers, the investigators need to set the record straight and dismiss Dormer's one-shoe-fits-all fantasy theory. I've said this before and I'll say it again; other than identifying the identity of some of the victims, giving us composite drawings of what the UID victims might have look like and ruling out potential suspects like CPH, JB & MP, the investigators have made absolutely no progress in this case. They are no closer to finding the killers than they were when the legs washed up on Davis Park Beach or when they found parts of the Manorville victims.

ZERO PROGRESS.
 
I'm not buying the 1 killer theory. Every gut instinct I have tells me our guy either couldn't bring himself to decapitate, or doesn't care enough about these women to bother. Manorville is not LISK, imo.

As for the others...I could be persuaded to consider the Manorville killer for those, or someone else entirely.
 
I'm not buying the 1 killer theory. Every gut instinct I have tells me our guy either couldn't bring himself to decapitate, or doesn't care enough about these women to bother. Manorville is not LISK, imo.

As for the others...I could be persuaded to consider the Manorville killer for those, or someone else entirely.
Wondering if politics played a part in announcing the one killer theory. It is forgiveable to have a lone psycho on the loose. But having multiple killers out there suggests an environment that cultivates killers and allows them to operate with ease (and without fear of getting caught).

No comish wants for it to known that killers can operate so easily on his watch.
 
Sea slug - I love your assessment of the murders, well done. I have only on comment to make and that's about the Asian male victim. You stated that his murder was "brutal". With that being said, I can definitley see a cross dressing prostitute. If his teeth indicate crack use, then there's a good chance he was prostituting to support his habit. Even so, getting picked up as a woman and then finding out he's a man could cause (IMO) such a brutal attack. A lot of people would get freaked out and upset if it happened to them. So I find the idea put forth by others very plausible. Imagine your a killer of woman, it's the most important part of your fantasy. You have everything planned out meticulously. And then at the final step, when all you need is your victim. You end up picking a male by mistake. Overkill occurs. Who knows? I'm just throwing it out there. Keep up the amazing work everyone.
 
Sea slug - I love your assessment of the murders, well done. I have only on comment to make and that's about the Asian male victim. You stated that his murder was "brutal". With that being said, I can definitley see a cross dressing prostitute. If his teeth indicate crack use, then there's a good chance he was prostituting to support his habit. Even so, getting picked up as a woman and then finding out he's a man could cause (IMO) such a brutal attack. A lot of people would get freaked out and upset if it happened to them. So I find the idea put forth by others very plausible. Imagine your a killer of woman, it's the most important part of your fantasy. You have everything planned out meticulously. And then at the final step, when all you need is your victim. You end up picking a male by mistake. Overkill occurs. Who knows? I'm just throwing it out there. Keep up the amazing work everyone.

I agree that anything is possible. Was also thinking how being gay is a disgrace within many Asian families with conservative/traditional beliefs. He could have been killed and dressed in woman's clothing by his own family as a message of how humiliated he made them feel. Also, his teeth could have been broken during the assault.

So who knows right?
 
I was on the fence about a single vs. multiple killers until November, 2011 - right before Shannon Gilbert's body was found. I distinctly remember reading about a "new search" for SG based on "a tip" that she was "probably dead and dumped along a road". I remember thinking then that the SK had contacted LE. I think LE has info we are not privy to, and that is why even they have now said a single killer is involved. Who else would have left the "new" info that led to the discovery of SG's body? I also do not believe SG drowned.
 
I'm still not convinced that the GB4 killer and the AC killer aren't one and the same. In fact, I'm becoming more and more convinced that they are.

JMO
 
I'm still not convinced that the GB4 killer and the AC killer aren't one and the same. In fact, I'm becoming more and more convinced that they are.

JMO

Very possible. And now that killer moved on to Detroit or some place else. He'll probably make his way back through the Carolinas and through Florida again too.
 
We can now add a 4th victim to the list for killer number four (The Manorville Butcher).
 
This is a response to the debate on another thread, about whether the Manorville and GB4 victims are the work of one, or at least two killers. I’d like to use this space to air that debate.

For my part, I got involved with the LISK blogs when Dormer announced the connection he believed exists between the Manorville and GB4 cases. I ran on the assumption that they must have had a reason to say it and I assumed it to be so. I’ve come to believe otherwise, but on a different basis from the elements the other thread focused on.

To begin with, since evolution and signature were foci in the debate, I want to start by noting that we are not privy to the complete details of the case file, nor of the autopsy reports on any of the victims. Any number of differences between the two secondary crimes scenes can indicate the evolution we all assume to agree has taken place, as well as the signature. Worse, the information we would need to make a necessarily firm conclusion about either a connection or identifying the signature is likely, at least in part, a matter of withheld information.

“Highly organized” is one of few things we can all say about the killer (whether 1 or 2, related or unrelated) for certain. Given this alone, there is an implication that the victims endured worse tortures than the ones we assume from the information we do have. Statistically speaking, all the dismemberments were performed post-mortem. But without a primary crime scene, we cannot say we know, one way or the other.

Not too long ago, I posted a theory about OP being a totem place for the GB4 killer. I based this on the fact of the years invested in its growth, the effectiveness of the killer’s efforts to conceal the bodies and the notion that he could return to the place for any and every reason, even with friends and family, and never be connected to the bodies. The area has always been synonymous with recreation, and has always been wide open to the public. It’s a place where anyone can feel safe and be happy. My own, unprofessional conclusion is that OP bears all the earmarks of a totem place.
Contrast that with the bodies in Manorville, which were discovered relatively quickly. The killer had an opportunity to use a vast expanse of pine forest, but chose minimal obscurity. Jessica Taylor’s body was heaped in the open, on top of a pile of wood and a plastic sheet. There is no effort to conceal the body, apart from the location – it clearly would not have remained undiscovered much longer. And shock value does appear to be a factor in the killer’s method. Jane Doe #6, killed years earlier, was subjected to a greater effort of concealment. There, her killer used plastic bags, but even then, her remains were discovered within weeks.
My conclusion – an “evolution” from concealment to brazenness and back to concealment doesn’t appear to make much sense in a one-killer scenario. Moreover, the Manorville victims were discovered too quickly for one or another killer to consider the stretch along the LIE as a totem place.
A likely evolution for one killer concerns a real-life intervention, where the killer’s living arrangement changes or access to the primary crime scene is cut off entirely. In these scenarios, the killer is effectively forced to change his methods. He might also have gained incentive to create a totem place. When I first looked into this case that was the connection, for me.

That, and of course, the additional remains discovered at OP. All of the additional remains present at OP were discovered after those of the GB4, allowing for the possibility that they were dumped after the news of the first four broke; all are absent burlap, and apart from John Doe and the baby, all are partial remains.
Assuming we can safely say the GB4 experienced no dismemberments, we have another major difference in the Manorville and GB4, in that Manorville is a keeper. The GB4 killer is likely keeping trophies (clothing, cell phones, jewelry, etc.) but the Manorville killer not only kept parts as trophies but he kept them well beyond the point of his evolution in this respect.
If the Manorville killer went on to kill the GB4, then he had to have established a new primary crime scene in which to carry out the murders (presuming he stopped the dismemberments because he was cut off from it). He would have looked for a place to continue, not to be limited in. So why abandon the dismemberments?

My own unprofessional conclusion from this is that the two cases are separate, unless it turns out that LE is withholding information about dismemberments to the GB4 (IMO, evolution would mean a compromise in the size of the trophy, not the nature of it, given the Manorville killer’s long-standing attachment to the parts he clearly did keep). In addition, IF the additional remains were placed afterwards, then shock value has remained part of the Manorville killer’s signature (and definitely not part of the GB4 killer’s). It would suggest he placed them so that they would be found, a reasonable assumption that paid off in the subsequent searches. But the bottom line remains that the GB4 killer, to the best of all our knowledge, is not a keeper. It would also indicate a form of evolution evident in the differing methods employed by the two killers.
These are evolve-able behaviors, but here, evolution means change, rather than abandonment. For example, the attraction Manorville’s killer has for shock value went from plastic bags to open exposure, and presumably to the open exposure of relic trophies. If we want to say the LISK is one person, we have to account for the conflict of abandoning a practice, even as the killer continues to practice it. One way is to assume the additional remains are not additional, but had been there at OP all along. I don’t know how long the remains were out there, but it seems logical, given their contrived-seeming discovery, that they were placed after the discovery of the GB4. As a lone killer however, he could have placed his trophies afterwards as a taunt to LE, for upending his carefully-built totem place.

IMO, there are two different personalities and desires at work in these instances. One is more interested in the press than the other; one is interested in having an established safe spot while the other is not. I’m not married to my opinion because even I can pigeonhole the living whatsis out of it. But given the way terms like “evolution” and “signature” become catch-all’s for whatever change occurs, or connections that are made, I think we should keep in mind that they are specific terms; one is best observed in hindsight and the other may or may not depend on information we don’t have.
 
Does it seem odd to anyone other than myself that these girls continue to break their own "rules" for this guy? My gut tells me that he's a repeat client of these women, and doesn't kill them upon the first meeting. That would explain why there is already a certain level of trust built up and they feel comfortable enough to stray from their normal routines when it comes to him. When they catch him, and they will, you're going to find out that he's just another Joel Rifkin. Some loser with social issues that never quite "fit in", so he had to resort to killing innocent women. There's nothing special or intriguing about the guy. Just like there isn't anything special about all those that killed before him. What really bothers me is that he called a 15 year old girl and taunted her about killing her sister. I think they need to dust off the electric chair at Sing Sing just for that alone.
 
FW, this is exactly where i keep ending up re: Manorville and GB4. Without further forensic info we are just spinning our wheels. If there were just one defining link on even one of the MV victims then we might be able to say there is probably one killer. Given what has been published, it is impossible to say whether this is one prolific SK or one SK and one or more other killers.

For all we know, the victims were targeted by a member of an organized group, a person known to each of them, for what they were led to believe were specific jobs. Some of the men, the baby, and/or Jane Doe (1996 legs/fire island) may end up being folks who were in the wrong place at the wrong time. In some instances the men might even have been workers who weren't pulling their weight or were stepping out of line...and either someone wants it to look like a SK or someone responsible for disposing of the captive workers might get sadistic pleasure out of fulfilling his job requirements...
 
I like the idea Cman gave, that the GB4 victims knew their killer as a repeat customer. I'll add that they don't just abandon their own customs to accomodate him on the nights of their abductions, but they travel from distances like CT and Maine to meet him. Is that done commonly?

Another thought about the remains: the remains of the mother and child form the outermost markers of the dumping ground, like parentheses. I think that's significant and purposeful on the killer's part. If MV is also LISK, it may send a territorial message. If not, the message may be competitive ('I'm bigger and badder than him,' say).

The GB4 are marked at 500 ft intervals (roughly a tenth of a mile apart, Costello a fifth of a mile west of the others), which may have a significance of its own. I've guessed before that it could indicate he's finding his way along the darkened stretch of road by reading his odometer - so, what about the distances between those and the additional remains? Or the placement of the additional remains vis a vis the distance to the road, versus that of the GB4 (roughly 50 ft north of the road, no?). I haven't looked at these things yet, but a match to that of the GB4 would suggest a link, where a mismatch suggests a different thinking. I suggest it because there's more than one criterion on which to base an unsteady conclusion (but hell, a reason to believe, if you're into that kind of thing). Maybe someone can suggest other logistical ways to measure the area, to narrow down what sub-conscious cues make the GB4 different from the others. Any number of killers is going to be thinking in terms of safety when bodies/remains are dumped. But like I said above (IMO, IMO, IMO), the placement of the additional remains already has the comparative character of the shock-value perp.

Spinning our wheels in-freaking-deed.
 
As time evolves it is looking more likely that there are more than two killers.
 

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