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Thread: Australia - Allison Baden-Clay, 43, Brisbane QLD, 19 April 2012 - #4

  1. #201
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    Quote Originally Posted by AllyG View Post
    They wouldn't hold off on arresting a POI because of that. As soon as they have enough proof they will roll. They wouldn't want to give the POI any more time than necessary due to the chance that he could run off, commit suicide, harm others, etc.
    IF it's GBC, he's been out & about since day 1, was even shown walking to barristers in city??

    I guess I'm just thinking of those poor kids, knowing their mother's funeral is on & their father is taken away too just prior to that funeral.

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  3. #202
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    Quote Originally Posted by minni View Post
    Ockham's razor is the law of parsimony, economy or succinctness. It is a principle urging one to select among competing hypotheses that which makes the fewest assumptions and thereby offers the simplest explanation of the effect.

    there is a reason why this is an age old principle....if we can go back to the theory that doesn't carry a million assumptions....we are probably looking at the most likely scenario. Would think that the 'argument gone wrong' fits this bill better than any other. Also the single perp fits this...when we assume he had help, we are WILDLY assuming........
    I agree ... I call it the KISS principle.

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  5. #203
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    Quote Originally Posted by coolcat View Post
    This why people including myself started coming up with different scenario's and for you to then write a huge post about people getting off track is a little hypocrytical when it was you that put the notion in our mind??

    JUST SAYING...IMO
    Ok, well to be honest. And I am not going to get into any arguement. People were coming up with different scenarios way back before I even posted. And I did say that in my post. I also said I was simply putting in my 2 cents. I don't recall at all singling out any one person on their post. The thought I put out there is that there may be more to it than people are even considering. I did not post to make anyone go on a wild goose chase.. And AGAIN I have appologised if anyone did feel that. (I think there was many already doing that)

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  7. #204
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    Quote Originally Posted by marlywings View Post
    IF it's GBC, he's been out & about since day 1, was even shown walking to barristers in city??

    I guess I'm just thinking of those poor kids, knowing their mother's funeral is on & their father is taken away too just prior to that funeral.
    Yes it very well may be him. But they don't have proof of that yet. Therefore they can't act on it. I'm sure that it will be just as traumatic, if not more so, to know that a person was at the funeral pretending to mourn and to find out afterwards that they were guilty. Particularly for the children.

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  9. #205
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    It's funny that they did it that way, to state she is still considered a missing person but to create a crime scene anyway. It all goes back to the 'unspecified observations' that were made. The mind boggles. I bet we will have to wait years for all the details to come out in court.

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  11. #206
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    Quote Originally Posted by CaseClosed View Post
    Yes, many things said about this case are just hearsay and local gossip. However, in most cases gossip does contain some truth to it (fact with some embelishments). I think everybody is genuinely trying to assist and find out the truth, even those people who post things like "a friend told me", etc.

    In my view, it has now been reported by many different people here, that there was trouble in the marriage and he had an affair for 2 years. I tend to believe this. Also, that he was living at his parents home on and off. Sounds feasible, considering the above. The kids could have been with his parents due to him staying there. I don't think the kids were going to a sleepover at a friends house because they are all of different ages. If only one chid was going to a sleepover to a little friends house, then it makes sense, but not the 3 together. I therefore believe the kids were at his parents house (which night? am not sure yet). Possibly Thursday, as reported by hairdresser, which I'm inclined to believe.

    I don't think the couple was planning a night out that Thursday. I think they were past the stage of having reconciliatory romantic evenings out.

    I am convinced she died at home.
    i think the police also said they believe she was killed at home and the home was declared a crime scene.
    Last edited by bearbear; 05-07-2012 at 12:50 AM. Reason: changed shed to she!

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  13. #207
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    Quote Originally Posted by AllyG View Post
    They wouldn't hold off on arresting a POI because of that. As soon as they have enough proof they will roll. They wouldn't want to give the POI any more time than necessary due to the chance that he could run off, commit suicide, harm others, etc.
    Good thought. Though he has not been named as POI officially. And if Police do have a knowledge of what went down and maybe IF he is involved it was accidental and they feel that it is appropriate and in best interests of the children, and he is being watched at all times? I don't know?

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  15. #208
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    Anyway, it seems to me that we're just hashing over the same information as nothing new has come to light recently. Coming up with hypothesis after hypothesis isn't going to help us decide what happened. It isn't going to help any of us believe in the guilt or innocence of anyone. I shall watch the news with a great deal of interest but I think that it's probably time I wind up with my active participation at this point in time, and possibly come back where there is something more to discuss. Fingers crossed that some more information (and possibly an arrest) will happen soon.

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  17. #209
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    Not sure if anyone's seen this photo...

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/g...989408?page=10

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  19. #210
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    Quote Originally Posted by Paradox11 View Post
    The mind boggles. I bet we will have to wait years for all the details to come out in court.
    Very few details are likely to come out in court if it becomes a murder trial. The accused very rarely gives any oral evidence in such a trial and will therefore not be cross-examined or even speak in court beyond entering a plea. There would only be the assertions of the Crown based on what they can piece together. If the case is largely circumstantial then the prosecution doesn't even really produce a theory as to what actually happened beyond the simple assertion that the accused caused the death of the deceased. If there is a plea of guilty then there is no trial and, since the penalty is mandatory, there is no need for the convicted person to then say anything at the sentence hearing.

    If it becomes a manslaughter trial then the Crown simply has to prove that the accused caused the death and very few details are required for that. A guilty plea is very common to mansluaghter because that plea will ordinarily reduce the sentence by 30%. A guilty plea to murder is cery uncommon, because there is no sentence discount for the plea.

    The circumstances of this lady's death will likely never be known. Even if an accused person makes some sort of admission these are usually motivated by a desire to mitigate a manslaughter sentence and are therefore self-serving and somewhat unreliable.

    But the public apetite for more details is usually inversely proportional to how many are available. This is the sort of case that will spawn books and significant profits for publishers. None of those profits are likely to make their way to the children which is a great pity.

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  21. #211
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    Quote Originally Posted by marlywings View Post
    Not sure if anyone's seen this photo...

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/g...989408?page=10
    do you know whether this was pre body found or post?

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  23. #212
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    Toxicology

    Quote Originally Posted by PolyDot View Post
    The Courier-Mail are reporting police are waiting on toxicology results and forensic tests on two family cars a

    http://www.news.com.au/national/alli...#ixzz1u9QEJcWB

    So I am wondering what the toxicoly tests could me - drugs either administered by self or others, alcohol ?

    tests on cars - mud ? blood ?

    any ideas ?
    A toxicology test checks blood or urine for the presence of drugs or chemicals. In rare cases, stomach contents, sweat, or saliva may also be checked.

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  25. #213
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    Quote Originally Posted by minni View Post
    do you know whether this was pre body found or post?
    I think that they went back to school the day her body was discovered, obviously prior to them knowing it was found. I'll have to look for an article.
    L K out L K out, there are catterpillars about!

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  27. #214
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hawkins View Post
    Very few details are likely to come out in court if it becomes a murder trial. The accused very rarely gives any oral evidence in such a trial and will therefore not be cross-examined or even speak in court beyond entering a plea. There would only be the assertions of the Crown based on what they can piece together. If the case is largely circumstantial then the prosecution doesn't even really produce a theory as to what actually happened beyond the simple assertion that the accused caused the death of the deceased. If there is a plea of guilty then there is no trial and, since the penalty is mandatory, there is no need for the convicted person to then say anything at the sentence hearing.

    If it becomes a manslaughter trial then the Crown simply has to prove that the accused caused the death and very few details are required for that. A guilty plea is very common to mansluaghter because that plea will ordinarily reduce the sentence by 30%. A guilty plea to murder is cery uncommon, because there is no sentence discount for the plea.

    The circumstances of this lady's death will likely never be known. Even if an accused person makes some sort of admission these are usually motivated by a desire to mitigate a manslaughter sentence and are therefore self-serving and somewhat unreliable.

    But the public apetite for more details is usually inversely proportional to how many are available. This is the sort of case that will spawn books and significant profits for publishers. None of those profits are likely to make their way to the children which is a great pity.
    thats very sad. We just assume its our right to hear all the evidence and that it will all be tied up neatly some time soon, I've noticed that it is rare for evidence and 'what is known' to allow the law to make the right decisions.. the technical aspect of law is what holds it back so often, and what can in fact, work against itself

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  29. #215
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    Quote Originally Posted by minni View Post
    do you know whether this was pre body found or post?
    After Allison's body was found I think,...all the photos are pretty much in order from the beginning.

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  31. #216
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shelbinator View Post
    I think that they went back to school the day her body was discovered, obviously prior to them knowing it was found. I'll have to look for an article.
    Yes you could be right, they returned to school, he went back to work. Police went to his office to notify him her body had been found.

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  33. #217
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    Quote Originally Posted by marlywings View Post
    After Allison's body was found I think,...all the photos are pretty much in order from the beginning.
    what is that in the back quarter window of the car? seems weird, because these windows dont open? is that right?

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  35. #218
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    I just went over this video from after Allison's body was found - [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-MsU_So4M0"]ALLISON BADEN-CLAY UPDATE 010512 - YouTube[/ame] (ALLISON BADEN-CLAY UPDATE 010512 )

    The police quote is "We've had several pieces of information come forward with respect to the movement of both vehicles."

    Hmm "both" vehicles.

    This is interesting because none of the stories attributed to GBC (ABC last seen watching tv @10pm or going for walk either at night or in the morning - all are still being mentioned in press) involve admission of any driving.

    And obviously police doing test runs to roundabout are trying to establish something about the BC cars being driven that night, which would, if nothing else, disprove any of the stories previously given.

    If both cars were driven at some point, it could point to a second person involved. Even if Allison drove off originally, someone else would have been needed to help bring both cars home if they had travelled any significant distance. Catching a taxi would have been traceable, too late and too obvious for public transport and too far to walk.

    Or else they didn't go that far (maybe only the 2km to where the 3 screams were heard and dogs were going nuts) then one person could drive home with car 1 then walk back for car 2.

    If Allison didn't drive anywhere, I can't see why 2 cars would have been out at all. Unless they're just talking about when ABC and GCB arrived home in the afternoon/evening (but that seems normal and unremarkable and not what they're talking about).

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  37. #219
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    A refresher on the locations - http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/pic...0478293?page=2
    Additionally the screams were heard from a home located between Winrock Street and Moggil road - some distance from the house and the "hot spot". This info was determined after searching near maps and matching the house to the one that the witness was standing out the front of - http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/s...-1226341635374

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  39. #220
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    Quote Originally Posted by Neuromancer View Post
    I just went over this video from after Allison's body was found - ALLISON BADEN-CLAY UPDATE 010512 - YouTube (ALLISON BADEN-CLAY UPDATE 010512 )

    The police quote is "We've had several pieces of information come forward with respect to the movement of both vehicles."

    Hmm "both" vehicles.
    there seems to be more and more indication that his story of going to bed at 10pm after seeing her watching telly is utter crap!

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  41. #221
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    Quote Originally Posted by minni View Post
    what is that in the back quarter window of the car? seems weird, because these windows dont open? is that right?
    Some type of sticker on inside of window??

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  43. #222
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hawkins View Post
    Very few details are likely to come out in court if it becomes a murder trial. The accused very rarely gives any oral evidence in such a trial and will therefore not be cross-examined or even speak in court beyond entering a plea. There would only be the assertions of the Crown based on what they can piece together. If the case is largely circumstantial then the prosecution doesn't even really produce a theory as to what actually happened beyond the simple assertion that the accused caused the death of the deceased. If there is a plea of guilty then there is no trial and, since the penalty is mandatory, there is no need for the convicted person to then say anything at the sentence hearing.

    If it becomes a manslaughter trial then the Crown simply has to prove that the accused caused the death and very few details are required for that. A guilty plea is very common to mansluaghter because that plea will ordinarily reduce the sentence by 30%. A guilty plea to murder is cery uncommon, because there is no sentence discount for the plea.

    The circumstances of this lady's death will likely never be known. Even if an accused person makes some sort of admission these are usually motivated by a desire to mitigate a manslaughter sentence and are therefore self-serving and somewhat unreliable.

    But the public apetite for more details is usually inversely proportional to how many are available. This is the sort of case that will spawn books and significant profits for publishers. None of those profits are likely to make their way to the children which is a great pity.
    I doubt we will ever know the full story of what happened, and personally i don't really care about the grizzly details or the sordid details of thier personal lives, but at the moment it is like having a puzzle with very few pieces. It would be satisfying to know what the police know right now.

    Or maybe not. Maybe they are just as frustrated as others trying to make sense of this.

    I guess what I really want is for the other boot to drop. Everything is so up in air, the suspense is really frustrating.

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  45. #223
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    Quote Originally Posted by CaseClosed View Post
    C21 offices are independent franchises. He would not have access to that one.
    Hi CC, as I understand it, C21 Westside used to be located there but moved to Taringa some time ago.

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  47. #224
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    Quote Originally Posted by marlywings View Post
    Some type of sticker on inside of window??
    no the top left corner over laps the divider between two windows, making it look like there is something in front of it

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  49. #225
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    Quote Originally Posted by CaseClosed View Post
    I don't think the kids were going to a sleepover at a friends house because they are all of different ages. If only one chid was going to a sleepover to a little friends house, then it makes sense, but not the 3 together. I therefore believe the kids were at his parents house (which night? am not sure yet). Possibly Thursday, as reported by hairdresser, which I'm inclined to believe.
    It may be strange to you, but not others. My boys have a particular friend (whose 12 ) and he has a brother who is 4. Whenever the 12 year old stays here we always have his brother aswell now, as I dont like to leave him out. In the early days when just the older one stayed, the little one would come when his Mum picked his brother up and really enjoyed playing here, so from then on they are a package deal which I find sweet. They have a sister who is 18 months old and I know that when shes older, she will probably want to stay here aswell! Im happy to have the whole 3 of them.

    These are not "family friends" by any means, just a great school friend of my boys who have brothers/sisters who I dont like to see left out. I have known the Mum over a few years, she trusts me, and vice versa but we dont "hang out" or anything. Just saying that its not unsual for someone to have all the kids.

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