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Thread: AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #23

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    Quote Originally Posted by eileenhawkeye View Post
    So you believe that an intruder killed JonBenet and kidnapped Baby Lisa? And that Ron had no involvement in Haleigh's disappearance? Do you put Misty and Terri Horman to be in the parents category? Do you believe they are innocent? What about Shawn Adkins in Hailey's case? He was the live-in boyfriend. There's been strong suspicions towards family members in all of those cases.
    I have no idea who killed JonBenet, but yes, I do believe an intruder took Lisa. And I do not think RC had anything to do with Haleigh's disappearance. No, Terri and Misty were not and are not parents. I have my doubts about Terri's innocence, and not sure about Misty. Shawn Adkins was not a parent. I do believe however just as in this case there are strong suspicions but suspicions do not prove guilt. And that was what I was responding to in that post.

    But, there were also strong suspicions in Sierra's case. And those proved unfounded. I have not seen anything in Isa's situation that indicate either of her parents did anything to her. Please do not bring up RC's dismissed dui. Or SC's tickets from animal control. When I see something concrete I will base my opinion on that. And I feel that if SC's order to stay away from the boys or the CPS visit in December was in any way a dangerous issue, he would have been arrested or the order would have been issued back in December. Until I know the details I can't make a judgement. I realize other's feel very strongly about this and disagree with me, and that is their perogative. This is the way I feel and this is just my opinion. I just get very discouraged when I see comments based on invalid data. Of all the cases you named above the only one I recall as having been named a POI is Shawn Adkins. Maybe Terri, I am not sure. jmo
    My prayers are for the innocent.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mck16 View Post
    (snipped) But, there were also strong suspicions in Sierra's case. And those proved unfounded. I have not seen anything in Isa's situation that indicate either of her parents did anything to her...I just get very discouraged when I see comments based on invalid data
    Any comparison of this case to Sierra's is unjustified, IMO. In Sierra's case, LE stated, over and over, that Sierra's mom, her boyfriend and her dad were cleared.

    In this case, LE have stated, over and over, that the Celis' have not been cleared.

    That statement you just made is based on invalid data.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Lark2 View Post
    Any comparison of this case to Sierra's is unjustified, IMO. In Sierra's case, LE stated, over and over, that Sierra's mom, her boyfriend and her dad were cleared.

    In this case, LE have stated, over and over, that the Celis' have not been cleared.

    That statement you just made is based on invalid data.
    That actually isnt true though, Lark2.

    At first they did say that in Sierra's case but Sheriff Smith was asked that question a few weeks later and clearly stated "NO ONE has been ruled out." When that complete turn was made by SS there was plenty of discussion about it.

    And it really didnt matter to a lot of posters that LE had once stated they were all ruled out. On the MBs the majority were still falsely accusing Marlene of covering up for her boyfriend, Rick.

    IMO
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lark2 View Post
    Any comparison of this case to Sierra's is unjustified, IMO. In Sierra's case, LE stated, over and over, that Sierra's mom, her boyfriend and her dad were cleared.

    In this case, LE have stated, over and over, that the Celis' have not been cleared.

    That statement you just made is based on invalid data.
    No, it really isn't. It is just not clear and that is my fault. I meant suspicions from some posters and not LE. Sorry, I did not explain it very well, but my post was already too long. And as a side note I think LE has said in this case that no one has been cleared not just the parents. I guess that can be intrepreted anyway you want. jmo
    My prayers are for the innocent.

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    Quote Originally Posted by oceanblueeyes View Post
    That actually isnt true though, Lark2.

    At first they did say that in Sierra's case but Sheriff Smith was asked that question a few weeks later and clearly stated "NO ONE has been ruled out." When that complete turn was made by SS there was plenty of discussion about it.

    And it really didnt matter to a lot of posters that LE had once stated they were all ruled out. On the MBs the majority were still falsely accusing Marlene of covering up for her boyfriend, Rick.

    IMO
    And as I remember tried to drag her father into the mix. jmo
    My prayers are for the innocent.

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    Quote Originally Posted by oceanblueeyes View Post
    That actually isnt true though, Lark2.

    At first they did say that in Sierra's case but Sheriff Smith was asked that question a few weeks later and clearly stated "NO ONE has been ruled out." When that complete turn was made by SS there was plenty of discussion about it.

    And it really didnt matter to a lot of posters that LE had once stated they were all ruled out. On the MBs the majority were still falsely accusing Marlene of covering up for her boyfriend, Rick.

    IMO
    I am not talking about posters' interpretations of what LE says, I'm talking facts here. The local police stated over and over that Marlene, her boyfriend Rick, and Sierra's Dad were ruleld out - cleared. That was quoted and widely publicized and reaffirmed by LE over and over again as it was released very early on. Yes, on one show, one time, the Sherrif said, "No one has been ruled out" and in the same show it was corrected. So, bringing up that corrected inacuracy isn't fair, IMO.

    But, no worries. You can have this any way you want it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mck16 View Post
    And as I remember tried to drag her father into the mix. jmo
    Okay, but what about Celina Cass= the stepfather is the key suspect.

    And Ayla Reynolds. = her father and immediate family, labeled as key suspects.

    And Kyron, his stepmother= prime suspect.

    Sky Metalwawa= Mother, the only suspect.

    Joshua Davis= only his family was present when he went missing from the trailer.
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    Quote Originally Posted by oceanblueeyes View Post
    It has nothing to do with not wanting to believe Isa's parents could harm her..at least not for me anyway. I have been researching true crime for decades and am brutally aware what some parents are capable of doing to their defenseless children.

    BUT........

    i dont think she was killed in her home by someone she knew. If so the K-9 dogs would have alerted to her cadaver scent instead of tracking an unfamiliar scent taken from the scent sample from Isa's bedroom window sill. The dog tracked from Isa's home over to Cooper Street (which is more likely where the perp got into his vehicle with Isa, imo) and left. The scent was so strong that it gave TPD probable cause for a SW on that home. LE doesnt ask the Mexican LE to put up missing fliers in Mexico of a child that they already know has died in their own home.

    And there have also been cases where a stranger took a child from their bedroom and until this case is resolved one way or the other with the real suspect being caught... I have no idea what category to put Isa in. That is like trying to read tealeaves, imo, which I try hard not to do, especially without any facts to support it.

    Until I see some valid evidence pointing to who really did this. I will not jump the gun, and assume who the suspect is when "I' really dont know. That is how I have always based my opinions. If some evidence should come to light in the near or distant future, I certainly can, and do change my opinion, but I am not nearly there yet because no evidence at all has been disclosed.

    Imo, using an unknown and stating it is Isa's parents is not something I do. I also look at each case individually and not lumped together based on statistics nor what happened in the last case or the first..etc.

    Imo, 115 known (and many unknown imo) do kidnap small children Isa's age from their own homes. I have no way of knowing if Isa is or isnt in that 115 who are kidnapped each year.

    Now that is just how "I" base my opinions and it has served me very well over the many years being on MBs.

    Of course what other posters wish to do on any given case is their entitled rights to do and give whatever opinion they wish.

    This only applies to "my" opinions.


    IMO
    With All Due Respect

    About the tracking dogs alerting as proof of her " kidnap", I think the cadaver dog findings in the house are redacted in the released documents. But what ever it is was enough to: seal off the house as a crime scene, ask the family to move else where, and have CPS launch a family Safety Plan.

    <<"We have information obtained from the dogs that necessitate our follow-up investigation," Chief Villasenor said at a news conference. "In order to do that, we secured the residence. We've asked the family to leave the residence so we don't have to talk about any other contamination of the scene."

    http://usnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/20...zona-home?lite


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    Quote Originally Posted by mck16 View Post
    And as I remember tried to drag her father into the mix. jmo
    Dad ruled out and cleared, annoucned early on in press conference.

    But again, no worries. If you want to think the dad was dragged in, and the parents were never cleared, etc etc, then you can think that. It's not the truth, it's not the facts - but you can think that, it's a free country.

    Heck, there's people out there who still think OJ's innocent. Everyone is entitled to an opinion, as they say.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Lark2 View Post
    Dad ruled out and cleared, annoucned early on in press conference.

    But again, no worries. If you want to think the dad was dragged in, and the parents were never cleared, etc etc, then you can think that. It's not the truth, it's not the facts - but you can think that, it's a free country.

    Heck, there's people out there who still think OJ's innocent. Everyone is entitled to an opinion, as they say.
    I really don't want to argue this. Just one more thing and then I will stop. I don't think you read the original post that I was responding to.

    posted by Torresmom003 snipped: Even with all of the missing children cases that we here at WS have seen and followed that turned out to be because of a "parent", it is not something that we want to think happened in every missing child case. Unfortunately, more often than not, that is what it is.

    I simply stated that I could not think of that many I have followed that it turned out to be the parents. Actually only 2 where the parent/s were arrested. jmo
    My prayers are for the innocent.

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    Quote Originally Posted by katydid23 View Post
    Okay, but what about Celina Cass= the stepfather is the key suspect.

    And Ayla Reynolds. = her father and immediate family, labeled as key suspects.

    And Kyron, his stepmother= prime suspect.

    Sky Metalwawa= Mother, the only suspect.

    Joshua Davis= only his family was present when he went missing from the trailer.
    thanks. I never read that the stepfather was a key suspect.
    Ayla Reynolds while I know about the case I have not followed it on WS.
    I agree with Kyron's sm
    Am not familiar with nor am I following Sky or Joshua. fwiw
    My prayers are for the innocent.

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    Quote Originally Posted by iSleuth View Post
    With All Due Respect


    <<"We have information obtained from the dogs that necessitate our follow-up investigation," Chief Villasenor said at a news conference. "In order to do that, we secured the residence. We've asked the family to leave the residence so we don't have to talk about any other contamination of the scene."

    http://usnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/20...zona-home?lite
    Wait a sec. Now that I see this statement, doesn't it look like....

    " so we don't have any other contamination"

    maybe the outsider scent the tracking dogs picked up on was the handy helping cleaning neighbor "aunt" or some other contamination after the 911 call itself?

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    Quote Originally Posted by mck16 View Post
    I have no idea who killed JonBenet, but yes, I do believe an intruder took Lisa. And I do not think RC had anything to do with Haleigh's disappearance. No, Terri and Misty were not and are not parents. I have my doubts about Terri's innocence, and not sure about Misty. Shawn Adkins was not a parent. I do believe however just as in this case there are strong suspicions but suspicions do not prove guilt. And that was what I was responding to in that post.

    But, there were also strong suspicions in Sierra's case. And those proved unfounded. I have not seen anything in Isa's situation that indicate either of her parents did anything to her. Please do not bring up RC's dismissed dui. Or SC's tickets from animal control. When I see something concrete I will base my opinion on that. And I feel that if SC's order to stay away from the boys or the CPS visit in December was in any way a dangerous issue, he would have been arrested or the order would have been issued back in December. Until I know the details I can't make a judgement. I realize other's feel very strongly about this and disagree with me, and that is their perogative. This is the way I feel and this is just my opinion. I just get very discouraged when I see comments based on invalid data. Of all the cases you named above the only one I recall as having been named a POI is Shawn Adkins. Maybe Terri, I am not sure. jmo
    The quickest way to become a fool is to argue with one..

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    Quote Originally Posted by Lark2 View Post
    Dad ruled out and cleared, annoucned early on in press conference.

    But again, no worries. If you want to think the dad was dragged in, and the parents were never cleared, etc etc, then you can think that. It's not the truth, it's not the facts - but you can think that, it's a free country.

    Heck, there's people out there who still think OJ's innocent. Everyone is entitled to an opinion, as they say.

    Not sure that is exactly what they say . But, my point was also I don't have an opinion yet as to guilt or innocence or who did it, because I have seen no facts to sway me one way or the other. And like most everyone here that is what I am waiting on. ty
    My prayers are for the innocent.

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    Quote Originally Posted by katydid23 View Post
    Okay, but what about Celina Cass= the stepfather is the key suspect.

    And Ayla Reynolds. = her father and immediate family, labeled as key suspects.

    And Kyron, his stepmother= prime suspect.

    Sky Metalwawa= Mother, the only suspect.

    Joshua Davis= only his family was present when he went missing from the trailer.
    Just to clarify, The spokesman for LE in Ayla's case wouldn't say whether or not there are suspects. http://bangordailynews.com/2012/05/3...e-found-alive/ (Not that I believe there aren't, and anyhow your point is well-taken.)
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    I've noticed that in numerous photographs, Isabel has on the same pair of earrings. They are sort of dangly. Maybe brass or gold, hard to describe. Just thinking this morning that I would love to know if those earrings are still in her room. I think she wore them often, if not always. But I would doubt she wore them to bed, per se . . .

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    Quote Originally Posted by iSleuth View Post
    With All Due Respect

    About the tracking dogs alerting as proof of her " kidnap", I think the cadaver dog findings in the house are redacted in the released documents. But what ever it is was enough to: seal off the house as a crime scene, ask the family to move else where, and have CPS launch a family Safety Plan.

    <<"We have information obtained from the dogs that necessitate our follow-up investigation," Chief Villasenor said at a news conference. "In order to do that, we secured the residence. We've asked the family to leave the residence so we don't have to talk about any other contamination of the scene."

    http://usnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/20...zona-home?lite



    I think that the phrasing of that last sentence is interesting. "Talk" with whom? The media, who might be raising questions about something that's not really an issue in this particular instance? Investigators, who might have concerns about contamination on principle and/or because of what they *see (or don't see) in the data from this particular scene?
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    Quote Originally Posted by oceanblueeyes View Post
    It has nothing to do with not wanting to believe Isa's parents could harm her..at least not for me anyway. I have been researching true crime for decades and am brutally aware what some parents are capable of doing to their defenseless children.

    BUT........

    i dont think she was killed in her home by someone she knew. If so the K-9 dogs would have alerted to her cadaver scent instead of tracking an unfamiliar scent taken from the scent sample from Isa's bedroom window sill. The dog tracked from Isa's home over to Cooper Street (which is more likely where the perp got into his vehicle with Isa, imo) and left. The scent was so strong that it gave TPD probable cause for a SW on that home. LE doesnt ask the Mexican LE to put up missing fliers in Mexico of a child that they already know has died in their own home.

    And there have also been cases where a stranger took a child from their bedroom and until this case is resolved one way or the other with the real suspect being caught... I have no idea what category to put Isa in. That is like trying to read tealeaves, imo, which I try hard not to do, especially without any facts to support it.

    Until I see some valid evidence pointing to who really did this. I will not jump the gun, and assume who the suspect is when "I' really dont know. That is how I have always based my opinions. If some evidence should come to light in the near or distant future, I certainly can, and do change my opinion, but I am not nearly there yet because no evidence at all has been disclosed.

    Imo, using an unknown and stating it is Isa's parents is not something I do. I also look at each case individually and not lumped together based on statistics nor what happened in the last case or the first..etc.

    Imo, 115 known (and many unknown imo) do kidnap small children Isa's age from their own homes. I have no way of knowing if Isa is or isnt in that 115 who are kidnapped each year.

    Now that is just how "I" base my opinions and it has served me very well over the many years being on MBs.

    Of course what other posters wish to do on any given case is their entitled rights to do and give whatever opinion they wish.

    This only applies to "my" opinions.


    IMO
    BBM-

    Prof very patiently explained to me, even mapped the location of the home on Cooper, which you refer to. It is the house directly across the alley from the Celis home.

    I read that a scent pad was collected from Isa's bedroom window. I read that the dog(s) tracked a scent to the home on Cooper, a search warrant was obtained and the home was searched.

    What I don't remember reading is that the scent pad was what lead LE/Dogs to that home? Can you point me to where this is said?
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    Quote Originally Posted by TxLady2 View Post
    Why does any perp target any one person? The answers to that question are endless.
    Here is my point....

    People are adding complexity to the motive.

    1. Stranger abduction
    2. Take over border

    So, in "stranger abductions" think about other cases. Neighbors, former handyman, people with limited opportunity (Shawn Hornbeck), etc. Usually the motive is sexual assault, etc.

    So, now we are taking it to another level of complexity. Stranger abduction PLUS taking her over the border.

    Why would a stranger take her over the border? What is the motive?

    To me it is no longer a sexual assault case...if it isn't sexual assault, are they kidnapping her to put her into illegal sexual trade?

    So then my question is, if THAT is the motive, why target a kid that lives in the house with a giant wall, dogs, and multiple family members at home...with neighbors that are so close they can see inside your house from their window. Why not target the MUCH more higher risk children than one sleeping inside the house.

    I can buy stranger abduction. But I can't buy stranger abduction to take her over the border.

    But I'm still firmly in the camp of (FDI) family did it at this point.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PlainJaneDoe View Post
    I think that the phrasing of that last sentence is interesting. "Talk" with whom? The media, who might be raising questions about something that's not really an issue in this particular instance? Investigators, who might have concerns about contamination on principle and/or because of what they *see (or don't see) in the data from this particular scene?
    Talk in "court"? Which Villasenor states rather definitively WILL happen!

    Now, of course, there will be no discussion of evidence in the Kitchen, since obviously, with the cleaning and picking up, all evidence would be potentially contaminated. But I guess LE never examined the kitchen?

    And I doubt very much that the jury will be like the OJ jury, who accepted all kinds of smoke and mirrors from the dream team about contamination . . .

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    I am wrong; didn't (very) recently LE say they have been able to rule out "some" family members? Of course they didn't specify, but I wondered which family members. Anyone remember the context & quote to that one. I am tied up now, but if nobody is able to find it, I will search later.


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    Quote Originally Posted by joedotnet View Post
    Here is my point....

    People are adding complexity to the motive.

    1. Stranger abduction
    2. Take over border

    *snip* To me it is no longer a sexual assault case...if it isn't sexual assault, are they kidnapping her to put her into illegal sexual trade?

    So then my question is, if THAT is the motive, why target a kid that lives in the house with a giant wall, dogs, and multiple family members at home...with neighbors that are so close they can see inside your house from their window. Why not target the MUCH more higher risk children than one sleeping inside the house.

    I can buy stranger abduction. But I can't buy stranger abduction to take her over the border.

    But I'm still firmly in the camp of (FDI) family did it at this point.
    Exactly. Plenty of Mexicans in Mexico. Plenty of street kids there for the pickin'. That sounds rude of me, but that's how it is.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Knox View Post
    BBM-

    Prof very patiently explained to me, even mapped the location of the home on Cooper, which you refer to. It is the house directly across the alley from the Celis home.

    I read that a scent pad was collected from Isa's bedroom window. I read that the dog(s) tracked a scent to the home on Cooper, a search warrant was obtained and the home was searched.

    What I don't remember reading is that the scent pad was what lead LE/Dogs to that home? Can you point me to where this is said?
    As far as I know, it was the Department of Corrections K-9 Unit who had a hit on the house on Cooper. This report does not state what scent specifically they were tracking. I suppose they could have been tracking the scent sample taken from the window, or they could have been tracking Isa's scent. I am not sure we can say either way. Whatever the scent, we do know they served a warrant on the house.
    This is all stated in the first two sentences of the above report.
    http://i48.tinypic.com/125jma0.jpg

    I think that in order to conclude that the dog tracked the scent to the Cooper home, we have to make a couple assumptions.

    1. As far as the scent sample taken from the window, we have to assume that is a foreign scent, and not a family scent. This seems a safe assumption. IMO There would be no need to take a sample from the window of a family scent. The scent sample is to use for tracking.

    2. We would have to assume that the foreign scent sample was given to the DOC K-9 units to track.

    Correct?
    I may have missed a report, though.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Knox View Post
    BBM-

    Prof very patiently explained to me, even mapped the location of the home on Cooper, which you refer to. It is the house directly across the alley from the Celis home.

    I read that a scent pad was collected from Isa's bedroom window. I read that the dog(s) tracked a scent to the home on Cooper, a search warrant was obtained and the home was searched.

    What I don't remember reading is that the scent pad was what lead LE/Dogs to that home? Can you point me to where this is said?
    Discussion of scent pad from window is in packet 5, page 59. Now, that's just the scent pad, dunno if there's anything about the neighbor's home.

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