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  1. #1
    kpdx's Avatar
    kpdx is offline Jane Doe was discovered Aug. 14, 1977 outside of Everett WA
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    Distance between MPs and UIDs

    One thing we debate a lot in this forum is distance between MPs and UIDs and the impact on the likelihood of a possible match. I have long been curious on what the actual stats are on matches made after several years, regardless of circumstance (homicide, suicide, accidental, etc).

    I have started to compile a spreadsheet based on available information about resolved cases, and what it reveals is pretty interesting. I think as I continue to build it out (CarlK can vouch for these type of spreadsheets being time consuming love's labors) I will be able to share more in depth analysis, but here are some interesting insights based on the first 50 cases with available data. I think its something to keep in mind when making matches...and may help us develop new methods for narrowing the scope of MPs to match.

    *The average distance between MPs and located remains is 46.
    *Most fall between the 20-35 mile range...There are a couple of cases where the distance is significant (one cross country case I left out of average), but for the most part, regardless of circumstance, MPs are located within a 35 mile radius.
    *Not surprisingly, DNA has been critical in matching up MPs and UIDs. This underlines the need for families of MP to register their DNA. I am wondering if all reporting agencies are giving proper information to families about resources available to do so?
    *So far, I have noted that demographic determinations made on UIDs (race, gender) impeded matches.
    *This may seem obvious, but its nonetheless interesting that a lot of UIDs are located in rural or wooded locations, regardless of circumstances. Naturally, this good be because chances of finding remains are statistically lower when obscured from view...but it also opens the possibility for additional search techniques and locations when a MP case is hot.

    If anyone has any additional suggestions for data that interests them with matched/resolved cases as I continue to build this out, I would love to hear it. My end goal is ultimately to develop some kind of mapping so its possible to visually and mathematically analyze typical distances between MPs and UIDs
    'Nothing clears up a case so much as stating it to another person.'

    Sherlock Holmes

  2. #2
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    I find this topic interesting and useful. Oddly enough, I came into this WS area to post something I stumbled across and it fits somewhat into what you are talking about.
    http://www.sipr.ac.uk/networks/missing_persons.php

    There is a 3 year study going on in the UK: " Geographies of missing people: processes, experiences and responses". I think it's main focus is missing people who later turn up alive and well, but it might also have application for people who become UID.

    snip:
    This project seeks to assess how different data-driven spatial information might influence such operations. This project seeks answers to the questions such as 'how do we know where missing people are likely to go'?; 'how can we improve that knowledge'?; 'how might police and family search strategies involve different geographical knowledges and assumptions'? and 'what do the experiences of returnees tell us about the lived geographies of the missing'? Answers to these questions potentially hold huge relevance for police and families searchers.
    Wouldn't it be great if they had a similar study done here but with murder victims, uids, missing persons, etc.?

  3. #3
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    Also, great work kpdx!

    I would be interested to know other statistical data you might have.

    I wouldn't mind knowing a lot of things: death date vs. last seen, height reported vs. measured, so on...
    Some of the things can't be quantified well like: does reconstruction look like the missing person.

    Really any info you can hand over will be useful, I think.

  4. #4
    kpdx's Avatar
    kpdx is offline Jane Doe was discovered Aug. 14, 1977 outside of Everett WA
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    Quote Originally Posted by deca View Post
    Also, great work kpdx!

    I would be interested to know other statistical data you might have.

    I wouldn't mind knowing a lot of things: death date vs. last seen, height reported vs. measured, so on...
    Some of the things can't be quantified well like: does reconstruction look like the missing person.

    Really any info you can hand over will be useful, I think.
    That totally inspires me, deca, thanks! Maybe I will prep a white paper after I collect more data.

    I will add the other components you mentioned, because I think aggregated the statistics might be a useful tool!
    'Nothing clears up a case so much as stating it to another person.'

    Sherlock Holmes

  5. #5
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    I wonder if some Criminology expert has written any kind of thesis on this type of thing. When I get some time I am going to look around and ask people....husband works at a school with a Crim dept.

  6. #6
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    So do these account for just murder cases?

    I'm thinking if you account accidental deaths or suicides it may skew the data? I could be wrong though.

  7. #7
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    This book is a good resourse for people who are missing without foul play. And generally in foot (both of which might be good cuts on the data). Itprovides statistical data and counts good and bad outcomes for @30 types of missing people. Based mostly on park service data.

    Quink highlights are that this research generally shows that people do not make it that far. Most trend downhill, except for those intent on self harm. Althezimers patients generally go back to a place in the past. And children often do not realize that they are lost and behave differently by age.

    Lost Person Behavior: A search and rescue guide on where to ...
    www.amazon.com › ... › Criminology
    Robert J. Koester first joined the Appalachian Search & Rescue Conference in 1981. He holds an MS in ...



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