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View Poll Results: Will the Long Island Serial Killer ever be caught?

Voters
302. You may not vote on this poll
  • YES.

    128 42.38%
  • NO.

    97 32.12%
  • NOT SURE.

    77 25.50%

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  1. #61
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    I wrote, almost two and a half years ago a profile. The few things that happened in the meantime didn't damage the profile or, in some little details, supported it with additional information in the victimology. Problem is, I sketched out also at least one possible way to get the guy. That was 2 1/2 years ago. In the meantime, the necessary evidence is gone, tapes erased and so on. And of course, I had in the meantime a lot of fruitless discussions here aimed rather to prove that profiling is wrong anyway (statistically luck or profiles catch SKs, sometimes both together, but we wait still since Jack the Ripper for the real successes of the other methods), why this profile in special had to be wrong (basically because it's political incorrect) and a lot of trouble because I was so abrasive to mention physical limitations to some pretty wild theories here. So ... LISK won't be called. SCPD, like most PDs alone, is neither trained nor experienced to deal with such a killer, the BAU is down to the wire due to political abuse and boards like this are anyway not about catching anything but a headache. So, the average time to catch a serial killer is 17 years, tendency to grow longer. But this type, combined with the strategy, SCPD has chosen, most of us will die from old age before and if they catch him at all. End of the story, do with it what your want.
    Sometimes, being a squirrel can be a real nutjob!

  2. #62
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    PB, with all due respects you have no way of knowing if the killer will be caught or not caught. As we speak he may be in the station house giving a statement. There is just no way to tell.

    You will also know I have been a frequent critic of the SCPD. I will tell you they are more than capable to catch the killer as many as the other departments scattered over the nation.

    My only reservations regarding this case has more to do with the police officials and politicians who may be involved in this case than the detectives that are charged with investigating the case.

    THIS CASE CAN BE SOLVED, and I expect it will - barring interference of those that are controlling the case.

    They tried to 'solve' this case by spreading the Bissett rumor and fell on their face.

  3. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by hawkshaw View Post
    PB, with all due respects you have no way of knowing if the killer will be caught or not caught. As we speak he may be in the station house giving a statement. There is just no way to tell.

    You will also know I have been a frequent critic of the SCPD. I will tell you they are more than capable to catch the killer as many as the other departments scattered over the nation.

    My only reservations regarding this case has more to do with the police officials and politicians who may be involved in this case than the detectives that are charged with investigating the case.

    THIS CASE CAN BE SOLVED, and I expect it will - barring interference of those that are controlling the case.

    They tried to 'solve' this case by spreading the Bissett rumor and fell on their face.
    Okay, that we get that right: There is a poll. everyone can say his opinion. The only thing different I did, was mentioning the bloody truth. Which is reason enough to jump me, Hawkshaw.

    Lets face it, none, not one of the East Coast PDs has made even one good hit against even one SK unless it was an extremely stupid in the entirely unorganized range, and even then, when the killers basically delivered them the hints right into their faces, they tried hard ot mess it up. So, what statistical evidence is there, especially SCPD, which has as of yet collected and repeated all mistakes from every botched SK investigation in the US in the last two decades is in any form able to solve this case? I mean, secrecy tactics, spreading a rumor the wrong way, denial tactics, cheap flush out profiles, playing A against B ... it's all not new and it didn't work even it was better played than SCPD did it. So ... what makes you think, with a record of 100% botched, they will catch LISK. You say, he could sit this minute at a station ... well, theoretically, if they got him speeding or wrong parking. Which means, he will be out soon because they won't even recognize what they got there. With the same probability, Jesus himself could be sitting in a station. Or the Archangel Michael for flying too low ... so with all due respect, probabilities are, he will not be caught.
    Sometimes, being a squirrel can be a real nutjob!

  4. #64
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    Smile

    Quote Originally Posted by Peter Brendt View Post
    Okay, that we get that right: There is a poll. everyone can say his opinion. The only thing different I did, was mentioning the bloody truth. Which is reason enough to jump me, Hawkshaw.

    Lets face it, none, not one of the East Coast PDs has made even one good hit against even one SK unless it was an extremely stupid in the entirely unorganized range, and even then, when the killers basically delivered them the hints right into their faces, they tried hard ot mess it up. So, what statistical evidence is there, especially SCPD, which has as of yet collected and repeated all mistakes from every botched SK investigation in the US in the last two decades is in any form able to solve this case? I mean, secrecy tactics, spreading a rumor the wrong way, denial tactics, cheap flush out profiles, playing A against B ... it's all not new and it didn't work even it was better played than SCPD did it. So ... what makes you think, with a record of 100% botched, they will catch LISK. You say, he could sit this minute at a station ... well, theoretically, if they got him speeding or wrong parking. Which means, he will be out soon because they won't even recognize what they got there. With the same probability, Jesus himself could be sitting in a station. Or the Archangel Michael for flying too low ... so with all due respect, probabilities are, he will not be caught.


    IMO Hawkshaw didn't jump you at all. I think that both of you are closer to the truth and in agreement about SCPD than you realize - except when you start talking about UFO's, time machines, or the Archangel Michael and Jesus.

  5. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by NoviceSleuth View Post
    IMO Hawkshaw didn't jump you at all. I think that both of you are closer to the truth and in agreement about SCPD than you realize - except when you start talking about UFO's, time machines, or the Archangel Michael and Jesus.
    Well, I was the only one who got an answer post about an opinion ... in a poll. But about Jesus and the Michael ... sorry, but we used up all possible examples for impossibilities in theories already, I just ran out of examples. And then I even botched it, because at least for Jesus some circumstantial evidence exists, he actually lived.
    Now serious. The difference between Hawkshaw's opinion about SCPD and mine seems to be, that Hawkshaws works on the assumption that SCPS is corrupt and intentionally unable to solve that case. I work on the assumption, they would like to catch that guy but have no idea how and got entangled in a political swamp and piles of outdated rule books.
    Sometimes, being a squirrel can be a real nutjob!

  6. #66
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    (unrelated to above)

    http://fox8.com/2013/03/29/police-ad...s-are-related/

    here is yet another case destined for trouble-you can tell when, like the LISK case, statements like these are made at the beginning:

    (snipped from article) ..."****Despite the assurances by police that there is no obvious evidence of a connection****,residents expressed concern that her murder is related to the murder of JAZMINE TROTTER"

    yeah, no OBVIOUS connection except that they are both african american women, killed a mile apart, both at abandoned locations and left there, both while walking in the area, --but other than that, nothing obvious

  7. #67
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    A lot of their mumbo jumbo terminology is used for legal reasons.
    "Emotions have taught mankind to reason."
    Vauvenargues, Marquis De

  8. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by CriminalMinds View Post
    (unrelated to above)

    http://fox8.com/2013/03/29/police-ad...s-are-related/

    here is yet another case destined for trouble-you can tell when, like the LISK case, statements like these are made at the beginning:

    (snipped from article) ..."****Despite the assurances by police that there is no obvious evidence of a connection****,residents expressed concern that her murder is related to the murder of JAZMINE TROTTER"

    yeah, no OBVIOUS connection except that they are both african american women, killed a mile apart, both at abandoned locations and left there, both while walking in the area, --but other than that, nothing obvious
    Oh well, we talk Cleveland/OH here. They told for like ten years there is no connection between some reports of missing prostitutes ... till they found all bodies together on Anthony Sowell's place.
    Sometimes, being a squirrel can be a real nutjob!

  9. #69
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    Sometimes it seems as if LE say such things just to taunt or mislead the killer.
    The facts are now buried amongst theory, opinion and rumor.

  10. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by Just K View Post
    Sometimes it seems as if LE say such things just to taunt or mislead the killer.
    The oldest case I remember, some authorities tried that happened in Athens, about 560 B.C. Pindar wrote something. Didn't work already back then.
    Sometimes, being a squirrel can be a real nutjob!


  11. #71
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    PB, I didn't 'jump' on you. Statistics tell me you are probably right. If I was forced to make a bet I would say the case won't be solved. I would also add that SCPD detectives left to their own devices and without political interference can solve the case. In Suffolk County, politics is always the order of the day.

    A lot of things troubled me about the case. The letter Det.Stephan sent to Newsday really caught my attention. Why would a seasoned detective bother to write a letter such as he did to direct us away from the 911 SG call? I would have preferred he used his remaining time in the SCPD to solve the 9/24/03 murder of Peter Ghattas. That case is still open. IMO he couldn't close the case because the DA had something to hide.

    When detectives went to Florida to bring back JC for investigation, it was Spota that was sure to send a senior ADA named JSP with those detectives. JC was one of 3 suspects in that case. It was JC that was mentioned by Ghattas to detectives and then the DA implicating him scores of burglaries and other serious crimes.

    Detectives went to Florida with a Material Witness Order. A piece of cake. Why did they send a ADA? I would think the ADA had better things to do.

    IMO, ADA JSP was sent to Florida to ensure that he would not speak to the detectives. JC promptly exercised his right to counsel. Now I have been in this business for a good number of years. If you think a homicide detective is going to take a right to counsel demand seriously, I have that bridge to sell you. That is why the ADA was sent with the detectives. Once JC invoked his rights the ADA was sure to make sure he didn't speak to the detectives. Mission ACCOMPLISHED.

    The thing about this story that is still unanswered is what did JC know about his longtime neighbor, the ranking officer who presided over Spota's investigation squad. I have mentioned that officer in many of my previous postings. What I do know is 3 weeks after he was brought to the DA's office, Peter Ghattas was murdered. He was giving the DA information about some very dangerous people. One is doing 40+ years in a federal prison.

    When detectives went to California to talk JS back to NY, JS who should have been the prime suspect in the Tankleff Murders, they sent a Det.Sgt Doyle and the very controversial Det.McCready out there with ADA Jablonski. JS knew a lot about corruption in SC, and if he was charged with that crime he would have given up all the corruption in Suffolk County.

    There is nothing new under the sun when it comes to the SCPD and DA.

    This is exactly what they did when detectives went to Florida to fetch JC. Make sure he kept his mouth shut. But I think in this case the detectives were trying to do a good job in solving a homicide. In the Tankleff/JS matter all three that were sent out were all on the same page. ADA Jabolnski's job was to ensure JS that he wasn't going to be prosecuted for this case.

    I believe Stephan is a good detective. He wanted to solve the PG case as any good detective would want to do. But when Spota realized his good pal, the ranking officer could be implicated in other crimes, Spota made sure that wouldn't happen.

  12. #72
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    I'm going to ask a strange question, just bear with me...


    Are there any houses that look like castles on long island that are privately owned?
    Or like, maybe a privately owned mansion that is the size of a castle or something?

  13. #73
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    http://www.goldcoastmansions.com/

    Maybe this might help until someone more familiar with LI can help.
    "Emotions have taught mankind to reason."
    Vauvenargues, Marquis De

  14. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by hawkshaw View Post
    PB, I didn't 'jump' on you. Statistics tell me you are probably right. If I was forced to make a bet I would say the case won't be solved. I would also add that SCPD detectives left to their own devices and without political interference can solve the case. In Suffolk County, politics is always the order of the day.
    I doubt that, simply for a mathematical reason. The motives for murder are many and even more for crime in general. The usual detective has to focus on the common crimes. But guys like LISK or, at that, most other SKs are so off the normal scope and in general so rare, that they are out of the experience for most detectives. That doesn't mean they are stupid or something. But you don't go to your car mechanic to get your appendix removed. And since it is for reasons of available time impossible to learn everything, well, I doubt, the SCPD has someone really speciualized on that kind of offender.

    Quote Originally Posted by hawkshaw View Post
    A lot of things troubled me about the case. The letter Det.Stephan sent to Newsday really caught my attention. Why would a seasoned detective bother to write a letter such as he did to direct us away from the 911 SG call? I would have preferred he used his remaining time in the SCPD to solve the 9/24/03 murder of Peter Ghattas. That case is still open. IMO he couldn't close the case because the DA had something to hide.
    Your guess, your opinion, and so on. But then, if I am allowed to quote you, you have no way to know that ... oh wait, in fact, you have. Because you see the same patterns. Problem is, while I respect your opinion, you have no evidence. Not even circumstantial.

    Quote Originally Posted by hawkshaw View Post
    When detectives went to Florida to bring back JC for investigation, it was Spota that was sure to send a senior ADA named JSP with those detectives. JC was one of 3 suspects in that case. It was JC that was mentioned by Ghattas to detectives and then the DA implicating him scores of burglaries and other serious crimes.
    Only that the extradition procedure called anway for a DA, right? So he had to send one anyway and in a case with that kind of profile, it makes sense to send not the youngest in the office. So, technically, this proves nothing.

    Quote Originally Posted by hawkshaw View Post
    Detectives went to Florida with a Material Witness Order. A piece of cake. Why did they send a ADA? I would think the ADA had better things to do.
    Again, different states have different laws. If you want someone from Florida, it has to go via court or prosecutor's office. If it's prosecutors, the person actually taking over the prisoner has to be from the prosecutors office. At least that is, what I learned from Miami.

    Quote Originally Posted by hawkshaw View Post
    IMO, ADA JSP was sent to Florida to ensure that he would not speak to the detectives. JC promptly exercised his right to counsel. Now I have been in this business for a good number of years. If you think a homicide detective is going to take a right to counsel demand seriously, I have that bridge to sell you. That is why the ADA was sent with the detectives. Once JC invoked his rights the ADA was sure to make sure he didn't speak to the detectives. Mission ACCOMPLISHED.
    And that is the point, your up to here reasonable questions changed into a mere assumption which shows all symptoms of bias rather than reality. You see, no ADA can forbid a prisoner to talk to the detectives who transport him. It is legally and physically impossible (they sit in the same car, in the plane, then again in a car together).

    Quote Originally Posted by hawkshaw View Post
    The thing about this story that is still unanswered is what did JC know about his longtime neighbor, the ranking officer who presided over Spota's investigation squad. I have mentioned that officer in many of my previous postings. What I do know is 3 weeks after he was brought to the DA's office, Peter Ghattas was murdered. He was giving the DA information about some very dangerous people. One is doing 40+ years in a federal prison.
    The problem is, even if one is corrupt, ethically disagreeable or with the mob in the bed or bought by certain political powers, at the end of the day, you need evidence, at least the circumstantial kind. Bring something, not only rants or accusations, but something logically. Something someone said and could have only known from Ghatta, behavioral hints someone knew something would happen, something, and be it a small thing, but at least something.

    Quote Originally Posted by hawkshaw View Post
    When detectives went to California to talk JS back to NY, JS who should have been the prime suspect in the Tankleff Murders, they sent a Det.Sgt Doyle and the very controversial Det.McCready out there with ADA Jablonski. JS knew a lot about corruption in SC, and if he was charged with that crime he would have given up all the corruption in Suffolk County.

    There is nothing new under the sun when it comes to the SCPD and DA.
    Fine fine and if I would do such a thing, I would be attacked for claiming thing I say without any evidence as facts. But then, that's me. You can get away with it. However, aside of having not a shred of evidence, there is another thing:
    Even if you are right, even if everything is corrupt there and so on and so on ... there is no real connection to LISK. The GB4 are a clustered dump site, the wrapping, the site itself, the timing, it all shows classical SK aspects. Now, you claim to have been a detective yourself. If you miss those points, the other detectives miss them probably too (this goes to my assumption this kind of case is too off the track for normal homicide departments alone). And it shows too strong signature aspects to point to a pro or mob hit man or a dirty cop cleaning up. This is a classic.

    Quote Originally Posted by hawkshaw View Post
    This is exactly what they did when detectives went to Florida to fetch JC. Make sure he kept his mouth shut. But I think in this case the detectives were trying to do a good job in solving a homicide. In the Tankleff/JS matter all three that were sent out were all on the same page. ADA Jabolnski's job was to ensure JS that he wasn't going to be prosecuted for this case.
    So a deal was struck, happens all the time. Where is the point?

    Quote Originally Posted by hawkshaw View Post
    I believe Stephan is a good detective. He wanted to solve the PG case as any good detective would want to do. But when Spota realized his good pal, the ranking officer could be implicated in other crimes, Spota made sure that wouldn't happen.
    A claim for which you don't have evidence, not even circumstantial. And aside of that, the connection to LISK is still missing.
    Sometimes, being a squirrel can be a real nutjob!

  15. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by EmmaliLucia View Post
    I'm going to ask a strange question, just bear with me...


    Are there any houses that look like castles on long island that are privately owned?
    Or like, maybe a privately owned mansion that is the size of a castle or something?
    Sounds more Hampton-ish ...
    Sometimes, being a squirrel can be a real nutjob!

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