Tropical Storm Karen in Gulf of Mexico

Thanks, Peliman. I'll ask a mod about having it both places. This morning Karen seems to have moved a little more to the west.





I can't save this graphic at CNN that shows it even more to the west landing around Mobile:

http://www.cnn.com/2013/10/04/world/americas/tropical-storm-karen/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

The National Hurricane Center issued a hurricane watch for the area from Grand Isle, Louisiana, to west of Destin, Florida. The center of the storm is forecast to be near the coast within that area Saturday........

The storm, centered about 275 miles south-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River about 8 a.m. ET Friday, prompted the Federal Emergency Management Agency to recall some of its workers furloughed during the government shutdown. The agency also reactivated its Hurricane Liaison Team at the National Hurricane Center in Miami. FEMA officials in the Atlanta and Denton, Texas, offices are monitoring Karen........

"Karen is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast through Sunday night," the hurricane center said. "Isolated storm total amounts of 12 inches are possible.".......

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Karen's strength wavers; focus remains on central Gulf coast

http://www.wtxl.com/news/local/kare...cle_64a16168-2d14-11e3-b55c-0019bb30f31a.html

Highest sustained winds around Karen's center were 50 mph as of late Friday morning. The storm was moving north-northwest at 10 mph, and the slower rate of forward motion is expected for the rest of the day.

Karen's central low is roughly 500 miles southwest of the Big Bend coast. The current forecast track show potential landfall between the Louisiana delta region and the eastern Florida panhandle as a slightly stronger tropical storm on Sunday morning. As Karen is pushed northeastward by an approaching cold front, the remnants will combine with the front, spreading moisture and rain over Alabama, Georgia, and the Carolinas early next week.

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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/051432.shtml?

Tropical storm karen discussion number 10
nws national hurricane center miami fl al122013
1000 am cdt sat oct 05 2013

the low-level center of karen remains exposed about 100 n mi to the
west-northwest of the deep convection. Based on several sfmr
winds around 35 kt from the earlier aircraft missions in karen
early this morning...the initial intensity remains 35 kt. The next
aircraft missions into karen this afternoon will help determine if
the cyclone has weakened to a depression. The environment remains
unfavorable for intensification and most of the guidance shows
gradual weakening. The new nhc forecast shows the system weakening
to a depression in 24 hours. There is little difference in impacts
between a 30-kt depression and a 35-kt tropical storm...and
tropical storm force gusts could easily occur in convective bands.
Karen should dissipate or be absorbed by a cold front shortly after
48 hours.

Karen has been moved quickly north-northwestward over the past few
hours...and the initial position is to the left and ahead of the
previous forecast track. The initial motion estimate is now
355/07...as karen has now turned northward. A sharp northeastward
turn is shown by all of the guidance in the next 24 hours ahead of
a mid/upper-level trough...with an east-northeastward motion and an
increase in forward speed expected through dissipation......more......