Theory Thread #2 - What happened at Pistorius' house on the night of Feb. 13, 2013?

beach

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How do you feel the events unfolded that night that ultimately resulted in the death of Reeva Steenkamp?

Share your theories here.
 
New thread and hopefully the last!

Regarding delivery of judgement, I'm pretty sure we'll expect a delivery similar to the psychiatric evaluation: twists and turns, reasons for, reasons against, not really know which way we're going for a day or so and then the verdict handed out. I'm sure the more astute will be able to pick up which way she is going but I think leaving the accused hanging for as long as possible is deliberate.

I guess this thread is a good place to put down your official predictions, so mine:

Guilty of murder (dolus directus). Guilty of all gun charges. Bail denied.
 
Reposting from end of last thread.

If this is true ...

Clues about the looming verdict could emerge during the reading, but Pistorius will only know the judgment for or against him at the end of what is likely to be a long reading that will grip the world's attention.

http://m.news.com.au/BreakingNews/pg/0/fi12265332.htm

... we're in for a long wait.
 
Reposting from end of last thread.

This was published in Beeld today. I’ve used the internet to translate the relevant parts but I’ve had to rejig it a bit to make sense.

“If Carl can go, it will be in a wheelchair.

"He would obviously love to be there, but we're not sure if his doctors will allow him go," said Anneliese Burgess, family spokesman said on Wednesday.

"OP would love his brother to be there for support on the day, but the question is whether the doctors will allow it," Burgess said.

Carl is in a medical rehabilitation center in Pretoria and being treated "to regain his mobility" after numerous broken bones and internal injuries when he was injured in a very serious car accident in early August . "He was very, very hurt and we still have a long recovery before," Burgess said. It looks like he will be in a rehabilitation center for about three months.

June and Barry Steenkamp are flying from Port Elizabeth to Johannesburg for the verdict. The Steenkamps are confident that justice will be done, whatever the outcome.

At about 13:00 Oscar was in a white Volvo and drove from his uncle Arnold Pistorius's house in Waterkloof (?)rutted. He was driving and there was someone in the passenger seat, but it was not clear whom.

He returned about three and a half hours later - about 16:30.

On the question of how he goes, Burgess replied: "The time will come when he will speak. We do not want at this stage to speak on his behalf. "

She said his family tomorrow, as usual, will rally behind him in court when Masipa delivers her long-awaited ruling. It is expected to take tomorrow and Friday, and people from around the world will be glued to the end of the most sensational trial of the year to watch

Samantha Taylor, Oscar's ex-girlfriend who testified against him, will not be in court, her father, Henry, said. "Samantha is in London for a media interview and she will the verdict on TV."

http://www.beeld.com/nuus/2014-09-10-oscar-24-uur-
 
New thread and hopefully the last!

Regarding delivery of judgement, I'm pretty sure we'll expect a delivery similar to the psychiatric evaluation: twists and turns, reasons for, reasons against, not really know which way we're going for a day or so and then the verdict handed out. I'm sure the more astute will be able to pick up which way she is going but I think leaving the accused hanging for as long as possible is deliberate.

I guess this thread is a good place to put down your official predictions, so mine:

Guilty of murder (dolus directus). Guilty of all gun charges. Bail denied
.

I would go with:

1. Guilty of murder - sentence mitigated down from mandatory 15 year sentence due to disability
2. Guilty of possession of illegal ammunition - non custodial sentence consisting of a fine
3. Guilty of restaurant shooting - non custodial sentence consisting of a fine
4. Not guilty of shooting through sun roof of car

I strongly believe in the prosecution's case, but one thing that has always been in the back of my mind is that the shooting took place at 3:17AM and the first call was at 3:19AM. That's not enough time for OP to do everything he said he did and the PT didn't really address this to my knowledge. Masipa also picked up on this. If she takes this into account, I could see the murder charge being reduced to CH.
 
Guilty of murder.
Guilty of gun discharge at Tasha's.
Guilty of illegal possession of ammunition.

No bail. Straight to jail after sentencing. He's had enough free time already.

I don't think Judge Masipa will consider his disability much of a factor, particularly as he had other options he could have taken to get to safety. I also don't think she'll believe he had his back to the bed for the entire time he was bringing in the fan / fans, OR that he didn't once glance at Reeva at all after he heard the mystery 'noise', OR that not once did Reeva utter another word after asking OP if he couldn't sleep.
 
What a lovely tender photo of June and Barry.
 
Check out Oscars new facebook fan page :

Bk68ohlIUAA3cqV.jpg
 
For fellow Aussies:

SKY News will have Live coverage of the Oscar Pistorius verdict beginning tomorrow, on two channels.
Australia’s Public Affairs Channel (A-PAC) will partner with E News Channel Africa for a Live simulcast from 2pm* Thursday outside the North Gauteng High Court and Pistorius’ uncle’s home.

From 5pm* rolling coverage as judgement gets underway with Judge Thokozile Masipa and comprehensive analysis with specialist reporters Karyn Maughan and Annika Larsen.

SKY News National will also have regular updates throughout NewsDay and during the evenings programming.

On Friday September 12, Live rolling coverage of the court proceedings continues on A-PAC from 2pm*.

As the final verdict nears SKY News National will join the simulcast with Live coverage including post verdict reaction.

*All times are AEST

http://www.tvtonight.com.au/2014/09/sky-news-oscar-pistorius-verdict.html
 
I would go with:

1. Guilty of murder - sentence mitigated down from mandatory 15 year sentence due to disability
2. Guilty of possession of illegal ammunition - non custodial sentence consisting of a fine
3. Guilty of restaurant shooting - non custodial sentence consisting of a fine
4. Not guilty of shooting through sun roof of car

I strongly believe in the prosecution's case, but one thing that has always been in the back of my mind is that the shooting took place at 3:17AM and the first call was at 3:19AM. That's not enough time for OP to do everything he said he did and the PT didn't really address this to my knowledge. Masipa also picked up on this. If she takes this into account, I could see the murder charge being reduced to CH.

What happened to the six minutes I just pointed out to you that he had between 3:17 and when the Stander's actually arrived at approximately 3:23 when he was just then carrying RS down the stairs?
 
I would go with:

1. Guilty of murder - sentence mitigated down from mandatory 15 year sentence due to disability
2. Guilty of possession of illegal ammunition - non custodial sentence consisting of a fine
3. Guilty of restaurant shooting - non custodial sentence consisting of a fine
4. Not guilty of shooting through sun roof of car

I strongly believe in the prosecution's case, but one thing that has always been in the back of my mind is that the shooting took place at 3:17AM and the first call was at 3:19AM. That's not enough time for OP to do everything he said he did and the PT didn't really address this to my knowledge. Masipa also picked up on this. If she takes this into account, I could see the murder charge being reduced to CH.

Good luck with that. It would seem that OP is dreaming of the same. But it is not realistic.
 
This is interesting, an interview with her friend Kerry Smith, a fellow student who became close friend when they were studying law. Steenkamp was said to have been one of the top ten in class and the friend details her ambitions and strong work ethic.

It talks about how both were in abusive relationships and even names jockey and ex boyfriend, Wayne Agrella, as the subject of the reports.

Smith ends with article with the telling observation that Steenkamp was "not a quiet person" and would have, "screamed...let rip, she would not have kept her mouth shut at all."

Agreed, if there was a study 99% of test subjects would have made noise, conversed or shouted when faced with a panicked partner, and obviously later would have screamed when they had their arm effectively amputated in an enclosed box.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-28349666
 
What happened to the six minutes I just pointed out to you that he had between 3:17 and when the Stander's actually arrived at approximately 3:23 when he was just then carrying RS down the stairs?

I do remember our discussion on this, I just hope Masipa and her assessors see it the same way you explained it the other day....that's partly why I'm still on the fence between whether Masipa will rule this as a murder or CH.
 
Something to read while you're waiting ... an analysis of OP's bail statement.

http://.blogspot.com.au/2013/02/oscar-pistorius--by.html
 

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