Hurricane Katrina to possibly become a Cat 4

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Dark Knight

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I wanted to start a new thread since Katrina may become extremely dangerous as a Cat 3 or 4, and some people may ignore the one started when it was a tropical depression:


ap120a.gif

South Florida Cleans Up After Katrina


By JOHN PAIN, Associated Press Writer


Utility crews scrambled to restore power to more than 1 million customers Friday as Hurricane Katrina, blamed for six deaths and miles of flooded streets in South Florida, threatened the state with an encore visit.

Katrina was churning in the Gulf of Mexico and on a path to make landfall anywhere from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana as early as Monday, possibly as a Category 4 storm.

"I'm so sick of this," said Pat Jackson, an interior decorator in Homestead. Her apartment building was flooded with several inches of water during Katrina's first pass across the state.

"It seems like every other week or month another one comes," she said.

Scenes of Katrina's impact were everywhere Friday — work crews sawing trees crippled by the winds; people canoeing through inundated streets; a 727 cargo plane pushed along a runway fence; sailboats resting askew on a sandy shore.

Florida has been hit by six hurricanes since last August, and the Panhandle was slammed by Hurricane Ivan last year, and then again by Hurricane Dennis this year, both Category 3 storms.

On Friday, Gov. Jeb Bush urged residents in many of the same Panhandle areas to monitor the storm and make necessary preparations. If Katrina hit at Category 4 strength, as forecasters say it could, it would mean sustained winds topping 130 mph.

Bush said he had asked for federal disaster assistance for Miami-Dade and Broward counties, where some residents said they were caught off guard by the gathering storm.

"Maybe we can get rid of the phrase minimal hurricane," state meteorologist Ben Nelson said Friday. "There is no such thing as a minimal hurricane."

The death toll grew to six, including three people killed by falling trees and two boaters who tried to ride out the storm in their crafts. Authorities had said the toll was seven, but revised it to six after saying one death was not storm-related.

Risk modeling company AIR Worldwide estimated insured losses from Katrina's first landfall could approach $600 million.

Katrina, the second hurricane to hit Florida this year, grew from a disorganized 50-mph tropical storm to one with 92-mph wind gusts in a few hours Thursday.

It pummeled South Florida with blankets of rain and howling winds. Darkened skies lit up with popping power transformers, trees flew across streets and rain swamped some neighborhoods with water up to waist high.

"We had wind coming from two directions. It sounded like a super wind tunnel," said Scott Resnick, who rode out the storm in Hallandale Beach.

As it moved out into the Gulf on Friday, Katrina became a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds and lashed the Florida Keys with strong outer bands that could dump up from 15 to 20 inches over the island chain.

At 5 p.m. EDT, it was about 70 miles west-northwest of Key West, moving toward the west-southwest near 8 mph. A gradual turn toward the west was expected Saturday.

The National Hurricane Center said Katrina was expected to strengthen significantly over warm Gulf waters and warned residents from Florida to southeast Louisiana to be ready.



Katrina's first swipe across Florida left about 50 homes flooded in Homestead and 40 mobile homes damaged in Broward County.

At a 12-unit apartment complex in Davie, Beverly Johnson, 41, and her 7-year-old son used pots to hold all the dripping water after their roof caved in during the storm.

"Water came in and then the ceiling collapsed," she said. "We were really shaken up last night."

Street flooding and debris strewn on the roads made many streets impassable, a situation made worse by power outages that affected street lights.

An overpass under construction in Miami-Dade County collapsed onto a highway. No injuries were reported, but the freeway — a main east-west thoroughfare — was closed for 20 blocks.

David Carter rode out the storm in his Coconut Grove home, listening as avocados were torn off branches and hitting the structure.

"It sounded like tiny bowling balls hitting the top of the roof and rolling down," he said. "You just heard the big thud."

The hurricane hindered the Coast Guard's search early Friday for a family of five who went out on their 24-foot pleasure boat. A Coast Guard helicopter finally found Edward and Tina Larsen and their three children. Their conditions were not immediately known.

The hurricane emptied the usually bustling streets of Miami Beach. The city is hosting celebrities and partygoers in town for Sunday's MTV Video Music Awards. MTV called off its pre-awards festivities Thursday and Friday.

And in the face of all the damage, some people took advantage of the wild weather to have fun. Surfers hit South Florida beaches Thursday ahead of the storm, and after it passed Friday.

"It's like a one-day vacation," said 17-year-old surfer Chris Dobson in Deerfield Beach. "We're just hoping to catch a few good waves, and have some fun out here while we can."

___

On the Net: National Hurricane Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
 
We lucked out here in West Palm Beach...only got a few showers and a little wind from Katrina. The folks in the panhandle will be in my thoughts and prayers.
 
Hurricane Update:

Miami- A hurricane watch was issued Saturday for the eastern half of the Louisiana coast, including New Orleans. That means hurricane conditions are possible by late Sunday and the watch will likely be extended to other areas.

http://www.klfy.com/Global/story.asp?S=3762373


Check out the doppler radar pic at the bottom of the article. Huge storm!!!!
 
It missed us on the Treasure Coast (just north of Palm Beach). We are thankful and will be watching and praying for those in the Lousiana and Mississippi areas.
 
Hurricane Katrina could be one of the worst hurricanes to ever come ashore on the gulf coast. 12 foot waves are already approaching the North Gulf Coast, and Katrina is still 360 miles away, w/115mph winds, and moving at 7 mph. I will be very surprised if it isn't Category Four by tomorrow night. .

AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST OR ABOUT 360 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

KATRINA HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH.
THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES. NOAA BUOY 42003 LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 54 MPH WITH A GUST TO 64 MPH AND
25-FOOT WAVES.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 944 MB...27.88 INCHES.

DATA FROM BUOYS INDICATE THAT 12-FOOT WAVES ARE ALREADY APPROACHING
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
5 INCHES OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HEAVY RAINS FROM KATRINA
SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SUNDAY EVENING.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.

REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...24.8 N... 85.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 944 MB.

Category Three Hurricane:
Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt or 178-209 km/hr). Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large trees blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering from floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required. Hurricanes Jeanne and Ivan of 2004 were Category Three hurricanes when they made landfall in Florida and in Alabama, respectively.

Category Four Hurricane:
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km). Hurricane Charley of 2004 was a Category Four hurricane made landfall in Charlotte County, Florida with winds of 150 mph. Hurricane Dennis of 2005 struck the island of Cuba as a Category Four hurricane.
 
A hurricane hitting New Orleans would destroy the city and drown everyone who doesn't evacuate. I used to live there and was crazy for ever staying during storms. The city is 40 ft below sea level. Very scary. Alot of people wont leave because of looting. Keep us in MS and LA in your prayers please.
 
2sisters said:
A hurricane hitting New Orleans would destroy the city and drown everyone who doesn't evacuate. I used to live there and was crazy for ever staying during storms. The city is 40 ft below sea level. Very scary. Alot of people wont leave because of looting. Keep us in MS and LA in your prayers please.

I just heard Kathleen Blanco issue an urgent warning for people to leave. They are not heeding and thinking hurricane party. I remember what happened during Hurricane Camille and it was devastating. I believe NO is 12 feet below sea level which is plenty enough. The storm surge alone would drown many as Lake Ponchartrain overflows its banks. I am originally from Louisiana and if you want to speak low level this is the State . Almost every road in s. Louisiana will flood with minimal amounts of rain. Read my article above....18-22 feet of water in New Orleans proper. I am praying as I have lots of family and friends....many from WS who live there. I have emailed the ones I know from WS and hope they are leaving.Most of my family is Lafayette,Lake Charles,New Iberia which will be hit but not with the same devastation as New Orleans. Stay safe!!!!!
 
From Accuweather.com: Forecasters here at AccuWeather.com are warning that the storm will almost certainly strengthen to a category 4 storm before it makes landfall, and it is possible that Katrina could top the scale as a category 5 storm before hitting land. Already some counties in southern Louisiana are under mandatory evacuation orders. Storm shelters are being opened and Search and Rescue teams are being activated in Louisiana and Mississippi as preparations are made to deal with the impact of the gathering storm.

Of particular concern to Emergency Management is the city of New Orleans. The city lies below sea level and although protected from normal tides and waves by Flood Walls is at risk from the huge storm surge that is expected to accompany Katrina. A storm surge of 10 to 15 feet is possible, and it is possible that the entire city will need to be evacuated. This would be no easy task as the population of the metropolitan area is some three million.
AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Joe Bastardi is also worried about the heavy rain that will accompany Katrina as it tracks northwards next week. The remains of the storm are expected to end up over Pennsylvania or Ohio by Thursday. As it tracks northwards on Tuesday and Wednesday across the Southern Appalachians it could dump up to ten inches of rain. Tornadoes are also reported to be a concern as the storm begins to push onshore through Monday.

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/storms.asp?ocean=atlantic&storm=Katrina&imagetype=headline&partner=accuweather
 
The 100,000 or so persons in New Orleans alone who cannot afford to evacuate need our prayers. I am sure there are many others all along the coastline in the same situation. Animals too. Godspeed to them all.
 
From Weather.com:

Hurricane Katrina is in a region of light wind shear, and is therefore anticipated to gather further strength, becoming a strong Category 4 storm prior to landfall.

The Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Hurricane Hunters and NOAA aircraft have been flying nonstop into Hurricane Katrina on Saturday and they will continue until it makes landfall. They have found a strengthening system all day Saturday with the pressure going from 950 mb down to 939 mb tonight with an increasing wind field and tighter eyewall. This means this system is getting stronger and extremely dangerous!
 
At 1:00AM CDT---This is beginning to look really bad for the Gulf Coast

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 145
MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
TODAY.


HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

Katrina could become a Category 5 Hurricane

Category Four Hurricane:
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km). Hurricane Charley of 2004 was a Category Four hurricane made landfall in Charlotte County, Florida with winds of 150 mph. Hurricane Dennis of 2005 struck the island of Cuba as a Category Four hurricane.


Category Five Hurricane:
Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr). Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required. Only 3 Category Five Hurricanes have made landfall in the United States since records began: The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, Hurricane Camille (1969), and Hurricane Andrew in August, 1992. The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane struck the Florida Keys with a minimum pressure of 892 mb--the lowest pressure ever observed in the United States. Hurricane Camille struck the Mississippi Gulf Coast causing a 25-foot storm surge, which inundated Pass Christian. Hurricane Andrew of 1992 made landfall over southern Miami-Dade County, Florida causing 26.5 billion dollars in losses--the costliest hurricane on record. In addition, Hurricane Gilbert of 1988 was a Category Five hurricane at peak intensity and is the strongest Atlantic tropical cyclone on record with a minimum pressure of 888 mb.
 

Thank you for all that timely info, Buzz & Dark Knight - What a pair of sweethearts you are! :)

I just heard on MBNBC @ 5:25 am - Katrina is currently a Cat 4 - still increasing in strength and is expected to hit the coastline as a Cat 5 hurricane. Absolutely terrifying! I sure hope they're wrong!!

As a resident of Florida that experienced 3 of the 4 dangerous and damaging hurricanes last season - none of them were a CAT 5.

I really hope residents of New Orleans and surrounding areas east & west of there are taking this hurricane seriously and have evacuated already. This is not "party time."

Who are our websleuthers in the danger zone? Anyone know?

My prayers are with all those in Katrina's path.

13th Juror
 
A graphic depicting Katrina's risk to lives and property:

http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&myadc=0&article=1

ETA: And one indicating the risk of a direct hit, geographically:

http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&myadc=0&traveler=0&article=0

Also from Accuweather: Katrina, currently rated a Category 4 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale, could strengthen to perhaps a Category 5 storm as it turns more northward over the open Gulf of Mexico Sunday. Outer squalls and high surf will begin to make their presence felt late Sunday in coastal areas of Louisiana and Mississippi, then increasingly severe winds, rains and tides will build ahead of the storm Sunday night. AccuWeather.com's latest assessment is for landfall of Katrina's eye by noon Monday in southeastern Louisiana.
 
By was of comparison, Hurricane Hugo was at a Min. pressure of 918 mb and Hurricane Andrew was at 922 mb. (Andrew was stronger upon landfall than Hugo, however, as a Cat 5, whereas Hugo was a 4.)
 
The Weather Channel is reporting that Katrina is now a Category 5 hurricane with 160mph winds and a central pressure down to 915mb, and it STILL has a ways to go over some very warm water.
 


Just as a side note ...

Orlando Salinas, reporting for FOX News - he's on Dauphin Island, Alabama.

Summarized ...

There are some 5000 oil platforms in the Gulf Coast area (AL & Louisana) that provide approximately one-third of all the oil & natural gas that comes into the U.S.. As about one-third of those 5000 platforms are very old & cannot withstand the force of this hurricane, oil industry experts expect & predict MANY of them will come down.

If we think gas & oil prices are bad now (and they are!) .. Just wait until after Katrina hits those platforms. This will affect everybody - all of us - big time.

If anyone has a gas reading close to empty - I suggest you may want to fill up your tank today.


13th Juror
 
Do we have any members who live in the Nawlins area? If so, please head for the hills!! This is one catastrophic storm. I live in NW Florida which has been hit by too many hurricanes in the past few years. My prayers are with all of you who will be affected. God bless you and keep you safe!!
 
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