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  1. #1
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    Flu pandemic could kill 150 million, UN warns

    A global flu pandemic could kill as many as 150 million people if the world fails to prepare for an expected mutation of the bird flu virus enabling it to spread from human to human, the United Nations said on Thursday. Dr. David Nabarro of the Geneva-based World Health Organization said U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan has asked him to head up a worldwide drive to contain the current bird flu pandemic and prepare for its possible jump to humans.


    If the virus spreads among humans, the quality of the world response will determine whether it ends up killing 5 million or as many as 150 million, Nabarro told a news conference.

    The last flu pandemic, which broke out in 1918 at the end of World War One, killed more than 40 million people and drove home the vulnerability of a world where borders had less and less meaning, he said.

    It seems very likely the H5N1 bird flu virus will soon change into a variant able to be transmitted among humans and it would be a big mistake to ignore that danger, he warned.

    "I am almost certain there will be another pandemic soon," Nabarro said.


    Full Story

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by Casshew
    A global flu pandemic could kill as many as 150 million people if the world fails to prepare for an expected mutation of the bird flu virus enabling it to spread from human to human, the United Nations said on Thursday. Dr. David Nabarro of the Geneva-based World Health Organization said U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan has asked him to head up a worldwide drive to contain the current bird flu pandemic and prepare for its possible jump to humans.


    If the virus spreads among humans, the quality of the world response will determine whether it ends up killing 5 million or as many as 150 million, Nabarro told a news conference.

    The last flu pandemic, which broke out in 1918 at the end of World War One, killed more than 40 million people and drove home the vulnerability of a world where borders had less and less meaning, he said.

    It seems very likely the H5N1 bird flu virus will soon change into a variant able to be transmitted among humans and it would be a big mistake to ignore that danger, he warned.

    "I am almost certain there will be another pandemic soon," Nabarro said.


    Full Story
    There was a lengthy segment on recently that traced some of the deaths in China from the bird flu. Out of 3 in one family that contracted it, one girl died, one girl survived with no residual problems, and one son survived but it permanently destroyed any chance that he will be able to live anything resembling a normal life, he's basically disabled for life, which probably won't be that long. They say it just a matter of time before it mutates with a transmittable flu, and then the pandemic will begin.

  3. #3
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    According to ABC Radio News, they corrected themselves and said 7.5 million was more realisitic of a number.


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  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dark Knight
    According to ABC Radio News, they corrected themselves and said 7.5 million was more realisitic of a number.
    How comforting.

  5. #5
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    I wouldn't worry about it. It will just be a really bad flu. People who are immune comprimised will suffer the most. And people who live in impoverished conditions who can't get help. I think we, who live in a modern society shouldn't worry. If you get sick just stay home to prevent spread and wash your hands and don't stress, that's the healthiest thing you can do. Stressing brings down your immunity.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by MistyM
    I wouldn't worry about it. It will just be a really bad flu. People who are immune comprimised will suffer the most. And people who live in impoverished conditions who can't get help. I think we, who live in a modern society shouldn't worry. If you get sick just stay home to prevent spread and wash your hands and don't stress, that's the healthiest thing you can do. Stressing brings down your immunity.
    MistyM, make that a really, really, really, really, bad flu. The young man that I mentioned that survived was left permanentlly with about 20% of his lung capacity, and he was very healthy going in; he gets exhausted just getting out of bed.. They don't actually know why it is selective as to how it affects certain healthy individuals more than others. It is a very deadly flu; the survival rate isn't that good.

  7. #7
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    On the World Health Organization website http://www.who.int/en/you can follow the updates from the people in charge of containing it, and even read the minutes of their meetings. Nothing is blanked out.

    I followed the SARS outbreak on there, and it was the most up to date and complete information out there. I was actually impressed, and it takes a lot to impress me lol.

  8. #8
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    The Spanish flu in 1910 killed many healthy young men........

    This bird "flu" can be transmitted in just hours from overseas to North America. Just one person passing through a crowded airport.......

    This flu has already "mutated" from birds to humans and could further mutate which will frustrate any attempts at a vaccine.

    Quarantine will be required, hospital wards will be overflowed, health care will be overburdened, there will not be any vaccines(if possible) for months, people will not go into areas where others go, companies will shut down, schools will shut down, and the stock of tamiflu will be worth its weight in gold........if production can be even achieved to produce enough

    There will be no flights anywhere, health care workers and other officials will be the first to get the vaccine and treatment, mask and gloves will be required for even a routine visit to a public place.

    This is not going to be a bad flu, but a flu that will have reprecussions worldwide in mortality and the ecomony.......

    7.5 million deaths worldwide seems a very conserative estimate.....

    SARS was and is a walk in the park compared to this flu.......it will take more then washing your hands to get past this........

    Who knows if this flu will only be one strain, it could mutate into several strains, all requiring a vaccine and when that particular vaccine is produced, the flu could have mutate already...........

    Scary stuff, but it is overdue to happen...........

  9. #9
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    Evidently the human strain H5N1 likely to cause the pandemic is showing to be resistant to Tamiflu. But drug companies are being encouraged to make a large stock of Relenza, another antiviral.

    http://cnn.com/2005/WORLD/asiapcf/09...eut/index.html

  10. #10
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    Statins are somewhat protective, if you have taken them for a month or so before getting the flu. Maybe it's time we all have our cholesterol levels taken now, and get "on them"?
    My mom had the "Spanish flu", it was 1918, every door had a crepe, it wasn't a cough and bounce back . She was in a coma for days, her legs turned black, her lung capacity was forever diminished leaving her open to a bout of pneumonia each year for her entire 77. Catching a rather mild flu eventually was the end of her. Flu shots in the elderly are likely less than 25 % effective, no matter what your doc tells you. It's frightening, and horrible, but out of our control.


  11. #11
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    There were a couple of episodes of the old Fox tv series MILENNIUM that dealt with a bird-based disease causing an epidemic in America. In that case, the virus bore a resemblance to Mad Cow Disease and Ebolla, in that eating infected chickens and chicken byproducts was the trigger, and the first symptom was nosebleeds, followed by hemorraghic fever/fits/seizures. It was pretty grim and extremely believable.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by CyberLaw
    The Spanish flu in 1910 killed many healthy young men........

    This bird "flu" can be transmitted in just hours from overseas to North America. Just one person passing through a crowded airport.......

    This flu has already "mutated" from birds to humans and could further mutate which will frustrate any attempts at a vaccine.

    Quarantine will be required, hospital wards will be overflowed, health care will be overburdened, there will not be any vaccines(if possible) for months, people will not go into areas where others go, companies will shut down, schools will shut down, and the stock of tamiflu will be worth its weight in gold........if production can be even achieved to produce enough

    There will be no flights anywhere, health care workers and other officials will be the first to get the vaccine and treatment, mask and gloves will be required for even a routine visit to a public place.

    This is not going to be a bad flu, but a flu that will have reprecussions worldwide in mortality and the ecomony.......

    7.5 million deaths worldwide seems a very conserative estimate.....

    SARS was and is a walk in the park compared to this flu.......it will take more then washing your hands to get past this........

    Who knows if this flu will only be one strain, it could mutate into several strains, all requiring a vaccine and when that particular vaccine is produced, the flu could have mutate already...........

    Scary stuff, but it is overdue to happen...........
    The only reason I exist is because my grandmother's first husband died during the Spanish Flu epidemic and she needed help to support her and her three young children, so she married my grandfather.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by sissi
    Statins are somewhat protective, if you have taken them for a month or so before getting the flu. Maybe it's time we all have our cholesterol levels taken now, and get "on them"?
    My mom had the "Spanish flu", it was 1918, every door had a crepe, it wasn't a cough and bounce back . She was in a coma for days, her legs turned black, her lung capacity was forever diminished leaving her open to a bout of pneumonia each year for her entire 77. Catching a rather mild flu eventually was the end of her. Flu shots in the elderly are likely less than 25 % effective, no matter what your doc tells you. It's frightening, and horrible, but out of our control.
    My mother lost a 16 year old older sister to the Spanish flu during that same time.

    If the bird flu mutates and begans to be transmitted by humans, there will be a very serious problem as they won't be able to successfully contain it. Also, if it can mutate/combine with another virus, it will most likely mutate with multiple viruses, making it virtually impossible to contain, and difficult to combat. Scary to think that we could have another Aids like virus. Despite the sophistication of modern-day medicines, there seems to be even more sophisticated viruses appearing that present major challenges to disease control agencies.

  14. #14
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    Just to add a little real life story to this:

    A home for the elderly, I think it is a nursing home is under a no visitors, doors are locked policy.

    Several residents have died in the last few days, another two yesterday....because of a mystery flu like illness that has yet to be identified.

    No one can leave and no one can go in, except Government Officials.

    It is not SARS, or the avian flu, nor it is any type of flu ever seen before because there are no test to identify it.

    I read an article today, that it just won't be one type of antiviral that will be required in the event of a pandemic, but several may be needed taken at the same time, and who knows if the disease will mutate making any any anti virals not effective.........

    You think New Orleans was bad when it came to class, just wait and see what will happen when only the rich can afford the anti-virals that can save their lives and that of their kids. The rich can and will pay anthing especially when it comes to being "treated" like everyone else.

    The Black market and Doctors who will offer the limited supply of anti-virals for a price that only the rich can afford.........

  15. #15
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    Bush seeks military option on bird flu

    WASHINGTON -- President Bush, stirring debate on the worrisome possibility of a bird flu pandemic, suggested dispatching American troops to enforce quarantines in any areas with outbreaks of the killer virus

    http://www.boston.com/news/nation/ar...+National+News

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