10-03-2016, 07:37 AM #1
Hurricane Matthew - Sept-Oct 2016
Hurricane Matthew Less Than 24 Hours From Catastrophic Haiti Strike; Hurricane Warnings in Jamaica, Cuba and Bahamas
Oct 3 2016 06:30 AM EDT
Hurricane Matthew is less than 24 hours from delivering a potentially catastrophic strike on Haiti, and will also strike parts of Jamaica, eastern Cuba and the Bahamas before flirting with parts of the U.S. East Coast into this weekend.
Hurricane warnings continue in Jamaica, Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern Bahamas. Hurricane watches remain in effect for the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Cuban province of Camaguey, and the central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San Salvador and Cat Island.
Projected Path and Intensity
Jamaica: Late Monday/early Tuesday
Haiti/Dominican Republic: Late Monday/Tuesday
Eastern Cuba: Tuesday/Tuesday night
Southeast & central Bahamas/Turks & Caicos: Tuesday afternoon into at least Wednesday night
10-03-2016, 07:42 AM #2
10-03-2016, 08:42 AM #3
Haiti braces for Hurricane Matthew's flash floods, violent winds; 40 inches of rain expected in some areas
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS Monday, October 3, 2016, 8:10 AM
At 5 a.m. ET on Monday, Matthew was a category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 130 mph, the National Hurricane Center said. It was 230 miles south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, which was already being swamped with torrents of rain, and it was moving north at about 6 mph.
The National Hurricane Center called Matthew "extremely dangerous," and conditions look favorable for it to maintain its strength, said Michael Lowry, a hurricane specialist for The Weather Channel.
“Wherever that center passes close to would see the worst winds and that’s what’s projected to happen for the western tip of Haiti,” said John Cangilosi, a hurricane specialist at the U.S. center. “There is a big concern for rains there and also a big concern for storm surge.”
Matthew is one of the most powerful Atlantic hurricanes in recent history and briefly reached the top classification, Category 5, becoming the strongest hurricane in the region since Felix in 2007. The hurricane center said the storm appeared to be on track to pass east of Florida through the Bahamas, but it was too soon to predict with certainty whether it would threaten any spot on the U.S. East Coast.
10-03-2016, 11:45 PM #4
Keep an eye on Hurricane Matthew
The most accurate hurricane model just changed at 11 tongiht, and it is going slow so that the system that was gonna push it east is gonna be gone , and there is a high that is gonna make it hard for it to go as west as they thought earlier
Statistically this is the most accurate one -- a lot of the other ones are ..........................
Last edited by CARIIS; 10-04-2016 at 12:05 AM.
10-04-2016, 12:12 AM #5
I hope everyone who is impacted by the hurricane stays safe and follows official protocol to remain so.
10-04-2016, 01:39 AM #6
10-04-2016, 06:42 AM #7
Hurricane Matthew Roars Ashore in Haiti as U.S. Evacuations Feared
BREAKING NEWS OCT 4 2016, 6:05 AM ET
The most powerful Atlantic tropical storm in almost a decade was coming ashore early Tuesday in Haiti, potentially delivering yet another devastating humanitarian disaster to the poorest nation in the Western Hemisphere.
As of 5 a.m. ET, Hurricane Matthew was a Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The area most at risk of being affected by Matthew is the southeastern coast, anywhere from Florida up through North Carolina. Both Florida Gov. Rick Scott and North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory activated states of emergency on Monday, covering 66 counties in North Carolina and all counties in Florida.
"Right now, the projected path is a little off the coast, but it can change at a moment's notice," Scott said at a news conference Monday. "When that happens, we're not going to have a lot of time to get ready."
10-04-2016, 03:13 PM #8Registered User
- Join Date
- Oct 2014
- State of Bliss
I'm in Myrtle Beach trying to gently persuade family members to make a trip to my house in Charlotte until the storm blows over. We are literally on the beach. After living through Hurricane Charley, it's not so much the storm, it's having no electric, gasoline, etc. after the skies clear.
10-04-2016, 03:15 PM #9
FYI - In about 5 minutes NASA TV will have a live stream from the International Space Station of hurricane Matthew from space.
Hereabouts - http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/nasatv/#public
10-04-2016, 06:02 PM #10I am polka dot
- Join Date
- Aug 2003
- Left Coast USA
In a Tuesday afternoon press conference, Gov. Nikki Haley said a complete evacuation of the state's coast will take place on Wednesday – 1.1 million people in all.
"Our goal is to make sure you get 100 miles away from the coast," Haley said.
After a state of emergency was declared, Haley's evacuation order will also close all schools and government offices in the counties that'll be cleared out before Matthew arrives.
10-04-2016, 08:30 PM #11
The eye of Hurricane Matthew is not as distinct as it was earlier
today, and the change in the overall pattern suggests that the
cyclone is a little weaker due to the interaction with the nearby
high terrain. The initial intensity has been lowered to 120 kt and
some slight additional weakening could occur tonight while Matthew's
circulation continues to interact with Cuba and Hispaniola. Once
Matthew moves into the Bahamas, the environment is favorable for the
hurricane to maintain category 4 status for the next 2 days. Some
weakening is anticipated beyond 3 days due to an increase of the
Earlier reconnaissance aircraft fixes, satellite and radar data from
Cuba indicate that Matthew is moving toward the north or 360 degrees
at about 8 kt. The hurricane continues to be steered by the flow
around the western edge of a subtropical ridge. Most of the global
models build the ridge westward, and this pattern should force the
hurricane to turn toward the northwest across the Bahamas and to the
waters just east of Florida. The most interesting change this
afternoon is that the ECMWF has forecast a stronger western Atlantic
ridge than in previous runs. This evolution resulted in an
additional leftward shift of the ECMWF track and consequently, the
NHC forecast has also been adjusted to the left, necessitating the
southward extension of the Hurricane Watch in Florida. Beyond 3
days, the ridge is forecast to move eastward, allowing Matthew to
turn northward and then northeastward.
1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in
portions of the warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas.
Please consult statements from the meteorological services and other
government officials in those countries.
2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel
to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through
South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to estimate impacts this
far in advance. For example, only a small deviation of the track to
the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major
hurricane onshore, while a small deviation to the right could keep
all of the hurricane-force winds offshore. It will likely take
another day or so for the potential impacts of Matthew in the United
States to clarify.
3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of
Florida north of the current Hurricane Watch area, Georgia, South
Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even
if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to
specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on the
remainder of the U.S. East Coast farther to the north. At a
minimum, very dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely
along much of the U.S. East Coast later this week and weekend.
10-04-2016, 09:08 PM #12
Thanks for the wunderground links, CARIIS.
Future updates are greatly appreciated.
Some of us WS-ers are in some very precarious paths!
Yowza!- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
"Look, if any of us wanted to mind our own business, we wouldn't be here" (carbuff 8/11/13)
This post reflects my constitutionally-protected opinion. Please do not copy it anywhere else outside of the WebSleuth forum
10-04-2016, 09:12 PM #13
God from space he is just handsome!!!! A beatiful hurricane! Stunning 700 miles wide!
Last edited by CARIIS; 10-04-2016 at 09:20 PM.
10-04-2016, 09:33 PM #14
new ECMWF high probability cluster now shows ALL likely paths of the storm then hitting Florida, before moving north and hugging the south eastern coast of the United States.
direct hit on Florida later this week is now the most likely scenario. It shows the storm turning west after it passes Cuba, before making landfall near Orlando.
will make landfall in Florida on Friday at Noon. The NOAA have released their latest Hurricane track for Matthew, and the cone IS expected to come closer to central Florida.
This is the best one European ECMWF
The European forecast model already kicking America’s ...... just improved
Matthew will change course and score a direct hit on Florida, according to two new British weather forecasting models.
ahhhhhhhhh I just looked at the most reliable (statistically) model and it has it landfalling in Fort Peirce
By JASON TAYLOR
The European forecast model already
ECMWF performs about three percent better in its five-day forecasts across a number of variables.
of the world’s other global forecasting systems, including the North American GFS model.
most overt demonstration of the European model’s superiority came in the week before Hurricane Sandy’s devastating landfall in 2012. Out of more than a dozen computer forecasts, only it showed the storm veering along a path toward the East Coast of the United States instead of staying harmlessly out to sea.
“What the European modeling community is doing is just amazing,” Ryan Maue,
The new upgrade brings about the greatest improvement through the second way, resolution. The model operators have tripled the number of locations in their three-dimensional grid around the world, at the surface and in the atmosphere, for which solved equations produce variables such as wind, temperature, and air pressure.
Last edited by CARIIS; 10-04-2016 at 09:56 PM.
10-04-2016, 09:55 PM #15Registered User
- Join Date
- Jan 2004
I'm in Savannah - a bit worried about what to do if this hits. Is there anyone in this community from Savannah?