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  1. #1
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    Hurricane Matthew - Sept-Oct 2016

    Hurricane Matthew Less Than 24 Hours From Catastrophic Haiti Strike; Hurricane Warnings in Jamaica, Cuba and Bahamas
    Published:
    Oct 3 2016 06:30 AM EDT



    Hurricane Matthew is less than 24 hours from delivering a potentially catastrophic strike on Haiti, and will also strike parts of Jamaica, eastern Cuba and the Bahamas before flirting with parts of the U.S. East Coast into this weekend.

    Hurricane warnings continue in Jamaica, Haiti, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern Bahamas. Hurricane watches remain in effect for the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Cuban province of Camaguey, and the central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San Salvador and Cat Island.


    Projected Path and Intensity

    Jamaica: Late Monday/early Tuesday
    Haiti/Dominican Republic: Late Monday/Tuesday
    Eastern Cuba: Tuesday/Tuesday night
    Southeast & central Bahamas/Turks & Caicos: Tuesday afternoon into at least Wednesday night

  2. #2
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    Hurricane Matthew



    More maps at link^^^

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    Haiti braces for Hurricane Matthew's flash floods, violent winds; 40 inches of rain expected in some areas
    THE ASSOCIATED PRESS Monday, October 3, 2016, 8:10 AM

    At 5 a.m. ET on Monday, Matthew was a category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 130 mph, the National Hurricane Center said. It was 230 miles south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, which was already being swamped with torrents of rain, and it was moving north at about 6 mph.

    The National Hurricane Center called Matthew "extremely dangerous," and conditions look favorable for it to maintain its strength, said Michael Lowry, a hurricane specialist for The Weather Channel.

    “Wherever that center passes close to would see the worst winds and that’s what’s projected to happen for the western tip of Haiti,” said John Cangilosi, a hurricane specialist at the U.S. center. “There is a big concern for rains there and also a big concern for storm surge.”

    Matthew is one of the most powerful Atlantic hurricanes in recent history and briefly reached the top classification, Category 5, becoming the strongest hurricane in the region since Felix in 2007. The hurricane center said the storm appeared to be on track to pass east of Florida through the Bahamas, but it was too soon to predict with certainty whether it would threaten any spot on the U.S. East Coast.

    http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/...ibbean-n658311

  4. #4
    CARIIS's Avatar
    CARIIS is offline Professor Emeritus-Institute of Typing/Spelling (Duke University)
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    Keep an eye on Hurricane Matthew

    The most accurate hurricane model just changed at 11 tongiht, and it is going slow so that the system that was gonna push it east is gonna be gone , and there is a high that is gonna make it hard for it to go as west as they thought earlier

    Statistically this is the most accurate one -- a lot of the other ones are ..........................

    https://www.wunderground.com/hurrica...-Storm-Matthew
    Last edited by CARIIS; 10-04-2016 at 12:05 AM.

  5. #5
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    Hi CARIIS

    I hope everyone who is impacted by the hurricane stays safe and follows official protocol to remain so.

  6. #6
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    CARIIS is offline Professor Emeritus-Institute of Typing/Spelling (Duke University)
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    Hi Gregg

    Just felt like starting a thread cause of the changes!

    Quote Originally Posted by gregjrichards View Post
    Hi CARIIS

    I hope everyone who is impacted by the hurricane stays safe and follows official protocol to remain so.

  7. #7
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    Hurricane Matthew Roars Ashore in Haiti as U.S. Evacuations Feared
    BREAKING NEWS OCT 4 2016, 6:05 AM ET



    The most powerful Atlantic tropical storm in almost a decade was coming ashore early Tuesday in Haiti, potentially delivering yet another devastating humanitarian disaster to the poorest nation in the Western Hemisphere.

    As of 5 a.m. ET, Hurricane Matthew was a Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.

    [...]

    The area most at risk of being affected by Matthew is the southeastern coast, anywhere from Florida up through North Carolina. Both Florida Gov. Rick Scott and North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory activated states of emergency on Monday, covering 66 counties in North Carolina and all counties in Florida.

    "Right now, the projected path is a little off the coast, but it can change at a moment's notice," Scott said at a news conference Monday. "When that happens, we're not going to have a lot of time to get ready."

  8. #8
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    I'm in Myrtle Beach trying to gently persuade family members to make a trip to my house in Charlotte until the storm blows over. We are literally on the beach. After living through Hurricane Charley, it's not so much the storm, it's having no electric, gasoline, etc. after the skies clear.

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    FYI - In about 5 minutes NASA TV will have a live stream from the International Space Station of hurricane Matthew from space.

    Hereabouts - http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/nasatv/#public

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    South Carolina

    In a Tuesday afternoon press conference, Gov. Nikki Haley said a complete evacuation of the state's coast will take place on Wednesday – 1.1 million people in all.

    "Our goal is to make sure you get 100 miles away from the coast," Haley said.

    After a state of emergency was declared, Haley's evacuation order will also close all schools and government offices in the counties that'll be cleared out before Matthew arrives.


  11. #11
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    CARIIS is offline Professor Emeritus-Institute of Typing/Spelling (Duke University)
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    The eye of Hurricane Matthew is not as distinct as it was earlier

    today, and the change in the overall pattern suggests that the

    cyclone is a little weaker due to the interaction with the nearby

    high terrain. The initial intensity has been lowered to 120 kt and

    some slight additional weakening could occur tonight while Matthew's

    circulation continues to interact with Cuba and Hispaniola. Once

    Matthew moves into the Bahamas, the environment is favorable for the

    hurricane to maintain category 4 status for the next 2 days. Some

    weakening is anticipated beyond 3 days due to an increase of the

    wind shear.




    Earlier reconnaissance aircraft fixes, satellite and radar data from

    Cuba indicate that Matthew is moving toward the north or 360 degrees

    at about 8 kt. The hurricane continues to be steered by the flow

    around the western edge of a subtropical ridge. Most of the global

    models build the ridge westward, and this pattern should force the

    hurricane to turn toward the northwest across the Bahamas and to the

    waters just east of Florida. The most interesting change this

    afternoon is that the ECMWF has forecast a stronger western Atlantic

    ridge than in previous runs. This evolution resulted in an

    additional leftward shift of the ECMWF track and consequently, the

    NHC forecast has also been adjusted to the left, necessitating the

    southward extension of the Hurricane Watch in Florida. Beyond 3

    days, the ridge is forecast to move eastward, allowing Matthew to

    turn northward and then northeastward.







    Key messages:




    1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm

    surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in

    portions of the warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas.

    Please consult statements from the meteorological services and other

    government officials in those countries.




    2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel

    to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through

    South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to estimate impacts this

    far in advance.
    For example, only a small deviation of the track to

    the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major

    hurricane onshore, while a small deviation to the right could keep

    all of the hurricane-force winds offshore. It will likely take

    another day or so for the potential impacts of Matthew in the United

    States to clarify.




    3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of

    Florida north of the current Hurricane Watch area, Georgia, South

    Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even

    if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to

    specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on the

    remainder of the U.S. East Coast farther to the north. At a

    minimum, very dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely

    along much of the U.S. East Coast later this week and weekend.

    https://www.wunderground.com/hurrica...-Storm-Matthew

  12. #12
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    Thanks for the wunderground links, CARIIS.
    Future updates are greatly appreciated.
    Some of us WS-ers are in some very precarious paths!
    Yowza!
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
    "Look, if any of us wanted to mind our own business, we wouldn't be here" (carbuff 8/11/13)

    This post reflects my constitutionally-protected opinion. Please do not copy it anywhere else outside of the WebSleuth forum

  13. #13
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    God from space he is just handsome!!!! A beatiful hurricane! Stunning 700 miles wide!

    http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/...004-story.html
    Last edited by CARIIS; 10-04-2016 at 09:20 PM.

  14. #14
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    new ECMWF high probability cluster now shows ALL likely paths of the storm then hitting Florida, before moving north and hugging the south eastern coast of the United States.



    direct hit on Florida later this week is now the most likely scenario. It shows the storm turning west after it passes Cuba, before making landfall near Orlando.

    will make landfall in Florida on Friday at Noon. The NOAA have released their latest Hurricane track for Matthew, and the cone IS expected to come closer to central Florida.

    This is the best one
    European ECMWF

    The European forecast model already kicking America’s ...... just improved





    Matthew will change course and score a direct hit on Florida, according to two new British weather forecasting models.



    ahhhhhhhhh I just looked at the most reliable (statistically) model and it has it landfalling in Fort Peirce






    By JASON TAYLOR



    The European forecast model already

    ECMWF performs about three percent better in its five-day forecasts across a number of variables.

    of the world’s other global forecasting systems, including the North American GFS model.

    most overt demonstration of the European model’s superiority came in the week before Hurricane Sandy’s devastating landfall in 2012. Out of more than a dozen computer forecasts, only it showed the storm veering along a path toward the East Coast of the United States instead of staying harmlessly out to sea.

    “What the European modeling community is doing is just amazing,” Ryan Maue,

    The new upgrade brings about the greatest improvement through the second way, resolution. The model operators have tripled the number of locations in their three-dimensional grid around the world, at the surface and in the atmosphere, for which solved equations produce variables such as wind, temperature, and air pressure.

    http://arstechnica.com/science/2016/03/the-european-forecast-model-already-kicking-americas-butt-just-improved/


    Last edited by CARIIS; 10-04-2016 at 09:56 PM.

  15. #15
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    I'm in Savannah - a bit worried about what to do if this hits. Is there anyone in this community from Savannah?

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