Geographic Profiling

Regarding the geographic profiling mentioned earlier, this looks very interesting:

https://tigerweb.towson.edu/moleary/profiler.html

The tool will not run properly on my system; I'm not sure if it is an incompatibility with Windows 10 or if I just don't have enough ram, etc (screen flashes several times before freezing, forces a hard reboot). If anyone could get this to run, this could be cool.
 
This site is interesting:

http://tinyurl.com/jybfdxx

Not sure if it's of any value, but it basically shows the midpoints of all points you enter. For all the points related to LISK (see map posted by BillWarnerPI on previous page of thread), it found that the midpoint was close to a Planet Fitness in Melville, NY.
 
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Serial killer should live in Queens NY central to all the activity

Do you think the perp picks the women because they are escorts and that is part of why he wants to kill them, or, does he target those women because they are easier for him to access and less likely to draw attention if they are missing?
 

I have been a long time fan of geographical profiling... which began with Dr. Rossmo's Jeopardy Surface, in conjunction with my forensic psych master's studies over a decade ago.

I did play around some with the LISK cases, which resulted in this basic map, and the basis of my free iOS SK Tracker app.

Notably, the latter has many more points than the Google Maps version, as my eventual goal was to include a means for dynamic geographic profiling. So, for example, profiling the GB4, Manorville, Cold Spring Harbor, Southern State Parkway, together, individually, or any combination thereof.

In any event, I did some manual calculations, based upon the Gilgo Beach & Manorville abduction/dump sites, with the assumption of a single killer, and the "hot spot" was Massapequa.
 
Josh and Rachel~~great show~~~great work. Kuddos to you both. Hopefully both of you will be up for a reward, just like MaM.
:goldcrown:

Please forgive me as I'm not familiar with the type of work most of these ladies were in...

A few questions/random thoughts...

Is is common to use a name other than your own in this type of business? The reason I ask, is 3 of the identified victims seem to begin with the letter "M" and I'm wondering if Amber could have possibly have gone by a name that begins with "M". Also, along those lines, if that appears to be the case, I'm wondering if someone in LISK's family (maybe mother???) name would also begin with an "M".

I also noticed a recurring theme of the number 5. As in the 500 feet distance (which I realize has been disproven.) But, it seems there were 5 in a row. 4 insiders and 1 outside (the Asian male). I'm wondering if that signifies something more. Perhaps, LISK was born out of wedlock when mother was in the same type of work and mother remarried into a family with 3 other children (females) and LISK always felt like the outsider?

Can we trace the number of victims to perhaps a phone number or address? IIRC, the victims were found in multiples of 2, 4, 2, 2 or 2, 5, 1, 2. On the A&E map~~it appears the first 2 victims were spaced apart, as if he planned to fill it in with other victims~~then 4 together, then 2 apart, and then 2 together.

IIRC, hurricane Sandy hit LI~~was there any attempt by LE to go back to the site to see if any other evidence was uncovered?

Lastly, I'm a numbers person...LOL~~so I was looking at the spacing posted by Shadowraiths. Hi Shadowraiths :seeya:!!!

Costello & Barthelemy: 0.16 mi = 257.495 m
Barthelemy & Barnes: 0.05 mi = 80.4672 m
Barnes & Waterman: 0.07 mi = 112.654 m
Waterman & John Doe: 0.28 mi = 450.616 m
John Doe & JT: 0.62 mi = 997.793 m
JT & Jane Doe 6: 1.43 mi = 2301.361 m
Jane Doe 6 & Baby Doe: 0.04 mi = 64.3737 m

So, here goes...(just approximating)

The distance between Barthelemy & Barnes was 80 meters. The distance between Jane Doe 6 and Baby Doe is 64. 80-64 = 16 meters.

The distance between Barthelemy & Barnes was 80. The distance between Barnes and Waterman is 112. 112-80 = 32.

16 x 2 = 32 coincidence? Perhaps?

32 x 2 = 64
64+12 = 80

There seems to be a pattern revolving around the number 16.

64/16=4
80/16=5
112/16=7
257/16=16.0625
450/16=28.16
except these two don't have a multiple of 16, unless there is some other multiple.....
997/16 = 62.3125
2301.361 /16 = 143.83

The first 3 are disconcerting..was there anything found at 96? Like possibly another victim? Victim #6, perhaps?? Are there 2 others at 16 and 32 meters??
 
Lastly, I'm a numbers person...LOL~~so I was looking at the spacing posted by Shadowraiths. Hi Shadowraiths :seeya:!!!

Costello & Barthelemy: 0.16 mi = 257.495 m
Barthelemy & Barnes: 0.05 mi = 80.4672 m
Barnes & Waterman: 0.07 mi = 112.654 m
Waterman & John Doe: 0.28 mi = 450.616 m
John Doe & JT: 0.62 mi = 997.793 m
JT & Jane Doe 6: 1.43 mi = 2301.361 m
Jane Doe 6 & Baby Doe: 0.04 mi = 64.3737 m

So, here goes...(just approximating)

The distance between Barthelemy & Barnes was 80 meters. The distance between Jane Doe 6 and Baby Doe is 64. 80-64 = 16 meters.

The distance between Barthelemy & Barnes was 80. The distance between Barnes and Waterman is 112. 112-80 = 32.

16 x 2 = 32 coincidence? Perhaps?

32 x 2 = 64
64+12 = 80

There seems to be a pattern revolving around the number 16.

64/16=4
80/16=5
112/16=7
257/16=16.0625
450/16=28.16
except these two don't have a multiple of 16, unless there is some other multiple.....
997/16 = 62.3125
2301.361 /16 = 143.83

The first 3 are disconcerting..was there anything found at 96? Like possibly another victim? Victim #6, perhaps?? Are there 2 others at 16 and 32 meters??
Respectfully snipped for brevity.

Yes, I'm a numbers person, too! Hi BCA :seeya:!!!

Though, I looked at it from a different perspective... that is from a geographical profiling angle, using Rossmo's Jeopardy Surface formula. If you look at it from this angle, you'll see that there are built-in limitations that are a result of Rossmo's assumptions (i.e., transportation, comfort zone, etcetera).
 
Cannot seem to find appropriate spot to park this post, hope this one is fine.
Just picking out some tidbits i found interesting in geographic profiler's link.
Wondering now how much light is available at the " dumping spot " and if perp placed the bodies in the daytime or night?
http://www.popcenter.org/library/crimeprevention/volume_04/10-Rossmo.pdf
PLACE, SPACE, AND POLICE
INVESTIGATIONS: HUNTING SERIAL
VIOLENT CRIMINALS
by
D. Kim Rossmo
Simon Fraser University
Some Police dog handlers, for instance, have noted patterns in the
escape routes and movements of offenders fleeing from the scenes of their
crimes (Eden, 1985). This predictability in the movements of those under
stress has been observed in both actual trackings of suspects and
experimental reenactments using police dog quarries. Fleeing criminals
tend to turn to the left if they are right-handed, move to the right upon
encountering obstacles, discard evidentiary items to their right and stay
near the outside walls when hiding in large buildings (Eden, 1985).
Different patterns are found when conducting passive tracks for missing
persons. Lost subjects tend to bear to the right in their wanderings, and
men seem to favor downhill paths while women and children choose uphill
routes
In an effort to focus the Hillside Strangler investigation, the Los

Angeles, CA Police Department (LAPD) attempted to determine the most
likely location of the scene of the homicides. The police knew where the
victims had been apprehended and where their bodies had been dumped,
and the distances between these two points (Gates and Shah, 1992). The
LAPD computer analysts viewed the problem in terms of Venn diagrams,
with the center of each circle representing victim availability, the circum-
ference representing offender capacity and the radius representing of-
fender ability (Holt, 1993).
Vectors drawn from the point where the victims were abducted to the
location where their bodies were found were added together to produce a
common radius, which defined a circle encompassing an area of just over
three square miles. The LAPD saturated this zone with 200 police officers
in an attempt to find the murderers. While they were not successful, it is

possible that the heavy police presence inhibited the killers, and prompted
murderer Kenneth Bianchi's move from Los Angeles to Bellingham, WA.
The center of this zone, the LAPD later found out, was not far from
co-murderer Angelo Buono's automobile upholstery shop-*advertiser censored*-residence

rbbm
 
I have been a long time fan of geographical profiling... which began with Dr. Rossmo's Jeopardy Surface, in conjunction with my forensic psych master's studies over a decade ago.

I did play around some with the LISK cases, which resulted in this basic map, and the basis of my free iOS SK Tracker app.

Notably, the latter has many more points than the Google Maps version, as my eventual goal was to include a means for dynamic geographic profiling. So, for example, profiling the GB4, Manorville, Cold Spring Harbor, Southern State Parkway, together, individually, or any combination thereof.

In any event, I did some manual calculations, based upon the Gilgo Beach & Manorville abduction/dump sites, with the assumption of a single killer, and the "hot spot" was Massapequa.

.WOW
Shadow! Great Work.
 
Wondering if the geographic profiling process is disrupted since the victims go to LISK, via B Page, as opposed to him finding the victims outside or at home?
imo.
http://www.wired.co.uk/article/mapping-murder

[h=1]How geographic profiling helps find serial criminals[/h]
Rossmo studied serial murder and quantitative geography and animal foraging patterns, among other topics. "What primarily determines where a criminal offends is where he goes when he's not offending," he explains. "Those areas make up the criminal's comfort zone and, like most people, that's where they spend most of their time. Crimes happen when they find potential targets, a victim or a shop to rob, within that area. That's why most crimes occur close to where he lives or works, an area where he grew up or previously lived, where they work or even where a relative lives."

According to Rossmo, most crimes take place close to the offender's home, often within a kilometre. As you move further away from their home, the probability they will offend drops off, a pattern called "distance decay". However, criminals are also less likely to offend very near their home, partly to protect their anonymity, an area called the "buffer zone". The balance between these two tendencies dictates where crime is most likely to occur.

There are some variations to this pattern: adult offenders tend to travel further than do juvenile offenders; robbers tend to travel longer distances than do burglars; body dumpsites tend to be further from the killer's residence than from the sites they meet their victims.
rbbm.
 
Thanks for starting this thread. This is my cup of tea!!!

I would like to post a great article re: Jessica Ridgeway I've posted here a lot, which I think I could be helpful in this discussion:

Jessica Ridgeway: Killer’s ‘awareness space’ may lead to clues
By Jefferson Dodge and Joel Dyer-
October 18, 2012
http://www.boulderweekly.com/news/j...-lsquoawareness-spacersquo-may-lead-to-clues/

I'm also making a note here to remind myself to make a post re: Rossmos's Formula and Geographic Profiling.
 
Thanks for starting this thread. This is my cup of tea!!!

I would like to post a great article re: Jessica Ridgeway I've posted here a lot, which I think I could be helpful in this discussion:

Jessica Ridgeway: Killer’s ‘awareness space’ may lead to clues
By Jefferson Dodge and Joel Dyer-
October 18, 2012
http://www.boulderweekly.com/news/j...-lsquoawareness-spacersquo-may-lead-to-clues/

I'm also making a note here to remind myself to make a post re: Rossmos's Formula and Geographic Profiling.

Interesting article, what caught my attention is where perps dispose of bodies at the outer edges of awareness space.

A person’s, including a criminal’s, awareness space is centered around those locations that are most important to them, starting with their home and including other locations such as work, a friend’s house, the primary stores where they shop, favorite walking paths, etc. It is also composed of the transportation corridors used to connect those locations to one another.

Defining the perpetrator’s awareness space is critical to solving Jessica’s case, because in the vast majority of child abduction murders, as well as other crimes, researchers have found that the perpetrator lives within his awareness space, commits his crimes close to home and within that awareness space, and disposes of his victims and other evidence at the outer edges of the awareness space, generally along the space’s transportation corridors.
rbbm.
 
I posted this on the GB4-only forum, but it’s relevant here too. I also focus on the geographic aspects of crimes on WS. If you’d like any of the lat-long coordinates I have for the GB4+SG events, send me a PM and I’ll try to get them to you asap. Otherwise, I’ll eventually put them on here when time allows.

Here’s what I think: LISK knows the Oak Beach/Gilgo area and scouted this location for his first victim (Maureen) before finding and killing her in 2007. She is the first victim LISK placed on this strip of land. His preferred disposal method is the world’s largest dumping ground: the ocean. I believe LISK is an avid winter boater, with a boat in a slip or at-the-ready all winter long. He chose an alternate “land” disposal site out of necessity because he wanted to avoid the throngs during boating season – from Memorial Day (when people put their boats in the water) thru Labor Day (when they take them out). He is not a “seasonal” killer – he’s just cognizant about what the season means for his nocturnal activity and how he must mitigate the risk of being caught. I also believe his profession requires him to be most active and about during the May-Sep time of year and the kind of vehicle he drives would not raise suspicion if it was stopped along a desolate roadside at night.

If you use Google Earth (free download) and pin these locations you’ll find an interesting pattern and what has given me the impression of precise measurement. Consider this:

Bodies disposed of here:
40°37'29.22"N 73°22'31.43"W – Maureen, 2007-July
40°37'27.97"N 73°22'35.80"W – Melissa, 2009-July
40°37'30.28"N 73°22'28.28"W – Megan, 2010-June
40°37'26.93"N 73°22'38.90"W – Amber, 2010-Sept

Markers: Beginning of tree line 40°37'31.25"N 73°22'24.63"W and concrete patch (there in 2007 per GE historic image tool) 40°37'30.88"N 73°22'24.28"W

*Keep in mind a vehicle odometer measures in 1/10 mile increments​

Distance from both markers:
2007 First victim placed 0.11 m
LISK thinking: about 1/10 of a mile from concrete patch/start of tree line​
2009 Second victim placed 0.18 m
LISK thinking: not quite twice the distance of victim 1, but far enough​
2010 Third victim placed 0.06 m
LISK thinking: half the distance of victim 1​
2010 Fourth victim placed 0.22 m
LISK thinking: about 1/20 of a mile from concrete patch/start of tree line and twice the distance of first victim​

For someone to remember, without notes, where he placed his victims – a memory device seems the way to go. If you are familiar with this area already all it takes is to remember the turnaround in the road across from the beach (40°37'32.53"N 73°22'18.02"W) and just beyond that there is a concrete patch and the tree line starts… this is where to push the trip odometer reset button (a non-traceable method which is measured in 1/10 miles). This measurement method satisfies LISK’s need for symmetry and uniformity in all that he does. The distances may not be in precise increments, but they are close enough and time is of the essence so there is risk in making them exact. The length of vehicle is also a variable. Like if LISK drove a super duty-type pickup truck, for example. Not hard to imagine something like this being extremely useful in tick-infested brush:
http://allamericanautomobiles.com/car/66207567.html
 
I believe LISK is an avid winter boater, with a boat in a slip or at-the-ready all winter long.

Snipped for space~~BBM

I'm with you thinking he was a boater or my alternate theory is a pilot. He was/is watching the site either through air or water, IMHO.

I did notice there was a coast guard station on Fire Island~~do you think that could have any connection to LISK?
 
JMO from doing maps of different crimes where bodies have been dumped after an abduction (not likely the case in these crimes). I've noticed that dumping ground has always been North from where the person was taken. The only exception I've noted has been in the case of Kristen French taken by Paul Bernardo and Karla Homolka. There is just something about North.
 
Excerpt: what caught my attention is where perps dispose of bodies at the outer edges of awareness space.

Really interesting stuff being posted – I’ve learned quite a bit in just the last hour. I have always felt geography and proximity are key to solving crimes. The only aspect of crime I’m really interested in.

Here is more food for thought on the “outer edges of awareness space”...

I live in the PacNW and growing up when we would hear about a body found and foul play was involved – the body always seemed to be found 10 miles up a logging road. I kid you not – separate killers had the same thing in mind: 10 miles up seemed to be far enough for a body never to be found, in their minds. So, it does not strike me as odd that the same thinking occurred in different killers over the span of 20+ years about Ocean Parkway. If perps are like-minded about killing another person, then it’s probable they are like-minded in other ways.

For an interesting experiment on how ordinary-minded people think, see the experiment on game theory to learn how people use the same problem-solving process to narrow down options, it is fascinating: http://abcnews.go.com/Primetime/story?id=1730849&page=1. I think somewhere there is a video segment online.

Where to dump a body without being detected and determining that “this spot” is the most optimal involves problem-solving – a weighing of pros and cons, of calculating risk, and the paring down of options. For this reason, GB4’s killer wasn’t the only one to come up with Ocean Parkway as a (seemingly) viable solution to the problem of where?
 
Is there a link to a detailed LISK map on the forum? I can't find one in the main index. TIA
 

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