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  1. #61
    Nick_1 is offline Verified Former Law Enforcement Data Analyst
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    Quote Originally Posted by VictoriaH View Post
    The 17 you see is the year. He posted month/year.
    Book em', Danno.
    "When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?" - Sherlock Holmes

  2. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick_1 View Post
    Honestly, I hope they are not. That isn't meant to be condescending or negative in any manner. I dug deep into the marital history of victims, as I found one was divorced. Nothing remarkable was found, that I saw. All avenues must be explored as a case progresses and evidence or witnesses lack. This early though, I couldn't see anyway that a man would leave the safety of his apartment for an encounter; only to be shot in the apartment parking lot. I couldn't see why a man would take his two dogs along for some sort of escapade. Not to discount your theory, nothing has been eliminated in the realm of possibilities in my mind, yet.

    -Nick
    For all we know it COULD be a woman who dated these men!

  3. #63
    Nick_1 is offline Verified Former Law Enforcement Data Analyst
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    Quote Originally Posted by VictoriaH View Post
    Your posts are very informative and makes a person "think".
    Of course having experience in the field of LE, you "know" what to think!
    I'm curious and wondering your thoughts on this - will putting security cameras make the "killer" move elsewhere?
    I was tired last night, my notes and thoughts were a bit abbrietaved . Nonetheless, thank you for your kind words. As Comissioner Kelly used to say, "Precautions either have or will be occurring. Some of these you will notice, some these you will not." As for the deterrence factor, I'd presume they placed trail style cameras in the wooded or vegetational areas. Heavily dependent on offender type with regards to if he will strike in this area again. The escalation and tight clustering of cases leads me to hypothesize; maybe. I don't think he'll hit the same spots or close to them. The lack of suspect description or vehicle information gives the perpetrator a great amount of anonymity. I am kind of wondering if this, "John Smith," the nice guy who runs on the trail every morning, has a family etc. The victims may not know the man per say, but the trail community from what I know isn't huge. Maybe the victims gave a friendly morning wave to this, "John Smith," every so often. If you see a man in a mask running at you down the trail armed, you're going to run the other way. But what if you saw a guy like, "John Smith," with earbuds in, running shoes and his usual yellow top? Your behavior would remain the same. More on this theory later tonight.

    -Nick
    "When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?" - Sherlock Holmes

  4. #64
    Nick_1 is offline Verified Former Law Enforcement Data Analyst
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    Quote Originally Posted by VictoriaH View Post
    The gates DO go all the way around the complex.
    Gates are a lot like gun control. If someone intends to do harm, very little can stop them.

    I'll get another analysis up here in a few.

    -Nick
    "When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?" - Sherlock Holmes

  5. #65
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    My nagging question is why this specific area?
    Does the killer live in the apartment and watch the trail and these mens habits?

    What is the profile for this killer? Are these his first kill? These appear like very specific targets and organized to some degree.
    Are there any other strings of unsolved murders with similar victims?

    JMO
    Always do the right thing because you do enough things you think are right that end up being wrong-my dad-RIP 1/19/2013

  6. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick_1 View Post
    Gates are a lot like gun control. If someone intends to do harm, very little can stop them.

    I'll get another analysis up here in a few.

    -Nick


    Yeah I agree with that, I was just commenting on Snoopsters questioning if the south part was open.
    Besides, the main entrance gates are not closed at night anyway.

  7. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by VictoriaH View Post
    I live in the complex right where David Lenox and Mike Darby were killed. I didn't know Darby was shot, thank you for the information.
    Regardless it's TOO close for comfort and hope this killer is found.
    Hopefully websleuth people can help in investigation and stop ANOTHER senseless killing!
    This is very frightening for you. I'm sorry that you are having to experience this so close and personally.
    I hope that LE can get this solved quickly!
    JMO
    Always do the right thing because you do enough things you think are right that end up being wrong-my dad-RIP 1/19/2013

  8. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by WideOpen View Post
    This is very frightening for you. I'm sorry that you are having to experience this so close and personally.
    I hope that LE can get this solved quickly!
    JMO
    Thank you! Yes it's VERY disturbing and I'm scared to even take a walk let alone go check out the trails.

  9. #69
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    I am curious about this one, why has only one of the 4 killings mentioned cause of death?

  10. #70
    Nick_1 is offline Verified Former Law Enforcement Data Analyst
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    Quote Originally Posted by WideOpen View Post
    My nagging question is why this specific area?
    Does the killer live in the apartment and watch the trail and these mens habits?

    What is the profile for this killer? Are these his first kill? These appear like very specific targets and organized to some degree.
    Are there any other strings of unsolved murders with similar victims?

    JMO
    1) A suspect's arrest can only truly answer this question. You've got two theories (in reality dozens more), with regards to geographical selection in violent, serial crimes.
    A) Transistional offender. He or she doesn't want to commit crimes where he or she could easily be noticed to be out of place. *Typically, a person's race, ethnicity, features, habits or characteristics would apply to this selection.* For example, a white offender in a predominantly Hispanic community would be a statistical minority. Basically, perpetrators of crimes have to transistion from their normal community to a different community.
    2) Geographically significant offender. No issue with striking near where he or she resides. Maybe they're confident they can quickly escape back to the safe refuge of where they reside. In contrast, the risk of being spotted as you scurry back to your residence increases.

    To address your specific question, a suspect residing at these specific apartments looks to be unlikely, I believe. A disheveled offender after committing as heinous of a crime as murder is likely to proceed directly home. Just my thoughts but I would opine that he would be spotted or known. People still in 2017 are hesitant to dial 911, just look at all the victims of abductions that were held for a decade or more. Anything is possible.

    Motive? That's tough. These were specific demographic based targets, yes. They weren't socio-economically targeted however, from what I can gather. An example would be just business owners, the first 3 weren't. Another example outside of this case would be be prostitutes, or vulnerable young women who struggle financially. The distinction between targets is of incredible importance, to me. Dependent on demographic or socio-economic status of the victim, you have two totally different types of assailant(s)

    Now that I type this I pause, was this question directed at me? Sorry if it wasn't.
    "When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?" - Sherlock Holmes


  11. #71
    Nick_1 is offline Verified Former Law Enforcement Data Analyst
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    The less information to the public with an ongoing, especially wide-open investigation, the better.

    Their it is a specific reason lol.
    "When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?" - Sherlock Holmes

  12. #72
    Quote Originally Posted by Nick_1 View Post
    Gates are a lot like gun control. If someone intends to do harm, very little can stop them.

    I'll get another analysis up here in a few.

    -Nick
    Do you think this is more a random sniper than someone actually confronting or getting up close to the victims??


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  13. #73
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    (Looks like some great posts here and marking my spot to catch up, half asleep)

  14. #74
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    Why would it be announced that cameras were being put up on this trail?

    While it is a safety device, allegedly, for citizens, it may be a strong deterrent for the killer to go elsewhere. Truthfully, how much security does it really offer the average person on the trail?

    A person would need to be sitting at the monitors 24 hours a day and the chances of catching this killer is slim now that he knows about the cameras.

    My opinions only.

  15. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick_1 View Post
    Honestly, I hope they are not. That isn't meant to be condescending or negative in any manner. I dug deep into the marital history of victims, as I found one was divorced. Nothing remarkable was found, that I saw. All avenues must be explored as a case progresses and evidence or witnesses lack. This early though, I couldn't see anyway that a man would leave the safety of his apartment for an encounter; only to be shot in the apartment parking lot. I couldn't see why a man would take his two dogs along for some sort of escapade. Not to discount your theory, nothing has been eliminated in the realm of possibilities in my mind, yet.

    -Nick
    Him being shot in the parking lot certainly does discount that theory, but I don't think the dogs do.

    On another note, welcome to WS . And, if you're so inclined, please check out the Missy Bevers threads and the Abigail Williams/LIberty German threads and weigh in about your theories .

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