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  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by gregjrichards View Post
    12z, 0z, etc.- These are timing signals for models, essentially done in military time with 24 hours. The main model times are 0z, 6z, 12z, and 18z, though most models come out at 0z and 12z. New data is taken officially every 12 hours, as 0z and 12z, which is why those are the two model runs with fresh data. The timing is actually that in London, where the first weather balloons were launched and timing needed to be standard across the globe for weather. Thus, 0z is midnight in England and 7 PM during winter in SW CT. 12z is noon in England, 7 AM here in SW CT. Models come out anywhere between 2 and 6 hours later than the timing in z shows they will, but the time stamp just shows what data was input.

    https://swctweather.com/weather-glossary/
    Euro runs , have, for some time been considered the most reliable and accurate model!

  2. #32
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  3. #33
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    Steering currents

    if weak storm the lower altitude steering currents tend to be the driver when at her strength the higher level currents do the driving

    way to far out but just we should get one saved it animates which is quite a mess!!


    The National Hurricane Center issues forecast advisories four times daily for each active Atlantic or eastern Pacific tropical depression, storm or hurricane. These are five-day forecasts for the center of circulation.
    It's usually a cone shape, instead of just a single line, because there is uncertainty in the track forecast that grows with time. For


    s, the average error in a five-day forecast path of the center in 2016 was about 194 miles.


    five-day track error is already almost 200 miles, imagine what a 10-plus-day track error would be.
    Brief Appetizer of Model Spaghetti

    "spaghetti models" and the pitfalls associated with them.

    the the same forecast model is run with slightly different initial conditions in the atmosphere has become valuable for forecasters to determine, in our case, the uncertainty in Irma's future track.


    meteorologists don't analyze one particular run of one model, but look at an entire suite of current data learn each model's biases and, importantly, look for trends in those models over time.
    All we can say right now is that the U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast all need to monitor the progress of Irma.


    There are some overall pattern clues for which meteorologists look to ascertain the overall threat to the East Coast from a hurricane approaching the area

    https://weather.com/storms/hurricane...allenge-1sep17

  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by CARIIS View Post
    I agree and the water is really hot now

    N Carolina??
    Yep....2 out 3 are NC. Just a slight movement in the high out in the Atlantic and we have a different result. Canadian it's the odd man out on this run with Florida although the other 2 are running it up the coast. Feels a bit like Matthew all over again.

    http://spaghettimodels.com

    Sent from my VK815 using Tapatalk
    "The truth is rarely pure and never simple" - Oscar Wilde


    In my opinion....speculation

  5. #35
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    Henry, for putting it all into one jpeg daily and/or 2x a day so I can send to those that are going to have to make travel plans around this storm next week!

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bently View Post
    Henry, for putting it all into one jpeg daily and/or 2x a day so I can send to those that are going to have to make travel plans around this storm next week!
    Your welcome. Hurricanes are one of the few weather events that we can see coming in time to prepare.

    Sent from my VK815 using Tapatalk
    "The truth is rarely pure and never simple" - Oscar Wilde


    In my opinion....speculation

  7. #37
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    11:00am Advisory:

    back to Catagory 3:






    Tracks of the 11 previous tropical cyclones that passed within 200 miles of Irma
    5 a.m. EDT advisory position, as well as the three-day and five-day forecast positions.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.00ca2ec2b231

  8. #38
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    I'm supposed to go for the first vacation in almost 5 years...to the DR. Leaving this Friday...anyone have thoughts on if I should be canceling the trip? Irma whyyyyyyyyy


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  9. #39
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  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Henry2326 View Post
    Yep....2 out 3 are NC. Just a slight movement in the high out in the Atlantic and we have a different result. Canadian it's the odd man out on this run with Florida although the other 2 are running it up the coast. Feels a bit like Matthew all over again.

    http://spaghettimodels.com

    Sent from my VK815 using Tapatalk
    and that is so bad cause she can scoot up all the while over all this warm water drinking its fuel

    I have had stupid dreams of giant icebergs being dragged to right in front of a storm hopefully weakening them !!

    Wherever she ends up it would be far better if she just slams into somewhere than cruising up the east coast.

    She is gonna be a storm surge, wind, power loss monster.


  11. #41
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    Noon version of GFS (American)....although intensity forecast are not very good, they have it at 885, Wilma was at 882 and 185 mph winds. Patricia was at 879 and 215 mph winds.

    Sent from my VK815 using Tapatalk
    "The truth is rarely pure and never simple" - Oscar Wilde


    In my opinion....speculation

  12. #42
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    Sadly we will have another named storm soon.

    "Jose" behind her has a 60% chance, over next 5 days of developing

    They used to be tracked by lat/long!

    Hurricane Katrina in 2005: $16.3 billion
    Superstorm Sandy in 2012: $8.3 billion
    Hurricane Ike in 2008: $2.7 billion
    Hurricane Ivan in 2004: $1.6 billion
    Hurricane Irene in 2011: $1.3 billion
    Source: Federal Emergency Management Agency








    http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/22/weather/weather-naming-storms/index.html

  13. #43
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    Noon version, Canadian has a much weaker storm, 967, and running up the coast on land.

    Sent from my VK815 using Tapatalk
    "The truth is rarely pure and never simple" - Oscar Wilde


    In my opinion....speculation

  14. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beth11311 View Post
    I'm supposed to go for the first vacation in almost 5 years...to the DR. Leaving this Friday...anyone have thoughts on if I should be canceling the trip? Irma whyyyyyyyyy


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Goodness yes--cancel now , ahead of time so you can get your money back -- there was a family emergency remember

    I would not get into the hurricane - who knows the fine print may say all kinds of stupid stuff
    like we will refund your money related to a hurricane only if it hits your plane in flight

    or the hotel fine print might read no refunds will be issued if the basic frame of the structure remains.

    Lack of food , power, and water do not obligate a refund

    Demolished runways do not obligate us to refund your fare.

    We will not pay for canoes as a mode of transportation.

    We are under no obligation to get you and your loved ones out of harms way. (Exception: Storm systems with in excess of 212 mph will be reviewed)




    bla bla
    moo

  15. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by CARIIS View Post
    and that is so bad cause she can scoot up all the while over all this warm water drinking its fuel

    I have had stupid dreams of giant icebergs being dragged to right in front of a storm hopefully weakening them !!

    Wherever she ends up it would be far better if she just slams into somewhere than cruising up the east coast.

    She is gonna be a storm surge, wind, power loss monster.
    Dear Cariis,
    May all your dreams come true!

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