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  1. #31
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    Jose continues to strengthen forecasted to skirt the North Atlantic coast Tuesday/Wednesday of next week. Hurricane watches could occur as far North as North Carolina. It is predicted to be a wide storm so impacts could be felt further inland although the storm center stays offshore. Both models predict Cat1/cat2 intensity.

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    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...&xpos=0&ypos=0

    http://spaghettimodels.com
    "The truth is rarely pure and never simple" - Oscar Wilde


    In my opinion....speculation

  2. #32
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    Same site

    Number 15 thankfully, at this time, is not in conductive conditions to grow the future Lee should become Lee in the next 24 hours

  3. #33
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    tid bits

    this season:

    second most expensive season

    most destructive since 2005

    5th wettest hurricane on record Harvey

    season began 6 weeks earlier than typical

    second season in history with one starting in April

    Harvey second fastest intnsifier in history

    Wilma first birth to 5 in 54 hrs

    Sandy biggest diameter

    2005 busiest with 28

    Most expensive at this time

    Katrina

    Irma

    Sandy

    Harvey

    Ike

    fatalties

    1780 22,000

    Mitch 1998 19,000

    Ivan most tornados at 120

    Fastest forward moving one 1938 70 mph --Henry (you prob have !) check this one out an amazing story. New England one.

    longest lasting 27 days

    Irma second longest (by three hours) duration at cat 5 37 hours at sustained winds of 185 (there criteria for sustained is one minute interval at that speed)

    Biggest wave 95 feet (confirmed) 98 ft

    Smallest Marco 11 miles wide

    tightest eye Wilma

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...ntensification

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_A...rricane_season
    Last edited by CARIIS; 09-16-2017 at 09:11 AM.

  4. #34
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    Invest 96 is expected to develop and be in the lesser antilles Monday/Tuesday of next week.

    Although, as we know, its way too early to pinpoint US landfall, all 3 models, Euro, GFS, and Canada have a landfall on East Coast Tuesday, 9/26 with cat3 intensity level.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...&xpos=0&ypos=0

    http://spaghettimodels.com

    Sent from my VK815 using Tapatalk
    "The truth is rarely pure and never simple" - Oscar Wilde


    In my opinion....speculation

  5. #35
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    Water temps ahead of Jose hot hot hot

    https://www.ventusky.com/?p=28;-67;2...&t=20170906/21

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by CARIIS View Post
    Water temps ahead of Jose hot hot hot

    https://www.ventusky.com/?p=28;-67;2...&t=20170906/21
    Yep....expecting it to intensify but not beyond cat2. The surge from cat2 would significant though.

    Sent from my VK815 using Tapatalk
    "The truth is rarely pure and never simple" - Oscar Wilde


    In my opinion....speculation

  7. #37
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    Here is a better pic of ensemble forecast runs of Invest 96. A lot of uncertainty....although increasing assurance that it will affect the islands.....last thing they need right now.

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    "The truth is rarely pure and never simple" - Oscar Wilde


    In my opinion....speculation

  8. #38
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    TS watches have been issued for portions of the eastern Caribbean as #PTC15 is expected to become #Maria and affect the area next week.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/hurrtrack...imodels.com%2F


    Wow....came faster than I though. These fine folks do not need this .

    Sent from my VK815 using Tapatalk
    "The truth is rarely pure and never simple" - Oscar Wilde


    In my opinion....speculation

  9. #39
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    PTC15 update from NHC

    http://spaghettimodels.com

    Sent from my VK815 using Tapatalk
    "The truth is rarely pure and never simple" - Oscar Wilde


    In my opinion....speculation

  10. #40
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    Started a Maria thread....

    http://www.websleuths.com/forums/sho...d.php?t=349624

    Sent from my VK815 using Tapatalk
    "The truth is rarely pure and never simple" - Oscar Wilde


    In my opinion....speculation


  11. #41
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    Jose update from NHC...

    Hurricane Jose heading basically north and will get close to the NE. Going to be a close skirt. Being a wide system will impact land even if off the coast. NC north needs to watch.*

    http://spaghettimodels.com

    Sent from my VK815 using Tapatalk
    "The truth is rarely pure and never simple" - Oscar Wilde


    In my opinion....speculation

  12. #42
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    EURO and GFS models are consistent to skirting the coast. There is some concern and hinted in the Euro that the high will move West and block Jose from moving out to sea. The significant implication could be both Jose and Maria dancing around in the Northern Atlantic. Again...to far out, only speculation.

    Sent from my VK815 using Tapatalk
    "The truth is rarely pure and never simple" - Oscar Wilde


    In my opinion....speculation

  13. #43
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    ugh Maria is next ........and cruising along the ocean


    http://www.cnn.com/

  14. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by CARIIS View Post
    tid bits



    Fastest forward moving one 1938 70 mph --Henry (you prob have !) check this one out an amazing story. New England one.
    Cariis- Wow! Thanks for pointing this out.

    Could you imagine if this occurred now? It was a bad one then!! Lets pray we never see this again.

    Hundreds of lives were lost with many injured.
    Water rose 7' within 30 minutes in New York Harbor.
    Bridges, utilities, and railroads were wiped out.
    Catastrophic damage to fishing fleets.
    An estimated storm tide of 15ft. across eastern Long Island. 8' MLLW was record at Port Jefferson.The storm surge in Western Long Island Sound was 5 1/2 hrs AFTER landfall.
    20,000 miles of power and telephone lines downed (Mandia 2013).
    Ten new inlets formed from the storm from Fire Island to East Hampton. The most notable was Shinecock Inlet.

    Peak Wave Height:*50 ft. at Gloucester, MA
    Deaths:*700
    Homeless:*Approx. 63,000
    Homes/Buildings Destroyed:*Approx. 8,900
    Trees Destroyed:*Approx. 2 Billion
    Boats Lost or Destroyed:*Approx. 3,300


    https://www.weather.gov/okx/1938HurricaneHome



    Sent from my VK815 using Tapatalk
    "The truth is rarely pure and never simple" - Oscar Wilde


    In my opinion....speculation

  15. #45
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    11pm NHC forecast track.... Jose to skirt the US with coastal impacts likely. He is expected to weaken due to upcoming shear. Still a wide system impacting those west of center.

    http://spaghettimodels.com

    Sent from my VK815 using Tapatalk
    "The truth is rarely pure and never simple" - Oscar Wilde


    In my opinion....speculation

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