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  1. #1
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    Hurricane Nate expected to reach Gulf Coast as Category 1 - October 2017

    Hurricane could strike US Gulf Coast this weekend, forecasters warn


    It will hit somewhere between Mobile, Alabama and Florida’s capital, Tallahasse, National Hurricane Center warns

    Weeks after parts of the US were devastated by a pair of deadly hurricanes, forecasters are warning that another one could strike America’s Gulf Coast over the weekend.


    The newly formed tropical depression is currently lingering around 45 miles away the south west Caribbean island of San Andres.


    But America’s National Hurricane Center has warned it is expected to become a tropical storm. It then expects the storm to develop into a Category 1 hurricane over the weekend when it will hit somewhere between Mobile, Alabama and Florida’s capital, Tallahassee.
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-a7983816.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1...?cone#contents

  2. #2
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    This tropical depression could become Hurricane Nate as it brushes past the western portion of Florida’s Panhandle and the northern Gulf Coast late this weekend.

    Strengthening is likely over the northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday night and Friday.

    The northern Gulf Coast could see “direct impacts from wind, storm surge and heavy rainfall, however, it is too early to specify the timing or magnitude of these impacts.”

    The storm isn’t expected to veer toward southeast Florida or farther south on the Gulf Coast, such as Naples.

    Nate would be a Category 1 hurricane, which would make it a still-dangerous but least intense type of hurricane, with wind speeds of between 74 and 95 mph.

    http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/wea...004-story.html


  3. #3
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    Now Tropical Storm Nate, per NOAA.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1...?cone#contents

  4. #4
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    Hi Coldpizza - thanks for changing the thread title so quickly.

    Nate doesn't look as though he will be anything like as serious as other recent hurricanes (unless he really picks up strength over the Gulf) but there'll still be plenty of people in his path.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by MelmothTheLost View Post
    Hi Coldpizza - thanks for changing the thread title so quickly.

    Nate doesn't look as though he will be anything like as serious as other recent hurricanes (unless he really picks up strength over the Gulf) but there'll still be plenty of people in his path.
    Wind may not be an issue but storm surge and flooding will be a problem along the coast.

    It also depend on the tides too. Sandy was barely a hurricane 1 but her timing when she made landfall in New Jersey was during high tide and a full moon which brought about 8 feet or more of water surging.

    The area that Nate seems to be heading towards was affected by Katrina. I'm curious how stable those areas are to storm surge after Katrina.

  6. #6
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    Good grief ... I have never followed weather threads like I have this season!

    Hopefully, Nate will become a dud (I can hope, can’t I?). This is all getting to be too much.
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  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by JerseyGirl View Post
    Wind may not be an issue but storm surge and flooding will be a problem along the coast.

    It also depend on the tides too. Sandy was barely a hurricane 1 but her timing when she made landfall in New Jersey was during high tide and a full moon which brought about 8 feet or more of water surging.

    The area that Nate seems to be heading towards was affected by Katrina. I'm curious how stable those areas are to storm surge after Katrina.
    Looking at the NOAA cone projection, it currrently suggests the NE eyewall will be a direct hit on New Orleans.

    I agree, tides will be important. It's full moon tonight and will be 93% waning gibbous on Saturday night/Sunday morning when landfall is currently expected.

  8. #8
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    Nate's forecast track had shifted slightly west by midmorning Thursday, putting New Orleans -- with its compromised drainage system -- directly in the storm's sights. The city's unique drainage system still is experiencing critical deficiencies exposed during heavy August storms that led to the flooding of several hundred properties. Of New Orleans' 120 drainage pumps, 108 were in service Thursday morning. Five of those pumps were relatively small and located in newer sections of the city where localized flooding has not been a problem this summer. Another four were among the system's 20 so-called "constant duty" pumps, which are also small and work to clear the streets of runoff from lawn watering and other daily water usage.

    One major pump that remained out of service was located at the city's largest-capacity pump station in the city's Lakeview neighborhood, which serves a heavily populated swath along the city's western edge and a large section of neighboring Jefferson Parish. Another major pump was in nearby City Park. The third was across the Mississippi River, in the suburban-style Algiers section of town.

    The water board also had backup generators at all 24 of its major pump stations, including 10 temporary generators installed recently. A key turbine that powers the city's oldest, most powerful pumps at a central power plant failed this summer, exposing the complete lack of backup power at some locations.

    Anyone with Columbus Day weekend plans in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama should pay close attention, as a hurricane landfall in that region looks likely.

    http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/05/us/tro...ate/index.html

  9. #9
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    New Orleans is getting ready.....but the pump system will tell the tale....flooding and how much? There can be street flooding with a heavy rain.

    http://www.nola.com/weather/index.ss...river_home_pop

  10. #10
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    Overnight models very consistent with location. Of course, we are in the 5 day cone so they should become closer. Intensity models show a very low cat1 model at this time. The system will be moving relatively fast, so to build it will need to spend time over water. We will hope that it moves really fast and doesn't have time to intensify...

    http://spaghettimodels.com

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    In my opinion....speculation


  11. #11
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    Mike Seidel is in Biloxi, MS. As much as I love Biloxi, I hope he stays there.

    Made a "hurricane run" and filled up car, got money from bank, went to Rouse's grocery.....which has 24 bottles of water for $2.99. You can begin to get the feeling.....a storm in the Gulf.....the local news is covering the greater NO area.

    I pulled the "Hurricane Prep" list off the bulletin board and began making more ice.

    I hear from the weather channel that there are 22 deaths from Nate already.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spellbound View Post
    Good grief ... I have never followed weather threads like I have this season!

    Hopefully, Nate will become a dud (I can hope, can’t I?). This is all getting to be too much.

    Same here with the weather threads - looks like it will miss much of FL except the panhandle.
    "Is this the Briscoe dame? Listen, I see that brat 'a yours with that gun packer, Jones." - The Texas Tornado, 1928

  13. #13
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    From 2:00 pm Saturday to 2:00 pm Sunday, there is a gap in activity in the models. The first pic below demonstrated the gap. Uncertainty as to intensity at landfall.

    Nate in pic 2 trying to get organized.

    http://spaghettimodels.com

    Sent from my VK815 using Tapatalk
    "The truth is rarely pure and never simple" - Oscar Wilde


    In my opinion....speculation

  14. #14
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    Big question....80 mph or stronger at landfall? Ahead of the storm both New Orleans and Alabama have declared state of emergency.

    http://spaghettimodels.com

    Sent from my VK815 using Tapatalk
    "The truth is rarely pure and never simple" - Oscar Wilde


    In my opinion....speculation

  15. #15
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    Central America already experiencing flooding from Nate.

    http://spaghettimodels.com

    Sent from my VK815 using Tapatalk
    "The truth is rarely pure and never simple" - Oscar Wilde


    In my opinion....speculation

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