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  1. #16
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    Nate is forecast to reach the northern Gulf Coast this weekend as a hurricane, and the threat of direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is increasing from Louisiana through the Florida Panhandle,” the hurricane center said in a forecast on Thursday evening.

    Officials expected to issue a hurricane watch for part of the Gulf Coast by Friday morning.

    Florida

    Even as the storm tracked farther west, Gov. Rick Scott of Florida, who this week urged residents to “remain vigilant, restock hurricane supply kits and ensure hurricane preparedness plans are in place,” declared a state of emergency for 29 counties.

    Louisiana

    The authorities in Louisiana, where Gov. John Bel Edwards predicted “a direct hit,” warned that the forecast for Nate could abruptly worsen, and he told residents to prepare to wait out the storm beginning at 8 p.m. on Saturday.

    In New Orleans, officials planned to begin handing out sandbags on Friday. But the city, which acknowledged that storm surge flooding was “probable,” said Thursday that its “primary concern” through the weekend was heavy wind.

    “Landfall is expected early Sunday morning, either as a strong tropical storm or a weak Category 1 hurricane,” Mr. Edwards said. He said officials expected the fast-moving storm to drop three to six inches of rain on Louisiana. “But that’s what’s expected as of today.”

    Officials in Louisiana ordered evacuations in part of St. Bernard Parish east of New Orleans, and a voluntary evacuation was ordered early Thursday in Grand Isle, south of New Orleans.

    Alabama, Mississippi, Kentucky, West Virginia

    Officials in Alabama and Mississippi also said they were monitoring the storm’s development. Nate is expected to rapidly weaken after landfall, and it could be a tropical depression over Kentucky or West Virginia by Monday afternoon.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/05/u...t-sunday-.html
    http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10...toward-us.html

    No drilling rigs were evacuated, but one movable rig was taken out of the storm's path. The agency estimated less than 15 percent of the current oil production in the Gulf of Mexico has been shut-in, which equates to 254,607 barrels of oil per day.
    Last edited by JerseyGirl; 10-05-2017 at 08:18 PM.

  2. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Henry2326 View Post
    Overnight models very consistent with location. Of course, we are in the 5 day cone so they should become closer. Intensity models show a very low cat1 model at this time. The system will be moving relatively fast, so to build it will need to spend time over water. We will hope that it moves really fast and doesn't have time to intensify...

    http://spaghettimodels.com
    Henry, the bottom right image seems to suggest Nate and the disturbance in the Bahamas might be on a collision course over the Gulf. How likely is that and what's the implication if it happens?

  3. #18
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    Hi Mel- the Canadian model is the only model that shows any development of the Low around the Bahamas....but it moves into the Gulf after Nate has crossed over to landfall.

    In the pic below, it shows on the Texas coast on Oct 13th.

    I'm quite a fan of the Canadian model....they have been the leading indicator for most of the year. They are relatively good at positioning, but not so good at intensity... None of the models predict intensity very well. IMO

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...os=35&ypos=167

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    In my opinion....speculation

  4. #19
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    Mike's Weather Page tonight:

    Latest EURO/GFS show similar landfall locations Saturday into Sunday this weekend. A lot will be determined how Nate does after encountering Central America and gets back over water tomorrow. Small storm circulations can ramp up fast... or get torn apart just as fast. Still forecast to be a Hurricane at landfall. Track is fairly confident. Intensity questions remain as he races up from the Yucatan on Saturday.

    http://spaghettimodels.com

    Sent from my VK815 using Tapatalk
    "The truth is rarely pure and never simple" - Oscar Wilde


    In my opinion....speculation

  5. #20
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    NHC 8:00 pm stays the path....

    Sent from my VK815 using Tapatalk
    "The truth is rarely pure and never simple" - Oscar Wilde


    In my opinion....speculation

  6. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lato View Post
    Mike Seidel is in Biloxi, MS. As much as I love Biloxi, I hope he stays there.

    Made a "hurricane run" and filled up car, got money from bank, went to Rouse's grocery.....which has 24 bottles of water for $2.99. You can begin to get the feeling.....a storm in the Gulf.....the local news is covering the greater NO area.

    I pulled the "Hurricane Prep" list off the bulletin board and began making more ice.

    I hear from the weather channel that there are 22 deaths from Nate already.
    That pretty much covers my checklist, too, Lato. Not much else to do but pray the power stays on. That's my biggest fear right now. Hubby needs electricity for his feeding pump and oxygen, and I need A/C for my sanity. We do have a back up plan, though.
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  7. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by JerseyGirl View Post
    Wind may not be an issue but storm surge and flooding will be a problem along the coast.

    It also depend on the tides too. Sandy was barely a hurricane 1 but her timing when she made landfall in New Jersey was during high tide and a full moon which brought about 8 feet or more of water surging.

    The area that Nate seems to be heading towards was affected by Katrina. I'm curious how stable those areas are to storm surge after Katrina.
    The upgraded $14.5 billion upgraded levee system should be fine for this minor storm.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/hu...-walls-n415816

    The pumps in Orleans Parish, sadly, still suck. That's why the mayor is up in arms. Certain areas of NOLA had serious street flooding just this week.

    [...]

    The beleaguered and aging drainage and pump system that has seen big street flooding events recently on July 22, August 5 and Oct. 2 could face a challenge with Nate, though the system is expected to move quickly and to not drop an inordinate amount of rain.

    Mayor Mitch Landrieu said that the Sewerage and Water Board and its contractors are working around the clock to repair the pumps. As of Thursday, 108 of 120 pumps were operational.

    http://www.wwltv.com/mobile/article/...city/481100215
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  8. #23
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    Wow...12 years later and still talking about this. What a shame. We might watch this crisis all over again.

    Sent from my VS986 using Tapatalk
    "The truth is rarely pure and never simple" - Oscar Wilde


    In my opinion....speculation

  9. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by bessie View Post
    That pretty much covers my checklist, too, Lato. Not much else to do but pray the power stays on. That's my biggest fear right now. Hubby needs electricity for his feeding pump and oxygen, and I need A/C for my sanity. We do have a back up plan, though.
    Sure hope you are well prepared and this ends up well for you and DH, Bessie. It has been such a stressful year already. Prayers and good thoughts coming your way.
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  10. #25
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    Hurricane Watch
    A hurricane watch was in effect along a huge stretch of coastline between Morgan City, Louisiana and the Alabama/Florida border including New Orleans.

    Storm Surge Watch
    A storm surge watch was also in effect for the same coastline and for Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas, La. and for New Orleans.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather...te-way-n808001


  11. #26
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    A mandatory evacuation order has been issued for Grand Isle, Lafitte, Barataria and Crown Point. St. Bernard Parish is also requiring residents outside of its levee protection system to leave ahead of Nate's arrival.

    Plaquemines Parish officials plan to update residents at 2 p.m., when a decision will be made about areas of its west bank that are outside the parish levee system.

    Grand Isle School will be closed through Monday.

    http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index....rand_isle.html
    http://www.wdsu.com/article/grand-is...ystem/12787318

  12. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lato View Post
    Mike Seidel is in Biloxi, MS. As much as I love Biloxi, I hope he stays there.
    Jim Cantore lands in Gulfport, MS

    http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index...._gulfport.html

    A little humor:

    A Gulfport attorney said he boarded a plane in Atlanta to head home to Gulfport Thursday afternoon (Oct. 5) and Jim Cantore was on it.

    "Everybody looked at him and said, 'Oh no, not you!'

    Most everyone respects the Weather Channel's hurricane and tropical storm mainstay, but nobody likes to see him show up in their town before a storm.

    Cantore’s not giving away his location. Maybe he’ll rent a car and head for Louisiana. At this point, it’s hard to say where Tropical Storm Nate will land.

    http://www.sunherald.com/news/weathe...177307481.html
    Last edited by JerseyGirl; 10-06-2017 at 01:34 PM.

  13. #28
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    The eye of the storm was expected to pass late Saturday or early Sunday about 50 miles east of New Orleans. Over the warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea, Nate was forecast to gain strength as it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico later Friday and possibly strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane by the time it makes landfall.

    A tropical storm warning was issued late Friday morning for New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain, west to Morgan City, Louisiana.

    A a hurricane warning was issued from Grand Isle, Louisiana, to the Alabama-Florida border.

    A storm surge warning was put in place from Morgan City to the Alabama-Florida line, as well as along the northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain.



    Louisiana
    Of the city's 120 main drainage pumps, three major and nine smaller ones were offline Thursday night. Also, all 24 major pump stations had backup generators, as only three of five turbines that help power the city's oldest, most powerful pumps were available for service. The Louisiana Governor authorized 1,300 National Guard troops to mobilize ahead of the storm, with some headed to New Orleans to help monitor the pumps.

    Central Gulf Coast, Tennessee, Southern Appalachian Mountains
    The storm could drop 3 to 6 inches of rain, with 12 inches possible in some areas, from the central Gulf Coast north through Tennessee and the southern Appalachians through the weekend, possibly spawning flash floods.

    Florida and Alabama
    Though Florida remained largely out of the forecast cone, hurricane, tropical storm and storm surge watches were issued late Friday from the state's border with Alabama east as far as Indian Pass.

    In Alabama, a statewide emergency declaration was signed and went into effect Friday morning. The move "frees up personnel and resources in case there is a need to respond to any storm related activity." The mayor of Mobile, Alabama warned residents Friday about storm surge. "We encourage citizens in low-lying areas to pay special attention to newscasts. There is a projected 4- to 7-(foot) storm surge. It will happen to coincide with high tide, which will give you additional water levels." Mobile officials were checking storm drains for debris, taking measures to avert power outages and deploying critical equipment. Shelters were prepared to open, if necessary.

    Southeast Tennessee and Southwest North Carolina
    The Knoxville area is likely to dodge the worst weather as the remnants of Tropical Storm Nate reach East Tennessee by Sunday. Rainfall of more than 4 inches is possible for southeast Tennessee and southwest North Carolina, with the potential for flooding in the headwaters of the French Broad and Pigeon rivers. Locally, 2-3 inches of rainfall is expected, beginning with scattered showers as early as Saturday night. The heaviest rains should fall Sunday afternoon and into Sunday evening.

    http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/06/us/tro...ast/index.html
    http://www.knoxnews.com/story/weathe...ate/740128001/
    Last edited by JerseyGirl; 10-06-2017 at 02:56 PM.

  14. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by JerseyGirl View Post
    Jim Cantore lands in Gulfport, MS

    http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index...._gulfport.html

    A little humor:

    A Gulfport attorney said he boarded a plane in Atlanta to head home to Gulfport Thursday afternoon (Oct. 5) and Jim Cantore was on it.

    "Everybody looked at him and said, 'Oh no, not you!'

    http://www.sunherald.com/news/weathe...177307481.html
    I found that article hilarious. It raised my confidence level a notch, too, as I've suspected a slight eastern jog since yesterday. I don't wish the storm on anyone, but as long as the NOLA area is on the dry side of the storm (west side), the City proper might be spared heavy rain, and hence flooding problems.

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  15. #30
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    Storm surge predictions show New Orleans at 5-8 feet. Higher rainfall levels will be on the strong side, in MS/AL. Its predicted to be at a cat 1 intensity and models are very consistent on the track, including NHC. Radar shows Nate showing some spin.

    www.spaghetti models.com

    Sent from my VK815 using Tapatalk
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    In my opinion....speculation

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