PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING A FEW
STRONG AND DAMAGING TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

MUCH OF ALABAMA
FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS
NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI

SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS COAST EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGIONS.

A RATHER VOLATILE SITUATION APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE OVER MUCH THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING
FAVORABLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EPISODE. A BROAD
TROUGH ALOFT WILL SPREAD VERY STRONG WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO...LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH TONIGHT.

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS HAVE PRODUCED A COOLER AIR MASS IN THEIR WAKE ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA. HOWEVER ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE IS IN PLACE JUST UPSTREAM ACROSS LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THE PRESENCE OF THIS MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT ADDITIONAL RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL BECOME SUPERCELLS WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT OF TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE DAMAGING HAIL. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST NEAR RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE MORNING STORMS WITH CONDITIONS MOST FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG AND DAMAGING TORNADOES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE LARGE CLUSTERS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE SEVERE THREAT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVERNIGHT.

THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..CROSBIE/IMY.. 05/10/2006


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.html