Tropical Depression #6

Dark Knight · Sep 3, 2006

Bulletin
Tropical Depression Six Advisory Number 1
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al062006
500 Pm Edt Sun Sep 03 2006

...tropical Depression Forms In The Central Tropical Atlantic...

At 500 Pm Edt...2100z...the Center Of Tropical Depression Six Was
Located Near Latitude 14.6 North...longitude 40.4 West Or About 1525
Miles...2455 Km...east Of The Northern Leeward Islands.

The Depression Is Moving Toward The Northwest Near 14 Mph...and This
General Motion Is Expected To Continue For The Next 24 Hours.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 35 Mph...55 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. The Depression Could Become A Tropical Storm Tonight Or On
Monday.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1005 Mb...29.68 Inches.

Repeating The 500 Pm Edt Position...14.6 N...40.4 W. Movement
Toward...northwest Near 14 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...35 Mph.
Minimum Central Pressure...1005 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At
1100 Pm Edt.

$$
Forecaster Franklin

Dark Knight · Sep 3, 2006

Early forecasted path from the NHC.

Cheetah · Sep 3, 2006

Cute! :doh:

Dark Knight · Sep 3, 2006

www.accuweather.com

The depression already shows signs of showers and thunderstorms wrapping around the low level center, and it could become tropical storm Florence over the next 12 hours. A weak upper trough of low pressure extends south from the central Atlantic to just north of this wave, but it will be quickly kicked to the east Sunday night by a second and more impressive upper trough that is digging south through the central Atlantic. This second upper trough will draw the developing tropical cyclone more to the northwest over the next several days, then the trough will split, with the lion's share moving away to the east while leaving smaller pieces behind that could help to ventilate the system. We think the tropical cyclone will take a more westerly track later in the week as high pressure in the mid levels builds across the central Atlantic in the wake of the second upper trough. There is still a lot of African dust to the north of the wave, but despite that, it continues to produce showers and thunderstorms and continues to look more organized on satellite loops. Some global models track this feature as a hurricane on a westward course to the north of the Puerto Rico in about a week, and if it gets past the upper trough intact over the next several days, this is very likely to happen. It is not out of the question that it could be a major hurricane at that time.

One other (seperate) feature associated with this tropical wave is a front running area of low pressure along 47 west. This feature should stay on a more westerly course toward the Lesser Antilles. It could end up as a developing tropical cyclone across the northwest Caribbean or close to south Florida next weekend.

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/regions.asp?ocean=atlantic&partner=

Dark Knight · Sep 3, 2006

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 03 2006

...DEPRESSION FAR OUT IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1395
MILES...2245 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...14.8 N...40.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Dark Knight · Sep 4, 2006

Bulletin
Tropical Depression Six Advisory Number 3
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al062006
500 Am Edt Mon Sep 04 2006

...tropical Depression Over The Central Atlantic Has Not
Strengthened...

At 500 Am Edt...0900z...the Center Of Tropical Depression Six Was
Located Near Latitude 15.6 North...longitude 41.1 West Or About 1345
Miles...2165 Km...east Of The Lesser Antilles.

The Depression Is Moving Toward The Northwest Near 12 Mph...and This
General Motion Is Expected To Continue For The Next 24 Hours.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 35 Mph...55 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. Some Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next 24
Hours...and The Depression Could Become A Tropical Storm Later Today
Or Tomorrow.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1005 Mb...29.68 Inches.

Repeating The 500 Am Edt Position...15.6 N...41.1 W. Movement
Toward...northwest Near 12 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...35 Mph.
Minimum Central Pressure...1005 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At
1100 Am Edt.

$$
Forecaster Rhome/avila

Dark Knight · Sep 4, 2006

Tropical Depression Six Advisory Number 4
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl Al062006
1100 Am Edt Mon Sep 04 2006

...depression Almost A Tropical Storm...

At 1100 Am Edt...1500z...the Center Of Tropical Depression Six Was
Relocated Near Latitude 16.3 North...longitude 42.7 West Or About
1235 Miles...1990 Km...east Of The Lesser Antilles.

The Depression Is Moving Toward The Northwest Near 12 Mph And This
General Motion Is Expected For The Next 24 Hours.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 35 Mph...55 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. The Depression Could Become A Tropical Storm Later Today Or
Tonight.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1005 Mb...29.68 Inches.

Repeating The 1100 Am Edt Position...16.3 N...42.7 W. Movement
Toward...northwest Near 12 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...35 Mph.
Minimum Central Pressure...1005 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At
500 Pm Edt.

$$
Forecaster Blake/franklin

Dark Knight · Sep 4, 2006

Looks like it's taking aim at Florida, and possibly the Gulf!

englishleigh · Sep 4, 2006

Dark Knight said:
Looks like it's taking aim at Florida, and possibly the Gulf!

Grrrrrrrrreat.

scandi · Sep 4, 2006

Does it seem further N than usual? Remember that last year they mentioned the possibility of a hurricane blowing into NYC? I would think this would be the kind of placement needed for that to happen, although I hope it blows itself out into the Atlantic!

Scandi

Dark Knight · Sep 4, 2006

scandi said:
Does it seem further N than usual? Remember that last year they mentioned the possibility of a hurricane blowing into NYC? I would think this would be the kind of placement needed for that to happen, although I hope it blows itself out into the Atlantic!

Scandi

I see the self-updating map now has it turning a bit northwards, so that could be interesting.

dark_shadows · Sep 4, 2006

Hi Dark Knight,

Thank-you for the thread.You always do a great job on the weather threads you start.
Respectfully,
dark

Dark Knight · Sep 4, 2006

dark_shadows said:
Hi Dark Knight,
Thank-you for the thread.You always do a great job on the weather threads you start.
Respectfully,
dark

You're welcome, and thank you.

My usual partners in crime must be taking the day off, lol!

I razzed pharlap for giving the names to the depressions and even making one disturbance a depression before it was, LOL! She blamed the Weather Channel, hehehee.

Dark Knight · Sep 4, 2006

The stage is set for the biggest hurricane so far this year. The actors know their parts. Very warm water from the central Atlantic to the Bahamas will play a big role. Another lead character is the existing westerly flow across a segment the central Atlantic. Its part in the play will be short as a big high takes center stage to the north. Factoring all these elements together, there is a strong likelihood that Tropical Depression 6 will be a Category 2 or 3 hurricane later this week. Just like a TV drama, the end of this story has yet to be revealed. Stayed tuned to AccuWeather.com for the latest episode.
Story by AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist John Kocet.

http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&article=0

Dark Knight · Sep 4, 2006

Tropical Depression 06 Forecast Eye Path 

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/storms.asp?ocean=atlantic&storm=06&imagetype=move&partner=

BarnGoddess · Sep 4, 2006

DK, as a weather nut and avid cloud watcher, I look forward to your hurricane and tornado watch/warnings. Been hooked since my father encouraged my sister and I to watch the beautiful storms at sea east of Miami. The lightning always fascinated me. Meteorology in college just clinched it. With unlimited skies on the plains of Colorado, I love watching the approaching storms. Also, knowing the hurricane's power up front and personal for many years, I have a healthy respect for the storms.

Thank you and Pharlap for your attention to the details and in keeping us updated on the weather.

BTW, I have marked as one of my favorites, my local radar on AccuWeather. I can quickly go to the site and get my local radar out of Goodland, Kansas NOAA station. It certainly helps when I see the skyline here and need to know how quickly to feed the livestock and take cover....

Also, for those of you in the paths of potential hurricanes, September and October have always been the most active months of activity.

Shadow205 · Sep 5, 2006

WTNT31 KNHC 052033
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
500 PM AST TUE SEP 05 2006

...FLORENCE GETTING A LITTLE STRONGER OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.5 WEST OR ABOUT 960
MILES...1550 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...17.4 N...48.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

poco · Sep 5, 2006

As long as it stays out in the Atlantic, I don't care what it does.......

Dark Knight · Sep 5, 2006

I couldn't edit the title of this to reflect the naming of the storm, so I started a new thread. Hope that's ok with everyone.

Tropical Depression #6

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