08-16-2007, 05:36 AM #1
Update NOAA: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
Issued: 9 August 2007
NOAA is predicting a very high likelihood (85% chance) of an above-normal 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of a below-normal season, according to a consensus of scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center, National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Research Division, and Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.
The outlook calls for an even higher probability of an above-normal season than was predicted in May (75%), and reiterates the expectation for a sharp increase in activity from the near-normal season observed last year. The 2007 season is expected to become the tenth above-normal season since the current active hurricane era began twelve years ago (in 1995). See NOAA’s definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons.
The 2007 outlook calls for a likely range of 13-16 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes. The likely range of the ACE index is 140%-200% of the median. These ranges are slightly tighter than those predicted in May (13-17 named storms, 7-10 hurricanes, 3-5 major hurricanes, and an ACE range of 125%-210%). The tighter ranges reflect not only an increased confidence for an above normal season, but also a reduced likelihood of seeing as many as 10 hurricanes and 17 named storms.
The prediction for an above-normal 2007 hurricane season reflects the combination of two main climate factors: 1) the continuation of conditions that have been conducive to above-normal Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995, and 2) the continued La Niña-like pattern of tropical convection. In addition, temperatures in the western tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea remain well above average (0.56oC). This combination of conditions is known to produce high levels of Atlantic hurricane activity.
08-16-2007, 05:51 AM #2
Thanks for posting this, BB. My family lost our home in 1989 to Hurricane Hugo. That was a long time ago, but I still get anxious every year when Hurrican season approaches. Looks like this year might be a doozy.I do not intend to tiptoe through life only to arrive safely at death!
08-16-2007, 09:46 AM #3Former Member
- Join Date
- Feb 2005
They said this last year too and it didn't happen.
08-16-2007, 12:16 PM #4
I put no stock whatsoever in their predictions. They are never right!!
08-16-2007, 01:42 PM #5Country Girl
- Join Date
- Mar 2006
well if they keep saying the same thing, eventually they will be right.
august is the worst month for us, and its half over. dean is still out there, so i dont know whats gonna happen with that.
08-16-2007, 05:18 PM #6
We're halfway through August and nothing has hit us and only one hurricane has formed. If it's going to be above average, we're going to have to have non stop hurricanes, just about, through November. I don't see it happening. We're going to have another below average year, mark my words. And the people who blame global warming on the hurricane season 2 years ago will have to rethink their positions.
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08-17-2007, 12:51 PM #7
08-17-2007, 01:28 PM #8Former Member
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