04-09-2008, 02:51 PM #1
Above-average hurricane season predicted (again)
A noted hurricane researcher predicted Wednesday that rising water temperatures in the Atlantic will bring a "well above average" storm season this year, including four major storms.
The updated forecast by William Gray's team at Colorado State University calls for 15 named storms in the Atlantic in 2008 and says there's a better than average chance that at least one major hurricane will hit the United States.
An average of 5.9 hurricanes form in the Atlantic each year.
"The Atlantic is a bit warmer than in the past couple of years," said Phil Klotzbach, a member of the forecast team. "That is something we would like to keep an eye on."
Gray had projected seven hurricanes with three major storms in a preliminary forecast in December.
One of the most closely watched hurricane forecasters, Gray has been issuing hurricane predictions for more than 20 years. But he and others have been criticized in recent years for having forecasts that were off the mark.
Gray's team says precise predictions are impossible, and the warnings raise awareness of hurricanes.
"We have not been ashamed of our forecast failures. It is the nature of seasonal forecasting to sometimes be wrong," Klotzbach said in a telephone interview from the Bahamas, where the team announced the forecast at a weather conference.
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04-09-2008, 08:13 PM #2
Thanks, Dark Knight.
The last few years (2006 & 2007) were very light the Atlantic side. Thank goodness. It will be interesting to see how many storms form and head toward the Atlantic/Gulf/Pacific Coasts. I think I have heard that the last two years La Nina was in effect so it lessened the storms but now we are back in La Nino, which increases the storms. I have also read that with global warming, the ocean is warmer and is less likely to help form the storms and keep the storms fueled.
Tammie in Miami
04-09-2008, 08:14 PM #3
Oh No, Here We Go Again...................
Nothing can be worse than four years ago when we had all those hurricanes.
Evacuate, no don't evacuate, evacuate, no don't evacuate. OMG it was horrible. I do love to track them on the computer though.
So often times it happens that we live our life in chains, and we never even know we have the key. ...Eagles, "Already Gone"
04-09-2008, 09:30 PM #4
For what it's worth, I read an article once that talked about the increasing hurricane strengths. Apparently, the weather statistics indicated it was cyclical. The last really nasty cycle ended in the 40's or 50's and we had a less intense cycle that ended within the last couple of years. Now we're back to the intense, nasty stuff again. Supposedly it'll do the same thing over again.
Guess we'll see.
04-09-2008, 10:09 PM #5Former Member
- Join Date
- Feb 2005
I think after those years Poco they over predict to keep us prepared..