Beyond Belief
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The forecast for 94L
NHC is giving 94L a medium 20-50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Wind shear is expected to remain low, less than 10 knots, for the next four days, and the water temperatures will be plenty warm enough to support development. Three of the four global models we trust predict 94L will develop into a tropical depression. The ECMWF develops it and puts 94L into the Lesser Antilles islands on Saturday. The UKMET model does not develop it, but also puts it into the Lesser Antilles islands on Saturday. The GFS develops it but foresees that Bertha will be close enough and strong enough to pull 94L north of the Lesser Antilles about, 6-8 days from now. The NOGAPS model is much slower, and does not foresee a threat to the Lesser Antilles this week. In summary, there is the potential for a tropical depression to form later this week from 94L, and residents of the Lesser Antilles should anticipate the possibility of tropical storm conditions affecting the islands by Saturday.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=983&tstamp=200807
NHC is giving 94L a medium 20-50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Wind shear is expected to remain low, less than 10 knots, for the next four days, and the water temperatures will be plenty warm enough to support development. Three of the four global models we trust predict 94L will develop into a tropical depression. The ECMWF develops it and puts 94L into the Lesser Antilles islands on Saturday. The UKMET model does not develop it, but also puts it into the Lesser Antilles islands on Saturday. The GFS develops it but foresees that Bertha will be close enough and strong enough to pull 94L north of the Lesser Antilles about, 6-8 days from now. The NOGAPS model is much slower, and does not foresee a threat to the Lesser Antilles this week. In summary, there is the potential for a tropical depression to form later this week from 94L, and residents of the Lesser Antilles should anticipate the possibility of tropical storm conditions affecting the islands by Saturday.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=983&tstamp=200807