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  1. #1
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    A new look at Kidnapping gone bad

    The objective here isn't really to try to look at this issue from the opposite point of view - rather, the objective is just to reexamine how a KN could go bad (e.g. why was it not carried out ?) and what must be true of such theories.

    Different people (RDI/IDI) give different weight, e.g. different probability, to different pieces of evidence. So, it's a good idea to include any "assumptions" being made as we go through this.

    The assumption I make is that no one came in or out the basement window. I won't rehash all the details here, it's easily searchable.

    So, one thing that must be true of a KN gone bad is that the kidnapper(s) came in a door or a window on the ground floor, or possibly the second floor.

    The second thing that must be true is that if the KN came in after the family got home for the night, the KN knows he didn't set off the alarm.
    He knows the alarm is off, so he knows he can go out the same way he came in.

    The third thing we know is, if the KN came in hours before the family got home for the night, and was hiding somewhere in the house, then he wouldn't know whether or not JR would set the alarm before going to bed - unless the KN was close enough to the family to know that the alarm wasn't often used. He would either have to be able to tell from the keypad whether or not the alarm was set, or he'd have to have a plan for getting out w/o setting off the alarm.

    The fourth thing we know is that the KN got JBR down to the basement w/o waking the family. If he got her that far, then he could have got her out of the house.

    So, from those four things, we can make these reasonable conclusions about different scenarios;

    1. The intruder didn't know the family well, and therefore couldn't know whether or not the alarm would be set.

    1a, he can't tell from looking at the keypad whether or not the alarm was set. Therefore, he would have to make a plan for his escape from the house w/o setting off the alarm. Possibly the suitcase at the basement window was preparation for an escape? Possibly he tried to get JBR out the window but could not - therefore shifted to plan B? Or maybe there was no plan B, but he got frustrated after finding he could not get her out of the basement window?

    I question why the KN would plan this crime without a good escape route from the house. The other problem is of course, the KN still got out, and not by the basement window. Why then, didn't he take JBR that way? The only explanation I can think of is that perhaps he was willing to risk setting off the alarm, on his own, but wasn't willing to do that while carrying JBR. He might be able to run fast enough on his own, but not while carrying the girl.

    Still, why didn't he go out the basement window himself, thus getting away w/o setting off the alarm ? That was doable. Perhaps he didn't want to risk getting caught as he struggled through the basement window well ?


    So there is no confusion, let me just state that I am fully aware the alarm wasn't set, I'm just going through a sceario where the KN didn't know that.

    I regard scenario 1a as being very low in probability.

    1b The KN could tell from looking at the keypad that the alarm wasn't set. He would then take JBR out a door.

    Scenario 1b of course can be dismissed - He didn't take her, but knowing the alarm was off, there was no reason not to use a door.


    2. The KN came in hours before, and knew the alarm wouldn't be set. (someone who knew the family well) why didn't he just take JBR out the way he came in?

    The answer of course is that he would have, so scenario 2 can, imo, be dismissed.

    3. If the KN came in after the family was asleep, then again, he knew he didn't set off the alarm. Why not just take JBR out the way he came in?

    Scenario 3 can also be dismissed.

    4. The KN simply changed his mind, for whatever reason. This scenario doesn't depend on the KN knowing whether or not the alarm was set. He might have changed his mind even if he knew he could just walk out a door with her.

    The question of course is why did he change his mind?

    One popular IDI answer is the KN did it to "get back at JR". But why not take the girl away? Death, if not leading to "closure" at least allows the family to know what happened to the child. Wouldn't it have caused more pain to take her away?

    If the real motive was revenge, then it's questionable that it was ever a real kidnapping plan to begin with - so why the RN?

    Perhaps it was a paedophile who couldn't wait until he got her home?

    Scenario 4 is possible, but imo, fairly unlikely.


    5. Multiple persons were KNs, and one of them took her to the basement, possibly w/o the other accomplices knowing of it, or possibly
    the "leader" of the gang got his way even over the objection of the others ?

    Though I don't regard it as likely that 2 or 3 perps were in the home w/o leaving a trace, this does seem the best explanation of why a KN would not be completed.


    What have I overlooked? Where has my reasoning been faulty?
    I'm just playing detective here. I have no idea who killed JonBenet. It's just an opinion.

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chrishope View Post
    The objective here isn't really to try to look at this issue from the opposite point of view - rather, the objective is just to reexamine how a KN could go bad (e.g. why was it not carried out ?) and what must be true of such theories.

    Different people (RDI/IDI) give different weight, e.g. different probability, to different pieces of evidence. So, it's a good idea to include any "assumptions" being made as we go through this.

    The assumption I make is that no one came in or out the basement window. I won't rehash all the details here, it's easily searchable.

    So, one thing that must be true of a KN gone bad is that the kidnapper(s) came in a door or a window on the ground floor, or possibly the second floor.

    The second thing that must be true is that if the KN came in after the family got home for the night, the KN knows he didn't set off the alarm.
    He knows the alarm is off, so he knows he can go out the same way he came in.

    The third thing we know is, if the KN came in hours before the family got home for the night, and was hiding somewhere in the house, then he wouldn't know whether or not JR would set the alarm before going to bed - unless the KN was close enough to the family to know that the alarm wasn't often used. He would either have to be able to tell from the keypad whether or not the alarm was set, or he'd have to have a plan for getting out w/o setting off the alarm.

    The fourth thing we know is that the KN got JBR down to the basement w/o waking the family. If he got her that far, then he could have got her out of the house.

    So, from those four things, we can make these reasonable conclusions about different scenarios;

    1. The intruder didn't know the family well, and therefore couldn't know whether or not the alarm would be set.

    1a, he can't tell from looking at the keypad whether or not the alarm was set. Therefore, he would have to make a plan for his escape from the house w/o setting off the alarm. Possibly the suitcase at the basement window was preparation for an escape? Possibly he tried to get JBR out the window but could not - therefore shifted to plan B? Or maybe there was no plan B, but he got frustrated after finding he could not get her out of the basement window?

    I question why the KN would plan this crime without a good escape route from the house. The other problem is of course, the KN still got out, and not by the basement window. Why then, didn't he take JBR that way? The only explanation I can think of is that perhaps he was willing to risk setting off the alarm, on his own, but wasn't willing to do that while carrying JBR. He might be able to run fast enough on his own, but not while carrying the girl.

    Still, why didn't he go out the basement window himself, thus getting away w/o setting off the alarm ? That was doable. Perhaps he didn't want to risk getting caught as he struggled through the basement window well ?


    So there is no confusion, let me just state that I am fully aware the alarm wasn't set, I'm just going through a sceario where the KN didn't know that.

    I regard scenario 1a as being very low in probability.

    1b The KN could tell from looking at the keypad that the alarm wasn't set. He would then take JBR out a door.

    Scenario 1b of course can be dismissed - He didn't take her, but knowing the alarm was off, there was no reason not to use a door.


    2. The KN came in hours before, and knew the alarm wouldn't be set. (someone who knew the family well) why didn't he just take JBR out the way he came in?

    The answer of course is that he would have, so scenario 2 can, imo, be dismissed.

    3. If the KN came in after the family was asleep, then again, he knew he didn't set off the alarm. Why not just take JBR out the way he came in?

    Scenario 3 can also be dismissed.

    4. The KN simply changed his mind, for whatever reason. This scenario doesn't depend on the KN knowing whether or not the alarm was set. He might have changed his mind even if he knew he could just walk out a door with her.

    The question of course is why did he change his mind?

    One popular IDI answer is the KN did it to "get back at JR". But why not take the girl away? Death, if not leading to "closure" at least allows the family to know what happened to the child. Wouldn't it have caused more pain to take her away?

    If the real motive was revenge, then it's questionable that it was ever a real kidnapping plan to begin with - so why the RN?

    Perhaps it was a paedophile who couldn't wait until he got her home?

    Scenario 4 is possible, but imo, fairly unlikely.


    5. Multiple persons were KNs, and one of them took her to the basement, possibly w/o the other accomplices knowing of it, or possibly
    the "leader" of the gang got his way even over the objection of the others ?

    Though I don't regard it as likely that 2 or 3 perps were in the home w/o leaving a trace, this does seem the best explanation of why a KN would not be completed.


    What have I overlooked? Where has my reasoning been faulty?
    Chrishope,
    Why should the alarm matter, once out the door with JonBenet, any kidnapper could be away in a car in a matter of minutes? Or he can check the alarm setting prior to leaving?

    Another favorite intruder variant is a family friend or someone the close e.g. extended family possibly with key access to the house, or knew where the spare key was hidden?

    The problem with all these theories is why was JonBenet killed? That is why should a kidnapper kill and leave his bargaining option behind, or why should a family aquaintance allegedly molesting JonBenet decide to kill her rather than continue?

    The Intruder Theory is not consistent with the current forensic evidence.



    .

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chrishope View Post
    The objective here isn't really to try to look at this issue from the opposite point of view - rather, the objective is just to reexamine how a KN could go bad (e.g. why was it not carried out ?) and what must be true of such theories.

    Different people (RDI/IDI) give different weight, e.g. different probability, to different pieces of evidence. So, it's a good idea to include any "assumptions" being made as we go through this.

    The assumption I make is that no one came in or out the basement window. I won't rehash all the details here, it's easily searchable.

    So, one thing that must be true of a KN gone bad is that the kidnapper(s) came in a door or a window on the ground floor, or possibly the second floor.

    The second thing that must be true is that if the KN came in after the family got home for the night, the KN knows he didn't set off the alarm.
    He knows the alarm is off, so he knows he can go out the same way he came in.

    The third thing we know is, if the KN came in hours before the family got home for the night, and was hiding somewhere in the house, then he wouldn't know whether or not JR would set the alarm before going to bed - unless the KN was close enough to the family to know that the alarm wasn't often used. He would either have to be able to tell from the keypad whether or not the alarm was set, or he'd have to have a plan for getting out w/o setting off the alarm.

    The fourth thing we know is that the KN got JBR down to the basement w/o waking the family. If he got her that far, then he could have got her out of the house.

    So, from those four things, we can make these reasonable conclusions about different scenarios;

    1. The intruder didn't know the family well, and therefore couldn't know whether or not the alarm would be set.

    1a, he can't tell from looking at the keypad whether or not the alarm was set. Therefore, he would have to make a plan for his escape from the house w/o setting off the alarm. Possibly the suitcase at the basement window was preparation for an escape? Possibly he tried to get JBR out the window but could not - therefore shifted to plan B? Or maybe there was no plan B, but he got frustrated after finding he could not get her out of the basement window?

    I question why the KN would plan this crime without a good escape route from the house. The other problem is of course, the KN still got out, and not by the basement window. Why then, didn't he take JBR that way? The only explanation I can think of is that perhaps he was willing to risk setting off the alarm, on his own, but wasn't willing to do that while carrying JBR. He might be able to run fast enough on his own, but not while carrying the girl.

    Still, why didn't he go out the basement window himself, thus getting away w/o setting off the alarm ? That was doable. Perhaps he didn't want to risk getting caught as he struggled through the basement window well ?


    So there is no confusion, let me just state that I am fully aware the alarm wasn't set, I'm just going through a sceario where the KN didn't know that.

    I regard scenario 1a as being very low in probability.

    1b The KN could tell from looking at the keypad that the alarm wasn't set. He would then take JBR out a door.

    Scenario 1b of course can be dismissed - He didn't take her, but knowing the alarm was off, there was no reason not to use a door.


    2. The KN came in hours before, and knew the alarm wouldn't be set. (someone who knew the family well) why didn't he just take JBR out the way he came in?

    The answer of course is that he would have, so scenario 2 can, imo, be dismissed.

    3. If the KN came in after the family was asleep, then again, he knew he didn't set off the alarm. Why not just take JBR out the way he came in?

    Scenario 3 can also be dismissed.

    4. The KN simply changed his mind, for whatever reason. This scenario doesn't depend on the KN knowing whether or not the alarm was set. He might have changed his mind even if he knew he could just walk out a door with her.

    The question of course is why did he change his mind?

    One popular IDI answer is the KN did it to "get back at JR". But why not take the girl away? Death, if not leading to "closure" at least allows the family to know what happened to the child. Wouldn't it have caused more pain to take her away?

    If the real motive was revenge, then it's questionable that it was ever a real kidnapping plan to begin with - so why the RN?

    Perhaps it was a paedophile who couldn't wait until he got her home?

    Scenario 4 is possible, but imo, fairly unlikely.


    5. Multiple persons were KNs, and one of them took her to the basement, possibly w/o the other accomplices knowing of it, or possibly
    the "leader" of the gang got his way even over the objection of the others ?

    Though I don't regard it as likely that 2 or 3 perps were in the home w/o leaving a trace, this does seem the best explanation of why a KN would not be completed.


    What have I overlooked? Where has my reasoning been faulty?
    In bold is faulty reasoning.


    The faulty reasoning assumes that JBR could go from her bedroom to the car without any adjustment. She would be in her pajamas, and she would be likely garrotted. Doesn't she need to 'breathe'? Or were you expecting the perp to ask JBR to 'please be quiet while I move you directly to the car?' Thats just preposterous.

    As you can see, this reasoning is faulty because JBR can't simply be moved from her bedroom to a waiting car.

    I'm not sure anyone who is predisposed to RDI is capable of considering or envisioning what had to have happened in an actual IDI scenario.

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by Holdontoyourhat View Post
    In bold is faulty reasoning.


    The faulty reasoning assumes that JBR could go from her bedroom to the car without any adjustment. She would be in her pajamas, and she would be likely garrotted. Doesn't she need to 'breathe'? Or were you expecting the perp to ask JBR to 'please be quiet while I move you directly to the car?' Thats just preposterous.

    As you can see, this reasoning is faulty because JBR can't simply be moved from her bedroom to a waiting car.

    I'm not sure anyone who is predisposed to RDI is capable of considering or envisioning what had to have happened in an actual IDI scenario.
    Holdontoyourhat,
    Such intellect, thats why your here, we need your vision ...

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by UKGuy View Post
    Holdontoyourhat,
    Such intellect, thats why your here, we need your vision ...
    Such sincerity (lol).

  6. #6
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    UKGuy

    The Intruder Theory is not consistent with the current forensic evidence.

    I agree. I'm RDI, I just thought it might be useful to reexamine the KN gone bad theory.

    Your question - why did the KNer leave his barganing chip behind? - goes right to the heart of the matter. I'm just trying to explore reasons why he might have done that - though to me, none of them seem very likely.

    Holdontoyourhat

    The faulty reasoning assumes that JBR could go from her bedroom to the car without any adjustment. She would be in her pajamas, and she would be likely garrotted. Doesn't she need to 'breathe'? Or were you expecting the perp to ask JBR to 'please be quiet while I move you directly to the car?' Thats just preposterous.

    As you can see, this reasoning is faulty because JBR can't simply be moved from her bedroom to a waiting car.


    I don't follow your logic. She could be moved from her bedroom, down two flights of stairs and into the basement, while somehow keeping her quiet, but she couldn't be taken out the door and to a car? Absurd!

    I'm not sure anyone who is predisposed to RDI is capable of considering or envisioning what had to have happened in an actual IDI scenario.

    Why don't you enlighten us?
    I'm just playing detective here. I have no idea who killed JonBenet. It's just an opinion.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chrishope View Post

    I don't follow your logic. She could be moved from her bedroom, down two flights of stairs and into the basement, while somehow keeping her quiet, but she couldn't be taken out the door and to a car? Absurd!
    What happens if the car isn't in the driveway or even in front of the house? Again, were you expecting her to hold her breath, or for the perp to ask her nicely to behave?

    IOW the car could be a lot further away than the basement.

    Or, assume that an intruder intending to kidnap JBR is taking her downstairs. He could go directly outside to a waiting car, but instead takes her to the basement in order to ______________.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Holdontoyourhat View Post
    What happens if the car isn't in the driveway or even in front of the house? Again, were you expecting her to hold her breath, or for the perp to ask her nicely to behave?

    IOW the car could be a lot further away than the basement.

    Or, assume that an intruder intending to kidnap JBR is taking her downstairs. He could go directly outside to a waiting car, but instead takes her to the basement in order to ______________.
    What's with the holding breath nonsense? A gag effectively silences her, but she can still breath though her nose.

    Why would the perp park 6 blocks away? OK, maybe he doesn't want to park in the driveway, but how about on the street, 30 yards away?
    I'm just playing detective here. I have no idea who killed JonBenet. It's just an opinion.

  9. #9
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    Holdon, UKGuy, you two could be the next Stan & Ollie!
    I'm as mad as HELL and I'm NOT gonna take it anymore!.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Holdontoyourhat View Post
    As you can see, this reasoning is faulty because JBR can't simply be moved from her bedroom to a waiting car.
    Why not? Polly Klaas was.


    -Tea


  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by icedtea4me View Post
    Why not? Polly Klaas was.


    -Tea
    I would think that if a stranger met JBR in her bedroom, she would scream. There would be no negotiations or anything. JBR would scream and the parents would be awake.

    Thats why not.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Holdontoyourhat View Post
    I would think that if a stranger met JBR in her bedroom, she would scream. There would be no negotiations or anything. JBR would scream and the parents would be awake.

    Thats why not.
    Polly Klaas didn't scream... neither did her friends.

    Elizabeth Smart didn't scream.... neither did her sister.

    It's very easy to either SCARE a victim silent or to cover their mouth as soon as you approach them.

    I think screaming is more likely to happen in movies than in real life situations.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by LI_Mom View Post
    Polly Klaas didn't scream... neither did her friends.

    Elizabeth Smart didn't scream.... neither did her sister.

    It's very easy to either SCARE a victim silent or to cover their mouth as soon as you approach them.

    I think screaming is more likely to happen in movies than in real life situations.
    I think this topic is worth its own thread.

  14. #14
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    Bottom line is "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush."

    No one knew JB was dead until she was found in the basement. A dead JB, taken outside the home and away from the crime scene is worth much more than the child found dead in the home IF the Motive is Kidnapping.
    "Opinion is the medium between knowledge and ignorance."~ Plato
    ~The above reflects only my opinion...

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by angelwngs View Post
    Bottom line is "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush."

    No one knew JB was dead until she was found in the basement. A dead JB, taken outside the home and away from the crime scene is worth much more than the child found dead in the home IF the Motive is Kidnapping.
    angelwngs,
    Thats one reason we know its not a kidnapping, the other is the redressing of JonBenet, after molesting her. Its patently a staged crime-scene!



    .