The objective here isn't really to try to look at this issue from the opposite point of view - rather, the objective is just to reexamine how a KN could go bad (e.g. why was it not carried out ?) and what must be true of such theories.
Different people (RDI/IDI) give different weight, e.g. different probability, to different pieces of evidence. So, it's a good idea to include any "assumptions" being made as we go through this.
The assumption I make is that no one came in or out the basement window. I won't rehash all the details here, it's easily searchable.
So, one thing that must be true of a KN gone bad is that the kidnapper(s) came in a door or a window on the ground floor, or possibly the second floor.
The second thing that must be true is that if the KN came in after the family got home for the night, the KN knows he didn't set off the alarm.
He knows the alarm is off, so he knows he can go out the same way he came in.
The third thing we know is, if the KN came in hours before the family got home for the night, and was hiding somewhere in the house, then he wouldn't know whether or not JR would set the alarm before going to bed - unless the KN was close enough to the family to know that the alarm wasn't often used. He would either have to be able to tell from the keypad whether or not the alarm was set, or he'd have to have a plan for getting out w/o setting off the alarm.
The fourth thing we know is that the KN got JBR down to the basement w/o waking the family. If he got her that far, then he could have got her out of the house.
So, from those four things, we can make these reasonable conclusions about different scenarios;
1. The intruder didn't know the family well, and therefore couldn't know whether or not the alarm would be set.
1a, he can't tell from looking at the keypad whether or not the alarm was set. Therefore, he would have to make a plan for his escape from the house w/o setting off the alarm. Possibly the suitcase at the basement window was preparation for an escape? Possibly he tried to get JBR out the window but could not - therefore shifted to plan B? Or maybe there was no plan B, but he got frustrated after finding he could not get her out of the basement window?
I question why the KN would plan this crime without a good escape route from the house. The other problem is of course, the KN still got out, and not by the basement window. Why then, didn't he take JBR that way? The only explanation I can think of is that perhaps he was willing to risk setting off the alarm, on his own, but wasn't willing to do that while carrying JBR. He might be able to run fast enough on his own, but not while carrying the girl.
Still, why didn't he go out the basement window himself, thus getting away w/o setting off the alarm ? That was doable. Perhaps he didn't want to risk getting caught as he struggled through the basement window well ?
So there is no confusion, let me just state that I am fully aware the alarm wasn't set, I'm just going through a sceario where the KN didn't know that.
I regard scenario 1a as being very low in probability.
1b The KN could tell from looking at the keypad that the alarm wasn't set. He would then take JBR out a door.
Scenario 1b of course can be dismissed - He didn't take her, but knowing the alarm was off, there was no reason not to use a door.
2. The KN came in hours before, and knew the alarm wouldn't be set. (someone who knew the family well) why didn't he just take JBR out the way he came in?
The answer of course is that he would have, so scenario 2 can, imo, be dismissed.
3. If the KN came in after the family was asleep, then again, he knew he didn't set off the alarm. Why not just take JBR out the way he came in?
Scenario 3 can also be dismissed.
4. The KN simply changed his mind, for whatever reason. This scenario doesn't depend on the KN knowing whether or not the alarm was set. He might have changed his mind even if he knew he could just walk out a door with her.
The question of course is why did he change his mind?
One popular IDI answer is the KN did it to "get back at JR". But why not take the girl away? Death, if not leading to "closure" at least allows the family to know what happened to the child. Wouldn't it have caused more pain to take her away?
If the real motive was revenge, then it's questionable that it was ever a real kidnapping plan to begin with - so why the RN?
Perhaps it was a paedophile who couldn't wait until he got her home?
Scenario 4 is possible, but imo, fairly unlikely.
5. Multiple persons were KNs, and one of them took her to the basement, possibly w/o the other accomplices knowing of it, or possibly
the "leader" of the gang got his way even over the objection of the others ?
Though I don't regard it as likely that 2 or 3 perps were in the home w/o leaving a trace, this does seem the best explanation of why a KN would not be completed.
What have I overlooked? Where has my reasoning been faulty?
Different people (RDI/IDI) give different weight, e.g. different probability, to different pieces of evidence. So, it's a good idea to include any "assumptions" being made as we go through this.
The assumption I make is that no one came in or out the basement window. I won't rehash all the details here, it's easily searchable.
So, one thing that must be true of a KN gone bad is that the kidnapper(s) came in a door or a window on the ground floor, or possibly the second floor.
The second thing that must be true is that if the KN came in after the family got home for the night, the KN knows he didn't set off the alarm.
He knows the alarm is off, so he knows he can go out the same way he came in.
The third thing we know is, if the KN came in hours before the family got home for the night, and was hiding somewhere in the house, then he wouldn't know whether or not JR would set the alarm before going to bed - unless the KN was close enough to the family to know that the alarm wasn't often used. He would either have to be able to tell from the keypad whether or not the alarm was set, or he'd have to have a plan for getting out w/o setting off the alarm.
The fourth thing we know is that the KN got JBR down to the basement w/o waking the family. If he got her that far, then he could have got her out of the house.
So, from those four things, we can make these reasonable conclusions about different scenarios;
1. The intruder didn't know the family well, and therefore couldn't know whether or not the alarm would be set.
1a, he can't tell from looking at the keypad whether or not the alarm was set. Therefore, he would have to make a plan for his escape from the house w/o setting off the alarm. Possibly the suitcase at the basement window was preparation for an escape? Possibly he tried to get JBR out the window but could not - therefore shifted to plan B? Or maybe there was no plan B, but he got frustrated after finding he could not get her out of the basement window?
I question why the KN would plan this crime without a good escape route from the house. The other problem is of course, the KN still got out, and not by the basement window. Why then, didn't he take JBR that way? The only explanation I can think of is that perhaps he was willing to risk setting off the alarm, on his own, but wasn't willing to do that while carrying JBR. He might be able to run fast enough on his own, but not while carrying the girl.
Still, why didn't he go out the basement window himself, thus getting away w/o setting off the alarm ? That was doable. Perhaps he didn't want to risk getting caught as he struggled through the basement window well ?
So there is no confusion, let me just state that I am fully aware the alarm wasn't set, I'm just going through a sceario where the KN didn't know that.
I regard scenario 1a as being very low in probability.
1b The KN could tell from looking at the keypad that the alarm wasn't set. He would then take JBR out a door.
Scenario 1b of course can be dismissed - He didn't take her, but knowing the alarm was off, there was no reason not to use a door.
2. The KN came in hours before, and knew the alarm wouldn't be set. (someone who knew the family well) why didn't he just take JBR out the way he came in?
The answer of course is that he would have, so scenario 2 can, imo, be dismissed.
3. If the KN came in after the family was asleep, then again, he knew he didn't set off the alarm. Why not just take JBR out the way he came in?
Scenario 3 can also be dismissed.
4. The KN simply changed his mind, for whatever reason. This scenario doesn't depend on the KN knowing whether or not the alarm was set. He might have changed his mind even if he knew he could just walk out a door with her.
The question of course is why did he change his mind?
One popular IDI answer is the KN did it to "get back at JR". But why not take the girl away? Death, if not leading to "closure" at least allows the family to know what happened to the child. Wouldn't it have caused more pain to take her away?
If the real motive was revenge, then it's questionable that it was ever a real kidnapping plan to begin with - so why the RN?
Perhaps it was a paedophile who couldn't wait until he got her home?
Scenario 4 is possible, but imo, fairly unlikely.
5. Multiple persons were KNs, and one of them took her to the basement, possibly w/o the other accomplices knowing of it, or possibly
the "leader" of the gang got his way even over the objection of the others ?
Though I don't regard it as likely that 2 or 3 perps were in the home w/o leaving a trace, this does seem the best explanation of why a KN would not be completed.
What have I overlooked? Where has my reasoning been faulty?
