10-04-2009, 11:54 AM #346
10-04-2009, 01:21 PM #347
Thank you so much for your detailed explanation. It was exactly what my brain needed to better understand the possibilities. If it was on the 16th, I agree it has to be option 4 due to it being so much closer to Tony's than G&C's it just makes sense she would going to that Walmart before or after being at Tony's.
10-05-2009, 08:31 PM #348
Family communications 6/16/08:
7:45 am home phone calls Casey's cell--goes to voice mail, 0 minutes.
This could be just Casey calling her own phone to find it. No ping information for this call.
3:02 pm George's cell calls the house phone--.28 minutes, just long enough to see if someone would pick up.
This is a strange call given George's testimony that he saw Casey and Caylee leave at 12:50 pm. Cindy was at work. Who did he think would answer the phone?
3:04 pm George's cell calls Casey's cell after trying the house phone first--0 minutes but doesn't go to voice mail.
Casey is in the area of the house at this time.
4:10 pm Casey's cell calls Cindy's work--.57 minutes. Probably didn't catch her at her desk and ended up speaking to receptionist, because...
4:11 pm-4:13 pm Casey's cell tries Cindy's cell 4 times--no connection?
4:14 pm Casey's cell calls Cindy's work--1.63 minutes.
Casey is in the area of the house at this time, but after the call to Cindy's work immediately starts heading north--toward Tony? Gentiva (Cindy's work)? Walmart?--and texts Tony
4:25 pm Casey's cell tries Cindy's cell--no connection? Casey is near the Amscot area by now.
5:56 pm Cindy's cell calls Casey's cell--leaves 2-minute voice mail. This call shows up on Cindy's records but only shows as "voicemail waiting" on Casey's records--could she have turned her phone off?? Casey is near Tony's apartment by now.
6:31-6:32 pm Casey's cell tries Cindy's cell twice--no connection? It appears that Casey has not yet checked her voice mail.
6:32 pm Casey's cell calls the house phone--.28 minutes again, so probably just long enough to see if someone picked up before the answering machine kicked in.
6:33 pm Casey checks her voice mail, and presumably listens to Cindy's 2-minute message.
Casey is near Tony's apartment at this time.
7:06 pm Casey's cell calls the house phone--1.38 minutes. Cindy should be home by this time. Casey is near Tony's apartment. Is this when Casey supposedly told Cindy she would be staying with Caylee at "Zanny's" place?
10-05-2009, 08:40 PM #349
Did Tony say when Casey showed up at his apartment? I believe the Blockbuster security tape shows them arriving just before 8:00 pm. Tony was on the phone with his friend from 7:02-7:42 pm and again from 7:51-8:02 pm, so I suspect Casey showed up at 7:42 pm and he hung up the phone to greet her and decide where to go.
But she showed up in the AREA of his apartment sometime between about 5-6 pm.
10-05-2009, 11:57 PM #350
Tony was on the phone in the 7:54PM frame of the Blockbuster pics and off by the 8:04PM frame. It appears the timestamp on the surveillance camera synchs pretty well w/ the phone records.
Now we have a few points that we can use to try and see if we can narrow things down further. IOW...with a decent starting point of tower hand offs and a couple of pings near Tony's apt. we can see if a trip to Walmart was possible in time to get back & ping @ Tony's when she did...also giving us some idea of the time eaten up in the process...IYKWIM.
1) Between 4:19 and 4:21PM Casey turned the corner on the cell tower @ 21 Chickasaw Trail. That'll give us a decent starting point.OK, then...diving in...
2) Between 4:21 and 4:25PM Casey changed towers to the 1320 Chickasaw tower BUT she wasn't far enough west or far enough north yet to ping in the sector of the tower that she would typically ping on when she was @ Tony's.
3) After 4:25 there is a period of inactivity until 4:53PM when she pinged consistent w/ Tony's apt. (Call it Candidate 4a)
4) After 4:53PM there is another period of inactivity until 5:57PM when she again pinged consistent w/ Tony's apt. (Call it Candidate 4b)
5) All of the ~6:31PM pings are consistent w/ Tony's apt. There might be just enough time for a quick trip up to Walmart & back between 5:57PM and 6:30PM (Call it Candidate 4c)
6) So, finally, we're left w/ the period between Casey's call to Cindy that began @ 6:31PM and her next ping @ 7:06PM when she succeeded in reaching Cindy...pinging from Tony's apt. before they headed off to Blockbuster (Call it Candidate 4d)
7) Then @ 7:54PM Casey & Tony entered Blockbuster...so we can back up from their by figuring out travel time from Tony's apt. to the store.
Soo...will take a closer look, but, @ first glance it seems Casey could've either stopped off @/near Tony's soon after 4:25PM for awhile...then headed up to Walmart and returned.
Casey could've done something else to pause in the area (e.g. drove/stopped by Gentiva) and just coincidentally driven by the tower near Tony's ~4:25PM on the way to Walmart
It seems an initial stop @ Tony's soon after 4:25PM would be consistent w/ the 23 minute travel time needed to get from G&C's w/ a 4:11PM departure from there (which her pings nail precisely). 4:11 + :23 = 4:34PM arrival @ Tony's.
Noteworthy that Tony's cell went inactive between 4:19PM and 7:02PM. Tony's pings place him @/near his apt. Hmmm...
The 4:19PM call was an incoming call from Casey...prolly something like, "I'll be there in a minute."
Then @ 4:21PM Casey tried to call Jesse 2x. So....Casey certainly wasn't in Tony's presence yet
Then @ 4:25PM Casey tried Cindy one last time and still didn't get an answer.
- Consider the ramifications of Casey stopping by Tony's @ 4:34PM and no activity on either of their cells - that they initiated - until Casey placed a call to Cindy @ 6:31PM (Casey apparently seeing that Cindy left her a vmail @ 5:57PM)
- Consider that AFAIK Tony didn't see Caylee 6/16.
- Consider that same pre-occupation between 4:34PM and 6:31PM would be a reasonable excuse for Casey to miss the incoming call from Cindy @ 5:57PM.
Now consider that Casey's call pattern between 6:31PM-6:34PM is basically the same as the earlier "flurry" that afternoon when she pulled outta G&C's...another "flurry" of 4 calls in under 3 minutes. Also, FWIW, note that Casey did this same "flurry" thing on 6/9 when she was leaving G&C's IIRC. Pointing this out to establish a pattern of behavior...that suggests to me that Casey was pulling outta Tony's attempting to call Cindy @ 6:31PM on her way to Walmart. See what I'm talkin' about? Casey didn't call Cindy in Tony's presence, eh? Candidate 4d period began @ 6:31PM
By 7:06PM-7:21PM Casey pinged back @/near Tony's apt. This gives us 'tween 6:34PM and 7:06PM for a trip to Walmart...for Caylee to use the bathroom and be sighted by JT after surviving...... waiting in either the hot Pontiac...or Amy's hot car for a couple of very long hours...bless her heart...
Consider per the weatherunderground data for 6:16 @ 4:34PM...the ambient temperature was ~74F...compensating for a trunk temperature it would be ~78F cooling to 75F by 6:34PM...survivable...for 2hrs...
And Casey, perhaps thought it worked once...WTH...and tried it again when she got back to Tony's and gave Cindy a call sayin' they'd be out for the night Candidate 4d period ended @ 7:06PM...perhaps Casey had second thoughts and tried Amy @ 7:20PM unsuccessfully before she headed back up to Tony's apt. ~<7:42PM. This notion of calling Cindy back before heading up to Tony's apt. also kinda fits as a bookend to the 'flurry' that began this period too IYKWIM.
Per Google Maps. Drive time from Tony's apt. to Casselberry Walmart is 10 minutes. So....20 minutes roundtrip drive time. Doing the math...7:06PM - 6:34PM = 32 minutes.... 32 - 20 = 12 minutes. Is 12 minutes long enough for a bathroom break...maybe get a drink? Can also allow that the pings aren'y precise. IOW Casey could've been on the move already @ 6:34...and still on the move @ 7:06PM giving a slightly longer window of time for a Walmart trip. Adding that the drive time might've been beneficial in getting the AC going to cool the car down for Caylee IYKWIM. .
In summary...here are the Candidates for a Walmart trip and the time that would've been available to be @ Walmart:
4a 4:25-4:53PM = 28 mins. - 20 min drivetime = <8 minute visit.
4b 4:53-5:57PM = 64 mins. - 20 mins drivetime = <44 minute visit
4c 5:57-6:31PM = 33 mins. - 20 mins drivetime = <7 minute visit
4d 6:31-7:06PM = 35 mins. - 20 mins drivetime = <15 minute visit
Pure speculaton...but both Candidates 4b & 4d shape up pretty well for JT's sighting. Given all the other context I kinda prefer 4d.
ETA: Noted in responding to a question for Spangle that Candidate 4b is the only slot that would allow a roundtrip trip back to G&C's. It would've allowed Casey & Caylee to be @ G&C's 5:16-5:34PM...or a 18 minute visit @ Hopespring when the 23 minute travel time to/from is accounted. Absent a call from Casey to the Hopespring home phone IMHO she didn't go back...however...pings would allow it.
Last edited by BondJamesBond; 10-06-2009 at 10:12 AM.
10-06-2009, 09:36 AM #351Registered User
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I like 4 d too. By this time she already had a plan. She had let CA know that Caylee would be with the "Nanny". What did she go to Walmart for Benadryl,Tylenol,Motrin? Does that Walmart have a kids area that you can leave your child in while you shop? Walmarts here do not. But all the grocery stores do. Wow how important would a video/receipt be of that shopping trip!! I dont seem to recall Tone saying that he saw Caylee that day for sure,but I dont recall him seeing KC before going to BB either..hmmm
Last edited by Whyamisointerested; 10-06-2009 at 09:37 AM.
10-06-2009, 10:24 AM #352
A little afternoon interlude might escape Tony's initial statements IYKWIM. I think his statement gave us a general idea of Casey's alibi for Caylee's whereabouts...but IIRC his statements have been silent on the details of Casey's arrival 6/16PM (e.g. exact time, activities, etc. pre-Blockbuster). Perhaps the subject of those overnight "lovee-dovey" texts was a bit of foreplay IYKWIM. Those details are prolly in a yet-to-be-released section of his statement along w/ the texts if they were able to retrieve them from Tony's phone.
10-06-2009, 06:17 PM #353
a couple of thoughts for everyone to consider, but the bulk of my observations go to BJB.
We "know" JT was wrong about the 6/9 - it was actually 6/"10 as supported by the ping data. I think it's very possible he's equally wrong about about 6/16 - "the day after fathers day" Is he off by one day, like in the 6/9-10 scenario? Could it be 6/17, the pings (or lack of) and timing would seem to support it.
Moreover Bond notes the weather on 6/16 as "surviveable" and my weather notes and references support that (plus a big t-storm reported at the airport just before Geo. call to Casey on 6/16). Maybe she got away with it one night. Maybe she had (as I suspect) a favorite spider hole. Just a feeling on that. The roomies ALL agree that she wasn't there 24-7 until the end of the month.
6/17 to Walmart (she'd go north, not worth risking being seen by Cindy). Final aggravation? She goes radio silent for several hours (ostensibly the Chris S visit in TLs jeep, though I have some pet ideas about that). That timing would pretty much put dump date consistently within 2.6 parameters
Last edited by BigFatMommyDog; 10-06-2009 at 06:21 PM. Reason: goofy syntax
10-06-2009, 07:03 PM #354
Casey wasn't wearing hot pants or a bosom baring top in the video from Blockbusters. I don't think KC changed clothes once she left her parents house right after 4 p.m. on June 16.
Last edited by Jolynna; 10-06-2009 at 07:05 PM.
10-07-2009, 02:24 PM #355
That would only work with a post-Walmart shower though...so that'd mean the Walmart trip would hafta be "4a" earlier timing (possible) & would fit JT's latest version better than "4d" or the shower would have to be ~7:20-7:40PM whilst Tony was on the phone for extended 40mins, and after Casey gave up on Amy ~7:20PM.
10-07-2009, 05:56 PM #356Registered User
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Using either 4b or 4d, would there be enough time and a place for KC to stop somewhere, apply the duct tape and put Caylee in the trunk without someone seeing her?
10-07-2009, 06:38 PM #357The heart of the pure can see, but my eyes have never seen the unicorn . . .
10-08-2009, 10:22 AM #358
As just described on the JT thread...there's nothing that precludes more than one 'trip' away from Tony's either.
(4a) Trip to Walmart for something uberquick before driving back near Tony's place
(4d) After leaving Caylee in the car for an interlude alone w/ Tony a first time <6:30PM (speculation based on inactivity on both of their cell phones and bookend pings @/near Tony's apt. for both of them, and Casey missing 5:57PM call from Cindy when Casey had been desparately trying to reach Cindy before & after this period)...Casey determined 6:30PM via retrieved vmail from the 5:57PM call from Cindy that her Caylee-care options weren't available - Casey tried to reach Cindy again in a flurry and failed...then Casey decided that leaving Caylee alone a second time might work again...perhaps after trying last ditch effort w/ texting Amy ~7:20PM...Caylee placed into the trunk or into Amy's totalled car under a car cover in Tony's apt. parking lot sometime 7:20-7:54PM. Casey intended to check back on Caylee later...took a few tokes while watching movies @ Tony's place..inhaled deeply & lost track/sense of time...and Caylee. Plenty of time in 4d to apply duct tape if one wants to go that route...and/or administer some OTC & wait for effect if one wants to go that route...or...you name it. Wouldn't take long @ all IMHO.
Last edited by BondJamesBond; 10-08-2009 at 10:39 AM.
10-08-2009, 10:26 AM #359Registered User
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12-04-2009, 10:50 AM #360Inactive
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