I have argued that little Caylee died around 3:00 PM on the 16, due to an accident while mom happily chatted and texted on the phone and simultaneously used mom and dad's desktop computer. We can argue about when and how on another thread. I will note, however, to those who think that Caylee was chloroformed and placed in KC's trunk prior to leaving for Tony's, that this report will indicate that she probably would not survive more than an hour...putting death as late as 5:00PM (give or take).
Recall that the Body Farm report assumed Florida temperatures averaged 35C during the time in question when they came up with 2.6 days. I found a weather underground station in Orland kind of / sort of in between the Anthony's and Tony's, which should provide a reasonable approximation of the temperatures KC's car would experience driving back and forth between those locations. On top of that, this station reported temperatures every 2 to 6 minutes.
I also found a forensic report that, amazingly, discussed trunk temperatures in white automobiles. In parallel, Bond found an experiment some guy did in measuring ambient air, interior, trunk, and glove compartment temperatures. The plots posted provided insight into how fast the trunk temperature would rise and fall as the air temperature warmed and cooled.
With Bond's exceptional help (he is the Excel man) I was able to create the following plot. To keep things from getting cluttered, I plotted ambient air temperature in Farenheit and Accumulated Degree Days (ADD) in Celcius. Our spreadsheet based ADD, however, on trunk temperature, not ambient temperature. Trunk temperature was higher. I thought it instructive to show ambient air temperature to give a sense of what the actual weather was like.
From this plot we can see that by assuming a 3:00 PM June 16 death the leaking decompostional fluid stops around 3:30 PM on June 19. Originally I believed this to mean that KC had discarded little Caylee at that time. However, the finding of remains in a garbage bag indicates to me that she was placed in the bag at that time.
Note that 3:30PM June 19 occurs during a period of cell phone inactivity just after pings from the Blanchard Park area are followed by a single ping near Dean and University, indicating a possible northward route (or return to Tony's).
I do not believe KC would have put the body in the bag at Tony's or a busy park like JBP. I imagine the job being messy, not fast, and suspicious (trash bag, duct tape, open trunk...). She did not travel to her parent's house that day either. So where did she do this?
As always...terrific work, JWG.
My money is on this ADD-stopping-initial-bagging of the body taking place @ the Oviedo property 6/19...followed by a second-bagging of the body @ G&C's 6/20 followed immediately by disposal on Suburban Dr.
1) IMHO, Casey first bagged the body using a large trash bag from Tony's apt, hurriedly emptying some small trash bags from the larger bag into her trunk (only one was left in the trunk by 7/15). The body may have initially been in a cloth duffle/sheets or something similar that was not leakproof. This effectively stopped the ADD clock 6/19 ~3:30PM and IMHO took place @ the Oviedo property. The cloth duffle/sheets, etc. likely remained on the body inside the initial bag.
2) IMHO, Casey returned to G&C's 6/20 and performed a more thorough second bagging w/ duct tape, etc., then disposed of the body on Suburban Dr. as she left 1:51-2:18PM. The cloth duffle/sheets, etc. and the initial bag likely remained on the body inside the second bag.
3) Off-topic, but, related. IMHO, Casey disposed of remaining bags of decomp contaminated clothing from the trunk of the Pontiac 6/27AM before leaving it @ Amscot (w/ plans to recover it 6/30).
Great work as usual to both JWG and BondJamesBond. This works. There was a media report about something smelly found in a wooded area off a road that would have been on one of Casey's normal routes. I am having trouble finding it because I can not remember the name of the road. Searches found something in the hollowed out part of a tree root and there were claims of bones and then later reports said bags of smelly stuff no bones and then we never heard anything about it. There was also some confusion if it was someone from TES or a seperate group and something about a forensic person made a statement but then no they didn't. [I know, not very much helpful info]
Does that ring a bell to anyone. I believe ping locations may have been reviewed at the time but my memory is fuzzy. Just wondering if this would fit within the time line and possible locations that she would have been 6/27 and the comment made by Casey "They haven't even found her clother yet"
EDIT. Information provided by BondJamesBond
Find on Sunderson Dr. 11/10.
More information on that find and this speculation located @ http://websleuths.com/forums/showthr...=animal&page=3 Post #66 is a good place to start w/ Post #72 providing a summary.
Last edited by shadow of my mind; 12-18-2008 at 01:22 PM. Reason: info I needed
I have done an analysis on the ADD estimate provided in the report released on analysis of decomposition gases present in KC's trunk. In the report the maximum estimated ADD (Accumulated Degree-days) was estimated at 2.6 days (62.4 hours) based on a constant temperature of 35C (95F). However, the days from June 16th onward were slightly cooler than this and so I wanted to see how this would change the calendar days that Caylee's body could have been in the trunk.
I have assumed that Caylee's body was placed in the trunk some where around 4:00 p.m. on 06/16. This corresponds with the time that KC's cell phone activity went into rapid-fire mode.
I have assumed that Caylee's body remained in the trunk until it was permanently removed. (i.e. not moved out and then back in)
I have assumed the temperature in the trunk to be that of the ambient outside temperature and have not added or substracted any convective/radiant heat additions or losses. I have also assumed no lag between change in temperature within the trunk relative to change in outside temperature.
I have assumed that at no time over the period analyzed the temperature fell below the threshold temperature for decomposition to continue (i.e. it was always warm enough for the body to continuously decompose.)
I used historical data for the days analyzed from Weather Underground.
I averaged the temperature for each hour beginning at 3:53 pm on 06/16/08.
I calculated ADD per hour to refine the analysis since the important question comes down to the hour, versus just half days or full days.
Since it is assumed the threshold temperature was always met and exceeded, the difference in the rate of decomposition between the actual average temperature of a given hour and that hour at 35 C will reduce to the ratio of T(actual)/35.
The new temperature-adjusted decomposition rate was then subtracted from the total maximum ADD listed in the report (62.4 hours) until that total was reached.
It is noted that the report states that the ADD may have very well been less than 2.6 (62.4 hours).
The following graphics split the spreadsheet I created into three sections. The 2.6 days at 95F (35C) is noted in the third section, as well as the equivalent ADD for the actual temperatures. In addition, it is noted that 1:30 p.m. 06/19/08 falls within the envelope of the original ADD at the higher constant temperature and the new ADD using actual temperatures.
BB was unable to remember if the shovel incident occurred on 06/18/08 or 06/19/08, but was fairly certain that it was around 1:30 p.m. Based on this analysis of an adjusted actual time period to arrive at the same level of decomposition as estimated in the official report, it appears that the shovel incident may have occurred at 1:30 p.m. on 06/19/08. Based on this information one could assume that in some relatively short timeframe after the shovel incident, the body was removed from the trunk permanently.
EDIT NOTE: After reading JWG's work in the other thread and discussing in this thread about the pings and rainfall. I believe the above conclusion about BB's account being on the 19th is incorrect. It appears the shovel incident occurred on the 18th. Since both my adjusted ADD data and JWG's adjusted ADD data shows the decomposition evidence being up to the latter half of the 19th, this would mean that whatever KC did on the 18th (during the shovel period) did NOT seal the body off from the trunk.
I look forward to reading your review of this work and any thoughts you may be able to add to this.
Last edited by Valhall; 04-27-2009 at 01:29 PM. Reason: edited to add note on conclusion
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Wow valhal Thanks soooooooo much !
this helps !
Appreciate your hard work & helping to bring ~JUSTICE~ for
Little Angel CAYLEEE !
God Bless !
***Seeking ~JUSTICE~ PRAYING FOR PEACE & JOY FOR THOSE WHO NEED IT * * * ONE DAY @ A TIME ! ! !:Justice:
Great work Valhal!
So with the humidity and the high temps. during the day the stain is making real sense to me in a most horrific way. It also makes the smell thing most believable to any potential juror. You don't need science to "get it".
That was brilliant. I hope the DA is paying attention...
Awesome job! My brain is not of the scientific kind - but I love the way you spelled it all out! I hope the DA reads our threads! Maybe this would be useful in their presentation to help the jury understand this is more than just "junk science".
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Great job, Val!!!
This definately puts things into perspective. Thinking about whatever she did to Caylee...and then stuffing her in the trunk like she was nothing, in those hot temperatures. Ugh.
"Lost is not alone..." T. Miller, Founder TES (and MY HERO!!!)
"I am only one, but I am one. I cannot do everything, but I can do something. And because I cannot do everything, I will not refuse to do the something that I can do. What I can do, I should do. And what I should do, by the grace of God, I will." -
Edward Everett Hale
Analysis based on actual temps was done several months ago and appear in another thread. Perhaps we should merge them? Here is the start of the page where the actual temperatures came into play. The thread is titled In the trunk 2.6 days and was started by Bev.
As for Brian B.'s memory, pings support the shovel incident being 6/18, not 6/19.
Excellent work Val or JWG...
I'm wondering if KC would have initially put Caylee in the trunk with just her blanket on the 16th then on the day she borrowed the shovel from BB, the day she was backed into the garage...I'm wondering if maybe this is when she put Caylee's body in the trash bag then into the laundry basket thingy. What are your thoughts on this?
Again, sorry for duplicating work! I kind of go off on my own on these things because when I work through something by myself, I can get my brain around it a bit better, but I don't want to detract from anything you have already got started.
P.S. I agree with the statement on the pings and the 18th. I actually have a note in my own timeline that states this as well. This particular analysis, however, is based solely on looking at the time in the trunk. So, I guess one could assume that she did SOMETHING on the 18th, but then removed the body the following day. Maybe the 18th is when she "prepared" the body (i.e. heart stickers and duct tape).
No problem. We should merge this into the 2.6 Day thread I referred to above. Discussion certainly is worth revisiting, particularly because the ADD times out later in the afternoon on the 19th (assuming a death after 3PM on the 16th), and KC does not ping near Suburban Drive on the 19th.
Valhall, LOVE your signature! How true!
Isn't there a period of time (I believe from about 6 pm to 9 pm) that there is no cell phone activity (no pings) for KC on the 19th? We really can't say where she is during that period of time, can we?
I think the way the pings and testimony worked out, KC was at Chris S. house around 6PM, and stayed to roughly 8PM on the 19th. KC was clearly at the parent's home the afternoons of the 17th, 18th, and 20th.
Wow, this is amazing. If this is accurate, KC's cell phone should ping her close to the A's on 1/20 around that time which would mean that she was discarding the body at the pet burial site.
"She will be mutha of the year" Rick Anthony's response to Cindy
Here is something else to support the 18th being the shovel day instead of the 19th.
Look at the calendar for the month of June at the bottom of this page
There had only been .18 inches of rain the 4 days preceding the 18th. And that was two days before on the 16th. Beginning on the evening of the 18th through the 21st there was significant rainfall every day. On the evening of the 18th there was over 1/4 inch of rain.
The reason I think this supports BB's account falling on the 18th instead of the 19th is that people don't typically go out and do yard work the day after a significant rainfall because the grass is usually too wet and the ground too soft. So I think most likely he was doing his yard work on the 18th, not the 19th.
"Anyone who has the power to make you believe absurdities has the power to make you commit injustices" - Voltaire
I posted my [ame="http://websleuths.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3855211&postcount=989"]thoughts[/ame] on the Theories On What Happened to Caylee Part 5 thread, speculating why Caylee might have died at ~10PM on the evening of June 15. I am not completely bought into the theory myself, largely because KC does not seem to be in a rush to get out of the home the morning of June 16. She is on the computer IMing and surfing a good portion of the day.
What drove me to the conclusion, however, were two things:
- I do not believe KC bagged Caylee's body on the 19th, a day she did not visit the Anthony home. The bags came from the home, and I believe she grabbed them to solve an immediate problem (or two problems). One was to stop decomposition fluids from further staining the trunk. And a second was to select a sturdy bag - the laundry bag - to carry the body out of the trunk without risking the bag tearing. In both cases I do not believe she grabbed the bags with the intention of doing something with them later and at a different location. She just did not work that way, IMO.
- I believe the analysis that derived the accumulated degree day (ADD) value of 90 assigned to the stain has a relatively low tolerance (think of high accuracy). But I do not know how low. Perhaps other WSer's can comment on how much tolerance they feel is in that test? What I am trying to get at is this. If the test has a tolerance of 33% (30 ADD), that means the chemical composition of the stain at 60 ADD (90 - 30) could look the same as the composition at 120 ADD (90 + 30). Similarly a 1% tolerance covers the range 89.1 to 90.9.
As an exercise , here are some time-of-death values based on ADD tolerance if we are to assume the body was bagged around 3:45PM on the 18th. I pick that time because she appears to have left around 4:00PM, so 3:45 gives her enough time to clean up and return the shovel after bagging (I show date / time followed by ADD tolerance used):6/15/08 2:30 PM 1%In other words, if I assume the ADD analysis has a tolerance of 35%, a 3:45 PM June 18 bagging could be consistent with a 6:45 PM June 16 death.
6/15/08 5:15 PM 5%
6/15/08 9:45 PM 10%
6/16/08 2:15 AM 15%
6/16/08 7:15 AM 20%
6/16/08 11:15 AM 25%
6/16/08 2:45 PM 30%
6/16/08 6:45 PM 35%
Here is a similar analysis showing bagging occurring on June 20 at ~1:45PM, when KC was briefly at the home:6/17/08 2:45 PM 1%Depending on whether or not one believes the time of death is the afternoon or evening of the 16th, the tolerance needs to be 25% or higher to fit the parameters.
6/17/08 12:30 PM 5%
6/17/08 10:15 AM 10%
6/17/08 7:15 AM 15%
6/17/08 3:00 AM 20%
6/16/08 9:15 PM 25%
6/16/08 5:00 PM 30%
6/16/08 1:45 PM 35%
Maybe that is reasonable?
JWG - food for thought, as usual! I am just curious about what effect on the rate of decomposition your 10:00 p.m on the 15th scenario would have, considering that the body would have spent approximately 18 hours indoors in the air conditioning before being put into the trunk. Obviously this is way out of my league to evaluate but I am sure that there are those of you who can!!