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Thread: Results from Genealogy DNA testing are in!

  1. #26
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    Seems unlikely:

    http://www.moultrieobserver.com/loca...247232642.html

    Even if the bones are not his, it seems that Bobby Eugene Powell's prints and DNA would have been in the system.

  2. #27
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    beckaroozie is offline There sure are a lot of nuts in the Ant Family Tree. Must attract a BUNCH of squirrels.
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    He wasn't arrested...just fyi...or do you mean from missing person flyer? I haven't found him on any. I've been looking for a photo, but haven't found that either, which I thought strange.
    KC found her pot of gold in others pockets.

  3. #28
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    Smile Wow, (two of) my obsessions intersect

    Light bulb moment for me. Doh!

    I know nothing at all about this particular case. But the idea of using genealogy databases to identify unidentified people or remains has a lot of potential IMO.

    It is my understanding that genealogy DNA databases are private but in the case of a missing person, the information could be compared and/or tested without compromising security. After all, LE would be comparing unidentified samples with known samples, not broadcasting their findings (unless they found a definitive match or something).

    IMO most felons/perps/fugitives wouldn't willingly enter their DNA in any database.

    I am going to get my husband and father to submit to compare in one of the genealogy databases. In genealogy circles, I am fairly lucky cause they are both direct male descendants for seven generations back (at least). I am saving up for these tests.

  4. #29
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    This about sums up the significance of the YDNA...

    Quote Originally Posted by Cymro View Post
    Oh and WRT to BK's link on interpretation, I am rather more confident than that:

    http://www.familytreedna.com/genetic...7-markers.aspx

    My understanding (and I am happy to be corrected) is that there is a 37-point match with members of the Joseph Powell family group. If that is the case, the likelihood is high that there is a common male ancestor within a much shorter time frame and this family needs to be looked into.

    It may not show up anything of course but the article that BK has provided seems to focus only on 12-point markers, which are much, much less likely to show a link and, without the surname, appear to be meaningless. Even with a surname, a common ancestor within the last 500-600 years probably doesn't bring us much further forward.

    A 37-point match however is a 50% probability of a common male ancestor within 5 generations and 90% within 16 generations. (Admittedly this could get us from Barack Obama to Dick Cheney). Those confidence levels are with the same surname of course, whereas a 12-point match is, as BK states, a very low level indicator of common ancestry.
    IF we had two common surnames between someone in the Joseph Powell group and BK, we would have the probabilities listed above. If we do NOT have two people with the same surname, it is much less significant.

    We do not know what we have for surnames with BK-the Powell side is all set.

    As with most things that have to do with BK, this is a lightning strike in a manner of speaking. What it might mean in the future is far more significant then now.

    Yes, he is having the extended testing. It will be a while before that is completed.

    FWIW, and strictly my opinion-I don't find this compelling the way you all have. It is like having a DNA profile with no suspect to match it to. Again, JMO.
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  5. #30
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    [/quote]FWIW, and strictly my opinion-I don't find this compelling the way you all have. It is like having a DNA profile with no suspect to match it to. Again, JMO.[/quote]

    Well it's compelling in the way that DNA is factual unlike the info that we have that is more subjective like linguistics, memories (maybe). It's the only link that we have to BK that is indisputable. True that without anything to compare it to it's not exactly a smoking gun but it is factual and unbiased raw data.

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    Quote Originally Posted by AdoraBlue View Post
    IMO most felons/perps/fugitives wouldn't willingly enter their DNA in any database.
    PA passed the DNA Act of 2005 in which all incarcerated felons (past or present) must submit their DNA before being released. I believe other states have similar laws. The problem lies in making sure everything is uploaded to CODIS. The more DNA that is entered, the more unsolved crimes that will become solved. I am waiting for the extended DNA to come back on BK before getting too excited about this Powell connection. The more info, the better chance of IDing him.

  7. #32
    AdoraBlue is offline I've been known to be a little too "woo-woo."
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    Quote Originally Posted by sas377 View Post
    PA passed the DNA Act of 2005 in which all incarcerated felons (past or present) must submit their DNA before being released. I believe other states have similar laws. The problem lies in making sure everything is uploaded to CODIS. The more DNA that is entered, the more unsolved crimes that will become solved. I am waiting for the extended DNA to come back on BK before getting too excited about this Powell connection. The more info, the better chance of IDing him.
    I meant genealogy databases, that someone with a criminal background/propensity whose DNA wasn't already in CODIS etc. probably wouldn't submit their DNA to a genealogy database, IMO. Just clarification of my post.

  8. #33
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    FWIW, and strictly my opinion-I don't find this compelling the way you all have. It is like having a DNA profile with no suspect to match it to. Again, JMO.[/quote]

    Well it's compelling in the way that DNA is factual unlike the info that we have that is more subjective like linguistics, memories (maybe). It's the only link that we have to BK that is indisputable. True that without anything to compare it to it's not exactly a smoking gun but it is factual and unbiased raw data.[/quote]

    I agree-like his height, weight and scars are factual.

    I am wondering if the overwhelming response is because people believe that BK belongs to the Powell family definitively. My point has only been that this is not the conclusion of the data-I wish it was the definitive answer.
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  9. #34
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    I agree it's not the definitive answer but it does give us an area where we can look where there is heightened probability - and a searchable string for the databases. We (or rather LE) can revisit closed/cancelled cases where the misper's name is Powell, whose DoB is between 1940 and 1960 and who went missing between 2000 and 2005.

    In the US, roughly 1 person in 1,300 is called Powell - which means that we can skip over (if not definitively rule out) 1,299 out of 1,300 cases in this targeted search. It may not take us any further forward but it immensely increases our scope of search in an area where we are more likely to get a "hit" than elsewhere.

    Edited to add: unless the records are no longer available, I'm sure Bobby Eugene Powell would show up in the GBI/police/federal databases because he was hired to intimidate someone - and who would get a mission like that unless they had a crimnal record already?

  10. #35
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    I too understand it's not definative (and I search everything backwards ) but it gives another avenue to look down. Also, I find many of the posters at the genealogy websites very helpful in research- so it's kind of cool that maybe a different kind of "researcher" will get involved.

    Since the Dr. Phil show didn't seem to garner too many great leads, maybe the genealogy minded folks can help? Just a thought and my opinion.

  11. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cymro View Post
    I agree it's not the definitive answer but it does give us an area where we can look where there is heightened probability - and a searchable string for the databases. We (or rather LE) can revisit closed/cancelled cases where the misper's name is Powell, whose DoB is between 1940 and 1960 and who went missing between 2000 and 2005.

    In the US, roughly 1 person in 1,300 is called Powell - which means that we can skip over (if not definitively rule out) 1,299 out of 1,300 cases in this targeted search. It may not take us any further forward but it immensely increases our scope of search in an area where we are more likely to get a "hit" than elsewhere.

    Edited to add: unless the records are no longer available, I'm sure Bobby Eugene Powell would show up in the GBI/police/federal databases because he was hired to intimidate someone - and who would get a mission like that unless they had a crimnal record already?
    I don't know that I agree with this, actually. If two people with the same surname of Powell match 37 alleles, and there is a 50% chance they will have a common ancestor in 5 generations, and a 90% chance that they will have a common ancestor in 16 generations, what are the stats if two people have a match without the same last surname? Let's say for the sake of argument that Benjaman's surname is Smith?

    I mean there is a 50% of BK having a common ancestor with these folks somewhere in the last 100 years-only if his surname is Powell.

    Does anyone know how relevant the allele match is if the surname of the families are different?
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  12. #37
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    I checked Family Tree DNA website, and the only discussion I could find around differing surnames had to do with the 12 marker test:

    If you compare the 12 marker result to someone else who does not have the
    same surname, but the scores match, you are most likely NOT related. When we
    use the term related, we are talking about within the last 1000 years or 40
    generations.

    According to current theories, we are all related. The degree of relatedness
    depends on the time frame, or generations between the participants and the
    common ancestor.


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  13. #38
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    I don't know that I agree with this, actually. If two people with the same surname of Powell match 37 alleles, and there is a 50% chance they will have a common ancestor in 5 generations, and a 90% chance that they will have a common ancestor in 16 generations, what are the stats if two people have a match without the same last surname? Let's say for the sake of argument that Benjaman's surname is Smith?
    I don't know what the odds are - but a 37-point match without a familial relationship seems pretty unlikely, given that it introduces an additional 25 points of dissimilarity over the 12-point match that is also discussed. It may or may not get us any further forward - and the odds probably still are that it won't - but the probability has to be heightend with regard to Powell than elsewhere.

    Powell is also a search string that a database can recognise and use to narrow down a large set of data.

    I'm not suggesting that we will find BK among missing Powells or even that he has any Powell ancestry at all - but there is one, specific and proportionate search that can be carried out with a higher probability of success than others.

  14. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by believe09 View Post
    FWIW, and strictly my opinion-I don't find this compelling the way you all have. It is like having a DNA profile with no suspect to match it to. Again, JMO.
    Well it's compelling in the way that DNA is factual unlike the info that we have that is more subjective like linguistics, memories (maybe). It's the only link that we have to BK that is indisputable. True that without anything to compare it to it's not exactly a smoking gun but it is factual and unbiased raw data.[/quote]

    I agree-like his height, weight and scars are factual.

    I am wondering if the overwhelming response is because people believe that BK belongs to the Powell family definitively. My point has only been that this is not the conclusion of the data-I wish it was the definitive answer. [/quote]
    --------------------------------------------------------------------

    There are those known facts about BK.
    There are those memories BK has.
    We all have worked on both.

    But, I think the overwhelming response to the y dna is hope.
    Hope that BK will find his identity, that it seems a little closer now.
    Hope gives people incentive to keep on searching for clues.
    Hope that BK's family has one more avenue to find him.
    Hope that BK has hope.
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    This is NOT a match IMO but this came up from a Google search - name, location and timeline are all reasonable enough but photo and age don't fit.

    I'm posting it anyway so that others doing similar searches can move on from this result.

  16. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cymro View Post
    This is NOT a match IMO but this came up from a Google search - name, location and timeline are all reasonable enough but photo and age don't fit.

    I'm posting it anyway so that others doing similar searches can move on from this result.
    -------------------------------------------------------
    I read the newspaper articles. Did they find him? Not the right age? I did not see a photo.

    If we get lots of ruled out, NOT a match people, we might need a new thread for that.
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  17. #42
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    The photo is right to the right and above of the article. It doesn't appear to me to look anything like him.

    Also, he was 38 in 2004.
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  18. #43
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    Sample letter?

    OK, guys-it is hard to resist the Powell bandwagon-I did a letter that we might use for various family projects. Referenced in the letter is a copy of the BK flyer-I have one on my hard drive that I attach when I send stuff out about him. Thoughts?

    I am working on behalf of a gentleman with amnesia who recently had his YDNA processed at Family Tree DNA. The results of his 37 marker test indicate that he may have a common ancestor in the Joseph Powell Family. Some combing of websites associated with Joseph Powell brought up the xyz webpage with photos of the Powell family.

    Mr. Kyle, as our amnesia victim calls himself, has very distinctive features. In particular, he has a distinctive nose. It will likely be months before Mr. Kyle's 60+ marker test will be back-in the interim we are reaching out to families like yours to see if he looks familiar in any way. It is a long shot but one worth pursuing.

    Here is some background on Mr. Kyle: He was discovered behind a Burger King in Richmond Hill, GA in August of 2004. He was unconscious, having been beaten in a violent assault. When he recovered, he was blind from cataracts and unable to recall who he was or why he was in GA. He believes that he was a resident of Denver, CO and that he likely was born in Indiana. He believes he attended Catholic Schools. His finger prints are in National databases, his DNA is in CODIS and he has appeared both on the Dr. Phil show and in the National Enquirer. In spite of the media attention he has received, his identity has still not been uncovered.

    Here is a link to a blog detailing the YDNA testing:
    http://genealogy.about.com/b/2009/02...sia-victim.htm

    Here is a link to Mr. Kyle's DoeNetwork page:
    http://www.doenetwork.org/cases/1007umga.html

    I have included in this email a flyer with links to various pictures of Mr.Kyle.

    I would welcome any feedback you have regarding the possibility that this nice man might be a member of the Powell family. Any thoughts or ideas on how to proceed will also be most welcome.

    Thank you for your time and attention!

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  19. #44
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    Regarding the tags...

    I just added two tags to this thread, but I noticed one of the tags reads Missing Howell-I think the name is actually Ap Howell, correct? As someone pointed out already, it is Welch I think.
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    Believe, I do think, with respect to the Powell family's, that we should bring forth on WS a list of these families and their emails, and approach as a group, not individually, so they will not be bombarded with queries from us. Any thoughts?
    Maybe set up a thread just for this?

  21. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by carolwood View Post
    Believe, I do think, with respect to the Powell family's, that we should bring forth on WS a list of these families and their emails, and approach as a group, not individually, so they will not be bombarded with queries from us. Any thoughts?
    Maybe set up a thread just for this?
    I would feel best if a mod weighed in on this idea...
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  22. #47
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    Are there any photos of Bobby Powell for matching purposes? What were the injuries and why haven't the police followed up on finding him or his body? Very interesting!

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    My thoughts to this, since I do genealogy research. Let's say you approach me and I answer your question. Then a day or so goes by, I have 15 emails from other people asking the same question. I might would read the these next 5, but after that, I honestly would delete the rest, knowing they are all asking the same question. Just a thought. Speaking for myself, I love to chase down people that are now deceased and tell me more of my life. And if someone would email me, asking questions about someone who I don't know, but could possibly be related, I would help along with the query, if at all possible. But if I was asked the same question by some 25 or so people, I might would hesitate in the query, thinking they will find someone else that will help, and probably not go further than what I could go in the query.
    It would be a "Sorry, I don't have any idea who this is."
    Instead of "Sorry, I don't have any idea who this is, but, I can check with other distant family and see what I can come up with."

  24. #49
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    Just catching up a bit. I know Powell is not a Definite match - but here is the only missing Powell I could find listed so far that is anywhere near close to BK and this gentleman has been missing a long time:

    http://www.charleyproject.org/cases/...l_richard.html

    I was excited - so I had to contribute something

    Salem

  25. #50
    Quote Originally Posted by Salem View Post
    Just catching up a bit. I know Powell is not a Definite match - but here is the only missing Powell I could find listed so far that is anywhere near close to BK and this gentleman has been missing a long time:

    http://www.charleyproject.org/cases/...l_richard.html

    I was excited - so I had to contribute something

    Salem
    Hi, 1st post here.. my name is Sue
    I think he is too young to be BK. The link you posted is one year younger then me; making him 43

    I've been watching this at another place, my guess is that his birthday is between 1953 and 1957. I don't think he's younger then that; and 1957 might be too young.

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