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  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by AdoraBlue View Post
    IMO most felons/perps/fugitives wouldn't willingly enter their DNA in any database.
    PA passed the DNA Act of 2005 in which all incarcerated felons (past or present) must submit their DNA before being released. I believe other states have similar laws. The problem lies in making sure everything is uploaded to CODIS. The more DNA that is entered, the more unsolved crimes that will become solved. I am waiting for the extended DNA to come back on BK before getting too excited about this Powell connection. The more info, the better chance of IDing him.

  2. #32
    AdoraBlue is offline I've been known to be a little too "woo-woo."
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    Talking

    Quote Originally Posted by sas377 View Post
    PA passed the DNA Act of 2005 in which all incarcerated felons (past or present) must submit their DNA before being released. I believe other states have similar laws. The problem lies in making sure everything is uploaded to CODIS. The more DNA that is entered, the more unsolved crimes that will become solved. I am waiting for the extended DNA to come back on BK before getting too excited about this Powell connection. The more info, the better chance of IDing him.
    I meant genealogy databases, that someone with a criminal background/propensity whose DNA wasn't already in CODIS etc. probably wouldn't submit their DNA to a genealogy database, IMO. Just clarification of my post.

  3. #33
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    FWIW, and strictly my opinion-I don't find this compelling the way you all have. It is like having a DNA profile with no suspect to match it to. Again, JMO.[/quote]

    Well it's compelling in the way that DNA is factual unlike the info that we have that is more subjective like linguistics, memories (maybe). It's the only link that we have to BK that is indisputable. True that without anything to compare it to it's not exactly a smoking gun but it is factual and unbiased raw data.[/quote]

    I agree-like his height, weight and scars are factual.

    I am wondering if the overwhelming response is because people believe that BK belongs to the Powell family definitively. My point has only been that this is not the conclusion of the data-I wish it was the definitive answer.
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  4. #34
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    I agree it's not the definitive answer but it does give us an area where we can look where there is heightened probability - and a searchable string for the databases. We (or rather LE) can revisit closed/cancelled cases where the misper's name is Powell, whose DoB is between 1940 and 1960 and who went missing between 2000 and 2005.

    In the US, roughly 1 person in 1,300 is called Powell - which means that we can skip over (if not definitively rule out) 1,299 out of 1,300 cases in this targeted search. It may not take us any further forward but it immensely increases our scope of search in an area where we are more likely to get a "hit" than elsewhere.

    Edited to add: unless the records are no longer available, I'm sure Bobby Eugene Powell would show up in the GBI/police/federal databases because he was hired to intimidate someone - and who would get a mission like that unless they had a crimnal record already?

  5. #35
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    I too understand it's not definative (and I search everything backwards ) but it gives another avenue to look down. Also, I find many of the posters at the genealogy websites very helpful in research- so it's kind of cool that maybe a different kind of "researcher" will get involved.

    Since the Dr. Phil show didn't seem to garner too many great leads, maybe the genealogy minded folks can help? Just a thought and my opinion.

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cymro View Post
    I agree it's not the definitive answer but it does give us an area where we can look where there is heightened probability - and a searchable string for the databases. We (or rather LE) can revisit closed/cancelled cases where the misper's name is Powell, whose DoB is between 1940 and 1960 and who went missing between 2000 and 2005.

    In the US, roughly 1 person in 1,300 is called Powell - which means that we can skip over (if not definitively rule out) 1,299 out of 1,300 cases in this targeted search. It may not take us any further forward but it immensely increases our scope of search in an area where we are more likely to get a "hit" than elsewhere.

    Edited to add: unless the records are no longer available, I'm sure Bobby Eugene Powell would show up in the GBI/police/federal databases because he was hired to intimidate someone - and who would get a mission like that unless they had a crimnal record already?
    I don't know that I agree with this, actually. If two people with the same surname of Powell match 37 alleles, and there is a 50% chance they will have a common ancestor in 5 generations, and a 90% chance that they will have a common ancestor in 16 generations, what are the stats if two people have a match without the same last surname? Let's say for the sake of argument that Benjaman's surname is Smith?

    I mean there is a 50% of BK having a common ancestor with these folks somewhere in the last 100 years-only if his surname is Powell.

    Does anyone know how relevant the allele match is if the surname of the families are different?
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  7. #37
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    I checked Family Tree DNA website, and the only discussion I could find around differing surnames had to do with the 12 marker test:

    If you compare the 12 marker result to someone else who does not have the
    same surname, but the scores match, you are most likely NOT related. When we
    use the term related, we are talking about within the last 1000 years or 40
    generations.

    According to current theories, we are all related. The degree of relatedness
    depends on the time frame, or generations between the participants and the
    common ancestor.


    email me


    Long Lost Love: The Bob Harrod Story Disappeared/ID Network
    Amazon: Purchase Long Lost Love $1.99


    Bob Harrod SAR


    “The first time someone shows you who they are, believe them.”
    ― Maya Angelou

  8. #38
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    I don't know that I agree with this, actually. If two people with the same surname of Powell match 37 alleles, and there is a 50% chance they will have a common ancestor in 5 generations, and a 90% chance that they will have a common ancestor in 16 generations, what are the stats if two people have a match without the same last surname? Let's say for the sake of argument that Benjaman's surname is Smith?
    I don't know what the odds are - but a 37-point match without a familial relationship seems pretty unlikely, given that it introduces an additional 25 points of dissimilarity over the 12-point match that is also discussed. It may or may not get us any further forward - and the odds probably still are that it won't - but the probability has to be heightend with regard to Powell than elsewhere.

    Powell is also a search string that a database can recognise and use to narrow down a large set of data.

    I'm not suggesting that we will find BK among missing Powells or even that he has any Powell ancestry at all - but there is one, specific and proportionate search that can be carried out with a higher probability of success than others.

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by believe09 View Post
    FWIW, and strictly my opinion-I don't find this compelling the way you all have. It is like having a DNA profile with no suspect to match it to. Again, JMO.
    Well it's compelling in the way that DNA is factual unlike the info that we have that is more subjective like linguistics, memories (maybe). It's the only link that we have to BK that is indisputable. True that without anything to compare it to it's not exactly a smoking gun but it is factual and unbiased raw data.[/quote]

    I agree-like his height, weight and scars are factual.

    I am wondering if the overwhelming response is because people believe that BK belongs to the Powell family definitively. My point has only been that this is not the conclusion of the data-I wish it was the definitive answer. [/quote]
    --------------------------------------------------------------------

    There are those known facts about BK.
    There are those memories BK has.
    We all have worked on both.

    But, I think the overwhelming response to the y dna is hope.
    Hope that BK will find his identity, that it seems a little closer now.
    Hope gives people incentive to keep on searching for clues.
    Hope that BK's family has one more avenue to find him.
    Hope that BK has hope.
    God has a plan to help bring justice to the world -- and his plan is us.
    Gary Haugen
    Source: Founder, International

  10. #40
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    This is NOT a match IMO but this came up from a Google search - name, location and timeline are all reasonable enough but photo and age don't fit.

    I'm posting it anyway so that others doing similar searches can move on from this result.


  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cymro View Post
    This is NOT a match IMO but this came up from a Google search - name, location and timeline are all reasonable enough but photo and age don't fit.

    I'm posting it anyway so that others doing similar searches can move on from this result.
    -------------------------------------------------------
    I read the newspaper articles. Did they find him? Not the right age? I did not see a photo.

    If we get lots of ruled out, NOT a match people, we might need a new thread for that.
    God has a plan to help bring justice to the world -- and his plan is us.
    Gary Haugen
    Source: Founder, International

  12. #42
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    The photo is right to the right and above of the article. It doesn't appear to me to look anything like him.

    Also, he was 38 in 2004.
    Dawn

    ________________________
    Everything I post is my opinion only.

    "Responses to grief are as varied as the day is long. But responses to guilt are oh, so predictable. What do guilty people do? They lie, they avoid, they run, they mislead... They act like nothing is wrong." - LDB, 7/4/11

  13. #43
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    Sample letter?

    OK, guys-it is hard to resist the Powell bandwagon-I did a letter that we might use for various family projects. Referenced in the letter is a copy of the BK flyer-I have one on my hard drive that I attach when I send stuff out about him. Thoughts?

    I am working on behalf of a gentleman with amnesia who recently had his YDNA processed at Family Tree DNA. The results of his 37 marker test indicate that he may have a common ancestor in the Joseph Powell Family. Some combing of websites associated with Joseph Powell brought up the xyz webpage with photos of the Powell family.

    Mr. Kyle, as our amnesia victim calls himself, has very distinctive features. In particular, he has a distinctive nose. It will likely be months before Mr. Kyle's 60+ marker test will be back-in the interim we are reaching out to families like yours to see if he looks familiar in any way. It is a long shot but one worth pursuing.

    Here is some background on Mr. Kyle: He was discovered behind a Burger King in Richmond Hill, GA in August of 2004. He was unconscious, having been beaten in a violent assault. When he recovered, he was blind from cataracts and unable to recall who he was or why he was in GA. He believes that he was a resident of Denver, CO and that he likely was born in Indiana. He believes he attended Catholic Schools. His finger prints are in National databases, his DNA is in CODIS and he has appeared both on the Dr. Phil show and in the National Enquirer. In spite of the media attention he has received, his identity has still not been uncovered.

    Here is a link to a blog detailing the YDNA testing:
    http://genealogy.about.com/b/2009/02...sia-victim.htm

    Here is a link to Mr. Kyle's DoeNetwork page:
    http://www.doenetwork.org/cases/1007umga.html

    I have included in this email a flyer with links to various pictures of Mr.Kyle.

    I would welcome any feedback you have regarding the possibility that this nice man might be a member of the Powell family. Any thoughts or ideas on how to proceed will also be most welcome.

    Thank you for your time and attention!

    email me


    Long Lost Love: The Bob Harrod Story Disappeared/ID Network
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    Bob Harrod SAR


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    ― Maya Angelou

  14. #44
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    Regarding the tags...

    I just added two tags to this thread, but I noticed one of the tags reads Missing Howell-I think the name is actually Ap Howell, correct? As someone pointed out already, it is Welch I think.
    email me


    Long Lost Love: The Bob Harrod Story Disappeared/ID Network
    Amazon: Purchase Long Lost Love $1.99


    Bob Harrod SAR


    “The first time someone shows you who they are, believe them.”
    ― Maya Angelou

  15. #45
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    Believe, I do think, with respect to the Powell family's, that we should bring forth on WS a list of these families and their emails, and approach as a group, not individually, so they will not be bombarded with queries from us. Any thoughts?
    Maybe set up a thread just for this?

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