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Old 03-27-2010, 09:30 PM
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WA - Shantina Smiley, 29, & Azriel Carver, 8 (fnd deceased), Olympia, Mar 2010 - #5

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Last edited by Salem; 03-27-2010 at 09:31 PM.
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Old 03-27-2010, 09:42 PM
SMK SMK is offline
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Here I am on #5. Seems we have run out of ideas, but I am having an awful time letting go of both Shantina and Azriel, as irrational as it would seem. Well, I wonder where this thread will take us....if anywhere......
By the way, I am a producer on Now Public Media, which is how I became so caught up in this case. These were my 3 stories I posted, and then, I came here, because I wanted to know what happened, in depth...




http://my.nowpublic.com/world/no-clues-case-missing-shantina-smiley-and-8-year-old-son

http://my.nowpublic.com/world/autopsy-confirms-body-azriel-carver-cause-death-drowning

http://my.nowpublic.com/world/autops...d-abuse-probes

Last edited by SMK; 03-27-2010 at 10:16 PM.
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Old 03-27-2010, 09:48 PM
BeanE BeanE is offline
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I went back through all the surveillance videos looking at SS for anything that might be a sign of illness or injury or a brain event, but I really didn't see anything. The videos were kind of jerky in movement, rather they made the people look jerky in movement so it wasn't very clear.
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Old 03-27-2010, 10:04 PM
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Originally Posted by BeanE View Post
I went back through all the surveillance videos looking at SS for anything that might be a sign of illness or injury or a brain event, but I really didn't see anything. The videos were kind of jerky in movement, rather they made the people look jerky in movement so it wasn't very clear.
Yes, I noticed that too: Very choppy and lurching videos. Not easy to tell the actual movement.
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Old 03-27-2010, 11:18 PM
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When I do look at the clearer ones, she honestly does not look impaired to me, not in any obvious way. A stumbling, slurring person would be noticed more, and the police called, I assume, if it had been blatant and really obvious...
although she does hit the curb...
Do not know why I am stuck on her and her son in these tapes, as if watching them will change the outcome....Obsessive, much?

http://video.foxnews.com/v/4114833/n...ylist_id=87249

Last edited by SMK; 03-27-2010 at 11:24 PM.
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Old 03-28-2010, 12:38 AM
Calliope Calliope is offline
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(supposedly) Azriel said his mommy hit her head. I don't know why that was dismissed out of hand. And there are so many other reasons why she could have acted the way she did. Someone mentioned migraines earlier; I hadn't considered that, but that was a good point too.
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Old 03-28-2010, 01:20 AM
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Nancee Drue Nancee Drue is offline
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Rumor is that SS is a smart woman. Could SS possibly have planned a scheme, to get away, from what ever it might be, she wanted freedom from? Or, could it possibly be, that she trusted someone, to help her and her son, from the van, in the water? And, that person kidnapped them?

It's just my feeling that SS is alive. I am not sure where, though.
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Old 03-28-2010, 02:00 AM
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Jani Jani is offline
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Originally Posted by Nancee Drue View Post
Rumor is that SS is a smart woman. Could SS possibly have planned a scheme, to get away, from what ever it might be, she wanted freedom from? Or, could it possibly be, that she trusted someone, to help her and her son, from the van, in the water? And, that person kidnapped them?

It's just my feeling that SS is alive. I am not sure where, though.

Again, IMO, if she wanted to "get away", she would not have made herself so visible, making all those stops asking for directions to a freeway that was practically within walking distance from where she was asking. I have never heard of someone calling such attention to their actions, wandering for hours in one location while they are running away

If someone wants to disappear/get away from it all, it is quite easy...you just quietly go without telling anyone...you just go. Either take your child(ren) with you or leave them with someone.

I do not believe Shantina was a monster and killed her child to start a new life. I do believe that whatever happened that night was not a planned event. Just an extremely sad and tragic event. Also, IMO, she is in the water.
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Old 03-28-2010, 02:09 AM
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Perhaps, she made herself noticeable, so it would seem she was having a possible problem, and people might think she drowned??? Then, she could disappear?

Or, perhaps, she was just kidnapped? Maybe a kidnapper harmed SS's son, and is holding SS captive?

The easiest, end of story conclusion is, that SS drowned. I won't believe unless her body is found.
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Old 03-28-2010, 02:10 AM
jessigirl jessigirl is offline
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Where can I find detailed info about the multiple CPS reports, especially ones filed btwn 04-06? I know in some of the previous threads there has been much referanced to these reports and discussion tho I havent, myself, seen any of the reports of excerpts from them If anyone knows where I could locate such info would post a link or even just point me in the correct direction? TIA!!!
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Old 03-28-2010, 11:54 AM
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Also: Her "brain event" may have been the result of anti-anxiety meds, and then worsened with wine on top of that.
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Old 03-28-2010, 12:05 PM
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I looked up Carlo Rossi wine.

It's available in 1.5L, 3.0L and 4.0L bottles.

We need to pin down the 'average' effects of drinking that amount.

I think different types of wine (red, white) might have different effects. The wine she bought appeared to be white. The whites that Carlo Rossi sells are: Chablis, Chardonnay, and Rhine.

http://www.carlorossi.com/the-wines/TheWines.html

Once we get the expected effects we can compare them against the symptoms she displayed, and against symptoms of concussion, stroke, etc.

ETA: I believe it's actually the 1.5L she bought. So she would have consumed half that, or .75L.

Last edited by BeanE; 03-28-2010 at 12:49 PM.
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Old 03-28-2010, 12:08 PM
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I looked up Carlo Rossi wine.

It's available in 1.5L, 3.0L and 4.0L bottles. I looked up pictures, and the 1.5 is a regular wine bottle. It looks like the 3L is what she bought. So she may have had approximately 1.5L.

We need to pin down the 'average' effects of drinking that amount. That's about the amount of wine in a regular wine bottle.

I think different types of wine (red, white) might have different effects. The wine she bought appeared to be white. The whites that Carlo Rossi sells are: Chablis, Chardonnay, and Rhine.

http://www.carlorossi.com/the-wines/TheWines.html

Once we get the expected effects we can compare them against the symptoms she displayed, and against symptoms of concussion, stroke, etc.
Good thinking, and thanks for that info. And also, certain anti-anxiety meds, such as what RS told press she had been taking, have the side effects greatly increased if taken with red winehttp://healthed.aarphealthcare.com/ArticlePage.aspx?CategName=Depression&TopicName=Me dications&ArticleTitle=antianxiety

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Old 03-28-2010, 12:12 PM
BeanE BeanE is offline
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Brain event symptoms

Diner employee comment:
http://www.theolympian.com/2010/03/1...n-missing.html
- "Mom hit her head"
- appeared drunk
- wondered if she had a concussion

Other symptoms:
- disorientation
- frequent, long stops in vehicle
- unable to follow simple directions for short distances
- fell down outside diner

Possible nausea, vomiting
- left diner without food she'd paid for
- fell down outside diner
- unexplained frequent, long stops while driving
- Williams said she looked as if she'd been crying. Typical symptoms of crying: Red, swollen, watery eyes and red runny nose.
- Typical symptoms after vomiting: red, swollen, watery eyes. Red, runny nose.
- bent over counter

Last edited by BeanE; 03-28-2010 at 12:13 PM.
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Old 03-28-2010, 12:17 PM
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Originally Posted by BeanE View Post
Brain event symptoms

Diner employee comment:
http://www.theolympian.com/2010/03/1...n-missing.html
- "Mom hit her head"
- appeared drunk
- wondered if she had a concussion

Other symptoms:
- disorientation
- frequent, long stops in vehicle
- unable to follow simple directions for short distances
- fell down outside diner

Possible nausea, vomiting
- left diner without food she'd paid for
- fell down outside diner
- unexplained frequent, long stops while driving
- Williams said she looked as if she'd been crying. Typical symptoms of crying: Red, swollen, watery eyes and red runny nose.
- Typical symptoms after vomiting: red, swollen, watery eyes. Red, runny nose.
- bent over counter
Wow, what a thorough and excellent list. And it does add up. I wonder if taking anti-stress meds due to the pending visit, which she may have been nervous about, could have led to her bumping her head. The combination leading to a "brain event". And then wine worsening it: Perhaps a glass of wine or two in an attempt to "come down" from the meds? And then furthering of nausea and disorientation. It is too bad she could not have been detained and checked somehow.
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Old 03-28-2010, 02:32 PM
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Originally Posted by BeanE View Post
ETA: I believe it's actually the 1.5L she bought. So she would have consumed half that, or .75L.
I agree.

I compared the bottle of wine in the picture that was posted here a few days ago, with the bottle of water that was also next to it on the picture.

Bottled waters (on average) come in 1/2 a litter (1 pint and .9 ounces.)

The size of the bottle of wine looked like three times that of the bottle of water, IMO.

That would make it about 1.5L.
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Old 03-28-2010, 02:55 PM
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I agree.

I compared the bottle of wine in the picture that was posted here a few days ago, with the bottle of water that was also next to it on the picture.

Bottled waters (on average) come in 1/2 a litter (1 pint and .9 ounces.)

The size of the bottle of wine looked like three times that of the bottle of water, IMO.

That would make it about 1.5L.
If this is true, then it would have held 10 5 oz. glasses of wine, of which about 5 had been drank. According to this info, anyway:
http://wiki.answers.com/Q/How_many_g...bottle_of_wine

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Old 03-28-2010, 12:21 PM
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1.5 liters is twice the size of a regular bottle of wine and holds 10 5oz servings. There is no average effect for alcohol. An person with a high tolerance, for example an alcoholic that drinks every day, might show very little effect from drinking that much over a period of time. On the other hand someone with a low tolerance would be noticeably tipsy after 1 or 2 glasses.

I feel her bizarre behavior started well before the wine purchase on the video and she may well have already been drinking.
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Old 03-28-2010, 12:37 PM
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Originally Posted by powayparent View Post
1.5 liters is twice the size of a regular bottle of wine and holds 10 5oz servings. There is no average effect for alcohol. An person with a high tolerance, for example an alcoholic that drinks every day, might show very little effect from drinking that much over a period of time. On the other hand someone with a low tolerance would be noticeably tipsy after 1 or 2 glasses.

I feel her bizarre behavior started well before the wine purchase on the video and she may well have already been drinking.
ETA: n/m. Got my amounts mixed up. Sorry.

This page shows both 1.5L jug and 3L jug. I think she bought a 1.5L jug. Can someone else look please? I'm getting myself all confused. Obviously I'm not a wine drinker

http://www.licoresuniverso.com/catal..._id=39&lang=sp

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Old 03-28-2010, 01:53 PM
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Originally Posted by powayparent View Post
1.5 liters is twice the size of a regular bottle of wine and holds 10 5oz servings. There is no average effect for alcohol. An person with a high tolerance, for example an alcoholic that drinks every day, might show very little effect from drinking that much over a period of time. On the other hand someone with a low tolerance would be noticeably tipsy after 1 or 2 glasses.

I feel her bizarre behavior started well before the wine purchase on the video and she may well have already been drinking.
MOO
If she left home at 5 and called RS at 6:45 from Olympia - her trip was on track and that is the right amount of time it would have taken to get there. She said she stopped because Az was hungry. They did not show up at her first recorded stop until 7:50 (Handy Pantry). What happened between her call at 6:45 and her stop at 7:50? I believe this is when she could have had an "accident" and "hit her head". She was lost and asking for directions at this first stop. It would be nice to know where she made that call to RS from. There is a mall near where she may have exited and the Handy Pantry. I wonder if they stopped off there for a bit.

I really think either an accident occurred causing her to hit her head, or she had some kind of brain/neurological event as others have suggested, or a psychotic episode.

I wonder if mental illness runs in her family (such as bi-polar, causing her extreme highs and lows). Her mother committed suicide 4 years prior and she had not seen her step dad since. Did she blame him? This trip could definitely cause her extreme stress which is why she may have needed anti-anxiety meds. It could have also caused her to drink to settle her nerves. She could have been stalling or having second thoughts about continuing on to Castle Rock - she may have lost her nerve.

It could be a combination of all these things. MOO

Last edited by Jules71; 03-28-2010 at 01:54 PM.
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Old 03-28-2010, 09:29 PM
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Originally Posted by Jules71 View Post
MOO
If she left home at 5 and called RS at 6:45 from Olympia - her trip was on track and that is the right amount of time it would have taken to get there. She said she stopped because Az was hungry. They did not show up at her first recorded stop until 7:50 (Handy Pantry). What happened between her call at 6:45 and her stop at 7:50? I believe this is when she could have had an "accident" and "hit her head". She was lost and asking for directions at this first stop. It would be nice to know where she made that call to RS from. There is a mall near where she may have exited and the Handy Pantry. I wonder if they stopped off there for a bit.

I really think either an accident occurred causing her to hit her head, or she had some kind of brain/neurological event as others have suggested, or a psychotic episode.

I wonder if mental illness runs in her family (such as bi-polar, causing her extreme highs and lows). Her mother committed suicide 4 years prior and she had not seen her step dad since. Did she blame him? This trip could definitely cause her extreme stress which is why she may have needed anti-anxiety meds. It could have also caused her to drink to settle her nerves. She could have been stalling or having second thoughts about continuing on to Castle Rock - she may have lost her nerve.

It could be a combination of all these things. MOO
I am of the opinion that she called twice at 6:45 pm, b/c RS states once to LE that he didn't answer the phone, then in an interview with media, he declares that she told him she was in Olympia, she stopped to get Az something to eat, and iirc, she said she was lost.

His cell likely would have captured that phone number or two, and LE is likely aware if it is a payphone, or whatever. Why they didn't release that information is a mystery to me, but certainly says they don't want the public to know. So, why don't they want the public to know?
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Old 03-28-2010, 09:40 PM
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I am of the opinion that she called twice at 6:45 pm, b/c RS states once to LE that he didn't answer the phone, then in an interview with media, he declares that she told him she was in Olympia, she stopped to get Az something to eat, and iirc, she said she was lost.

His cell likely would have captured that phone number or two, and LE is likely aware if it is a payphone, or whatever. Why they didn't release that information is a mystery to me, but certainly says they don't want the public to know. So, why don't they want the public to know?
It seems to me he said she called him twice around 6:45 but this is what he wrote on his web page:

BBM
"I stopped in Toldeo-Vader to make quick repair, when she called me at 6:45 from a phone. She asked me if I could grab her phone, because she had left. I let her know where I was at. She was in the Olympia area, but wasn’t quite sure of where, Azriel was hungry, so she pulled off. She made complaint of being in the traffic. She gave me the destination address and told me she would be there shortly."

Yes, sounds like LE doesn't want the public to know where that call was made from.

Last edited by Jules71; 03-28-2010 at 09:44 PM.
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Old 03-28-2010, 09:44 PM
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I am of the opinion that she called twice at 6:45 pm, b/c RS states once to LE that he didn't answer the phone, then in an interview with media, he declares that she told him she was in Olympia, she stopped to get Az something to eat, and iirc, she said she was lost.

His cell likely would have captured that phone number or two, and LE is likely aware if it is a payphone, or whatever. Why they didn't release that information is a mystery to me, but certainly says they don't want the public to know. So, why don't they want the public to know?
This is a very good question.....
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Old 03-28-2010, 12:33 PM
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ss's repeated attempts at finding directions and announcing she was lost in several different public places could have placed her in a dangerous situation. Im hoping people from these places have been looked into as she would have been an easy target for a creep, whether a bystander or even someone giving her directions could have led her to the water such as an employee getting off of work, or even a connection of the home she stopped at ....just sayin....moo
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Old 03-28-2010, 03:29 PM
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ss's repeated attempts at finding directions and announcing she was lost in several different public places could have placed her in a dangerous situation. Im hoping people from these places have been looked into as she would have been an easy target for a creep, whether a bystander or even someone giving her directions could have led her to the water such as an employee getting off of work, or even a connection of the home she stopped at ....just sayin....moo
Right, this is a remote but REAL possibility, the facts notwithstanding...
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