MN - Jacob Wetterling, 11, St. Joseph, 22 Oct 1989 - #9

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I was thinking a similar scenario and it places S1 in his own car only needing to pick up his "purchase" and whatever else he wanted to take. The clown outfit can come off as he nears the barn. I'm strangely comfortable with this. So far, this is the simplest scenario. But are we sure that is the psychology going on between these two? Could be. Going to think some more ;) ...
~ svh

I think its right.
 
With all due respect, some of this is sounding a little crazy to me. IMO, this was a crime of opportunity with very little time between abduction and LE on the scene. Some of these scenarios currently being talked would be almost impossible to pull off without prior planning and within this small window of time.

I don't believe this crime is complicated. Someone was in the right place at the right time and took advantage of their situation. They also got lucky with the missteps by LE.

Poor Jacob...I have an 11-year old son and my heart aches for him and his family. :(

I also believe it was a crime of opportunity. As someone mentioned a while back, three boys riding bikes would be loudly talking, laughing, etc allowing for anyone who was outside to be able to hear. There would also be the illumination of the flashlight which would be very obvious in the dark night. Knowing the boys were going in the direction of the store it wouldn't be unreasonable to think they would have to return the same way. Lay and wait.
 
Websters definition of brainstorming: a group problem-solving technique that involves the spontaneous contribution of ideas from all members of the group ; also : the mulling over of ideas by one or more individuals in an attempt to devise or find a solution to a problem

This is what I thought we were doing here.
At WS, TOS requires that speculation be based on fact, which means linking information to an accepted and credible source. In almost all cases that means mainstream media reporting (MSM) and/or direct statements from LE. Any exceptions must be approved by the point moderator. (Hearsay and rumors don't cut it.) Once that requirement is met, speculation and brainstorming can take place. Keep in mind, it's very important that we make it clear we are stating opinions. IMO, JMO, and MOO work well for that purpose. The last thing we want to do is cause confusion or spur rumors by misrepresenting speculation as the truth.
 
The cases in Paynesville the one in Cold Spring and Jacobs case are all interlinked. PW things so and she has more knowledge than anyone on this board.
 
At WS, TOS requires that speculation be based on fact, which means linking information to an accepted and credible source. In almost all cases that means mainstream media reporting (MSM) and/or direct statements from LE. Any exceptions must be approved by the point moderator. (Hearsay and rumors don't cut it.) Once that requirement is met, speculation and brainstorming can take place. Keep in mind, it's very important that we make it clear we are stating opinions. IMO, JMO, and MOO work well for that purpose. The last thing we want to do is cause confusion or spur rumors by misrepresenting speculation as the truth.

I was under the impression that we were looking into finding more information about LH whomLE has looked at in the past. Am I wrong? Or am I doing something wrong? I hate getting into trouble! :(
 
The definition of Conjecture is: a theory or supposition based on insufficient evidence. A second degree conjecture would be a conjecture based on a conjecture. We have some third degree conjectures going on here. It is pointless.

The way conjectures are used in solving a mystery is using available evidence to convert a conjecture into an established Fact.

Sigrun,

You said that Tracker had earlier claimed that the tire tracks next to Jacob's footprints could not belong to a Monte Carlo. If this can be supported, it is a bombshell.


The location of Jacob's footprints next to those tracks would suggest that they belonged to the vehicle used in the abduction. It would be particularly telling if they were located in a "pull of " area.

We know that no one contacted DR that night but they did speak to him the next day and a week later searched the farm. We must assume that all vehicles on the farm were checked and casts made for comparison against the tracks by Jacob's footprints. It would seem to standard police practice to rule all of those vehicles out. Was this actually done? We don't know.

It is curious that so little interest was paid to DR after the crime. Not only as a suspect but as a witness. The fact that his 911 call was deleted suggests that it was not considered at all important and neither of the vehicles he reported seeing were being searched for. Strange.

At this point, all vehicles and tires that might have been a match are long gone. Some vehicles might be ruled out, but that is probably as good as it's going to get. Otherwise, the only avenue avail to solve this case is probably comparison of similar crimes and known pedophiles in the area.

The family is very well respected. I am sure it never crossed LE local that DR had anything to do with it. I bet it was non-local LE that started the interest in DR. No attachments. No preconceptions
 
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It seems natural that S1 would be the snatcher due to Axis II aggressive personality and for S2 to be the driver as he knows how to operate the farm equipment.

Since S2 lived alone with his parents, and the living arrangement with a grown man and an abducted 11 year old boy in the home would obviously be untenable, it is no assumption to accept that the option of JEW remaining in that home more than 4 or 5 days was out. With the scrutiny only increasing after the abduction (missed likely by Axis II NPD S2 but not Axis II HPD S1), the only viable window for escape would indeed be immediately after the snatch. Not only that, a viable narrative does not include the accompaniment of S1 by S2 by virtue of the fact that he clearly did not. In addition, such a sequence is consistent with flight, especially by an Axis II Histrionic Personality.

Ergo, it is most likely that S1 departed in his own private vehicle, most likely down S2's own driveway, likely in a small blue sedan or Monte Carlo (this is a direct taunt and joke by S2), carrying JEW and this is important, in the front seat. I will explain in a bit. The vehicle likely reached the roadway within 4 minutes of the first contact with the victim.

His likely first leg was non-stop to near fuel exhaustion, where he would refuel and continue to the State of IL. Under any such public contact, he would not have allowed JEW to be seen.

~ svh
 
The cases in Paynesville the one in Cold Spring and Jacobs case are all interlinked. PW things so and she has more knowledge than anyone on this board.

Does she? Is that why she sent a letter to DR?
 
With all due respect, some of this is sounding a little crazy to me. IMO, this was a crime of opportunity with very little time between abduction and LE on the scene. Some of these scenarios currently being talked would be almost impossible to pull off without prior planning and within this small window of time.

I don't believe this crime is complicated. Someone was in the right place at the right time and took advantage of their situation. They also got lucky with the missteps by LE.

Poor Jacob...I have an 11-year old son and my heart aches for him and his family. :(

I'm not sure why you think this is complicated? It seems more or less like the steps anyone would have to take to snatch a kid off the street without being seen and successfully flee, no?

~ svh
 
Since S2 lived alone with his parents, and the living arrangement with a grown man and an abducted 11 year old boy in the home would obviously be untenable, it is no assumption to accept that the option of JEW remaining in that home more than 4 or 5 days was out. With the scrutiny only increasing after the abduction (missed likely by Axis II NPD S2 but not Axis II HPD S1), the only viable window for escape would indeed be immediately after the snatch. Not only that, a viable narrative does not include the accompaniment of S1 by S2 by virtue of the fact that he clearly did not. In addition, such a sequence is consistent with flight, especially by an Axis II Histrionic Personality.

Ergo, it is most likely that S1 departed in his own private vehicle, most likely down S2's own driveway, likely in a small blue sedan or Monte Carlo (this is a direct taunt and joke by S2), carrying JEW and this is important, in the front seat. I will explain in a bit. The vehicle likely reached the roadway within 4 minutes of the first contact with the victim.


His likely first leg was non-stop to near fuel exhaustion, where he would refuel and continue to the State of IL. Under any such public contact, he would not have allowed JEW to be seen.

~ svh

Direct taunt and joke by S2...like his revelation during hypnosis about a small, blue sedan with a female or small child in the front seat.
 
“Some of these were taken from a group of boys. That is really rare,” Patty Wetterling said. “The threat of a gun, the age of the victims, they were close to Jacob’s age. I do think there is a strong possibility they are connected to Jacob’s case.”

I would say this statement trumps any thoughts or ideas you may have. Patty has forgotten more about these cases than you or I will ever know.

Does she? Is that why she sent a letter to DR?
 
I also believe it was a crime of opportunity. As someone mentioned a while back, three boys riding bikes would be loudly talking, laughing, etc allowing for anyone who was outside to be able to hear. There would also be the illumination of the flashlight which would be very obvious in the dark night. Knowing the boys were going in the direction of the store it wouldn't be unreasonable to think they would have to return the same way. Lay and wait.

Of course it was a crime of opportunity. Everything we've discussed up to this point is just that. Two wackos lurking around his house that night see 3 boys coming up the street. They're not brain-dead. They know they're coming back. A mutual fantasy between them is finally realized. Quite simple really.

~ svh
 
“Some of these were taken from a group of boys. That is really rare,” Patty Wetterling said. “The threat of a gun, the age of the victims, they were close to Jacob’s age. I do think there is a strong possibility they are connected to Jacob’s case.”

I would say this statement trumps any thoughts or ideas you may have. Patty has forgotten more about these cases than you or I will ever know.

Or just a copycat style crime to throw off LE?
 
I'm not sure why you think this is complicated? It seems more or less like the steps anyone would have to take to snatch a kid off the street without being seen and successfully flee, no?

~ svh

Part of what makes it complicated is the 2-suspect scenario. I can't imagine DR and a friend standing outside and, after they saw/heard the boys, deciding together to kidnap one, get him out of town quickly, and then what?

I can understand two perps trolling the streets and grabbing a child because that was their plan all along.
 
The cases in Paynesville the one in Cold Spring and Jacobs case are all interlinked. PW things so and she has more knowledge than anyone on this board.


It's not fact that Paynesville, cold spring, and Wetterling cases are interlinked. The Hubers have been mostly tied to the Paynesville and Cold Spring cases. It is very unlikely they are actually involved in any of them. We've looked at them too long, they would have slipped by now or been identified by Jared.
 
Sigrun, I'm catching up a but a question about your process: At this point, does K+K exist or not? If they do/not will that be something you must also analyze for best fit here?
 
Part of what makes it complicated is the 2-suspect scenario. I can't imagine DR and a friend standing outside and, after they saw/heard the boys, deciding together to kidnap one, get him out of town quickly, and then what?

I can understand two perps trolling the streets and grabbing a child because that was their plan all along.

Yes, that I can relate to. The simplest explanation is usually the correct one. The problem however, is that it must be no simpler than what is necessary to explain the evidence. I didn't want two perps, but the evidence, imho, required me to add that complexity to explain the evidence. I spent a few pages developing that, but its the discussion on the tire tracks and it is impossible to get that with one person, imo.

So, point well taken.

~ svh
 
Of course it was a crime of opportunity. Everything we've discussed up to this point is just that. Two wackos lurking around his house that night see 3 boys coming up the street. They're not brain-dead. They know they're coming back. A mutual fantasy between them is finally realized. Quite simple really.

~ svh

You have not convinced me that there were 2 perps on the scene.
 
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