Hurricane Jose September 2017

Henry2326 · Sep 16, 2017

Jose update from NHC...

Hurricane Jose heading basically north and will get close to the NE. Going to be a close skirt. Being a wide system will impact land even if off the coast. NC north needs to watch.*

http://spaghettimodels.com

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Henry2326 · Sep 16, 2017

EURO and GFS models are consistent to skirting the coast. There is some concern and hinted in the Euro that the high will move West and block Jose from moving out to sea. The significant implication could be both Jose and Maria dancing around in the Northern Atlantic. Again...to far out, only speculation.

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CARIIS · Sep 16, 2017

ugh Maria is next ........and cruising along the ocean

http://www.cnn.com/

Henry2326 · Sep 16, 2017

CARIIS said:
tid bits

Fastest forward moving one 1938 70 mph --Henry (you prob have !) check this one out an amazing story. New England one.

Cariis- Wow! Thanks for pointing this out.

Could you imagine if this occurred now? It was a bad one then!! Lets pray we never see this again.

Hundreds of lives were lost with many injured.
Water rose 7' within 30 minutes in New York Harbor.
Bridges, utilities, and railroads were wiped out.
Catastrophic damage to fishing fleets.
An estimated storm tide of 15ft. across eastern Long Island. 8' MLLW was record at Port Jefferson.The storm surge in Western Long Island Sound was 5 1/2 hrs AFTER landfall.
20,000 miles of power and telephone lines downed (Mandia 2013).
Ten new inlets formed from the storm from Fire Island to East Hampton. The most notable was Shinecock Inlet.

Peak Wave Height:*50 ft. at Gloucester, MA
Deaths:*700
Homeless:*Approx. 63,000
Homes/Buildings Destroyed:*Approx. 8,900
Trees Destroyed:*Approx. 2 Billion
Boats Lost or Destroyed:*Approx. 3,300

https://www.weather.gov/okx/1938HurricaneHome

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Henry2326 · Sep 16, 2017

11pm NHC forecast track.... Jose to skirt the US with coastal impacts likely. He is expected to weaken due to upcoming shear. Still a wide system impacting those west of center.

http://spaghettimodels.com

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Henry2326 · Sep 17, 2017

"Jose being tricky. Hurricane Hunters might have found Cat 2 winds and lower pressure. Slight wobble west puts east coast more in play with effects (large expanding system with bands extending way past center). Where Jose goes looks to be the main player where Maria goes.*"

www.spaghettimodels.com*/ Mikes Weather Page APP

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JerseyGirl · Sep 17, 2017

I've been very worried about Jose. Last I saw we should be getting about 20-25 mph winds with gusts up to 35 mph. Last night I saw someone posting surf at Point Pleasant Beach coming up to the palms over by Jenkinsons.

My house is still on jenga blocks 10 feet up in the air. No, I won't get flooding but now i'm concerned about the winds.

thanks for keeping this updated Henry!

Henry2326 · Sep 17, 2017

The forecast continue to say Jose will skirt the coast and minimal flooding. The bands of forecast runs are very tight which is an indication of consistency in the forecast. It loosens up again in predicting the path afterward because of the possible interaction with Maria.

http://spaghettimodels.com

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Henry2326 · Sep 17, 2017

Attached is NHC advisory today for Jose. IMO, the key thought is in the last paragraph. To summarize, if Jose moves to left (west) from the current model track, flooding of rivers can occur.

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Henry2326 · Sep 17, 2017

All 3 models have a cat1 storm skirting the coast. Very good news when they are consistent 2 days out.

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Spellbound · Sep 17, 2017

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/ct-maria-hurricane-caribbean-20170917-story.html

Meanwhile, long-lived Hurricane Jose was moving northward off the U.S. Atlantic Seaboard, kicking up dangerous surf and rip currents. It wasn't expected to make landfall but tropical storm watches were posted for all of the coast from Delaware to Massachusetts' Cape Cod.

Jose was centered about 335 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, N.C., and was moving north at 9 mph. It had maximum sustained winds of 90 mph.

In the Pacific, Tropical Storm Norma's threat to Mexico's Los Cabos area appeared to be easing. Forecasters said the storm's center was likely to remain offshore.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Lee weakened into a tropical depression far out in the Atlantic while Otis strengthened into a hurricane out in the Pacific. Neither threatened land.

JerseyGirl · Sep 18, 2017

This one is coming too close, now gusts should reach about 50 mph in the area I live.

Surf reports are saying waves are high already.

Spellbound · Sep 18, 2017

I am sorry to hear you may be affected by Jose, JerseyGirl. Hopefully, it won't cause a lot of destruction that can't be handled quickly. Be prepared for the worst and pray for the best. And keep updating us, please. Hopefully it will weaken and all will turn out better than we think.

JerseyGirl · Sep 18, 2017

Spellbound said:
I am sorry to hear you may be affected by Jose, JerseyGirl. Hopefully, it won't cause a lot of destruction that can't be handled quickly. Be prepared for the worst and pray for the best. And keep updating us, please. Hopefully it will weaken and all will turn out better than we think.

Thanks. Our house is on the coast, sitting on cribbing about 10 or 12 feet in the air. I'm not worried too much about flooding (other than perhaps soil erosion under the cribbing) but I am very concerned about the winds. I don't like seeing the potential for gusts of up to 50 mph with the house situated in the air like that.

Henry2326 · Sep 18, 2017

Jose's track will keep it off land and a slight jog east will improve the situation even more. The left side of the eye wall is now exposed and will help him lose strength in the coming hours. It is possible he becomes downgraded to a tropical storm sooner than expected if the eye wall remains open.

http://spaghettimodels.com

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Spellbound · Sep 18, 2017

JerseyGirl said:
Thanks. Our house is on the coast, sitting on cribbing about 10 or 12 feet in the air. I'm not worried too much about flooding (other than perhaps soil erosion under the cribbing) but I am very concerned about the winds. I don't like seeing the potential for gusts of up to 50 mph with the house situated in the air like that.

Aren't you in the process of raising your house? I can understand your concern. even "just strong winds" would worry me in that situation. hopefully, Henry's last update will be true ... weakening and turning would be good.

JerseyGirl · Sep 18, 2017

Spellbound said:
Aren't you in the process of raising your house? I can understand your concern. even "just strong winds" would worry me in that situation. hopefully, Henry's last update will be true ... weakening and turning would be good.

Yes we are, the house was raised last week and sitting on cribbing. Now they need to install about 20 or more helical piles, then lay concrete and begin building the base with concrete block.

This is not my house but cribbing looks like this. I'm worried about flooding eroding under the house as well as if the house can sustain 50 mph gusts.

We live on a canal (lagoon) a few houses in from Barnegat Bay.

Henry2326 · Sep 18, 2017

JerseyGirl said:
Yes we are, the house was raised last week and sitting on cribbing. Now they need to install about 20 or more helical piles, then lay concrete and begin building the base with concrete block.

This is not my house but cribbing looks like this. I'm worried about flooding eroding under the house as well as if the house can sustain 50 mph gusts.

We live on a canal (lagoon) a few houses in from Barnegat Bay.

Wow!!! Impressive. We are praying it takes a jog East. Most importantly, you are safe!!

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angelainwi · Sep 18, 2017

Hopefully so...I remember that they said the same thing about Superstorm Sandy in 2012 when it made a hard left and devastated NYC & NJ...Stay vigilant, folks...

Henry2326 said:
Jose's track will keep it off land and a slight jog east will improve the situation even more. The left side of the eye wall is now exposed and will help him lose strength in the coming hours. It is possible he becomes downgraded to a tropical storm sooner than expected if the eye wall remains open.

http://spaghettimodels.com

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JazzTune · Sep 18, 2017

JerseyGirl said:
Thanks. Our house is on the coast, sitting on cribbing about 10 or 12 feet in the air. I'm not worried too much about flooding (other than perhaps soil erosion under the cribbing) but I am very concerned about the winds. I don't like seeing the potential for gusts of up to 50 mph with the house situated in the air like that.

You deserve a break! Hurricane Sandy was enough. You don't need this worry and anxiety too.

I'm adding my thoughts and prayers to everyone else's here that your area will be completely spared...

Hurricane Jose September 2017

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