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  #1  
Old 02-25-2008, 03:57 PM
crypto6 crypto6 is offline
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Brianna Denison 19yo Reno NV #7

OK, I'm game.


Rolex: Belated thanks for the lock bumping article.

Others: What are the risks and possible benefits of keeping a lid on the news of the emergence of a serial rapist/killer??

Do we have any hard data on warning vs. not warning as far as number of victims, time to capture, etc??

Crypto6
  #2  
Old 02-25-2008, 04:15 PM
10EC_Dad 10EC_Dad is offline
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Originally Posted by crypto6 View Post
OK, I'm game.


Rolex: Belated thanks for the lock bumping article.

Others: What are the risks and possible benefits of keeping a lid on the news of the emergence of a serial rapist/killer??

Do we have any hard data on warning vs. not warning as far as number of victims, time to capture, etc??

Crypto6
Before that can be discussed in relation to this case, a strong correlation of facts and circumstances will need to be established between the cited data and this case. Otherwise, it will be out of context in this thread.

With the lack of news on this topic, it is easy to create news.

For anyone local, is this still getting daily coverage from the local media?
  #3  
Old 02-25-2008, 04:17 PM
lew657 lew657 is offline
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things to consider

I don't have any hard data but I think there are some things to be considered.

1. Copy cat crimes - happens in MANY cases where there is a lot of publicity

2. False reports - also happens a lot, it seems crazy to most of us but there are some people that just crave the attention that much.

3. What is the positive impact of a notice- how many of us honestly change our behavior because of a news report. Or let me change that slightly - how many of us would have altered our behavior at 19 -20 something? Would you have not gone to that party?

just my opinion- but I think sometimes the warnings are held back until the true extent of the crimes are determined.
  #4  
Old 02-25-2008, 04:50 PM
dontpanic38 dontpanic38 is offline
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I think that the argument/debate about this getting silly. To even suggest that anyone kept the lid on a potential serial criminal is not only silly, it is just wrong.
The fact is that sexual assaults happen all the time, especially in an area with a large student population. There was nothing before Brianna that suggested anything more than a few details that could be applied to a number of cases that we know are not related.

To look back and say, well they happened at such and such time of night, or week of the month, and all of the victims were small and had dark hair is purely hindsight, and pointless. If those were factors then if the perp attacks a tall blonde in daylight on the first of the month, does that get ignored because it does not fit the "profile" that has been put out there?

Reno Police knew that there are unsolved sexual assaults, but there is no super computer that can scan every known instance of DNA and compare it to something else. (I know that there are DNA databases) It still takes someone to put 2+2 together and then find something with a DNA sample to compare it to.
One other thing to remember is that not all of the assaults are reported right away. I think only one assault (Prior to Brianna) was completely successful as far as the perp leaving DNA by way of semen (Again, that is only speculation on my part) but what we know as facts is that there are three assaults and one murder that this person is responsible for so far. If LE has the power to tie things together before something escalates to this point, we would have no crime. People would be arrested before they were able to commit their second or third crime.

I just think that the argument proves that it is a difficult job to be in Law Enforcement. You do what you do day in and day out with no thanks and then the second that something happens that does not get an immediate resolution, everyone accuses them of dropping the ball.

I want to point out that I have not heard one word criticizing the work that the investigators have done and are doing from Brianna's family, and I think that should speak volumes.

I have always loved coming to Websleuths and think that the discussions that happen here are way better than a lot of the other boards because it is a community of intelligent people who can look at a lot of different viewpoints without flame wars and name calling. I am not saying that is what is happening here, but I would hate to see it come to that. I think that we all feel strongly that a terrible thing has happened and we all want justice for Brianna, so I think that we just need to stick to the known facts and stop blaming anyone.

There is only one person to blame, and hopefully we will have a name and a face to vent our frustration on.
  #5  
Old 02-25-2008, 06:44 PM
close_enough close_enough is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 10EC_Dad View Post
Before that can be discussed in relation to this case, a strong correlation of facts and circumstances will need to be established between the cited data and this case. Otherwise, it will be out of context in this thread.

With the lack of news on this topic, it is easy to create news.

For anyone local, is this still getting daily coverage from the local media?
good question......
  #6  
Old 02-25-2008, 06:56 PM
close_enough close_enough is offline
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"uneasy feeling at memorial"

good read, imo....

http://news.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/ar...40348/0/NEWS18

(sorry if the link is a repeat)
  #7  
Old 02-25-2008, 07:02 PM
crypto6 crypto6 is offline
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Originally Posted by dontpanic38 View Post
I think that the argument/debate about this getting silly. To even suggest that anyone kept the lid on a potential serial criminal is not only silly, it is just wrong.
The fact is that sexual assaults happen all the time, especially in an area with a large student population. There was nothing before Brianna that suggested anything more than a few details that could be applied to a number of cases that we know are not related.
To look back and say, well they happened at such and such time of night, or week of the month, and all of the victims were small and had dark hair is purely hindsight, and pointless. If those were factors then if the perp attacks a tall blonde in daylight on the first of the month, does that get ignored because it does not fit the "profile" that has been put out there?

Reno Police knew that there are unsolved sexual assaults, but there is no super computer that can scan every known instance of DNA and compare it to something else. (I know that there are DNA databases) It still takes someone to put 2+2 together and then find something with a DNA sample to compare it to.
One other thing to remember is that not all of the assaults are reported right away. I think only one assault (Prior to Brianna) was completely successful as far as the perp leaving DNA by way of semen (Again, that is only speculation on my part) but what we know as facts is that there are three assaults and one murder that this person is responsible for so far. If LE has the power to tie things together before something escalates to this point, we would have no crime. People would be arrested before they were able to commit their second or third crime.

I just think that the argument proves that it is a difficult job to be in Law Enforcement. You do what you do day in and day out with no thanks and then the second that something happens that does not get an immediate resolution, everyone accuses them of dropping the ball.

I want to point out that I have not heard one word criticizing the work that the investigators have done and are doing from Brianna's family, and I think that should speak volumes.

I have always loved coming to Websleuths and think that the discussions that happen here are way better than a lot of the other boards because it is a community of intelligent people who can look at a lot of different viewpoints without flame wars and name calling. I am not saying that is what is happening here, but I would hate to see it come to that. I think that we all feel strongly that a terrible thing has happened and we all want justice for Brianna, so I think that we just need to stick to the known facts and stop blaming anyone.

There is only one person to blame, and hopefully we will have a name and a face to vent our frustration on.
That's the context I want to get at; in addition to questions of warning vs. not warning we have the complexity of the evolving patterns: When is a rape (or any other horrible crime) seen as part of a series of crimes by the same individual. I agree it's not fair in the early going to retrospectively place blame on anyone except the rapist. It's helpful to us inquiring minds to know what factors play into seeing a series of crimes as perpetrated by one individual or group. LE can't say there's a serial rapist about if they shouldn't, don't or can't connect the dots; however, most of their interpretation is retrospective like we are doing here, except with much more information to decipher. I'm trying to get at the rules they use, however fuzzy, to decide to look for one person.

This is not a question leading to assigning blame; on the contrary I'm trying to better understand LE's thought processes so I can learn from them.

Crypto6
  #8  
Old 02-25-2008, 07:02 PM
concernedperson concernedperson is offline
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Originally Posted by close_enough View Post
"uneasy feeling at memorial"

good read, imo....

http://news.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/ar...40348/0/NEWS18

(sorry if the link is a repeat)
I operate at an emotional level too. She had some good insights. The perp is taunting at every opportunity IMO. The facts are his DNA when it is discoverable. Someone knows more about this person...I feel sure of that.
  #9  
Old 02-25-2008, 07:04 PM
close_enough close_enough is offline
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I operate at an emotional level too. She had some good insights. The perp is taunting at every opportunity IMO. The facts are his DNA when it is discoverable. Someone knows more about this person...I feel sure of that.
yes!...can you imagine eyeing every man you see, to check for a description that matches?.....
  #10  
Old 02-25-2008, 07:08 PM
crypto6 crypto6 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 10EC_Dad View Post
Before that can be discussed in relation to this case, a strong correlation of facts and circumstances will need to be established between the cited data and this case. Otherwise, it will be out of context in this thread.

With the lack of news on this topic, it is easy to create news.

For anyone local, is this still getting daily coverage from the local media?
We're at the point where we've connected two crimes so we've got that step of the correlation. How can we mine the other data to help us, or how can we use that link to help find the guy?? I appreciate your point and your question is even more pressing in cases where we can't quite make a match between cases and some want to and others don't.

Crypto6
  #11  
Old 02-25-2008, 07:13 PM
crypto6 crypto6 is offline
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Originally Posted by close_enough View Post
"uneasy feeling at memorial"

good read, imo....

http://news.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/ar...40348/0/NEWS18

(sorry if the link is a repeat)
Good find. The taunting is a key peice, for not only is he taunting, but possibly forecasting a future victim. Not only does he steal a precious life, but he steals trust between men and women.

Crypto6
  #12  
Old 02-25-2008, 07:15 PM
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Originally Posted by close_enough View Post
yes!...can you imagine eyeing every man you see, to check for a description that matches?.....
Can you imagine the feeling of being examined by everyone you see because they think you could be a rapist/murderer?
  #13  
Old 02-25-2008, 07:33 PM
crypto6 crypto6 is offline
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Originally Posted by lew657 View Post
I don't have any hard data but I think there are some things to be considered.

1. Copy cat crimes - happens in MANY cases where there is a lot of publicity

2. False reports - also happens a lot, it seems crazy to most of us but there are some people that just crave the attention that much.

3. What is the positive impact of a notice- how many of us honestly change our behavior because of a news report. Or let me change that slightly - how many of us would have altered our behavior at 19 -20 something? Would you have not gone to that party?



just my opinion- but I think sometimes the warnings are held back until the true extent of the crimes are determined.
And how much insight does a warning give a rapist into the progress of LE on the case?

Crypto6
  #14  
Old 02-25-2008, 08:20 PM
dontpanic38 dontpanic38 is offline
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Originally Posted by crypto6 View Post
That's the context I want to get at; in addition to questions of warning vs. not warning we have the complexity of the evolving patterns: When is a rape (or any other horrible crime) seen as part of a series of crimes by the same individual. I agree it's not fair in the early going to retrospectively place blame on anyone except the rapist. It's helpful to us inquiring minds to know what factors play into seeing a series of crimes as perpetrated by one individual or group. LE can't say there's a serial rapist about if they shouldn't, don't or can't connect the dots; however, most of their interpretation is retrospective like we are doing here, except with much more information to decipher. I'm trying to get at the rules they use, however fuzzy, to decide to look for one person.

This is not a question leading to assigning blame; on the contrary I'm trying to better understand LE's thought processes so I can learn from them.

Crypto6

I think that the key to connecting crimes simply boils down to good investigators. While there are amazing tools that they have such as DNA databases, the biggest Databases and the fastest most powerful computers will never be able to do the job that a sharp eye for detail and experience will do. That is why I give a lot of credit to Reno LE for in a sense admitting that they are over their heads and calling for the FBI and any extra help and for the public to donate to expedite the process of looking through the backlog of DNA etc...

I think that there is a mindset that wants to see a pattern and rationalize a sick mind running loose by saying, "well, it is a twisted person who has something against petite brunettes and can only strike on Thursdays in the middle of the month"
It makes it less scary to rationalize it that way rather than to admit that there is a guy who can be anyone in the community who strikes against anyone who is vulnerable and has gone as far as going into the sanctity of a home to take what he wants. That is Terrifying, however that is the reality.
I said it before but I think it is going to be an Edwin Hall. There is absolutely nothing remarkable about him and nothing that anyone could have looked at and decided that he was someone who could commit the type of crime he is responsible for. I think it is terrifying because his victim was out doing what all of us do and in the blink of an eye, he took her from this world. It is a horrible sobering thought to realize that there really is no rationalization for it, and while it would be human nature to think that someone like that should have been noticed or caught committing other crimes before it got to that point, the reality is that until we get to the point of reading other peoples' minds and putting them away for future crimes or "thought crimes" there is no way anyone knows who, when, or why.

I am the father of a beautiful little girl, and I could not even imagine the terror of sending your daughter into the world with all of the normal issues that young women face, let alone something like this!
There is a book that I read that one of the big FBI profilers (Douglas I think) talked about a lot titled "Protecting the gift" and that author also wrote another book on the same lines about trusting your instinct. If someone gives you bad vibes, you are probably justified. Essentially he was saying that almost every survivor of some horrific crime had a "feeling" about the person who committed it. My point is that someone like John Douglas has seen some of the most horrific things a human can do and still he has to let his children go out in the world and do what they need to do. It is his hope that he taught them to be smart and make the right choices.

Sooooo My point is that there is no way to predict who is going to commit a crime, linking crimes is something that good investigators do, but it takes a lot of factors for them to link crimes 100%. It has become easier with DNA, but a good example of how DNA is just starting to make the job easier is here in my state of Missouri. In the past month or two they linked one man to several cases that took place in the 60's and 70's in St Genevieve Mo and Southern Illinois, and for one no one really even knew there was a serial killer that struck back then, people had their suspicions that some of the cases could be linked but there was nothing solid until DNA. There was no definite signature in the killings, and the MO was different each time.


I think that in this case, while it may seem painfully slow, this perp is not experienced enough to keep suspicion away or to avoid scrutiny from a lot of other sources. I said it last week, but I think that there is going to be a break in the case very soon. I think that LE has people that they are looking at, and there is always the fact that they are waiting for him to do something suspicious so they can move in and have probable cause and not have to tip their hand and have the perp lawyer up and make it harder to nail him.
  #15  
Old 02-25-2008, 08:45 PM
10EC_Dad 10EC_Dad is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by crypto6 View Post
That's the context I want to get at; in addition to questions of warning vs. not warning we have the complexity of the evolving patterns: When is a rape (or any other horrible crime) seen as part of a series of crimes by the same individual. I agree it's not fair in the early going to retrospectively place blame on anyone except the rapist. It's helpful to us inquiring minds to know what factors play into seeing a series of crimes as perpetrated by one individual or group. LE can't say there's a serial rapist about if they shouldn't, don't or can't connect the dots; however, most of their interpretation is retrospective like we are doing here, except with much more information to decipher. I'm trying to get at the rules they use, however fuzzy, to decide to look for one person.

This is not a question leading to assigning blame; on the contrary I'm trying to better understand LE's thought processes so I can learn from them.

Crypto6
I am in no way qualified to express LE's processes
  #16  
Old 02-25-2008, 08:53 PM
concernedperson concernedperson is offline
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Originally Posted by dontpanic38 View Post
I think that the key to connecting crimes simply boils down to good investigators. While there are amazing tools that they have such as DNA databases, the biggest Databases and the fastest most powerful computers will never be able to do the job that a sharp eye for detail and experience will do. That is why I give a lot of credit to Reno LE for in a sense admitting that they are over their heads and calling for the FBI and any extra help and for the public to donate to expedite the process of looking through the backlog of DNA etc...

I think that there is a mindset that wants to see a pattern and rationalize a sick mind running loose by saying, "well, it is a twisted person who has something against petite brunettes and can only strike on Thursdays in the middle of the month"
It makes it less scary to rationalize it that way rather than to admit that there is a guy who can be anyone in the community who strikes against anyone who is vulnerable and has gone as far as going into the sanctity of a home to take what he wants. That is Terrifying, however that is the reality.
I said it before but I think it is going to be an Edwin Hall. There is absolutely nothing remarkable about him and nothing that anyone could have looked at and decided that he was someone who could commit the type of crime he is responsible for. I think it is terrifying because his victim was out doing what all of us do and in the blink of an eye, he took her from this world. It is a horrible sobering thought to realize that there really is no rationalization for it, and while it would be human nature to think that someone like that should have been noticed or caught committing other crimes before it got to that point, the reality is that until we get to the point of reading other peoples' minds and putting them away for future crimes or "thought crimes" there is no way anyone knows who, when, or why.

I am the father of a beautiful little girl, and I could not even imagine the terror of sending your daughter into the world with all of the normal issues that young women face, let alone something like this!
There is a book that I read that one of the big FBI profilers (Douglas I think) talked about a lot titled "Protecting the gift" and that author also wrote another book on the same lines about trusting your instinct. If someone gives you bad vibes, you are probably justified. Essentially he was saying that almost every survivor of some horrific crime had a "feeling" about the person who committed it. My point is that someone like John Douglas has seen some of the most horrific things a human can do and still he has to let his children go out in the world and do what they need to do. It is his hope that he taught them to be smart and make the right choices.

Sooooo My point is that there is no way to predict who is going to commit a crime, linking crimes is something that good investigators do, but it takes a lot of factors for them to link crimes 100%. It has become easier with DNA, but a good example of how DNA is just starting to make the job easier is here in my state of Missouri. In the past month or two they linked one man to several cases that took place in the 60's and 70's in St Genevieve Mo and Southern Illinois, and for one no one really even knew there was a serial killer that struck back then, people had their suspicions that some of the cases could be linked but there was nothing solid until DNA. There was no definite signature in the killings, and the MO was different each time.


I think that in this case, while it may seem painfully slow, this perp is not experienced enough to keep suspicion away or to avoid scrutiny from a lot of other sources. I said it last week, but I think that there is going to be a break in the case very soon. I think that LE has people that they are looking at, and there is always the fact that they are waiting for him to do something suspicious so they can move in and have probable cause and not have to tip their hand and have the perp lawyer up and make it harder to nail him.
Your observations are particulary astute. I do feel you are correct.
  #17  
Old 02-25-2008, 08:58 PM
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Can you imagine the feeling of being examined by everyone you see because they think you could be a rapist/murderer?
I don't know which would be worse - feeling suspicious of everyone or everyone suspicious of you...I feel for you, adnoid.

This needs to get solved like yesterday.
  #18  
Old 02-26-2008, 12:05 AM
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There's an excellent new article up at the RGJ website. Although LE doesn't have any new information on the Brianna Denison case, they are taking a pro-active stance and conducting a community seminar on safety. The seminar will be taped and broadcast on local television. Here's the link..............

http://news.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/ar...2Fbreakingnews
  #19  
Old 02-26-2008, 12:12 AM
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Originally Posted by happy2bn10ec View Post
I don't know which would be worse - feeling suspicious of everyone or everyone suspicious of you...I feel for you, adnoid.

This needs to get solved like yesterday.
I feel for Brianna's family. I hope that whoever knows the perp finds it within themselves to make the phone call.
  #20  
Old 02-26-2008, 12:17 AM
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I feel for Brianna's family. I hope that whoever knows the perp finds it within themselves to make the phone call.
Saturday I talked to a client who has friends on the PD. He said they are flooded with tips, over 100; it just takes time to go through it all. Hopefully the right one will be there.
  #21  
Old 02-26-2008, 12:39 AM
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Saturday I talked to a client who has friends on the PD. He said they are flooded with tips, over 100; it just takes time to go through it all. Hopefully the right one will be there.
good deal..that's good to know!
  #22  
Old 02-26-2008, 12:50 AM
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Can you imagine the feeling of being examined by everyone you see because they think you could be a rapist/murderer?
i'm with Hap on this...i can't imagine which would be worse...scary all the way around
  #23  
Old 02-26-2008, 12:53 AM
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Let's hope that AMW will be airing the piece on Brianna's case and that it results in more good tips/leads!

Lion
  #24  
Old 02-26-2008, 12:56 AM
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Let's hope that AMW will be airing the piece on Brianna's case and that it results in more good tips/leads!

Lion
yes, let's hope LR!

hey adnoid...i'm looking at your pictures...was Brianna found in the weeds, the higher looking weeds, or in the less weeded area, where it looks like the weeds are laying down.....(hope i'm making myself clear)

for example...is this where she was found?
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v4...n/DSCN5217.jpg

or this?
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v4...n/DSCN5228.jpg
  #25  
Old 02-26-2008, 01:02 AM
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yes, let's hope LR!

hey adnoid...i'm looking at your pictures...was Brianna found in the weeds, the higher looking weeds, or in the less weeded area, where it looks like the weeds are laying down.....(hope i'm making myself clear)

for example...is this where she was found?
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v4...n/DSCN5217.jpg
Neither - my first guess was wrong. She was found here, where the rose petals are in the ditch:


http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v4...n/DSCN5227.jpg

Location marked with a blue dot on this map:

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v4...on/Windows.jpg
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