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  #276  
Old 08-04-2012, 11:40 AM
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Let me start with an apology for how long this post is and say that I think this group of people is outstanding in both what they do and they way they go about it. Thank God for people like you!

Here is a theory I haven’t seen discussed and it’s based on two child molesters I know of in real life. The “men” I know of, first the father, molested one of his daughters for years without being caught. He divorced his wife, married another woman who had to girls from a previous marriage and molested both of them (not reported) to authorities. The wife left him and he again married, another woman with a daughter. He molested that daughter and tried to get this girl’s cousin and her to have sexual contact with each other in front of him. Once again, this was kept secret by the family and the wife stayed and the abuser joined the wife’s church, confessed to the minister that he had “impure thoughts” and was forgiven (by the minister) and a prayed for by the minister. He did not die until years later and the wife eventually left him.

This man’s son married a woman with one daughter from a previous marriage and molested her daughter off and on for a period of years, beginning about age seven or eight. By the time she was sixteen, he got braver and tried to have her call her friend into the bedroom while he made the girl have sexual contact with him. This girl (the friend) did not tell her parents but the mother overheard her phone conversation with another school friend discussing this and laughing nervously. He mother called other mother, told her and advised she was also calling the police. In that case the mother also reported it, moved with-in a few days time and this man went to prison for not nearly long enough. This was before the mandatory registry laws, and though someone else had posted that the law went retroactive to some fifty years, my experience does not find that to be so.

Having said all of that, here is my loose theory which is MOO. A friend of the families has been abusing his child, grandchild, niece/nephew and had been grooming one or both E and L, having become braver. This person, since he/she was known to the family, could have enticed the girls away from their bikes on the day they went missing with any number of things, including the child he had been molesting. There could have been a vehicle parked in the spot that has been discussed as a possible “parking spot.” With the intent to see what he could get away with, never expecting this to go viral with FBI, CSI and all, he/she could have panicked and had to dispose of the girls.

Second possible scenario – assuming all of the previous but knowing his victim had told one or both of the girls what he/she had been doing, he/she planned to take them for a ride and have a very scary talk with them about what could happen if they told anyone what his victim had divulged to him/her. Once again, things took off very fast in trying to locate the girls and he/she had to silence them permanently.

This person could have known the families schedules for that day just by casual conversation with a family member or, more likely, arranged to meet them by the lake or meet his victim by the lake that day.
The purse being on the opposite side of the fence I haven’t figured out unless this person or his victim knew E had a cell phone that she carried and grabbed her purse and threw it over the fence.

What do you all think?
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  #277  
Old 08-04-2012, 11:42 AM
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Originally Posted by GrainneDhu View Post
Or Elizabeth could have been forced to throw her purse over the fence by the perp.

Since she had a cell phone in her purse, she may have known it could dial 911 even though deactivated. If Lyric was accosted by someone who reached out and jerked her off her bicycle as she went by (a lot easier to do than to type), Elizabeth may have fumbled with her purse to get to her phone.

The perp may have seen her fumble with her purse and ordered her to throw it over the fence. That would put it safely out of her reach quickly.

Then hustle the two girls to the end of the fence (approximately 100 yards) and into the woods.

I think this would be the fastest way to get the girls out of sight in the woods. Going up and over the fence would require the perpetrator to maintain control of at least one girl all the way up and over. I think it would be faster to walk the 100 yards briskly than it would be to climb a 6-8 foot fence.

In assessing whether something is "too risky," it's always important to ask who is assessing the risk. Someone normal or someone who has psychopathy?

To a psychopath, the salient features would be how quickly or easily something could be done rather than how risky that plan is.
Just curious why you wouldn't choose going in though the gate and accessing the woods from there? Visibility from across the lake or the nearby lake front properties?
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  #278  
Old 08-04-2012, 11:46 AM
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Originally Posted by Marnie View Post
I appreciate all the visual that you post, otto.

Just to be clear, the photo you are showing of LE on the lakeside of the fence was taken on Tuesday 7/17/2012, the second day into the draining of the lake. So the width of the lake bank they are walking on doesn't represent how it looked the day Lyric and Elizabeth went missing.

It may be a minor observation on my part, but I think important to those who believe the girls may have walked that bank back towards Maiden Lane.
Thank you. I was also wondering about what the normal water levels were like. I was comparing those photos to the aerial views and it didn't look the same. I guess that means that the girls would have had to hug the fence to walk in that area with normal water conditions ... which brings me back to wondering if they really went through the gate. At the same time, why would their bikes be parked at the gate if they didn't go through it? I suppose they would have taken the risk of going through the gate and hugging the fence if someone was there with some sort of water craft.

A paddle boat has been mentioned and many have assumed that means a pedal boat, but where I'm from, paddlers are kayakers and canoeists ... so a paddle boat is anything that uses a paddle.
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  #279  
Old 08-04-2012, 11:47 AM
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Thanks for posting those! Is that the gate that was found open in photo 12?
That's the gate, but we don't know if was standing open when the bikes were found. Wish we did.

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Originally Posted by Thinkzerz View Post
According to this video the family believes the girls were abducted elsewhere and the bikes placed there.

I truly can't see a perp taking time to stage their bikes. JMO
I can't either, if it was staged, then, imo, whoever did it wanted the bikes to definitely be found. Even if the perp was a local in the neighborhood with no transportation to take the bikes elsewhere would hide them in the woods. jmo
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  #280  
Old 08-04-2012, 11:48 AM
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Originally Posted by Copper View Post
I don't think the girls came to the lane via paddle boat. Besides the questions I have about using the paddle boat in the first place, looking at Otto's picture, it would seem pretty hard to go from lake to lane without disturbing the ground cover.

Also, same thing with walking up the lane to whereever a getaway vehicle was waiting. At least one abductor and two girls, seems like ground cover would be matted down enough to leave some trace.

Any of our locals know, is it all grown over? Are there foot trails that could hide the passage of people coming and going?
In the Iowa jungle, the underbrush is usually pretty springy. You usually have to push your way through it and it just bends and springs up again behind you.

Hay fields and suchlike are better for showing the trail of people on foot, particularly in this drought year.

In the woods, I doubt it.
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  #281  
Old 08-04-2012, 11:52 AM
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Originally Posted by GrainneDhu View Post
I'm thinking that LE was asking about a potential paddleboater in order to confirm witness testimony.

If one single witness mentioned seeing a paddleboater on the lake that day, I'd sure be interested to find out if the paddleboater existed or not.

For whatever it is worth, I think of a paddleboat as one of those foot pedalled things. A canoe or kayak is just that, a canoe or kayak. I've never heard of a canoe or kayak referred to as a paddleboat.
A pedal boat doesn't use a paddle, so why would police mention a paddle boat if they meant a pedal boat. Surely they know the difference. It's possible that police think a boat that needs a paddle was in the area, but they're uncertain whether the boat is a canoe or a kayak. Look up paddlers (even in connection with the olympics) and you arrive at canoes and kayaks.
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  #282  
Old 08-04-2012, 11:53 AM
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heres what ive been rolling around in my head:

mm said that lyric was to text her when she got off work to tell mm where she was.

why would she need to do that if lyric was going to leave at 1:30 with gramma?

lyric didnt take the/her phone.

so, either lyric was going to possibly meet up with her friends somewhere for some reason and then would text mm once she (lyric) had found her friends. she could have borrowed a friends phone if that was the case.... and assuming that ec would either stay with lyric or ride home alone???

or lyric already knew that she had to be back to leave with gramma, and if that was always the plan then why the need to text mcm to tell her where she was?

if the bikes were staged, and the girls were never at the lake, i feel that the perp would have to know them well enough to think that the staging area would be realistic otherwise why wouldnt they put the bikes and purse where they may never be found?

or, its was just a good opportunity to snatch two girls and just leave everything where it fell... ( this seems more likely imo )

the only thing still really bugging me is lyric needing to text mcm to tell her where she was going to be, as though it could have been more than one expected place...kwim?

Last edited by nervous_nellie; 08-04-2012 at 12:04 PM.
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  #283  
Old 08-04-2012, 11:53 AM
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Originally Posted by Double_GMA View Post
Let me start with an apology for how long this post is and say that I think this group of people is outstanding in both what they do and they way they go about it. Thank God for people like you!

Here is a theory I haven’t seen discussed and it’s based on two child molesters I know of in real life. The “men” I know of, first the father, molested one of his daughters for years without being caught. He divorced his wife, married another woman who had to girls from a previous marriage and molested both of them (not reported) to authorities. The wife left him and he again married, another woman with a daughter. He molested that daughter and tried to get this girl’s cousin and her to have sexual contact with each other in front of him. Once again, this was kept secret by the family and the wife stayed and the abuser joined the wife’s church, confessed to the minister that he had “impure thoughts” and was forgiven (by the minister) and a prayed for by the minister. He did not die until years later and the wife eventually left him.

This man’s son married a woman with one daughter from a previous marriage and molested her daughter off and on for a period of years, beginning about age seven or eight. By the time she was sixteen, he got braver and tried to have her call her friend into the bedroom while he made the girl have sexual contact with him. This girl (the friend) did not tell her parents but the mother overheard her phone conversation with another school friend discussing this and laughing nervously. He mother called other mother, told her and advised she was also calling the police. In that case the mother also reported it, moved with-in a few days time and this man went to prison for not nearly long enough. This was before the mandatory registry laws, and though someone else had posted that the law went retroactive to some fifty years, my experience does not find that to be so.

Having said all of that, here is my loose theory which is MOO. A friend of the families has been abusing his child, grandchild, niece/nephew and had been grooming one or both E and L, having become braver. This person, since he/she was known to the family, could have enticed the girls away from their bikes on the day they went missing with any number of things, including the child he had been molesting. There could have been a vehicle parked in the spot that has been discussed as a possible “parking spot.” With the intent to see what he could get away with, never expecting this to go viral with FBI, CSI and all, he/she could have panicked and had to dispose of the girls.

Second possible scenario – assuming all of the previous but knowing his victim had told one or both of the girls what he/she had been doing, he/she planned to take them for a ride and have a very scary talk with them about what could happen if they told anyone what his victim had divulged to him/her. Once again, things took off very fast in trying to locate the girls and he/she had to silence them permanently.

This person could have known the families schedules for that day just by casual conversation with a family member or, more likely, arranged to meet them by the lake or meet his victim by the lake that day.
The purse being on the opposite side of the fence I haven’t figured out unless this person or his victim knew E had a cell phone that she carried and grabbed her purse and threw it over the fence.

What do you all think?
I think we can all say that the girls were taken for sexual purposes. And i see what your saying that the girls may have been assaulted before this. But why on earth would the girls be willing to go meet someone there, that they know touches them the wrong way?
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  #284  
Old 08-04-2012, 11:55 AM
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Originally Posted by GrainneDhu View Post
I'm thinking that LE was asking about a potential paddleboater in order to confirm witness testimony.

If one single witness mentioned seeing a paddleboater on the lake that day, I'd sure be interested to find out if the paddleboater existed or not.

For whatever it is worth, I think of a paddleboat as one of those foot pedalled things. A canoe or kayak is just that, a canoe or kayak. I've never heard of a canoe or kayak referred to as a paddleboat.
BBM. Exactly, and LE/FBI would be very specific in their description.
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  #285  
Old 08-04-2012, 11:57 AM
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Originally Posted by nervous_nellie View Post
heres what ive been rolling around in my head:

mm said that lyric was to text her when she got off work to tell mm where she was.

why would she need to do that if lyric was going to leave at 1:30 with gramma?

lyric didnt take the/her phone.

so, either lyric was going to possibly meet up with her friends somewhere for some reason and then would text mm once she (lyric) had found her friends. she could have borrowed a friends phone if that was the case.... and assuming that ec would either stay with lyric or ride home alone???

or lyric already knew that she had to be back to leave with gramma, and if that was always the plan then why the need to text mcm to tell her where she was?

if the bikes were staged, and the girls were never at the lake, i feel that the perp would have to know them well enough to think that the staging area would be realistic otherwise why wouldnt they put the bikes and purse where they may never be found?

or, its was just a good opportunity to snatch two girls and just leave everything where it fell... ( this seems more likely imo )

the only thing still really bugging me is lyric needing to text mcm to tell her where she was going to be, as though is could have been more than one expected place...kwim?

Maybe Lyric had the option of spending the night with Elizabeth or going home with grandma, in which case, Misty would need to drive home to Waterloo to be with her.
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  #286  
Old 08-04-2012, 11:57 AM
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Originally Posted by auntiejoe View Post
Found other pic's. Look at photo #15. Is that the gate?


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/0...#slide=1233332
Sure looks like it. I get the impression that the gate was specifically used to access the drainage pipe so I'm really surprised that it was left unlocked, and that people knew that it had been unlocked since the lake was drained two years earlier.
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Old 08-04-2012, 11:59 AM
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I know a lot of people have a theory of how the abductor would use the paddle boat to lure the girls. I have a hard time with it though. If it was of such great interest at the beginning of the case, wouldn't LE have checked for fingerprints or other evidence on the boat itself. My problem is, if the boat came back clean for unknown prints (those other than the owners), we have to assume the abductor wiped it down thoroughly after kidnapping the girls. Who would have time to do this other than the owners? (Not implying they did it at all). The person who used it had to take it, paddle it across the lake (alone?), get two girls into it, paddle someplace and bring it back without the owners seeing ... how would he/she know when they would be returning? Also, being in the middle of a lake with two girls in a boat is leaving you in plain sight for as long as it takes you to get to your destination. I would think someone committing a crime wouldn't want to be out and about for very long. In college, I was in a rowboat with a few friends, two of whom decided to smoke an illegal substance. I remember seeing a police car on one of the nearby streets and I yelled at them, "If they see you, idiots, we're in trouble! It's not like we can row away and hide!"
I don't think a perp ever actually had the girls on a paddle boat. But I do believe he could have 'lured' them away with the 'PROMISE' of riding a boat.

He could have spoken to them on the shore, maybe while fishing. Or maybe the girls saw him on the boat on an earlier day or time. And he could have said "Do you girls want to borrow the boat?"

Sure, you can---just leave the bikes here and we can walk over to the yard and get the boat....
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  #288  
Old 08-04-2012, 11:59 AM
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I think we can all say that the girls were taken for sexual purposes. And i see what your saying that the girls may have been assaulted before this. But why on earth would the girls be willing to go meet someone there, that they know touches them the wrong way?

No, in this post what I was trying to say is that a friend of the family was molesting his own child (or relative) - not Elizabeth or Lyric. Sorry if I didn't make that clear.
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  #289  
Old 08-04-2012, 12:01 PM
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Just curious why you wouldn't choose going in though the gate and accessing the woods from there? Visibility from across the lake or the nearby lake front properties?
Visibility from across the lake plus the narrowness of the strip of land immediately adjacent to the gate.

I could see kids inching their way across that 12 inch strip by hanging onto the fence but I can't see an adult doing so while maintaining control over at least one girl. Just not enough hands to deal with holding onto the fence, holding onto a girl and holding onto a weapon.
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Old 08-04-2012, 12:05 PM
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I think we can all say that the girls were taken for sexual purposes. And i see what your saying that the girls may have been assaulted before this. But why on earth would the girls be willing to go meet someone there, that they know touches them the wrong way?
I was abused sexually by an older family member for years, and was the same age as Lizzie when it was happening. Believe it or not, it can be very confusing. And you do often follow their instructions, and meet them when they ask. The emotions are powerful and are a mixture of fear, fascination and guilt and shame, so the abusers have a lot of control.
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Old 08-04-2012, 12:06 PM
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A pedal boat doesn't use a paddle, so why would police mention a paddle boat if they meant a pedal boat. Surely they know the difference. It's possible that police think a boat that needs a paddle was in the area, but they're uncertain whether the boat is a canoe or a kayak. Look up paddlers (even in connection with the olympics) and you arrive at canoes and kayaks.
FWIW, where I am from a the boats you rent and pedal are called paddle boats. No they don't use an oar but that is what we call them.
Click to View Search Results for google - Google Search google - Google Search

If you look at the link it shows pictures of paddle boats as the boats you pedal. Think it is a case of different areas using different terms, Pedal boat and Paddle boat for the same thing. Same as soda or pop.
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Old 08-04-2012, 12:07 PM
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I don't think a perp ever actually had the girls on a paddle boat. But I do believe he could have 'lured' them away with the 'PROMISE' of riding a boat.

He could have spoken to them on the shore, maybe while fishing. Or maybe the girls saw him on the boat on an earlier day or time. And he could have said "Do you girls want to borrow the boat?"

Sure, you can---just leave the bikes here and we can walk over to the yard and get the boat....
Where would they lure them to if there was no more scent of them found there? Don't mean to sound snarky. Just want LE to find these girls. It has been to long.
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Old 08-04-2012, 12:07 PM
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I think we can all say that the girls were taken for sexual purposes. And i see what your saying that the girls may have been assaulted before this. But why on earth would the girls be willing to go meet someone there, that they know touches them the wrong way?
maybe "grooming" and thought this person really cared about them... me and you know that this is abuse, but young kids that may be unstable etc. may not figure this out ... not fast enough anyway.
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Old 08-04-2012, 12:08 PM
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I believe whatever happened, happened between 12:15 and 1:30, because they knew they had to get back so Lyric could leave with Gma at 1:30. I doubt that Lyric would risk getting in trouble again, due to the incident a few days before. Plus, that was a pretty long time for them to be gone. Moo
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Old 08-04-2012, 12:10 PM
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BBM. Exactly, and LE/FBI would be very specific in their description.
How could police know whether it was a kayak or canoe ... and if they were going to be very specific, why would they say a paddle boat if they meant a pedal boat. There's a huge difference between the two.
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Old 08-04-2012, 12:11 PM
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im also very curious why there has not been anymore foot searches? or someone contacting Tim Miller... unfortunately i dont think they are very far... moo.
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Old 08-04-2012, 12:12 PM
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im also very curious why there has not been anymore foot searches? or someone contacting Tim Miller... unfortunately i dont think they are very far... moo.
Who is Tim Miller?
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Old 08-04-2012, 12:13 PM
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A pedal boat doesn't use a paddle, so why would police mention a paddle boat if they meant a pedal boat. Surely they know the difference. It's possible that police think a boat that needs a paddle was in the area, but they're uncertain whether the boat is a canoe or a kayak. Look up paddlers (even in connection with the olympics) and you arrive at canoes and kayaks.
The description of Pedal vs. Paddle might be a geographic difference in language terms. I call a boat with pedals a "paddle" boat because everyone else here in this region knows it as this.

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Old 08-04-2012, 12:14 PM
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I was abused sexually by an older family member for years, and was the same age as Lizzie when it was happening. Believe it or not, it can be very confusing. And you do often follow their instructions, and meet them when they ask. The emotions are powerful and are a mixture of fear, fascination and guilt and shame, so the abusers have a lot of control.
First, I wish you had no personal knowledge of this. I pray you are doing ok. And yes, the power a child molester has over their victim(s) is as complex as it gets. To those never exposed to this horrendous lifestyle it would be difficult to comprehend the action or responses of victims.
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Old 08-04-2012, 12:15 PM
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FWIW, where I am from a the boats you rent and pedal are called paddle boats. No they don't use an oar but that is what we call them.
google - Google Search

If you look at the link it shows pictures of paddle boats as the boats you pedal. Think it is a case of different areas using different terms, Pedal boat and Paddle boat for the same thing. Same as soda or pop.
My son is a rower, and all the other boats are paddle boats ... that's how people involved with non-motor water sports and rowing refer to canoes and kayaks.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv...ak/canhist.htm
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Found Deceased IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, and Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #22 nikkiw319 Located Forum Discussion 1931 12-10-2012 02:46 AM
Found Deceased IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, and Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #19 nikkiw319 Located Forum Discussion 1742 09-17-2012 02:16 AM
Found Deceased IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, and Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #13 nikkiw319 Located Forum Discussion 1293 08-09-2012 08:48 PM
Found Deceased IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, and Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #11 nikkiw319 Located Forum Discussion 1109 08-03-2012 06:09 PM
Found Deceased IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, and Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #2 nikkiw319 Located Forum Discussion 989 07-17-2012 10:31 PM


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