FL FL - Michelle Parker, 33, Orlando, 17 Nov 2011 - #22

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Thor said:
Yes of course, you're right, my apologies, I commented on the wrong post, but you were referring to that particular quote as so was I. Particularly I was trying to figure out in what context that link and those quotations were being considered.
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No worries. That happens.
 
Kamille said:
Yes Jazzmaster there was one and I know I read it but for the life of me I can't find it now. So for the sake of argument let's go with LE have stated they have evidence....

ORLANDO - The Florida Department of Law Enforcement and the Orlando Police Department are assembling a daylong Specialized Multi Agency Review Team (SMART) to examine the evidence collected in the Michelle Parker missing person case.

http://www.fdle.state.fl.us/Content/News/FDLE-and-Orlando-Police-to-convene-review-team-in-.aspx

And at the time of naming DSJR the prime suspect, Police Chief Rooney stated they had numerous tips and investigative leads...

"After numerous tips and investigative leads, we are officially naming Dale Smith, the ex-fiance, as the primary suspect in the disappearance of Michelle Parker," Orlando Police Chief Paul Rooney said in a press conference Monday.

http://www.christianpost.com/news/missing-mom-michelle-parker-ex-fiance-named-prime-suspect-63337/


When I come across the article that stated evidence and witness statements I'll post it.

Here's another recent statement from Chief Rooney...

Police chief Paul Rooney of the Orlando Police Department said, “This case, we do have a very, very serious person of interest. We all know that. We’ve had this person of interest from day one, and all we need to do is fit that missing piece of the puzzle.”

http://today.msnbc.msn.com/id/47563...helle-parkers-mom-kids-not-same-she-vanished/

MOO
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I could swear I read it too, but I can't find it either. It's possible I saw it on a news video. If that's the case, unless there's an accompanying transcript, Google is not at all helpful.
 
"And at the time of naming DSJR the prime suspect, Police Chief Rooney stated they had numerous tips and investigative leads..."

"After numerous tips and investigative leads, we are officially naming Dale Smith, the ex-fiance, as the primary suspect in the disappearance of Michelle Parker," Orlando Police Chief Paul Rooney said in a press conference Monday.

I think one must notice what has not being stated in both those quotation, which is a specific correlation between unspecified tips and evidence and the naming of DS as a suspect. IMO That is not by chance and the reasons may be several:

1. The police are not discussing evidence publicly as they have a professional duty not to do so.

2. Evidence might be weak and/or unreliable in whole or in part.

3. Evidence might be significant and/or sensitive and can tip off a particular suspect.

4. They are concerned about a civil lawsuit from the suspect if it turns out evidence were not conclusive or reliable but nevertheless used publicly against said suspect.

and so on ... This is so whether it would be an official statement or a leak within the investigation. JMO
 
Thor said:

I think one must notice what has not being stated in both those quotation, which is a specific correlation between unspecified tips and evidence and the naming of DS as a suspect. IMO
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[snipped by me]

"After numerous tips and investigative leads, we are officially naming Dale Smith, the ex-fiance, as the primary suspect in the disappearance of Michelle Parker," Orlando Police Chief Paul Rooney said in a press conference Monday.

That is pretty specific, IMO.
 
SleuthDecay said:
[snipped by me]

"After numerous tips and investigative leads, we are officially naming Dale Smith, the ex-fiance, as the primary suspect in the disappearance of Michelle Parker," Orlando Police Chief Paul Rooney said in a press conference Monday.

That is pretty specific, IMO.
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By specific it is intended what evidence, what kind? Specific would be ... "we have strong evidence that point to DS and that is why we named him a suspect", unspecific is "we have evidence and we have a suspect". There is a qualitative difference between the two especially in light of a another quotation that is often ignored: "we have limited evidence and little information" (might be slightly paraphrasing here) JMO
 
Thor said:
By specific it is intended what evidence, what kind? Specific would be ... "we have strong evidence that point to DS and that is why we named him a suspect", unspecific is "we have evidence and we have a suspect". There is a qualitative difference between the two especially in light of a another quotation that is often ignored: "we have limited evidence and little information" (might be slightly paraphrasing here) JMO
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Ah, okay, gotcha. While you're absolutely right that they didn't specifically say "we have strong evidence that points to Dale Smith II", I think what they did say is unambiguous, i.e., the "numerous tips and investigative leads" point directly toward Dale.

Totally off-topic, and please don't feel like you have to answer this, but by any chance are you ESL? I sometimes get the feeling that certain parts of your comments are "lost in translation", so to speak. That is not meant to be disparaging toward you in the least, just trying to gain a better understanding of some of your remarks. My apologies if this question is too personal. By no means should you feel obligated to answer.
 
SleuthDecay said:
Ah, okay, gotcha. While you're absolutely right that they didn't specifically say "we have strong evidence that points to Dale Smith II", I think what they did say is unambiguous, i.e., the "numerous tips and investigative leads" point directly toward Dale.

Totally off-topic, and please don't feel like you have to answer this, but by any chance are you ESL? I sometimes get the feeling that certain parts of your comments are "lost in translation", so to speak. That is not meant to be disparaging toward you in the least, just trying to gain a better understanding of some of your remarks. My apologies if this question is too personal. By no means should you feel obligated to answer.
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Yes I agree that practically speaking it is unambiguous, but that was not my point here, I was suggesting that an analysis of the way they so carefully phrase their statements here strongly suggest to me they have ... well ... "limited evidence and limited info" and that this case is very far from being solved if at all and believe me when I say that I hope this is one of those times I'm wrong.

As to your question (and I don't feel at all you were trying to disparage me in any way), YES I'm ESL, I believe in one of my very early post I indicated just that and I think my usual dislike of grammatical contraptions usually give me away, like do not as opposite to don't, it is ultimately an occupational hazard since I am, among other things, a linguist.

Addendum:
it is practically impossible to mechanically translate from one language to another (at a higher level), not just because of verbs, adverbs, subject pronouns and so on but most importantly because of idiomatic expressions particular to a given language and its culture. Notwithstanding the essential difference between speaking a language and mastering a language, anyone can speak English in a practical way by knowing roughly 500 words, but to really speak it is entirely a different matter.
 
Thor said:
"And at the time of naming DSJR the prime suspect, Police Chief Rooney stated they had numerous tips and investigative leads..."

"After numerous tips and investigative leads, we are officially naming Dale Smith, the ex-fiance, as the primary suspect in the disappearance of Michelle Parker," Orlando Police Chief Paul Rooney said in a press conference Monday.

I think one must notice what has not being stated in both those quotation, which is a specific correlation between unspecified tips and evidence and the naming of DS as a suspect. IMO That is not by chance and the reasons may be several:

1. The police are not discussing evidence publicly as they have a professional duty not to do so.

2. Evidence might be weak and/or unreliable in whole or in part.

3. Evidence might be significant and/or sensitive and can tip off a particular suspect.

4. They are concerned about a civil lawsuit from the suspect if it turns out evidence were not conclusive or reliable but nevertheless used publicly against said suspect.

and so on ... This is so whether it would be an official statement or a leak within the investigation. JMO
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I vote for #3 based on what HAS been released...it ALL points back to Dale IMO.
 
Thor said:
Yes I agree that practically speaking it is unambiguous, but that was not my point here, I was suggesting that an analysis of the way they so carefully phrase their statements here strongly suggest to me they have ... well ... "limited evidence and limited info" and that this case is very far from being solved if at all and believe me when I say that I hope this is one of those times I'm wrong.

As to your question (and I don't feel at all you were trying to disparage me in any way), YES I'm ESL, I believe in one of my very early post I indicated just that and I think my usual dislike of grammatical contraptions usually give me away, like do not as opposite to don't, it is ultimately an occupational hazard since I am, among other things, a linguist.

Addendum:
it is practically impossible to mechanically translate from one language to another (at a higher level), not just because of verbs, adverbs, subject pronouns and so on but most importantly because of idiomatic expressions particular to a given language and its culture. Notwithstanding the essential difference between speaking a language and mastering a language, anyone can speak English in a practical way by knowing roughly 500 words, but to really speak it is entirely a different matter.
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My favorite phrase in this case thus far is "Dale is guilty"...;)
 
Jazzmaster said:
My favorite phrase in this case thus far is "Dale is guilty"...;)
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LOL my favorite phrase in this case and thus far is from the latin (speaking of ESL):

"Errare humanum est, perseverare diabolicum est" ... just kidding Jazz, glad to see you back and in form.
 
Thor said:
LOL my favorite phrase in this case and thus far is from the latin (speaking of ESL):

"Errare humanum est, perseverare diabolicum est" ... just kidding Jazz, glad to see you back and in form.
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Well the devil aka Dale is in the details...jmo ;)
 
Thor said:
LOL my favorite phrase in this case and thus far is from the latin (speaking of ESL):

"Errare humanum est, perseverare diabolicum est" ... just kidding Jazz, glad to see you back and in form.
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Now how do you account for Dale going missing for at least 3 and a half hours (4:30-8:00pm) where he was unable to be reached by phone in the critical hours when Michelle went missing?
 
Thor said:
Yes I agree that practically speaking it is unambiguous, but that was not my point here, I was suggesting that an analysis of the way they so carefully phrase their statements here strongly suggest to me they have ... well ... "limited evidence and limited info" and that this case is very far from being solved if at all and believe me when I say I hope this is one of those time I'm wrong.

As to your other question (and I don't feel at all you were trying to disparage me in any way), YES I'm ESL, I believe in one of my very early post I indicated just that and I think my usual dislike of grammatical contraptions usually give me away, like do not as opposite to don't, it is ultimately an occupational hazard since I am, among other things, a linguist.
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Now that I've had time to think about it, I shouldn't have asked about ESL. It seems rather rude in hindsight, and I apologize. I wasn't putting down your English at all. It's quite good, actually (better than the majority of EFLs). And it's none of my business anyway. I was just curious. But thank you for being gracious in your reply.

To get back on topic, I too hope you're wrong about the case being "far from solved". For the record, I disagree with your assessment. My belief is that Dale will be arrested and charged when Michelle's remains are found. JMO.
 
Jazzmaster said:
Now how do you account for Dale going missing for at least 3 and a half hours (4:30-8:00pm) where he was unable to be reached by phone in the critical hours when Michelle went missing?
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He might have been abducting then killing Michelle and ultimately disposing of her body. The problem with all of that is of course the lack of evidence. I do understand where you come from Jazz, but wanting justice for MP does not translate unfortunately (Again speaking a la ESL LoL) into anyone being found guilty. You simply cannot get around IMO that underlying problem here so that ultimately we stumble into speaking of articles of faith as opposite to evidence and the opinions extrapolated from them. This is of course just another opinion in itself and so it goes and goes just like a dog chasing its own tail. However, whether or not Dale is guilty is not necessarily crucial to the principal question of where is Michelle. .
 
Thor said:
He might have been abducting then killing Michelle and ultimately disposing of her body. The problem with all of that is of course the lack of evidence. I do understand where you come from Jazz, but wanting justice for MP does not translate unfortunately (Again speaking a la ESL LoL) into anyone being found guilty. You simply cannot get around IMO that underlying problem here so that ultimately we stumble into speaking of articles of faith as opposite to evidence and the opinions extrapolated from them. This is of course just another opinion in itself and so it goes and goes just like a dog chasing its own tail. However, whether or not Dale is guilty is not necessarily crucial to the principal question of where is Michelle. .
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But Dale being guilty is criitical IMO...knowing Dale's patterns inside and out leads to the possibilities of where Michelle may be. If it's not Dale...she literally COULD be almost anywhere because the timeline is without known boundaries.

With Dale as a suspect you can limit the possibilities of where Michelle may be because you can limit the known boundaries to some degree. Given that Dale was involved IMO AND missing during the critical hours when Michelle went missing....this leads us to a limited number of possibilities therefore increasing our chances of locating Michelle. So by assuming Dale is guilty and if he is in deed GUILTY which I believe he is...then we have increased our odds of finding where he hid Michelle.
 
Thor said:
He might have been abducting then killing Michelle and ultimately disposing of her body. .
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BTW glad to see your mind opening to the possibility that Dale may be involved ;)
 
Jazzmaster said:
But Dale being guilty is criitical IMO...knowing Dale's patterns inside and out leads to the possibilities of where Michelle may be. If it's not Dale...she literally COULD be almost anywhere because the timeline is without known boundaries.

With Dale as a suspect you can limit the possibilities of where Michelle may be because you can limit the known boundaries to some degree. Given that Dale was involved IMO AND missing during the critical hours when Michelle went missing....this leads us to a limited number of possibilities therefore increasing our chances of locating Michelle. So by assuming Dale is guilty and if he is in deed GUILTY which I believe he is...then we have increased our odds of finding where he hid Michelle.
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I agree, Jazz. If Dale is responsible for Michelle's disappearance, then the search can reasonably be limited to the Central Florida area. If a stalker or stranger is responsible (and I don't believe this for a second), then she could be anywhere.
 
Jazzmaster said:
But Dale being guilty is criitical IMO...knowing Dale's patterns inside and out leads to the possibilities of where Michelle may be. If it's not Dale...she literally COULD be almost anywhere because the timeline is without known boundaries.

With Dale as a suspect you can limit the possibilities of where Michelle may be because you can limit the known boundaries to some degree. Given that Dale was involved IMO AND missing during the critical hours when Michelle went missing....this leads us to a limited number of possibilities therefore increasing our chances of locating Michelle. So by assuming Dale is guilty and if he is in deed GUILTY which I believe he is...then we have increased our odds of finding where he hid Michelle.
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I think quite the contrary could be argued as true. Limiting oneself to Dale and only Dale is only optimal assuming he is in fact guilty, but just suppose for the sake of the argument that he's not responsible, then any search conducted under that assumption would have been unarguably futile.

I do understand also that not having another suspect leads inevitably to speculate and form opinions about Dale and only Dale, and that is fine as long we don't mistake lack of evidence as evidence of this or that.

Also, no matter what percentage of chance one might give it and if any, one cannot absolutely discount the possibility of an unknown predator and a location where he might have hidden the body, is not that it has not happened before and it actually has, quite frequently unfortunately I might add.

Lastly I think this debate would be much more interesting if and when the police release more evidence and especially if they charge Dale or somebody else with the crime. AMO
 
Thor said:
I think quite the contrary could be argued as true. Limiting oneself to Dale and only Dale is only optimal assuming he is in fact guilty, but just suppose for the sake of the argument that he's not responsible, then any search conducted under that assumption would have been unarguably futile.

I do understand also that not having another suspect leads inevitably to speculate and form opinions about Dale and only Dale, and that is fine as long we don't mistake lack of evidence as evidence of this or that.

Also, no matter what percentage of chance one might give it and if any, one cannot possibly and absolutely discount the possibility of an unknown predator and a location where he might have hidden the body, is not that it has not happened before and it actually has, quite frequently unfortunately I might add.

Lastly I think this debate would be much more interesting if and when the police release more evidence and especially if they charge Dale or somebody else with the crime. AMO
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MOO I put the odds of Dale being involved at 100% and the odds of it being an unknown predator at 0%....I could imagine all I want...in fact until the cows come home...but that would not bring us ANY closer to finding Michelle. Now had I not seen what I have seen and did not know what I know I could reasonably look at other unknown suspects as possibilities...
 
Jazzmaster said:
MOO I put the odds of Dale being involved at 100% and the odds of it being an unknown predator at 0%....I could imagine all I want...in fact until the cows come home...but that would not bring us ANY closer to finding Michelle. Now had I not seen what I have seen and did not know what I know I could reasonably look at other unknown suspects as possibilities...
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And that is the exact intersection where we can agree to disagree thus finding a common ground. The facts however need no such compromise, and that is why Dale has not been charged, when and if they do change and Dale is in fact charged then it would be a different discussion entirely.
 
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