Intruder probability more, less, or same?

Did probability of intruder change with DNA evidence?

  • Probability went way up.

    Votes: 17 28.3%
  • Probability went up somewhat.

    Votes: 9 15.0%
  • Probability went down.

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Probability was unchanged.

    Votes: 34 56.7%

  • Total voters
    60
A LOT of third-party opinions. One or two can be dismissed. Eight or nine, you have to wonder.

Ask BPD why they were all dismissed. Nobody talks about prior abuse, its a myth, a claim, an opinion, not a case fact. Its also crass if IDI turns out to be true.
 
Who says? You?

Try again, HOTYH. Let's take a look at the autopsy report itself:

A 1 cm red-purple area of abrasion is located on the right posterolateral area of the 1x1 cm hymeneal orifice. The hymen itself is represented by a rim of tissue extending clockwise from between the 2:00 and 10:00 positions. The area of abrasion is present at approximately the 7:00 position and appears to involve the hymen and the distal right vaginal wall."

The "1x1 cm hymeneal orifice" is the bell-ringer here. That means that the opening in JonBenet's six-year-old hymen was one centimeter by one centimeter. This is twice the size of a so-called normal hymeneal opening for a girl this age. In a September 1999 study for the Medical Journal Family Medicine titled "Genital Findings in Prepubertal Girls Evaluated for Sexual Abuse: A Different Perspective on Hymeneal Measurements," Dr. Perry Pugno said:

"Girls with no definitive signs of genital trauma exhibited a mean transhymenal diameter of 2.3 mm and in general showed an increase of approximately 1 mm per year of age. Girls with definitive signs of genital trauma exhibited a mean transhymenal diameter of 9.0 mm and no significant variance with age. Correcting for age differences, the transhymenal diameter was highly significant as a differentiating factor (F=1079, P<.001). When compared against the criterion standard, the transhymenal measurement is 99% specific and 79% sensitive as a screening tool."

Again, from the report:

"Vaginal Mucosa: All of the sections contain vascular congestion and focal interstitial chronic inflammation. The smallest piece of tissue, from the 7:00 position of the wall/hymen, contains epithelial erosion with underlying capillary congestion. A small number of red blood cells is present on the eroded surface. Acute inflammatory infiltrate is not seen."

Inflammation refers to an irritation that may involve pain, redness, heat (thus the term) and swelling. Here, take your fingernails and scratch your arm. Did you see how the skin became red? That's because the blood has come to the surface to heal the injury. This is known as acute inflammation. That means that JonBenet's vagina was injured or irritated and her body's systems went to work to try and heal her. It's the chronic part that seals the deal. The Bantam Medical Dictionary defines "chronic" as a disease or injury of long duration, and states that when healing does not occur, inflammation becomes chronic. In plain English, that means that JonBenet had old inflammation that had not been allowed to heal. This did not happen all at once. Even more damning is the term "erosion." No point in trying to obfuscate the issue: that means that layers of flesh in JonBenet's vagina had been worn away over time; stripped away by continuous invasion. Old and new vaginal injuries. It couldn't be any plainer than that.

And as if that weren't enough, one of the experts consulted was Dr. John McCann from the Univsersity of California at Davis. McCann is considered by many to be the world's leading authority on child sexual abuse. In fact, he was instrumental in establishing the proper methods and findings for determining child sexual abuse. His findings have been crucial in preventing misdiagnosis of child sexual abuse, such as happened in the McMartin trial. McCann was contacted in mid-1997 to give a report for the police department. His findings were written down in the police reports and later transcribed by Bonita Sauer, a Denver legal secretary:

"According to McCann, examination findings that indicate chronic sexual abuse include the thickness of the rim of the hymen, irregularity of the edge of the hymen, the width or narrowness of the wall of the hymen, and exposure of structures of the vagina normally covered by the hymen. His report stated that there was evidence of prior hymeneal trauma as all of these criteria were seen in the post mortem examination of JonBenet.
"There was a three dimensional thickening from inside to outside on the inferior hymeneal rim with a bruise apparent on the external surface of the hymen and a narrowing of the hymeneal rim from the edge of the hymen to where it attaches to the muscular portion of the vaginal openings. At the narrowing area, there appeared to be very little if any hymen present. There was also exposure of the vaginal rugae, a structure of the vagina which is normally covered by an intact hymen. The hymeneal orifice measured one centimeter which is abnormal or unusual for this particular age group and is further evidence of prior sexual abuse with a more recent injury as shown by the bruised area on the inferior hymeneal rim."


So no, it's not me.
 
Why would Meyer chat with LA, expressing his so-called 'opinions of chronic abuse' on one hand, and write down ABSOLUTELY NOTHING ABOUT IT ON THE FINAL DIAGNOSIS??? Is this where we get paranoid and cite fear of the rich on his part?

Oh sure! Like NOBODY ever made an off-the-record statement before!
 
Oh sure! Like NOBODY ever made an off-the-record statement before!

Nice try, but it would've been part of the final diagnosis if it was part of the conversation.

Meyer: "Oh BTW and off the record, my opinion is that JBR was previously chronically abused. Is it OK for me to leave that out of my report?"

Thats absurd.
 
Try again, HOTYH. Let's take a look at the autopsy report itself:

A 1 cm red-purple area of abrasion is located on the right posterolateral area of the 1x1 cm hymeneal orifice. The hymen itself is represented by a rim of tissue extending clockwise from between the 2:00 and 10:00 positions. The area of abrasion is present at approximately the 7:00 position and appears to involve the hymen and the distal right vaginal wall."

The "1x1 cm hymeneal orifice" is the bell-ringer here. That means that the opening in JonBenet's six-year-old hymen was one centimeter by one centimeter. This is twice the size of a so-called normal hymeneal opening for a girl this age. In a September 1999 study for the Medical Journal Family Medicine titled "Genital Findings in Prepubertal Girls Evaluated for Sexual Abuse: A Different Perspective on Hymeneal Measurements," Dr. Perry Pugno said:

"Girls with no definitive signs of genital trauma exhibited a mean transhymenal diameter of 2.3 mm and in general showed an increase of approximately 1 mm per year of age. Girls with definitive signs of genital trauma exhibited a mean transhymenal diameter of 9.0 mm and no significant variance with age. Correcting for age differences, the transhymenal diameter was highly significant as a differentiating factor (F=1079, P<.001). When compared against the criterion standard, the transhymenal measurement is 99% specific and 79% sensitive as a screening tool."

Again, from the report:

"Vaginal Mucosa: All of the sections contain vascular congestion and focal interstitial chronic inflammation. The smallest piece of tissue, from the 7:00 position of the wall/hymen, contains epithelial erosion with underlying capillary congestion. A small number of red blood cells is present on the eroded surface. Acute inflammatory infiltrate is not seen."

Inflammation refers to an irritation that may involve pain, redness, heat (thus the term) and swelling. Here, take your fingernails and scratch your arm. Did you see how the skin became red? That's because the blood has come to the surface to heal the injury. This is known as acute inflammation. That means that JonBenet's vagina was injured or irritated and her body's systems went to work to try and heal her. It's the chronic part that seals the deal. The Bantam Medical Dictionary defines "chronic" as a disease or injury of long duration, and states that when healing does not occur, inflammation becomes chronic. In plain English, that means that JonBenet had old inflammation that had not been allowed to heal. This did not happen all at once. Even more damning is the term "erosion." No point in trying to obfuscate the issue: that means that layers of flesh in JonBenet's vagina had been worn away over time; stripped away by continuous invasion. Old and new vaginal injuries. It couldn't be any plainer than that.

And as if that weren't enough, one of the experts consulted was Dr. John McCann from the Univsersity of California at Davis. McCann is considered by many to be the world's leading authority on child sexual abuse. In fact, he was instrumental in establishing the proper methods and findings for determining child sexual abuse. His findings have been crucial in preventing misdiagnosis of child sexual abuse, such as happened in the McMartin trial. McCann was contacted in mid-1997 to give a report for the police department. His findings were written down in the police reports and later transcribed by Bonita Sauer, a Denver legal secretary:

"According to McCann, examination findings that indicate chronic sexual abuse include the thickness of the rim of the hymen, irregularity of the edge of the hymen, the width or narrowness of the wall of the hymen, and exposure of structures of the vagina normally covered by the hymen. His report stated that there was evidence of prior hymeneal trauma as all of these criteria were seen in the post mortem examination of JonBenet.
"There was a three dimensional thickening from inside to outside on the inferior hymeneal rim with a bruise apparent on the external surface of the hymen and a narrowing of the hymeneal rim from the edge of the hymen to where it attaches to the muscular portion of the vaginal openings. At the narrowing area, there appeared to be very little if any hymen present. There was also exposure of the vaginal rugae, a structure of the vagina which is normally covered by an intact hymen. The hymeneal orifice measured one centimeter which is abnormal or unusual for this particular age group and is further evidence of prior sexual abuse with a more recent injury as shown by the bruised area on the inferior hymeneal rim."

So no, it's not me.

I think if you studied your own post, you'd find there's a great deal of significant injuries sustained by JBR that night. Injuries that you're claiming are prior are really from that night.
 
Don't let me stop you!

I take it you now understand tissue erosion, that you in your own post quoted the coroner as 'abrasion', and how this isn't 'over time' as if it took days, weeks, months, or years? That an abrasion can and does happen in an instant?
 

Of course there is! Why was your army of doctors standing ready to declare JBR previously parentally abused, dismissed by the investigative authority?

Or was McMann invited to Boulder to discuss his findings in more detail?
 
Nice try, but it would've been part of the final diagnosis if it was part of the conversation.

Meyer: "Oh BTW and off the record, my opinion is that JBR was previously chronically abused. Is it OK for me to leave that out of my report?"

Thats absurd.

Your assertion is absurd. The autopsy report can only report what the injuries were, NOT what caused them. Any amateur knows that.
 
Your assertion is absurd. The autopsy report can only report what the injuries were, NOT what caused them. Any amateur knows that.

You'd better re-read the autopsy: death by asphyxiation. You know, 'cause' of death

Besides, Meyer's report final diagnosis would only need to identify an injury as prior or showing healing that would enable a time factor.

Look at it from my 'amateur' POV. How can I tell if erosion was over time or in an instant? From you telling me? C'mon, you need some more data. Just telling me things are this way or that doesn't wash.
 
I take it you now understand tissue erosion

No, I was encouraging you to jump off of moving motorcycle!

that you in your own post quoted the coroner as 'abrasion', and how this isn't 'over time' as if it took days, weeks, months, or years? That an abrasion can happen in an instant?

Clever, HOTYH. But not clever enough. I noticed that little sleight-of-word. "Abrasion" does not equal "erosion." Yes, an ABRASION can happen in an instant. I don't know of anyone who argued that.

Why was your army of doctors standing ready to declare JBR previously parentally abused, dismissed by the investigative authority?

Think about what kind of major-league screw-ups were running this case, HOTYH. That sums it up for me.

Or was McCann invited to Boulder to discuss his findings in more detail?

DING! We have a winner! He was in fact invited to Boulder to do exactly that:

In September 1997, the police department held a meeting with McCann and three other child sexual abuse experts to go over their opinions based on their review of the autopsy results.
 
You'd better re-read the autopsy: death by asphyxiation. You know, 'cause' of death

Yeah, I figured you'd say that. Notice it does not say that the garrote was the cause of death. See what I mean?

Now you're talking.

Look at it from my 'amateur' POV. How can I tell if erosion was over time or in an instant? From you telling me? C'mon, you need some more data. Just telling me things are this way or that doesn't wash.

That's actually a very good point, HOTYH. I shall think about that. In the meantime, there was something else. At their meeting, the police showed two photos side-by-side. One was of JB's vagina. The other was the vagina of a normal six-year-old. As ST wrote, "even to the uninitiated, the difference was obvious."
 
Clever, HOTYH. But not clever enough. I noticed that little sleight-of-word. "Abrasion" does not equal "erosion." Yes, an ABRASION can happen in an instant. I don't know of anyone who argued that.

Clever? Sleight of word? I'm reasonably sure you're not a doctor, and you probably don't know if abrasion equals or does not equal epethelial erosion.

It probably does equal. According to your own post, the coroner referred to the exact same area (7 o'clock) once as epithelial erosion and once again as abrasion.

From your own post:

The area of abrasion is present at approximately the 7:00 position and appears to involve the hymen and the distal right vaginal wall.

The smallest piece of tissue, from the 7:00 position of the wall/hymen, contains epithelial erosion with underlying capillary congestion

It does appear that the autopsy term 'erosion' has been erroneously construed to mean prior injury over time, in the interest of RDI to attempt to show JBR was previosly abused. In fact, the terms 'epithelial erosion' and 'abrasion' were used by the coroner to describe the same injury, an acute injury. One term is used at the microscopic level, while the other is used at the visual level.

Yes, an ABRASION can happen in an instant. I don't know of anyone who argued that.

But they never call it abrasion when they look at tissues under a microscope. They call it epithelial erosion.
 
Why did they pick JBR then, if not for publicity. Certainly not because JBR represented a classic example of anything. I mean, we don't even know what happened. There's no proof she was previously injured. Erosion could happen in one minute, there's nothing to show as fact what you've been claiming except third party opinions.

Heck there's absolute zero evidence she was previously abused by a parent, and they write a paper anyway?

Some have said she was abused by a parent others have said no such thing. Broad generalizations, well, you know what that suggests when you make such sweeping statements.

The facts of the autopsy indicate she suffered vaginal trauma, both chronic and acute. Word games don't change that fact.

Steve Thomas, a detective assigned to the case a few days after the event, suggests corporal punishment as the cause.

Statistically speaking, abuse of a sexual nature most often involves a close family member: parent, sibling, aunt, uncle, grandparent.
 
Nice try, but it would've been part of the final diagnosis if it was part of the conversation.

Meyer: "Oh BTW and off the record, my opinion is that JBR was previously chronically abused. Is it OK for me to leave that out of my report?"

Thats absurd.

Actually HOTYH, that's exactly what the autopsy report said only the report used medical terminology instead of casual language such as above.
 
Clever? Sleight of word? I'm reasonably sure you're not a doctor, and you probably don't know if abrasion equals or does not equal epethelial erosion.

True, I'm not a doctor. But I did talk to a few.

It probably does equal. According to your own post, the coroner referred to the exact same area (7 o'clock) once as epithelial erosion and once again as abrasion.

RIGHT! A new injury on top of an old one.

In fact, the terms 'epithelial erosion' and 'abrasion' were used by the coroner to describe the same injury, an acute injury.

I don't buy that for a second.
 
I take it you now understand tissue erosion, that you in your own post quoted the coroner as 'abrasion', and how this isn't 'over time' as if it took days, weeks, months, or years? That an abrasion can and does happen in an instant?

An abrasion CAN happen in an instant. But not an erosion. That takes time. Not necessarily weeks, months, etc. But it didn't happen that night.
And as far as the autopsy, in many cases, even with a homicide, a coroner will put in the report what he sees and discovers. Not necessarily how he thinks it happened. That is often left to LE. As far as the TWO causes of death (ligature strangulation and cerebrocranial trauma)- the garrote, ligature furrow and skull fracture are actually seen. The cord is obviously the cause of the furrow/strangulation. As far as the fracture, the coroner won't state what caused it if he is given nothing to test against it. He can only say what is is- blunt force trauma.
He did not write in the report what caused the vaginal erosion, only that it exists. All coroners speak aloud during the autopsy, usually they are also recording what they say. If Mayer spoke to those present about what he thought may have taken place, if it isn't something that he can prove, I doubt he'd write it. After all, he surmised digital penetration, but what something else was used? His job was to report what he found. He did.
 
Actually HOTYH, that's exactly what the autopsy report said only the report used medical terminology instead of casual language such as above.


I suggest rereading the autopsy final diagnosis, where there are MANY injuries listed to JBR's front, back, top, and bottom, yet NONE are listed as prior.

That would be beyond strange if the doctor thought prior injury was significant but never listed a single prior injury, doncha think?
 

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