nyvictoria
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Valhall!!!!!!
:applause::applause::applause::applause::applause::applause:
:applause::applause::applause::applause::applause::applause:
Ummmm...with all due respect, that looks like my spreadsheet. Analysis based on actual temps was done several months ago and appear in another thread. Perhaps we should merge them?
As for Brian B.'s memory, pings support the shovel incident being 6/18, not 6/19.
My apologies JWG! I did not know this had already been done. By all means, this should probably be added to your existing thread. I will go and try to find it now.
Again, sorry for duplicating work! I kind of go off on my own on these things because when I work through something by myself, I can get my brain around it a bit better, but I don't want to detract from anything you have already got started.
P.S. I agree with the statement on the pings and the 18th. I actually have a note in my own timeline that states this as well. This particular analysis, however, is based solely on looking at the time in the trunk. So, I guess one could assume that she did SOMETHING on the 18th, but then removed the body the following day. Maybe the 18th is when she "prepared" the body (i.e. heart stickers and duct tape).
Val,
No problem. We should merge this into the 2.6 Day thread I referred to above. Discussion certainly is worth revisiting, particularly because the ADD times out later in the afternoon on the 19th (assuming a death after 3PM on the 16th), and KC does not ping near Suburban Drive on the 19th.
Well, we should never rule out anything based on "lack of cell phone pings". If a cell phone is turned off, there will be no pings.
Isn't there a period of time (I believe from about 6 pm to 9 pm) that there is no cell phone activity (no pings) for KC on the 19th? We really can't say where she is during that period of time, can we?
Absolutely true, but remember that KC was seen by Brian mid-afternoon, not between 6 and 9 PM, and she was at the Anthony's for over an hour, backed into the garage. If she arrived at 6PM, she would run the risk of CA coming home from work soon after.
I think the way the pings and testimony worked out, KC was at Chris S. house around 6PM, and stayed to roughly 8PM on the 19th. KC was clearly at the parent's home the afternoons of the 17th, 18th, and 20th.
JWG,
Here is something else to support the 18th being the shovel day instead of the 19th.
Look at the calendar for the month of June at the bottom of this page
http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KORL/2008/6/16/MonthlyHistory.html
There had only been .18 inches of rain the 4 days preceding the 18th. And that was two days before on the 16th. Beginning on the evening of the 18th through the 21st there was significant rainfall every day. On the evening of the 18th there was over 1/4 inch of rain.
The reason I think this supports BB's account falling on the 18th instead of the 19th is that people don't typically go out and do yard work the day after a significant rainfall because the grass is usually too wet and the ground too soft. So I think most likely he was doing his yard work on the 18th, not the 19th.
JWG - food for thought, as usual! I am just curious about what effect on the rate of decomposition your 10:00 p.m on the 15th scenario would have, considering that the body would have spent approximately 18 hours indoors in the air conditioning before being put into the trunk. Obviously this is way out of my league to evaluate but I am sure that there are those of you who can!!
Here is a similar analysis showing bagging occurring on June 20 at ~1:45PM, when KC was briefly at the home:6/17/08 2:45 PM 1%Depending on whether or not one believes the time of death is the afternoon or evening of the 16th, the tolerance needs to be 25% or higher to fit the parameters.
6/17/08 12:30 PM 5%
6/17/08 10:15 AM 10%
6/17/08 7:15 AM 15%
6/17/08 3:00 AM 20%
6/16/08 9:15 PM 25%
6/16/08 5:00 PM 30%
6/16/08 1:45 PM 35%
Maybe that is reasonable? :waitasec:
I should say a few words about the tolerance. Hopefully I don't get lose too many folks - just trying to put some things in perspective. :bang:
When I speak of a tolerance value of, say, +/-some percent, I am really saying I am 95% confident :snooty: the event occurred between the first date (-some percent) and the last date (+some percent).
The following graph is a normal probability distribution. 95% of the probability lies between -2 on the graph and +2 on the graph.
In the case of the ADD time values and tolerances, I only showed you half the story. Using one example, a time of death of 6/16/08 3:30 PM and a 35% ADD tolerance, I get the following dates:6/18/08 1:36 PM (this corresponds to the -2 on the bottom axis of the graph above)In other words, if the tolerance on the ADD analysis is 35% and time of death was 6/16/08 at 3:30 PM, then I am 95% confident that the bagging occurred between 6/18/08 at 1:36 PM and 6/20/08 at 3:26 PM.
6/19/08 2:50 PM (this corresponds to the 0 on the bottom axis of the graph above)
6/20/08 3:26 PM (this corresponds to the 2 on the bottom axis of the graph above)
3:45PM on the 18th and 1:45PM on the 20th are the two most likely times I believe a bagging occurred based on:
Both times fall within the range of times given by the 95% confidence interval. Interestingly, they fall about the same distance on either side of the midpoint, meaning the probability the bagging occurred on either date / time is about the same. :doh: Also, while it is possible the bagging occurred at either time, the likelihood is not very high. The highest likelihood is dead center - June 19 at 2:50 PM. :banghead:
- KC obtaining the various bags from the home,
- KC trying to hide what she was doing by backing into the Anthony garage,
- times KC was at the Anthony home based on cell pings, and
- KC behavior - i.e., I don't believe she would get the bags with the intention of doing the bagging elsewhere at a later time.
:waitasec: June 18 becomes far more likely and June 20 far less likely if the time of death becomes earlier and earlier on the 16th.
:waitasec: June 20 becomes far more likely and June 18 far less likely if the time of death becomes later and later on the 16th.
(Thank you Captain Obvious :takeabow
But the real point here (thank-you for those of you that have survived with me thus far :thumb is that if you agree the bagging had to happen on the 18th or 20th at the Anthony home, then it is much more likely that Caylee died in the early morning of the 16th or some time during the evening of the 16th than it is she died mid-afternoon on the 16th.
I emphasize evening above because I'm starting to think (contrary to a post I made yesterday:bang that the evening of the 16th is when she died.
Hi JWG--great posts! I've been out of the country for 2 weeks on complete Caylee withdrawal, but didn't we figure out that George had the day off on the 20th? If so, maybe the 20th is not a likely bag day.
Tolerance is good. We should all be more tolerant. I whole-heartedly agree. Can't get enough tolerance. Mo' tolerance.I should say a few words about the tolerance.
That would make them INtolerant, wouldn't it. :waitasec:Hopefully I don't get lose too many folks - just trying to put some things in perspective. :bang:
ropeller:(thank-you for those of you that have survived with me thus far :thumb