Nova
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Nova - Do you have any idea what happens if the appeals court says the proponents don't have standing to appeal? Would that mean Judge Walker's ruling would immediately go into effect? Do you think they will receive standing to appeal? If they do not receive standing to appeal, would it still go to the Supreme Court?
Judge Walker's ruling was so clear cut, I don't see how it could be overturned. Yet, I'm terribly afraid someone will find a way. I felt so sure the appeals court wouldn't issue a stay, but it makes sense that they would want to protect those who wish to marry from any back and forth rulings. It's disheartening nonetheless.
I really don't know. And even my appellate-lawyer friend (in fairness, she does state appeals and for juvenile court) isn't sure. I would assume that if the Ninth Circuit rules that the pro-Prop 8 folks have no standing, that, too, would be appealed to SCOTUS.
I also assume (but don't really know) that sooner or later, somebody is going to claim to speak on behalf of those who voted for Prop 8, arguing that they were disenfranchised when their vote was overturned.
By the time this all gets to SCOTUS, who knows? Let's remember that by 5 to 4, the Court ruled in Bush v. Gore that the Florida recount (a matter that had previously been considered a matter of state's rights) violated George H. Bush's civil rights! The same 5 majority voters had traditionally claimed to be pro-state's rights and tended to vote against civil rights legislation when it benefited actual minorities.
So we know that some of the conservative justices are willing to tie their principles in knots in order to achieve the ruling they want...
On the bright side, half the court has changed since 2000 and once they are on the bench, justices don't always vote the way their political affiliations might lead us to expect.
After all, Judge Turner was a Reagan/Bush-I appointee.
Personally, I don't see any argument for banning same-sex marriage (except that it's a new idea and people are still getting used to it). But I suspect the conservative argument will be that by allowing gays to marry, the institution of civil marriage is somehow cheapened and therefore all heterosexual marriages become devalued. Turner was appropriately scathing on that subject.