what are your thoughts now? *re-re-poll*

redheadedgal said:

and you believe both madeleine mccann and jonbenet met their fates by way of an intruder too, correct?

let's look at the probability of all three of them being taken by an intruder:

stats on child abduction:

1) Research shows that of the 58,000 non-family abductions each year 63% involved a friend, long-term acquaintaince, neighbor, caretaker, baby sitter or person of authority; only 37% involved a stranger (aka intruder)

2) Each year there are about 3,000 to 5,000 non-family abductions reported to police, most of which are short term sexually-motivated cases. About 200 to 300 of these cases, or 6%, make up the most serious cases where the child was murdered, ransomed or taken with the intent to keep

http://www.infoline.org/InformationL...ntion%20fj.asp

(taken from NCMEC and the US Dept. of Justice)


the math: http://www.mathgoodies.com/lessons/v...nt_events.html

P= probability all three crimes were committed by an intruder

P of independent events = P(event a: JB "abducted"/intruder) x P(event b: MM abducted/intruder) x P(event c: LI abducted/intruder)

P= P(.37) x P(.37) x P(.37)

P= .0506

therefore, there is a 5% chance all three crimes were committed by an intruder.

hmmm.

(i believe my theory and math is correct... but someone please tell me if i've erred -- thanks)


now, if we take it one step further and use the second stat i've included above-- the one for "the most serious cases where the child was murdered, ransomed or taken with the intent to keep**" as seems to be the case for JB, MM and LI, where an intruder is involved in only 6% of these cases (**and so far each of the three cases mentioned in this post meet this criteria imo w/ both MM and LI being classified under "intent to keep" for this exercise):

P of independent events = P(event a: JB murdered/ransomed/intruder) x P(event b: MM abducted/intruder) x P(event c: LI abducted/intruder)

P= (.06) x (.06) x (.06)

P= 0.000216

therefore, a less than one percent chance exists that all three crimes were committed by an intruder who desired to murder, ransom or keep the child.


***and yes i know the MM crime occurred in portugal and not the US but i couldn't find stats for the country nor do i believe it would skew/change the results too much

Click to expand...

redheadedgal said:

and you believe both madeleine mccann and jonbenet met their fates by way of an intruder too, correct?

let's look at the probability of all three of them being taken by an intruder:

stats on child abduction:

1) Research shows that of the 58,000 non-family abductions each year 63% involved a friend, long-term acquaintaince, neighbor, caretaker, baby sitter or person of authority; only 37% involved a stranger (aka intruder)

2) Each year there are about 3,000 to 5,000 non-family abductions reported to police, most of which are short term sexually-motivated cases. About 200 to 300 of these cases, or 6%, make up the most serious cases where the child was murdered, ransomed or taken with the intent to keep

http://www.infoline.org/InformationL...ntion%20fj.asp

(taken from NCMEC and the US Dept. of Justice)


the math: http://www.mathgoodies.com/lessons/v...nt_events.html

P= probability all three crimes were committed by an intruder

P of independent events = P(event a: JB "abducted"/intruder) x P(event b: MM abducted/intruder) x P(event c: LI abducted/intruder)

P= P(.37) x P(.37) x P(.37)

P= .0506

therefore, there is a 5% chance all three crimes were committed by an intruder.

hmmm.

(i believe my theory and math is correct... but someone please tell me if i've erred -- thanks)


now, if we take it one step further and use the second stat i've included above-- the one for "the most serious cases where the child was murdered, ransomed or taken with the intent to keep**" as seems to be the case for JB, MM and LI, where an intruder is involved in only 6% of these cases (**and so far each of the three cases mentioned in this post meet this criteria imo w/ both MM and LI being classified under "intent to keep" for this exercise):

P of independent events = P(event a: JB murdered/ransomed/intruder) x P(event b: MM abducted/intruder) x P(event c: LI abducted/intruder)

P= (.06) x (.06) x (.06)

P= 0.000216

therefore, a less than one percent chance exists that all three crimes were committed by an intruder who desired to murder, ransom or keep the child.


***and yes i know the MM crime occurred in portugal and not the US but i couldn't find stats for the country nor do i believe it would skew/change the results too much

Click to expand...

redheadedgal said:

and you believe both madeleine mccann and jonbenet met their fates by way of an intruder too, correct?

let's look at the probability of all three of them being taken by an intruder:

stats on child abduction:

1) Research shows that of the 58,000 non-family abductions each year 63% involved a friend, long-term acquaintaince, neighbor, caretaker, baby sitter or person of authority; only 37% involved a stranger (aka intruder)

2) Each year there are about 3,000 to 5,000 non-family abductions reported to police, most of which are short term sexually-motivated cases. About 200 to 300 of these cases, or 6%, make up the most serious cases where the child was murdered, ransomed or taken with the intent to keep

http://www.infoline.org/InformationL...ntion%20fj.asp

(taken from NCMEC and the US Dept. of Justice)


the math: http://www.mathgoodies.com/lessons/v...nt_events.html

P= probability all three crimes were committed by an intruder

P of independent events = P(event a: JB "abducted"/intruder) x P(event b: MM abducted/intruder) x P(event c: LI abducted/intruder)

P= P(.37) x P(.37) x P(.37)

P= .0506

therefore, there is a 5% chance all three crimes were committed by an intruder.

hmmm.

(i believe my theory and math is correct... but someone please tell me if i've erred -- thanks)


now, if we take it one step further and use the second stat i've included above-- the one for "the most serious cases where the child was murdered, ransomed or taken with the intent to keep**" as seems to be the case for JB, MM and LI, where an intruder is involved in only 6% of these cases (**and so far each of the three cases mentioned in this post meet this criteria imo w/ both MM and LI being classified under "intent to keep" for this exercise):

P of independent events = P(event a: JB murdered/ransomed/intruder) x P(event b: MM abducted/intruder) x P(event c: LI abducted/intruder)

P= (.06) x (.06) x (.06)

P= 0.000216

therefore, a less than one percent chance exists that all three crimes were committed by an intruder who desired to murder, ransom or keep the child.


***and yes i know the MM crime occurred in portugal and not the US but i couldn't find stats for the country nor do i believe it would skew/change the results too much

Click to expand...

redheadedgal said:

you first comment makes no sense. the math however makes perfect sense if you're willing to see it...

your second comment? i don't see any relevance to what i posted.

and yes, statisitcs matter b/c they help determine which possibiliites are most likely. this is why NCMEC, the FBI, the DOJ etc. keep them.

in a nutshell, the chance that each of these three girls being taken by an intruder is just infintisimally small. and that is just oh so very sad.

Click to expand...

redheadedgal said:

and you believe both madeleine mccann and jonbenet met their fates by way of an intruder too, correct?

let's look at the probability of all three of them being taken by an intruder:

stats on child abduction:

1) Research shows that of the 58,000 non-family abductions each year 63% involved a friend, long-term acquaintaince, neighbor, caretaker, baby sitter or person of authority; only 37% involved a stranger (aka intruder)

2) Each year there are about 3,000 to 5,000 non-family abductions reported to police, most of which are short term sexually-motivated cases. About 200 to 300 of these cases, or 6%, make up the most serious cases where the child was murdered, ransomed or taken with the intent to keep

http://www.infoline.org/InformationL...ntion%20fj.asp

(taken from NCMEC and the US Dept. of Justice)


the math: http://www.mathgoodies.com/lessons/v...nt_events.html

P= probability all three crimes were committed by an intruder

P of independent events = P(event a: JB "abducted"/intruder) x P(event b: MM abducted/intruder) x P(event c: LI abducted/intruder)

P= P(.37) x P(.37) x P(.37)

P= .0506

therefore, there is a 5% chance all three crimes were committed by an intruder.

hmmm.

(i believe my theory and math is correct... but someone please tell me if i've erred -- thanks)


now, if we take it one step further and use the second stat i've included above-- the one for "the most serious cases where the child was murdered, ransomed or taken with the intent to keep**" as seems to be the case for JB, MM and LI, where an intruder is involved in only 6% of these cases (**and so far each of the three cases mentioned in this post meet this criteria imo w/ both MM and LI being classified under "intent to keep" for this exercise):

P of independent events = P(event a: JB murdered/ransomed/intruder) x P(event b: MM abducted/intruder) x P(event c: LI abducted/intruder)

P= (.06) x (.06) x (.06)

P= 0.000216

therefore, a less than one percent chance exists that all three crimes were committed by an intruder who desired to murder, ransom or keep the child.


***and yes i know the MM crime occurred in portugal and not the US but i couldn't find stats for the country nor do i believe it would skew/change the results too much

Click to expand...