I'm kind of leaning now to may be she left Caylee in the trunk and was hoping the car would be stolen..I hadn't seen the purse was left there on the seat...if that had happened she could have blamed car jackers and if she was lucky and the car had been stolen right when she left it...the TOD might have matched up..IF somebody had stolen the car, but they didn't. So, she had to go back to her parents house and get the shovel...
I think that would/could put the death either right around the 24th or a couple days earlier...
I would hope that LE are going to be able to reconstruct where she was and what she did from the 15th to the 24th to get a reasonable idea of whether Caylee was alive during any of this time or not...
Not sure why the ex bf would lie, but he could be mistaken, or it could be correct, and then something happened that very day or the next day.
Hope this makes sense...it might not, not sure it matches up with the timing on the car being abandoned and the shovel being borrowed....