IN - Lauren Spierer, 20, Bloomington, 03 June 2011 - #22

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If It was as simple as she ODed and they panicked . someone would have said something and/or someone would called in a tip on where to find her remains by now .If it was that simple and the fact no one has done that screams that something more sinister happed
 
How do we know that without seing the video .Untill the public views this tape you can't say for sure that it wouldn't help maybe someone in the public would see something or someone that would help with the investigation

Exactly. Tho it's not the same medium (text vs video), LE had Ted Kaczynski's manifesto and other various writings for years before they finally released them to the public--and then, no doubt to LE's surprise, that's what broke that case.

More information being examined by more people cannot be a bad thing.
 
If It was as simple as she ODed and they panicked . someone would have said something and/or someone would called in a tip on where to find her remains by now .If it was that simple and the fact no one has done that screams that something more sinister happed

The thing about this is that it relies on there being more than 1 POI who witnessed or otherwise is in possession of the facts.

If the seemingly dominant theory is correct, LS leaves CR/MB behind and journeys to JR's place solo. And if whatever happened in fact happened at JR's--who else is there to speak to the actual truth of the events?

JR leaves Bloomington for Michigan that same day and then lawyers up and is apparently now in Europe--unlikely he ends up in the same room with the others around this case and somehow spills the beans on himself.

But I agree we are getting to the point where some sort of group-wide conspiracy to cover something up becomes far less plausible. And once school starts up again, and if nothing/no one reveals anything at that point...
 
There is only one real reason to get rid of a body if you think about it and thats because you knew if it were found thier may be evidence on or in her body that can place it back to the perp. Cause if it were just a OD what would they care its not like they can tell who sold her the drugs not only that but the dealers would want her found if it was innocent that way the police would take the heat off the dealers and they can go back to selling drugs.
 
I still don't think we have an entirely clear picture of how well everyone knew each other and how friendly everyone was. I know HT has been valuable, but in some cases she isn't quite the primary source for information and her interpretation of relationships is just that-her interpretation.

Good point to keep in mind, as we grasp for any solid ground in this case. Sometimes it seems developing a theory based on what anyone in this case has said is almost no better than pedrosmom's theory.

e.g., in prior threads, I floated a couple of my more "out there" theories, but tried to base them on what has been reported as LS's conduct/statements.

1. that LS was delineating her recreational pharmaceutical consumption at Kilroy's that night.

this tidbit led me to speculate that perhaps there was another substance (beyond the seemingly acknowledged alcohol/cocaine/xanax), b/c often in my experience individuals experiencing something for the first time like to catalogue all they've done before--esp if it was that night. So I profferred ketamine into the mix as a potential additional, new to LS substance that might explain some aspects of her behavior etc that night.

2. the other statement [ on the back of which I floated a far thinner and dubious theory] is:

LS asked MB if he wanted to party with her that night--this would've been after LS/CR returned to 5 North post-Kilroy's.


Two aspects to it:

Who reported this statement? MB self-reported it? DId he do so b/c it was made in front of CR? Or did he do so to perhaps corroborate/push the investigation toward an OD theory?

Second, presuming it's true, this casts MB in perhaps a more significant light than simply MB's roommate.

But, as I said, basing a theory on anything anyone involved has said is at best a dicey proposition.

What about the Kilroy patrons that night? they should be able to provide more info than we've gotten so far from them.
 
There is only one real reason to get rid of a body if you think about it and thats because you knew if it were found thier may be evidence on or in her body that can place it back to the perp. Cause if it were just a OD what would they care its not like they can tell who sold her the drugs not only that but the dealers would want her found if it was innocent that way the police would take the heat off the dealers and they can go back to selling drugs.

Normally that might be true but this was a bunch of wasted college kids. They weren't thinking straight.

I think it is likely that:
she wandered off in a drug and alchol haze
she was abducted
she OD'd and her friends hid her body
her boyfriend got jealous and killed her

Can you tell I'm so confused I can believe anything! If I were smart I would say I have these scenarios to offer but I'm honest, not smart , I am totally clueless...........:waitasec:
 
Ha ha-I really feel like if anyone is arrested tomorrow I would not be shocked. Well, shocked that an arrest was made out of nowhere, but not by who it is. JR, CR, JW, random stranger, some of the minor players, any combination of the above and I would be like...yes, we should have known. It feels like several scenarios actually fit where I don't feel that way in other cases :waitasec:


Who did report the MB party comment? Was it MB or was it HT saying MB did?
 
Normally that might be true but this was a bunch of wasted college kids. They weren't thinking straight.

I think it is likely that:
she wandered off in a drug and alchol haze
she was abducted
she OD'd and her friends hid her body
her boyfriend got jealous and killed her


I think the investigators need to work every plausible, reasonable angle. Because if this ends up at trial a "circumstantial" case, the defense's first line of defense is "did you look at other potential perps?"

From the little I've heard about the investigation (interviewing RSO's, checking out the Waffle House angle, etc) it seems like the investigators are doing just that.

They might be waiting on the start of the Fall semester to see who returns and to see if anyone talks (in a meaningful way). And if there's nothing, they might move on a primary POI and then proceed from there--interviewing someone like HT et al while their primary POI has never been arrested or charged wtih anything is one thing.

Following up those interviews once you've arrested and charged a POI is another reality.
 
Ha ha-I really feel like if anyone is arrested tomorrow I would not be shocked. Well, shocked that an arrest was made out of nowhere, but not by who it is. JR, CR, JW, random stranger, some of the minor players, any combination of the above and I would be like...yes, we should have known. It feels like several scenarios actually fit where I don't feel that way in other cases :waitasec:


Who did report the MB party comment? Was it MB or was it HT saying MB did?

I'm not sure.

If that's your little dog he/she looks like mine only darker. Everytime I see your's I think of mine....
 
Who did report the MB party comment? Was it MB or was it HT saying MB did?

v good question. i have no idea whether it came first person from MB or second-hand via HT. i just recall reading it somewhere along the way.

Either way, it had to originate with MB? Seems like a significant comment, CR was out of commission (reportedly, ha, who knows?), but JR was right next door, but then she first asks MB if he wants to party and it'd be just the two of them?

that made me think that MB might've had a greater role in all of this than what it seemed at first blush. Specifically, that he might've been the actual connection for their party fun. I think that's since been shot down, but I was trying to marry LS's alleged request to party with MB to the situation/person.
 
The longer this goes on, the more I think this was a stranger abduction. The police have searched residences, interviewed the POI, they have nothing.

My scenario... LS was drugged and wandering around late at night, someone offered to "give her a ride." Maybe intent was rape, maybe more drugs and she OD'ed? That person panicked, and wouldn't have much of an explanation of being with her.
 
Yes, it is my dog! :)

I am curious to see how they proceed. I don't think they want a cold case on their hands, but where do they go or what do they do if nothing concrete enough for an arrest shows up?

Were the landfill searches ever actually done?
 
The longer this goes on, the more I think this was a stranger abduction. The police have searched residences, interviewed the POI, they have nothing.

My scenario... LS was drugged and wandering around late at night, someone offered to "give her a ride." Maybe intent was rape, maybe more drugs and she OD'ed? That person panicked, and wouldn't have much of an explanation of being with her.


LS is(was?) a New Yorker who had lived in Israel for a time. I doubt she'd do anything other than run the other way as fast as possible should a stranger roll up at 4:30 am and proffer a lift.

When I first started reading about this case, my thinking was that she met up with the dealer(s) who supplied JR/CR/MB/et al with their fun and that they are responsible for whatever happened to LS and that the guys lawyered up and zipped up because of fear of LE prosecution and dealer retribution.

the random thing, while entirely possible, seems implausible, given the circumstances/time-frame.

Tho I also think that if the scenario is that LS was fiending for more fun, and JR contacted some sort of dealer and then LS went out to meet this dealer to get more fun and was never seen again, JR (and whomever's) attorney's would've made that pellucidly clear to the investigators asap. Which is why I've gone off the 3rd party dealer did it theory.
 
LS is(was?) a New Yorker who had lived in Israel for a time. I doubt she'd do anything other than run the other way as fast as possible should a stranger roll up at 4:30 am and proffer a lift.

When I first started reading about this case, my thinking was that she met up with the dealer(s) who supplied JR/CR/MB/et al with their fun and that they are responsible for whatever happened to LS and that the guys lawyered up and zipped up because of fear of LE prosecution and dealer retribution.

the random thing, while entirely possible, seems implausible, given the circumstances/time-frame.

Tho I also think that if the scenario is that LS was fiending for more fun, and JR contacted some sort of dealer and then LS went out to meet this dealer to get more fun and was never seen again, JR (and whomever's) attorney's would've made that pellucidly clear to the investigators asap. Which is why I've gone off the 3rd party dealer did it theory.

She wasn't in NY or Israel, she was in Bloomington, and quite possibly intoxicated on multiple substances. She wouldn't have been in a frame-of-mind to necessarily run, especially if the stranger seemed like a fellow college student trying to help out.

Not sure what you mean by the latter... if JR's lawyer would have squealed on the dealer, we'd have heard of another POI by now, and if the police suspected that the students weren't directly involved but were covering up someone's involvement because they were scared of prosecution, they'd almost certainly cut a deal to get them talking.
 
Yes, it is my dog! :)

I am curious to see how they proceed. I don't think they want a cold case on their hands, but where do they go or what do they do if nothing concrete enough for an arrest shows up?


Like Sherlock Holmes always said, once you've eliminated every other possibility, whatever remains--however (im)plausible (ha)--must be the answer.

My guess is that Indiana's LE is, hopefully, doing the legwork to eliminate other theories of the case.

If I were the Spierer family, I'd spring for a PI to work the case in Michigan, around the area where JR and his family are from.

Don't immediately start searching the myriad lakes and bodies of water around that area (the HBO series 'Hung' is filmed not far from JR's Michigan residence, despite being portrayed as being "Downriver"). Circulate, mingle, drink at spots that JR and his family/friends might frequent, and just listen, see what's up.

Maybe at some point, isolate someone who knew/knows JR very well and try to pump them for info about where JR and his buddies liked to hang out and drink.

Which lakes does JR know best?

You might find that you discover info that exonerates JR completely. But, if you don't, sometime soon you need to start searching lakes around there. And then keep an eye on JR and his best buddies up there and how they react to the lake searches.
 
Oh, I agree that we'd have heard of another POI by now were the 3rd party dealer theory valid. That we haven't has made me more or less abandon it.

re: LS's reactions to some stranger approaching her that time of night, in that state.

Paranoia is probably the most prominent trait of someone geeked to the gills on yayo. [That could explain LS leaving JR's on her own that night...if that proves to be the case]

Tho if we run with the idea of a "mystery substance" ingested by LS that night and that substance falls under the empathogen class of narcotics [ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Empathogen-entactogen ], LS might well have been friendly with any and everyone at that point.

Course, it's highly unlikely she leaves 5 North in that state. And if JR or whomever was aware that she was in such an altered, vulnerable state...jeez. Bad friends.



She wasn't in NY or Israel, she was in Bloomington, and quite possibly intoxicated on multiple substances. She wouldn't have been in a frame-of-mind to necessarily run, especially if the stranger seemed like a fellow college student trying to help out.

Not sure what you mean by the latter... if JR's lawyer would have squealed on the dealer, we'd have heard of another POI by now, and if the police suspected that the students weren't directly involved but were covering up someone's involvement because they were scared of prosecution, they'd almost certainly cut a deal to get them talking.
 
I like the PI suggestion-I wonder if the family will or would look into something like that. Not necessarily to replace, but just supplement what LE is doing.

I just cannot get 100% behind stranger abduction because something feels off about the people we do know. Well, that and the window of time and cameras make it seem a bit less likely to me.

Not scientific by any means and maybe even dead wrong. I would just love to have a truth serum I could force everyone who saw her that night (ESPECIALLY JW, CR, and JR) to take. I don't really trust lie detector tests and especially ones set up by a POI's lawyer.
 
Alot of memory loss in this case. Hypnotize the failing brains. Let's set up lie detector tests to varify details. See who objects and see who is willing.

Maybe the memory loss is not total, but whatever remains is not reliable. The fragments of memory, combined with drug-induced hallucinations, and critical pieces blacked out, may not make any sense. Like recalling a bad dream, maybe the sequence of the events is gone, and only a few images out of context remain.
 
Normally that might be true but this was a bunch of wasted college kids. They weren't thinking straight.

I think it is likely that:
she wandered off in a drug and alchol haze
she was abducted
she OD'd and her friends hid her body
her boyfriend got jealous and killed her

Can you tell I'm so confused I can believe anything! If I were smart I would say I have these scenarios to offer but I'm honest, not smart , I am totally clueless...........:waitasec:

We don't have any solid evidence that LS or the others were actually wasted. The elevator stumble story was only someone's description of what they had seen on a security tape.

Now very unlikely that LS, CR or JR were sober; but still we don't have any proof that they had consumed any elaborate cocktails of illegal narcotics. We just don't have any hard facts.

The rumor about LS's ID being found north of 11th street would seem to imply a stranger abduction; but again we have no confirmation.

Perhaps we need to know more about the events that preceded LS's disappearance.
 
If some of these kids come back, perhaps they will party some night and their tongues will loosen and they will confide to someone what happened. We can only hope.

bold mine... I think you can count on THAT! :floorlaugh:
 
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